First thoughts: A Man in Amman
Posted: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 9:26 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** A man in Amman: Obama has arrived in Jordan, beginning the post-Afghanistan/Iraq part of his overseas trip. Per NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Obama will hold a press conference at the Amman Citadel with Chuck Hagel and Jack Reed, who accompanied the presumptive Democratic nominee on his visit to Iraq and Afghanistan. After that, Obama will have a wide-ranging, one-on-one talk with Jordan’s King Abdullah at the king’s residence. During the half-hour meeting, which will be attended by an American “notetaker,” Obama and the king will address matters of regional stability and the Israeli-Palestinian issue, advisers said. Obama will later dine with the king, Queen Rania, and several American and Jordanian officials, including Hagel and Reed. So far, there hasn’t been a misstep, as the New York Times front-pages this morning. And Obama has certainly benefited from the news over the past few days. Does that continue with today’s press conference, tomorrow’s jam-packed day in Israel, and Thursday’s speech in Berlin (which produced plenty of questions at today’s pen-and-pad with reporters in Jordan)?
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VIDEO: Following a visit to Iraq, Obama heads to Jordan for talks with King Abdullah. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Amman. ***
The surge revisited: Republicans, meanwhile, have jumped all over Obama’s response to ABC’s Terry Moran, who asked the Illinois senator yesterday whether he would support the surge if he had to do it all over again. Obama answered no. “Well, these kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult. Hindsight is 20-20," he said. "But I think that what I am absolutely convinced of is at that time we had to change the political debate, because the view of the Bush Administration … was one that I just disagreed with and one that I continue to disagree -- which is to look narrowly at Iraq and not focus on these broader issues.” But ask yourself this: Wouldn’t Republicans be jumping all over Obama for flip-flopping had he answered that he now backs the surge? (And isn't this the same kind of question as asking McCain if he regrets voting for the Iraq war, which he still stands by.) Of course, as we mentioned yesterday, Republicans want to redirect the narrative back to the surge (which tends to benefit McCain) versus withdrawal (which tends to help Obama).
*** Shiny metal object time: Yesterday, citing sources close to the campaign, Bob Novak reported that McCain might make his VP pick this week. Soon after, McCain sources told the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza that McCain would be meeting with Bobby Jindal on Wednesday when he travels to the state. Are the McCain folks throwing shiny metal objects into the air as the political world fixates on Obama? That probably makes sense if you look at McCain's schedule. Today, he's in New Hampshire; tomorrow, it's Pennsylvania before heading to meet with Jindal, who's no longer considered a top-tier pick after the state legislator-pay controversy. Thursday takes him to Ohio, but would McCain want to compete with Obama's Berlin speech that day? And on Friday, he goes to California, hardly an ideal state or day to make a veep selection. What’s more, as NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell notes, Cindy McCain is out of the country this week, and it would be surprising for McCain to make his pick while his wife is away.
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VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray takes a look at McCain's potential V.P. short list and addresses speculation that the Republican may soon announce his pick.
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Trying to recapture the news cycle: What McCain’s advisers might be worried about, however, is Obama dominating the news cycle over the next two or three weeks. Think about it: After his overseas trip this week, what happens if -- as we mentioned yesterday -- Obama decides to make his VP pick the week of July 28 or August 4? That would mean two- or three-straight weeks of Obama dominating the news before the Olympics, which begins on August 8. And after the Olympics comes the Democratic convention. Perhaps it’s that kind of schedule that has McCain’s folks thinking about speeding up their VP process. Indeed, McCain's camp has been very focused on trying to win daily and weekly news cycles, more so than the Obama campaign. The Clintons and Bush were similarly obsessed with day-to-day news cycle victories. But is there a point of diminishing returns? Sure, McCain did seem to pull even on the campaign narrative yesterday, but did it advance the overall ball of the campaign? Obama's campaign arguably lost more news cycles post-Super Tuesday than he won; he simply won the ones that counted more often than Clinton. Is the McCain campaign too focused on this week's Obama narrative to the point that they've taken the eye off their long-term campaign message ball?
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VIDEO: Reports swirl that McCain may announce his running mate this week, possibly in an effort to detract attention from Obama's international tour. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.
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Battleground watch: Today, McCain holds a town hall on energy and the economy in Rochester, NH just as a brand-new University of New Hampshire poll shows Obama up by just three points in the state (46%-43%). That the margin is close isn’t too surprising: Kerry won the state by just 9,000 votes in 2004 (50%-49%), and Bush won it by 7,000 in 2000 (48%-47%). New Hampshire represents McCain’s best chance to a blue state red, in part because of the state’s independent streak as well as McCain’s primary victories there in 2000 and 2008. But the state is trending Democratic. In the midterm elections two years ago, Democratic challengers knocked off two incumbent GOP congressmen -- Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass -- as Democrats also took control of the state legislature. And former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) probably holds the edge this year against incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R).
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Meet Chuck Hagel: In our latest installment of potential veep picks, we take a look at Chuck Hagel, who toured Afghanistan and Iraq with Obama and now joins him in Jordan… His father died when he was 16, and Hagel began working to support the family… Dropped out of college and worked as a radio DJ before he and his brother enlisted in Vietnam. While there, the brothers were hit by a mine while driving, and Hagel dragged his brother to safety despite his brother's body being on fire… Later, with just $5,000 in savings, he founded what became the second-largest cell-phone company in the country… Has a tradition of wearing costumes to the Senate (of his fellow senators) on Halloween… But Hagel as Obama’s VP? Consider that in what little Obama has said on the process, the Illinois senator said governance matters. Aside from Iraq, Obama and Hagel disagree on virtually everything -- abortion, stem-cell research, gay marriage, energy (he's to the right of McCain -- he's for drilling in ANWR), taxes, education, and so on.
*** On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Rochester, NH before heading to Baltimore for a fundraiser with former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). Obama is in Amman, Jordan, where he holds a press conference this morning and then later meets with King Abdullah.
Countdown to Dem convention: 34 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 41 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 105 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 182 days
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