Battleground: Goin' South

Posted: Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro

The AP takes a look at Obama's goal of raising black turnout by 30% and how that could flip some states in the South. "Obama set the 30% goal himself last August at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. ‘I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30% around the country, minimum,’ he said. ‘Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30%. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ.’”

VIDEO: MSNBC's Contessa Brewer talks with Barack Obama supporter, New York Gov. David Paterson about getting a big voter turnout in the South.

“The math backs up his analysis -- if he can deliver the turnout he promises. In Georgia, the GOP presidential nominee's average margin of victory in the past four elections was 216,000 votes. If 30% more voting-age blacks go to the polls in November than the four-year average -- with all else equal, and Obama capturing all of those votes -- he would win the state by 84,000 ballots. Should 90% of those voters go for Obama, a figure he achieved among blacks in some primaries this year, he would still have enough to win the state and its 15 electoral votes.

If Obama reached his goal of a 30% increase and brought all those new black voters into his fold, he could also win in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Virginia and Florida. Wins in the six states would give him 81 new electoral votes -- enough to beat Arizona Sen. John McCain even if the Republican won almost every other toss-up state in the nation, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Ohio. A 30% boost in black turnout also could pull Obama into a tie with McCain in Mississippi. And in South Carolina, a conservative state that went to President Bush by 17 percentage points four years ago, Obama could come within 17,000 votes -- less than a percentage point. Ditto in North Carolina, a state often mentioned as a possible Southern pickup for Obama."

“A 12% increase could flip Virginia and Florida and perhaps one other states, according to author and Dem analyst Tom Schaller.”

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Comments

NObama (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:25 AM)

Mccain will never win in Pennsylvania. Kerry even won in Pennsylvania against Bush in '04.

ge`pa`` (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:26 AM)

As we get closer to the election, McCain's mental slowdown will increase, and his foibles in the debates will be fresh in people's minds.

With Obama's massive effort at the grass-roots to register new voters in ALL 50 States, the landslide victory will be awesome.

We must rid this country of the concept that our President must be a lovable regular Joe. I want the President to be smart, morally solid, and inspiring.

Old "Grandpa Fossil-Tooth Flip-Flops" McCain doesn't qualify on any of those three points!

David Kolva, MD Oswego/Syracuse, NY (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:32 AM)

"okay Obamatons, raise your hands. What is the name of Czechoslovakia today? If you can't answer that question without doing a google search, then shut your yap. If I had to choose, I'd rather have McCain make this error than Obama referring to our
57 STATES!!!!!
And, if you follow guidelines here, Sam Nunn is tool old to be VEEP.
NObama (Sent Wednesday, July 16, 2008 6:50 PM)"

OK...

Czech Republic and Slovakia. I may have the spellings wrong, but that's because no Googling was necessary.

57 states vs. Czechoslovakia? Are you KIDDING? No, I guess not, since you are SO staunch in your beliefs and don't have a sense of humor...

It was 57 CONTESTS, which has been debated ad nauseam on this board. Furthermore, one misspeak vs. several gaffes about a country that no longer exists and hasn't for some time. When we are supposed to be the "leader of the free world"? That's a national stage, in case you hadn't noticed. Last I checked, the world was a lot larger than the U.S. and a lot bigger playing field to make yourself a fool on.

Of course, most Michiganders can't see past their county line, let alone the entire world.

MI Chick (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:33 AM)

We just have to believe....then vote..

BJ, CA (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:38 AM)

So, if Obama gets the kind of black turnout he hopes, the Repiglicans wil need to work very, very hard to somehow disenfranchise that large a number of people. Or they could just unplug the voting machines, I guess...

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:46 AM)

This is exactly why I was so saddened by Tim Russert's death. This election is going to turn this country upside down like NOTHING we've seen in the past. Red states are going to go blue in dramatic numbers and I wished Tim could have been a part of it; he would have been so excited. History will be made come November and the Electorial map as you knowit today will be re-written by our historic nominee Barack Obama. Hope you're watching from where ever you are, Tim!

Diane from Illinois (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:50 AM)

And if picture IDs are not needed, illegal aliens could vote, and that would push some states into the Obama column because we know that illegals are for the Democrats.

Frankie Wheeler (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:54 AM)

I'm anticipating many mechanical problems in people voting this year, whether due to malevolence or simple bureacratic unpreparedness. In the nature of things, a disproportionate amount of failed voting attempts will be in black precincts, which are underfunded, whether through malevolence or lower tax bases. If Obama loses a close contest, there will be much ugliness afterward.

Rodger Lodger, New York NY (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:04 AM)

Obama will do well in the South, Southwest, and West. Its been a long time since Americans are "for" a candidate and not picking the lessor of two evils. The Obama "worker bees" will get out the registrations, call people to get involved, have precinct parties, and get out the vote. There are two levels of operation, the "worker bees" and the candidate himself. This combination beat the Clintons and it will beat McOld. Actually the prolonged primary did help Obama as he has workers in all 50 states who will deliver on election day.
McOLD will continue to make gaffes (which will give the media something to talk about) and Obama has had 22 debate experiences which will serve him well.

The frustrating part will be the media spin as they will try to Pretend there is a contest, when in fact the contest is already over.

Ron Indiana (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:08 AM)

looks like we can see a new electoral map

Awkward Exchange between McCain’s press aides and St. Louis Reporter
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/16/awkward-exchange-between-mccains-press-aides-and-st-louis-reporter/
or
http://sensico2.blogspot.com/2008/07/my-blogs.html

camie (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:09 AM)

A good portion of southern Reagan democrats have just about had it with the republican party....it hasn't been Reagan's for a long time and isn't looking like it with the likes of "Keating 5 Keep the War Going" McCain heading it. Barack Obama is demonstrating his ability to unite and close divides and will win the majority of the south. I believe the race will even be close here in Oklahoma where the news media is so bent to the right they've got a hump.

bill, okla (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:14 AM)

Abraham Lincoln knew that the Union absolutely had to hold together, in order to give us the best chance for a powerful future. Tribalism reduces down to divided we fall.

A poster yesterday said that African Americans have faltered to vote largely in one bloc. They said Blacks should not let the dems, or the repubs take their vote for granted, but rather keep both parties guessing so to speak.

With unity comes power. Especially well documented, consistent, historical unity. Blacks most certainly have been taken for granted by the Democratic party for decades. Their extraordinary level of patience, and loyalty to the dems has been unequalled, and the party knew it.

They finally reaped some benefit for their steadfast support this year, and rightly so. In the end, unity brings it's own rewards.

donna (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:22 AM)

As I have said b/4 when the republicans marginalize a voting block and do not seek their votes at all then they leave it open for someone like barack to come in and increase the voter turnout and turn states from red to blue!!!

Kris STL (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:31 AM)

‘I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30% around the country, minimum,’

Seems to me another example of Obama talking out both sides of his mouth. How many times has he said this "isn't about race."

NObama (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:25 AM)

NObama, if you'd take just a second and READ, you'd see that this isn't about race or which side of the mouth a person speaks. The AP ran the numbers and they conclude that if Obama's prediction holds true then he will be successful in those southern states. He recognizes he has a unique ability to bring the voting rolls up and he is predicting he can do it.
Imagine anyone being surprised if Mitt Romney said he could increase voter turnout in Utah. Its numbers, pure and simple.

Benny, SFBayArea, California (Sent Thursday, July 17, 2008 10:31 AM)

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