First thoughts: McCain's rough weekend
Posted: Monday, July 21, 2008 9:19 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain's rough weekend: You know you had a problematic weekend when: 1) one of your top economic advisers/surrogates finally steps down from the campaign after his “nation of whiners” remark; 2) you get panned for breaking CODEL protocol/etiquette by announcing (incorrectly) at a fundraiser that your opponent is headed to Iraq on Friday or Saturday; 3) the prime minister of Iraq tells a German magazine that he backs your opponent's plan for withdrawing troops from that country; and 4) when the Iraqi government tries to walk back that support, it does so unconvincingly. On the bright side for McCain, his campaign seized on remarks from Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen that withdrawing US troops over the next two years would be “dangerous.” And he starts this week anew with a tour of battleground states -- taking him to Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- as well as with an interview on TODAY in which he defended his position on Iraq (“I was right about the surge at the darkest time”) and talked about Maliki’s Der Spiegel interview (saying that Iraq wants us out of the country, but based on conditions on the ground).
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VIDEO: Barack Obama meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in Baghdad. NBC's Ned Colt reports.
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Already time to go home? Per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Obama has arrived in Baghdad and he spoke with Maliki. The headline after their photo-op: Maliki’s spokesman said afterwards (in English) that the Iraqi vision is for all US troops to be out of Iraq by 2010. And with this news -- as well as the Der Spiegel interview, in which Maliki seemed to back Obama’s withdrawal plan -- the trip seems like it has already been a PR success for the Illinois senator. If he could, Obama should probably come home from right now. But he won’t. After visiting Iraq, his overseas trip will take him to Jordan, Israel, Germany (where he will speak at the Victory Column, not the Brandenburg Gate), France, and the United Kingdom. How bad was the Maliki interview for the McCain campaign? As one GOP strategist who occasionally provides advice to the campaign told the
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder: “We’re fu&$@#.” It's hard to imagine the trip can get better at this point for Obama. If anything, there are two big moments left which are fraught with peril: Israel and the campaign speech on foreign soil.
*** Surge vs. withdrawal: Obama has the easier fact to sell: Maliki wants troops out in 16 months. But how about the fact that this weekend -- after a yearlong boycott -- a key Sunni bloc rejoined the Iraqi government? Doesn't this mean that the surge which, coincidentally started over a year ago, provided breathing space for political reconciliation? And herein lies McCain's frustration with the coverage of this trip and with Maliki in particular: Does Maliki talk up the surge or focus on withdrawal? It also shouldn’t be ignored that Maliki is playing politics with Bush here. This is yet another nail in the Lame Duck coffin, which has to make the current 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. occupant a little nuts.
*** Conventional vs. comfort: Turning back home, all indications are pointing to Obama's veep pick getting announced in the 10-day window after he gets back from Europe and before the Olympics. (Maybe, given the calendar, we're stating the obvious at this point, but everything is about timetables in the Obama campaign, right?) Speaking of the veepstakes process, one criterion that is too often overlooked is the "comfort factor." Both nominees are the leaders who prefer to surround themselves with people they like and respect. Sure, both have attempted to sell themselves as politicians who will sit down with anyone with any point of view. But both hate to hear calculation enter the equation in a hiring decision. Would it be that much of a surprise if both men end up making politically risky picks in the name of comfort? For instance, there's a lot of chatter that McCain is particularly fond of both Tom Ridge and Mike Bloomberg, and that he could see himself partnering with either of these two to help run the country. But politically, both would be tough sells to the socially conservative crowd. For Obama, a comfort pick would be Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius, or even Jack Reed. Will the Obama and McCain picks end up being picks of comfort or conventional? Stay tuned.
*** Meet Jack Reed: Speaking of Reed… The Rhode Island senator, who is on the overseas trip with Obama, has been to Iraq 11 times (and voted against the original Iraq war resolution)… The widely respected voice on national security is a 1971 West Point grad, though he did not fight in Vietnam. The Army Ranger paratrooper, who eventually commanded the 82nd Airborne, was assigned elsewhere… Father was a school custodian and WWII vet… Was on a trip to Afghanistan with McCain and Lieberman when he first met his wife… Took weekly art classes at the age of 5 at the Rhode Island School of Design… Big Will Ferrell fan and drives a 1991 Ford Escort… Differing with Obama, he was against the 1991 Gulf War and voted against the recent compromise FISA legislation.
VIDEO: Days after outlining a plan to expand President Bush's faith-based initiative, Barack Obama was back before another church group, as he and John McCain jostle for religious voters.
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A Purpose-Driven forum: The
New York Times is reporting that McCain and Obama will speak at a forum at Rev. Rick Warren’s megachurch on August 16, and they will appear on stage together for a brief amount of time. This is the blueprint for groups who are trying to get Obama and McCain together on the same stage. Why did Obama agree to this Rick Warren forum? Because it provides him two things: 1) access to a constituency group he might not win over and 2) an opportunity to prove his Christianity bona fides. McCain gets less out of this because he's appealing to voters he needs to have, but it does give him a bigger spotlight at a time he made need it.
*** Hillary’s debt: Looking at her June FEC filing, the New York Times reports that Clinton loaned herself an additional $1 million (up to a total of $13.2 million), and that her debt to her vendors rose from $10.4 million to $12 million. The paper also writes that in June, “the Clinton campaign took in just $2.7 million from donors in June, less than the $5.4 million it spent.”
*** On the trail: McCain is in Maine, where he meets with former President George H.W. Bush in Kennebunkport and later raises money there before heading to a picnic at the Maine Military Museum in South Portland. Obama is in Iraq.
Countdown to Dem convention: 35 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 42 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 106 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 183 days
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