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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The general: Three new polls

Posted: Wednesday, July 16, 2008 9:19 AM by Mark Murray

Three new national polls have come out -- New York Times/CBS (which has Obama leading by six, 45%-39%, among registered voters), the Washington Post/ABC (which has Obama up eight among registered voters, 50%-42%), and Reuters/Zogby (which has him up seven, 47%-40%). When adding yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll (which had Obama up nine among likely voters), it cements the CW that Obama’s lead over McCain right now is in the high single digits.

VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses the latest opinion polls and Barack Obama's speeches to the NAACP and his trip to the mideast.

The Washington Post says Obama “holds his biggest advantage of the presidential campaign as the candidate best prepared to fix the nation's ailing economy, but lingering concerns about his readiness to handle international crises are keeping the race competitive… Questions about Obama's experience remain, particularly his ability to deal with national security and international issues. Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said that his level of experience would hamper his ability to serve effectively as president, while 40 percent said it would help. And asked whether he would make a good commander in chief, 48 percent said yes."

The New York Times uses its poll to focus on the issue of race. "The results of the poll, conducted against the backdrop of a campaign in which race has been a constant if not always overt issue, suggested that Mr. Obama’s candidacy, while generating high levels of enthusiasm among black voters, is not seen by them as evidence of significant improvement in race relations."

More: "Nearly 60 percent of black respondents said race relations were generally bad, compared with 34 percent of whites. Four in 10 blacks say that there has been no progress in recent years in eliminating racial discrimination; fewer than 2 in 10 whites say the same thing. And about one-quarter of white respondents said they thought that too much had been made of racial barriers facing black people, while one-half of black respondents said not enough had been made of racial impediments faced by blacks.”

MICHIGAN: Another reason why this state is becoming a thorn in Obama's side: He's not wanting to over-court the state's Muslim and Arab community.

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Comments

Vegas odds have correctly chosen the president since forever and Obama is heavily favored.
POLLS: WE DON'T NEED NO STINKIN POLLS.
Just one comment on race in this election: It is reported that Obama is getting 98% of the black vote.  If it was reported that McCain was getting 98%of the white vote, everyone would say that the whites were racially motivated.  Why is it not the same for the Obama black votes?
please do not worry about economic news, yes I know there is a OIL CRISES, HOUSING CRISES, JOB CRISES BUT do not worry as bush/cheney/rove/mccant are all doing very well and are laughing at YOU all the way to the bank
If millions of new and young people, registered to vote and than did vote in the primaries, why do polls assume they won't show up for the general? I don't follow the logic.
The only reason McCain leads the the polls in the area of national security is because we have far too many uneducated, WWE-watching simpletons who think that the might-is-right-bomb-first-talk-later approach to foreign affairs is the one that is needed the most. To them, McCain's "hulk angry, want to smash" mentality is appealing, and they foolishly view Obama's strategic, well-thought-out preference for diplomacy as being weak. These neanderthals will be the death of us.
Don - Dayton, OH
^^^^^^

First, blacks have always voted Democrat in overwhelming numbers. They are, in fact, the most reliable base of the Democratic party. Second, McCain has done absolutely jack-shit for black people, and none of his policies speak to any of the issues that affect the black community: his tax cuts heavily favor the wealthy, he has no plans to make education more affordable, and he's perfectly happy with this endless war. The only reason Bush got any black votes at all was because he was able to successfully use the fear card. But this election, that card is no longer in play - McCain represents another Bush term, only without the advantage of being able to convince anyone that he will make us any safer.
Seems like in previous presidential campaigns, whites voted 100% for whites Don (Dayton Ohio).And by golly so did black voters.  I am sure that you are bothered that it took this long to have a viable black candidate as the nominee of a major party.

I am glad to know that you will be supporting Senator Obama.,
well even though polls are just snap shots in time, Im happy that obama is up in the polls
GO OBAMA


Bush and McCain FLIP FLOP on iran
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/whos-laughin-now-suckers/
or
http://sensico2.blogspot.com/2008/07/my-blogs.html
Michigan is not a thorn in Senator Obama's side - it is a ANOTHER swing state where he is leading in the polls despite all the promises from the Clinton campaign and the news media that he couldn't compete there.

Go ahead. Admit it. YOU WERE WRONG!
I wouldn't put too much stock into the courting or not-courting of the vote from the MI Arab community.  He's in a Catch-22 there, and I think a good deal of this is media inflation.  I can't believe that those communities would support Bush III, no matter what Obama does.

Don from OH - posts like yours irritate me.  Give up this whole white vs. black "racially motivated" garbage.  Why can't you move on from this?  This has already been debated to death and has not helped anyone.  Who cares?  It would help if the MSM would stop trying to pigeonhole everyone into categories - black, white, NASCAR Dads, Soccer Moms, etc.  It isn't that simple.
Don Dayton, OH

It is always okay to vote FOR someone.  It gets suspicious when people vote AGAINST someone.  Historically, blacks have voted for whites 100% of the time in the presidential election.  I can cut them some slack on this one.  They've earned it.
Dear Don - Dayton, OH,

People can vote for who they want for whatever reason they want. What's it to ya?

