First thoughts: Iraq is back
Posted: Tuesday, July 15, 2008 9:09 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Iraq is back…: With the press mesmerized by shiny metal objects like the New Yorker’s controversial magazine cover or what Jesse Jackson said while wearing a hot mic, Obama today turns the focus back to one of the central issues of this presidential election when he delivers a major speech in DC on Iraq and Afghanistan. It comes right before the Illinois senator embarks on an international trip that will take him to Iraq and Afghanistan. And it comes pegged to a new Washington Post/ABC poll on Iraq that’s a mixed bag for the two presidential candidates. The good news for McCain (and bad news for Obama): 50% say they support Obama’s timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, while 49% oppose it. What’s more, by a 47%-45% margin, respondents trust McCain more to handle Iraq, and 72% say McCain would be a good commander-in-chief for the military versus just 48% who say the same of Obama. Essentially, if this election were turning on the issue of Iraq or the commander-in-chief question, it would be nearly impossible to predict who would come out on top. The bad news for McCain (and good news for Obama): Iraq is no longer the public’s top concern; the economy is. In addition, the poll finds that a whopping 63% say the Iraq war hasn’t been worth fighting. And while just 34% believe that the US must win in Iraq for the broader war on terror to be successful, 51% say that of Afghanistan.
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VIDEO: Author Richard Clarke discusses Barack Obama's plan to redeploy U.S. troops, pressing Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security and stability.
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… And so is Afghanistan: So perhaps it’s not surprising then that Obama also will use today’s speech to shift the war debate and troop-level chatter from Iraq to Afghanistan. “It is unacceptable that almost seven years after nearly 3,000 Americans were killed on our soil, the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 are still at large,” Obama is expected to say, according to excerpts released by the campaign. “Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahari are recording messages to their followers and plotting more terror. The Taliban controls parts of Afghanistan… And yet today, we have five times more troops in Iraq than Afghanistan.” More: “Sen. McCain said -- just months ago -- that ‘Afghanistan is not in trouble because of our diversion to Iraq.’ I could not disagree more. Our troops and our NATO allies are performing heroically in Afghanistan, but I have argued for years that we lack the resources to finish the job because of our commitment to Iraq. That’s what the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier this month. And that’s why, as president, I will make the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban the top priority that it should be. This is a war that we have to win.”
*** Perhaps it’s better to announce your plans after you visit: Meanwhile, at his town hall in New Mexico today, McCain will respond to Obama’s Iraq-Afghanistan speech by arguing that his Democratic opponent is reformulating his policies BEFORE his trip. “Sen. Obama is departing soon on a trip abroad that will include a fact-finding mission to Iraq and Afghanistan. And I note that he is speaking today about his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before he has even left, before he has talked to Gen. Petraeus, before he has seen the progress in Iraq, and before he has set foot in Afghanistan for the first time,” he is expected to say. “In my experience, fact-finding missions usually work best the other way around: first you assess the facts on the ground, then you present a new strategy." Of course, critics might point to McCain’s own stroll through a Baghdad market in 2007 -- which he said was proof of progress in Iraq, but where he was protected by 100 US soldiers, Apache helicopters, and a bulletproof vest -- as evidence that he wasn’t exactly assessing the facts on the ground there, either. Still, the facts on the ground have benefited McCain now and Obama needs to be careful that he isn't looking too much like an average politician who will say whatever he has to, to get elected.
*** Baseball metaphor time: Last night during the home run derby at the All-Star festivities at Yankee Stadium, Josh Hamilton put on quite the show -- it was jaw-dropping how many balls he hit out of the ballpark. And yet, he didn't win the derby. Because when it came time to connect when it counted, Hamilton didn't come through. At times Hamilton looked unbeatable -- like he couldn't be touched -- and started to try and coast to victory. Just sayin...
VIDEO: A Hardball panel ranks the top three choices for the Republican and Democrat vice presidential candidate.
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I wouldn’t kid you if I didn’t love you: At a fundraiser in New Mexico last night, McCain cracked this joke at Romney’s expense: “I’m appreciative every time I see Mitt on television on my behalf. He does a better job for me than he did for himself as a matter of fact.” Bada bing. If McCain can start joking about someone, you know they've made it into his mental inner circle. Romney may very well be higher on the short list than anyone realizes. The biggest roadblock for many in picturing a McCain-Romney ticket is McCain getting over his personal reservations about him. But joking about him is a start.
*** Peach State primary: For Democrats to reach the difficult -- yet potentially attainable -- goal of having a filibuster-proof 60 Senate seats, they’re going to have win contests beyond current top targets such as Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Colorado. They’ll have to put other states in play like Kentucky or Kansas or Georgia -- where five Democrats duke it out in a primary today for the right to face incumbent GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The DSCC’s preferred candidate is 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Martin, but also worth watching are DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, and environmental engineer Rand Knight. Observers expect no candidate to clear the 50% threshold to avoid a run off. Jones has attempted to attach himself to the hip of Obama, literally. How? He photo-shopped himself in with Obama at a rally for a direct mail piece. We'll see if this low-attention race will turn on whether these guys are proving a connection to Obama. As for Chambliss, remember that no first-term senator is ever totally safe. Six years is a long time, particularly for that first re-election bid.
*** Also in Georgia today…: As the Washington Post notes, Georgia John Lewis -- the civil-rights icon who endorsed Clinton during the primaries then later announced he would cast his superdelegate vote for Obama after the Illinois senator’s win in Georgia -- is receiving a primary challenge. “Today, Lewis faces his first primary challengers since 1992, a pair of candidates who are promoting the ‘change’ mantra of Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign and have organized their campaigns around a single, not-so-subtle message: Lewis's support for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) over Obama in the presidential primary.”
*** On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Albuquerque, NM. Obama, in DC, gives a major policy speech on Iraq.
*** And heads up: Bush will hold a White House press conference at 10:20 am ET.
Countdown to Dem convention: 41 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 48 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 112 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 189 days
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