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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama up in Wash Post/ABC poll

Posted: Tuesday, July 15, 2008 6:10 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
The new Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama leading McCain by eight points (50%-42%) among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama's lead is three (49%-46%), and among all adults, Obama's lead is 12 points (51%-39%) -- suggesting that the higher the turnout, the better for Obama.

The Washington Post writes that "Obama holds his biggest advantage of the campaign as the candidate best prepared to fix the nation's ailing economy, but lingering concerns about his readiness to handle international crises are keeping the race close... Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said Obama's level of experience would hamper his ability to serve effectively as president; fewer, 40 percent, said it would help. And asked whether he would make a good commander in chief, 48 percent said yes. While 56 percent said Obama knows enough about world affairs to be a good president, more, 72 percent, said so about McCain."

On the plus side for Obama: "Asked whom they trust more to handle the economy, 54 percent of those surveyed named Obama; just 35 percent cited McCain. Obama's 19-point advantage on the economy is his largest of the campaign. He also holds double-digit leads on dealing with the federal budget deficit and on immigration. On social issues such as abortion and gay civil unions, 56 percent prefer Obama, 32 percent McCain."

Given these numbers, it's perhaps no surprise now that Obama is heading to the Middle East and Europe.

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A VISION FOR THE FUTURE NOT fond memories of a distant make belive past is what is needed.
Yeh!

I knew that once Fruedian F. Phil Gramm's..... ('f' for foreclosure-nice one MSierra).... 'mental recession' comment had a chance to settle in on the masses, Obama would get a bump!

I hope the 'New Yorker' cover doesn't send us back down the roller coaster in a few days. But for now, today has been great! Thank you Dear Lord!
Wow Mark -

Given these numbers, it's perhaps no surprise now that Obama is heading to the Middle East and Europe.
****************************************************

He knew these numbers were going to come out before he even planned the trip?  And you caught him at it.
Great job.

Obama knows more about modern foreign policy than McCain. Pre-1994 foreign policy..well that is still up in the air.

All the media needs to do to change this poll is advertise Mccain's constant blunders concerning foreign policy knowledge.
This election is over.  Even the most vicious 527 attack on Obama will not succeed because it will be seen for exactly what it is.  A desparate smear by an old, forgetful, angry, near-demented, uninspiring and boring excuse for a Republican nominee.  McCain DOES EQUAL Bush - in policy, leadership ability, and vision. The Republicans are killing themselves over their nominee.  If they had adopted the Democrats proportional awarding of States instead of winner-take-all, there would have been a longer sorting out period to pick someone other than McSame.

Oama has far more uncommitted voters to pick up until November than McCain does.  Everyone who will be supporting McCain has already done so.  Obama's current supporters are far more committed to him than McCains are to him.

Obama/Kaine is unstoppable and will gather more than 305 electoral votes!
Obama is also has a 9 point lead in the new quinnipac poll.
Okay Obamaites, this is where you run around saying what great news this is. Then when the polls tighten again, they mean nothing.
While 56 percent said Obama knows enough about world affairs to be a good president, more, 72 percent, said so about McCain."

Apparently 72% of people surveyed also think that Chezklovkia is a country.  

This is why we need more money for schools.  
Obama's lead is 12 points (51%-39%) -- suggesting that the higher the turnout, the better for Obama.

Let's hope we have great weather in november!  Bush might try to raise gas prices even further so people can't afford to drive to the polls.
I hope these numbers hold and increase as the election draws closer.  I literally get a knot in my stomach when I consider the possibility of 4 or God forbid 8 more years of Republican policies.  All of the younger people who have supported Obama during the primaries have to remain just as committed during the general and keep that fire burning and the excitement growing, it isn't a given, I hope we can all remember that, otherwise we may wake up on THanksgiving morning this November with much less to be thankful for.
I'm amazed at the support I'm seeing for Senator Obama. He's doing great in the swing states; some red states he's picking up ground. Now it seems Senator McCain is going to have to campaign in his own state.

I wonder what will become of Florida with the drilling. I think this issue could very well give the state to Obama as well. And they did vote for Gore. Wexler I'm sure will campaign his backside off.

Their economy is in really tough tough shape and as was said yesterday, democratic registration is really picking up steam down there.

It's not all about Michigan Ohio & PA. These polls are telling us that everyone all across this country are just plain tired.

United we stand for change.

P.S. - Don't forget - Karl Rove & co-horts are behind the curtain at all times pushing buttons. They don't know how to govern - none of them do - nor do they particularly want to - they just take joy out of kicking anyone to the ground to win an election.

No rules as far as they are concerned. They would never win otherwise. And they know it.
"more, 72 percent, said so about McCain"

This brings to mind several words...

Sunni...

Shia...

Cigarettes...

Bombs...

Czechslavakia...

Ya, he has the real world experience...sure...

(Yes, that sarcasm)
A vote for McCain is a vote to continue the policies of the present administration. You know what you get with him. Obama has to make it clear what he is offering.
I just cannot believe that people think McCain would be a better commander in chief when we all know he wants war with Iran and has no ability in him to help broker peast between Israel/Palestine/Hezbollah etc.  That I am sure is why Clark said that being a POW and being in the military does NOT make one more qualified to be president.  I think McCain wants to keep troops in Iraq against Iraq's own wishes and wants more troops for Afghanistan.  The question is where is he going to get them?  Do you really think the 3rd tour soldier in Iraq wants to now go to Afghanistan?  And dont forget, we need some troops on standby in case something goes awry in Czechoslovakia
This seems much like the Newsweek poll from a few weeks ago.  Actually, McCain and obama are virtually tied at this point, with obama's negatives steadily rising.  You also have the articles published showing that the Democrats on the Hill are becoming disenchanted with obama, primarily due to his arrogance.  He is alienating the far left wingnuts who have hijacked my party with his rapid flip-flops to the center.  The true Democrats (myself included), are mounting efforts across the country in an effort to take back our party, even if it means electing Senator McCain in November.

McCain2008/Clinton2012
Senator Obama, has the leadership to serve our country and also worldwide.  With his leadership and a very competent and loyal staff with advisors along his side he will bring our Nation back to what it should be and a well respected Nation by the entire world.  It is his time, it is our nations time and the worlds time for peace and change.
It will be different tomorrow and MSM will be hitting with the negative campaign against the Obama camp. For them to feel to provide a balanced coverage they will have to report something in favor of Obama. But they will water any positive news for Obama to shelter McCain. I got my eye on yowse.
As time passes, more people are beginning to learn about the policies and positions of Seator Obama. preconceptions are disappearing and the numbers get better and better.

Come September when people really begin to focus on the election Obama's lead can only increase.


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