This whole line of conversation is moot. Just a distraction from the fact that John McCain is TOAST. If he loses, it won't be because of black people. It will be because America chose a new direction.
Just one comment on race in this election: It is reported that Obama is getting 98% of the black vote.  If it was reported that McCain was getting 98%of the white vote, everyone would say that the whites were racially motivated.  Why is it not the same for the Obama black votes?
Don - Dayton, OH (Sent Wednesday, July 16, 2008 9:34 AM)

Because your line of thinking and the conclusion you are reaching is completely faulty.  90% of Blacks are Democratic.... they are voting for the Democratic Candidate.. shocker huh?

2004 Election:
Black votes -
John Kerry 88%
George W Bush 11%

It has nothing to do with racism no matter how much some people try to twist that line of argument into being racist.

ANY Democratic candidate for President is going to get nearly 90% of the Black vote.
How would you feel if you were descended from slaves, forged in discriminatory laws and practices for generations, and your people finally (after about four hundred years of having no chance) have a chance to vote for someone who actually looks like you - and who is a very well educated, intelligent and thoughtful person?
We'd be a sorry bunch of folks indeed if we did not want to vote for Obama.  It is a real insult to think we blacks should throw our history out the window at this historic moment.
Don, being the minority in a country is not the same as being in the majority. Just ask whites in South Africa. The next time there is a White SA leader it will be historic.

When you grow up seeing stats that you are more likely to in jail than a board room or more likely to grow up in a single parent home, you probably cling to a ray of 'hope' like Obama's candidacy. That's the same thing older women did with Hillary.

If you are sincere in your question, my answer makes sense.
"Nearly 60 percent of black respondents said race relations were generally bad, compared with 34 percent of whites. Four in 10 blacks say that there has been no progress in recent years in eliminating racial discrimination....."

**************

These two phrases, mathematically, are contradicting.
I think it's interesting all three polls showed a similar lead for Obama and it's basically what Chuck said a couple of weeks ago -- high single digits.  That's why I watch Chuck and read FR!   Dead on the money once again
Of COURSE a lot of the vote, black or white, for Obama or for McCain, is racially motivated.  No one has completely pure, color-blind motivations in this thing. So what? As long as one candidate gets enough votes so the election can't be stolen, the majority of the nation has made its will known. It's called democracy, and it seems to work, at least most of the time, despite people's intent or motivations.
.Bill Ballenger wrote: The Illinois senator ``doesn't have to pander'' to such voters, who are likely to back him anyway, though he can ill- afford to ``dismiss them in an arrogant fashion.''
---------------------------------
You mean arrogant like when the women in hijabs were told they couldn't sit behind the podium in camera-view?  Might be a little hard for Obama to have any big rallies in a heavily-populated Muslim area because none of the women could attend lest they be seen.  WHAT A HYPOCRITE!
Just one comment on race in this election: It is reported that Obama is getting 98% of the black vote.  If it was reported that McCain was getting 98%of the white vote, everyone would say that the whites were racially motivated.  Why is it not the same for the Obama black votes?
Don - Dayton, OH (Sent Wednesday, July 16, 2008 9:34 AM)


Actually, I believe it's read that Obama's getting 89% of the black vote, not 98%. You make it sound as if every black person that's eligible to vote is voting for Obama. I suggest that you re-check your facts. What about those 63% of white voters that favor McCain over Obama? Does that make *them* racist?
To Leni,Michigan...

DITTO DUDE....
Obama by 6 without him closing the race issue and without a large chunck of Hillary voters still on the fence.  If his trip abroad goes well, his commader-in-chief credential goes up.

How can this ba bad.

Don in Dayton, didn't you get the Howard Dean memo?  If anyone suggests they may not vote for Obama, they're racists and will be called out as 'race-baiters.'   Only the Obama camp and Obama supporters are allowed to invoke race when it suits them, it's off limits to anyone else.
'Joe', this morning, went on multiple rants over the polls this morning. He agressively blustered away at Mika, Willie, and John Harwood, (who were clearly uncomfortable, and embarrassed by the seemingly never ending tirade.

He ignored the positive polling numbers for Obama, and adamantly zeroed in on the racial percentages. He went on, and on trying to shame AA's, (5% of whom polled favorably for McCain), for not appreciating John as a war hero.

His fellow pundits were not afforded an opportunity by Scarborough to offer an opposing view as to what the polls might indicate. My take on it is simple. They remember the decades that John the hero, refused to recognize another; Martin Luther King.

Also, McCain's policies are completely out of step with the direction Blacks want to see for the country, ie, education, etc.

Leiberman was still talking up the Gramm 'mental recession' lie today. It isn't going away folks, because that is what McCain believes.
Those people who are saying that Senator Obama is too inexperienced need only to look back at history.  If elected, he will be the fourth youngest President behind:

John F. Kennedy 42y
Theodore Roosevelt 42y
and Bill Clinton 46y

All of the above were considered good, if not great Presidents of the United States.
Also, the President with the least experience in Washington is widely considered to be the best President: Abraham Lincoln.  

On the other hand, of the Presidents over 65 of which there were also three, only one could be considered good: Ronald Reagan.  Though popular, history will tell if his policies did worse for the American economy in the long run than those any other President (our current economic difficulties stem from policies developed by the RNC and President Reagan during his Presidency.)  The other two in the over 65 group have some distinction. William Henry Harrison was the first President to die in office (of natural causes no less) and James Buchanan who is largely considered to be one of the worst, if not the worst President in US history.

So Senator Obama has age and lack of Washington influence on his side.  What does Senator McCain have?  Age is a problem.  His long years in Washington, DC is a problem.  His failed military service is a potential problem.  His enthusiastic and unending support for the War in Iraq is a problem.  His poor attitude toward women is a problem.  His closeness to President Bush II is a problem.  His disbelief in the economic struggles of the American people and lack of knowledge of economics is a problem.  His choice of advisors is a problem.  Seems that there are far more problems with McCain’s “experience” than of Senator Obama’s perceived “lack of experience” (perceived because Senator Obama has more elected political experience than Senator Clinton (Senator Clinton has six years, Senator Obama has eleven).)   I’ll take fewer problems over a perceived lack of experience any day of the week.
Just one comment on race in this election: It is reported that Obama is getting 98% of the black vote.  If it was reported that McCain was getting 98%of the white vote, everyone would say that the whites were racially motivated.  Why is it not the same for the Obama black votes?

Because black voters have been voting for white candidates since they've been allowed to vote.  This is the first time they've had the opportunity to vote for an AM for any significant political position
Democrats typically win 90% of the African American vote
Wasn't there also a Newsweek poll on Jul 14 which had Obama beating McCain by only 3 points when a month ago Newsweek had Obama beating McCain by 15 points? Why isn't this poll mentioned above? And 3 points is within the margin of error. If you add the Newsweek poll to the four above, take the average and subtract three, you have Obama over McCain by 4 points with rounding (actually 3.6 points).
The headlines says that Obama has not been able to close the racial divide,with Obama getting  most of the black and Latino votes why is there no mentioning of McCain being unable to close the racial divide If the news media is going to try so hard to make this a racial thing cover both canidate,s racial divide problem.
Good question Don -Dayton, OH-  If Obama is 1/2 black isn't he also 1/2 white?  Maybe he should play the 1/2 white part up to get the white vote.. Also he is losing big the Latino vote that Hillary had sewn up and is also lacking big on National Security - another area Hillary had good numbers. He has not gained anything with white middle aged and up women either.  Did we really get the best candidate?
Don from Dayton -- because it's plainly OBVIOUS that there is a great racial motivation for blacks to vote for Obama. But considering that somewhere around three quarters of black voters are registered Democrats anyways, I'm not sure why this is a surprising statistic.

I mean, I'm Irish-Catholic; if I'd been alive in 1960, I would've had an additional motivation to vote for Kennedy, despite the fact that most Irish-Catholics were Democrats.
Why cant Mccain break the racial divide and get any black votes? How can he overcome this problem?
Again, obama is where he is today ONLY because of racially motivated blacks. They (most, like obama) have no clue what the issues are or whats going on. They are voting for him because they believe that he is black and will cater to them if elected.
To Don in Dayton:
  Black people voting for BO at 98% isn't racist because they have proven that they will vote for a white male, or white women. That's the only choice they have ever had. Now there is a new choice.
  It's no different than Kennedy getting the Catholic vote in 1960, or Hillary getting the women's vote in the primaries, or Bill Richardson getting the Latino vote especially in his home state of New Mexico or any other governor or senator hoping to carry his home state for a candidate. It's a matter of identification.
   But, unfortunately, there are some people who just
will not vote for a black man no matter how brilliant or wise or inspired. That is racist.
To Don-Dayton, OH 9:34 AM:

to answer your question, no one is disputing the fact that there are many racially motivated voters in this election, there are.  black people are tired of hearing the this number because it makes the assumption that every black person who votes for him is only voting for him because he's black.  yes, there are those that are doing that.  i won't deny that, but to assume everyone just makes every black person look like an uneducated "idiot" following the leader as they say.  many of those votes are nothing more than political.  they truly believe he is the best person for POTUS even if they don't agree with all of his policies.

if the media started reporting that 98% of white people were voting for mccain, than it would be the same thing.  any white person would be insulted if the media started reporting this and making it look like they were only voting for mccain because he's white and the other's guys black.

but please let's be real, there are people out there who are giong to vote on wedge issues, gay rights', religion, abortion and other such nonsense, and yes I do include race in that instead of listening the each candidates policies and deciding for themselves who they agree with more.

and btw, yes I am AA, a woman and a mother of three children. I do support obama but I do not agree with all of his policies.  however, i believe he will be better for the future of my three daughters than mccain will be.  that's why i support him, not because he's black.
Obama getting lot of everybody votes, or he wouldn't be a nominee. So stop whining when your candidate is losing. We don't another BUSH in house, that why Mccain is losing


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