First thoughts: Obama's election to win

Posted: Thursday, July 24, 2008 9:23 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s election to win: How important has this overseas trip been for Obama? Look no further than our latest NBC/WSJ poll, which has Obama leading McCain by six points (47%-41%), unchanged from last month. While the survey finds that the political winds are at the Dem candidate’s back -- just 13% believe the country’s on the right track, an all-time low in the poll; this is the 25th-straight NBC/WSJ survey in which the GOP has a net-negative rating; and Bush’s approval rating is only at 30% -- there are plenty of signs that Obama hasn’t yet closed the deal; if anything, he's simply grabbing on to the reverse Bush coattails at the moment. A majority (55%) think he would be the riskier choice for president, less than half of respondents say he doesn’t share their values and background, and McCain clobbers him on experience and commander-in-chief questions. This election, in fact, has become a referendum on Obama: 51% say they are focusing more on what kind of president Obama would be, versus just 27% who say they are focusing more on McCain. While a common refrain is that this election is shaping up as Obama’s election to lose, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) puts it another way “This remains Barack Obama’s election to win,” he says. “In the end, the election is about reassuring voters and removing doubts.”

VIDEO: The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that Barack Obama has not yet received any boost in ratings since his trip overseas. A Race for the White House panel discusses.

*** Re-running Hillary’s campaign isn’t the answer: But while Obama is working on some his shortcomings as he travels overseas, ask yourself this: Has McCain been working on his, especially on a week when he’s had the country to himself? A whopping 77% in the poll believe that McCain would follow Bush’s policies very closely or somewhat closely. Just 14% of McCain’s own voters are excited about his candidacy (compared with 44% of Obama voters who say that about the Illinois Democrat). And, by a 55%-40% margin, voters prefer a presidential candidate who will bring greater changes -- even if he’s less experienced and tested -- to an experienced candidate who will bring fewer changes. “McCain can’t make this election about experience,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). “Re-running Hillary’s campaign isn’t going to be enough.” McCain tried to do something different by traveling to a Gulf Coast oil rig to promote his policies on offshore drilling, but those plans got scrapped by Hurricane Dolly. If it wasn't for bad luck these days, McCain would have no luck at all. That said, will observers look back on this summer as a wasted opportunity for McCain to start creating distance with Bush? Appearing with Bush's father this week, after all, wasn't exactly the best way to create that distance.

*** It’s the economy, dumba$$: No longer does the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” suffice. We need more of an expletive to drive home the point how central the economy is to this presidential election. In the poll, the economy and energy/gas prices are the two biggest voter concerns; Iraq is third. Voters are screaming for the candidates to focus on the economy, which is what makes the European portion of Obama's trip potentially more troublesome. It’s not clear that either Obama or McCain owns this issue right now. Just 28% have confidence that Obama would be able to get the economy back on track, while only 17% say that of McCain. (But Democrats do enjoy a comfortable lead when it comes to which party better handles the economy and energy.) Also according to the poll, voters -- overwhelmingly -- want McCain to pick a running mate who’s an expert on the economy. They want Obama to pick an expert in military or foreign affairs, but a close second is an economic expert. Who out there fits those bills for McCain and Obama? Will Michael Bloomberg get second looks from both candidates? Romney and Portman rise to the top of McCain's list? Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina too? What about Mark Warner on the Dem side? Will Robert Rubin's name suddenly surface?

*** Bigger than David Hasselhoff? Already this morning, Obama visited the Western Wall in Jerusalem, traveled to Germany, and met with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Yet the big event comes around 1:30 pm ET, when Obama delivers his speech in Berlin. The address, of course, has sparked plenty of questions: How big is it going to be? Is it a rally? Why were the Obama folks passing around fliers promoting the event? Earlier this morning, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones, Obama held an avail on the flight to Berlin and answered some of those questions. On whether he’s nervous about speaking before a million screaming Europeans: “I doubt we are going to have a million screaming Europeans… Let’s tamp down expectations here. If we get tens of thousands.” More on the expectations of the crowd size: “My staff basically just told me that this space is bigger than I realized. It is a potentially bad thing. We are sort of on the high wire all of the sudden. It’s like, 'Wait how many does this accommodate?'” On the substance of the speech: “It is not a wonky policy speech.” And on whether he will speak German, a la JFK: “Probably not. My German is not real good, but I don’t think the Germans would feel a lot of appeal to that.”

*** Touché: The RNC, meanwhile, is up with radio ads hitting Obama for his lack of support for troop funding last year. Where are the ads running? They’re in all three US cities named Berlin in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, as well as all three US cities named Paris in Maine, Michigan, and Missouri. But we ask: Why no love for Paris, VA? Population 49!

*** Going for the gold: The AP writes, "Barack Obama is going for the gold. He has decided to buy $5 million in national advertising on NBC during the broadcast of the Olympic games. The ads will appear on network and cable channels. The ad purchase was first reported yesterday on the website of Advertising Age, a magazine that covers the industry."

*** Blog fodder: Also, don’t miss this little shot Obama took at Fox News when talking at his avail about the information/news the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan are getting. “Sure, they are well informed, especially because you know [Major] Garrett’s on their home channel. How is it that Fox News has such an impact with Armed Forces television?” Garrett, also on the plane, answered: “Choice.” Then Obama replied: “Is that the commander-in-chief’s choice?” Over to you, Mr. O'Reilly!

VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray takes a look at McCain's potential V.P. short list and addresses speculation that the Republican may soon announce his pick.

*** Meet Rob Portman: With McCain in Ohio, we take a look at Rob Portman (sorry, Bobby Jindal -- we were going to profile you before McCain canceled his appearance in Louisiana)… His family's ancestors were Quaker abolitionists who were active in the Underground Railroad… That you can put more money in your 401(k) and IRA is, in part, due to Portman… During 2000 and 2004 VP debate practice for Cheney, he played the roles of Lieberman and Edwards… On the one hand, Portman brings experience on the economy as OMB director and a geographic advantage being from Ohio. On the other, his close ties to Bush (pictures hung in his office of him running with Bush Sr. and fishing with Cheney in Snake River, WY.) and his work as US Trade Rep. are problems, particularly in his home state where he never ran for statewide office. He represented Cincinnati in Congress.

*** On the trail: McCain is in the battleground of Ohio, where he raises money and then attends a town hall in the evening with Lance Armstrong; the two hold a media avail after that. Obama, as mentioned above, is in Germany.

Countdown to Dem convention: 32 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 39 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 103 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 180 days

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Comments

FR - I am questioning your polling techniques and who you people poll.

The numbers don't seem to match the excitement I read about all day on other blogs, phone calls, networks - here in PA.

When I talk to my friends in VA, GA, TN, LA, NY, NJ,NC,SC,AL, MS,OH, military buddies overseas there a movement of gigantic porportions and many, many people that are voting for Barack Obama and change.

I strongly suggest that you guys start explaining not just the numbers - but where, who and how you get them.

Because these numbers can not be true representation of how most Americans feel and who they want for President.

This polling business is really starting to be annoying and unbelievable.

It even seem contradictory - how can there be 60% excitement for Barack Obama - but yet he has a 6 point lead.

Boy do we really need Tim back - to get the math right.

Thank you and GOD BLESS AMERICA

The - Democrat Soldier (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:12 AM)

Jerry, you say liberalism is a disease? I say, you are like a bad case of herpes on top of a worse case of gen. warts!

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:13 AM)

NBC is baaaaack, with the same "tight race" spin they used to pump up their ratings during the Dem primary.

Here's where the race really stands:

Obama is leading in 11 of the 12 swing states that were decided by a margin of five points or less in 2004 including five of the six that were carried by George Bush. And while Obama has a comfortable lead in every state that John Kerry won by a margin of more than five points in 2004, McCain is in a difficult battle in a number of states that Bush carried by a margin of more than five points including such solidly red states as Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, and North Carolina.

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence -- historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months -- point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November.

Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.

balthus, Raleigh, NC (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:13 AM)

I think all the wealthy east coast pundits are afraid that they may have to pay their fair share of taxes if obama wins. like everything else in this country "it’s all about the money". the republicans have turned this country into a haven for the wealthy at the poors expense, a wage earner can't hide any of their money form the irs, can't take many frivolous deductions when you can't make the deduction threshold. the tax system has been messaged by the republican elitists to favor the republican elitists, what they hide and write off the wage earner makes up, investment returns are not treated as income, and the money from those investmates that used to mean new jobs and facilities in the u.s. now is used to build facilities outside the country, the return on those investments should be taxed at about 100% unless it can be proven that said investmates help u.s. workers. the american worker used to have employer provided benefits, now in an effort to get the investors more return those benefits are gone, and the good republican party thinks that only the wealthy are entitled to healthcare and a dignified retirement. the great republican farce has turned the greatest nation on earth into nothing but a memory for most, this will not stand.
so you pundits continue your assault on obama even though you know that he is the only choice when it comes to what is truly best for the country as a whole, clinch your fists full of money and grit your teeth while making disingenuous comments about obama, change is inevitable get used to the idea.

MK,MO (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:13 AM)

I find it quite un-newsworthy that your poll shows no indication of a trip-abroad bounce for Obama. Polls taken before events occur generally have no reflection of the events.

Tom, Winston-Salem, NC (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:13 AM)

Running radio ads in every U.S. town they could find named Berlin sounds a little childish.

It sounds like a little kid with a little plastic briefcase pretending he's heading off the office like dad. Whoever came up with that idea should be relegated to working phone banks or something.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:14 AM)

culturethreads.com has the latest on McCain's huge gaffe about the Sunni Awakening, which is still getting worse! Must read.....

h (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:17 AM)

"Jerry in Corpus, do you still have a roof? How is it down there? "

He's sitting in the RNC offices in Washington, how the hell does he know what is happening in Texas.

McToady (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:18 AM)

Is it just me or is McCain's campagin being to look like Hillary's last couple of months?

Kitchen sink?

chris (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:18 AM)

I agree that MSNBC should stop using the word "Cocky". It actually comes across as offensive given it's connotation. Confident or self-assured would suffice. You could easily say the same of John McCain who speaks miss-truths as if they were absolute fact. Given his slandering of Obama about losing the war...that is the most outrageous display of arrogance I've seen from a candidate.

CJ (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:18 AM)

I will never understand how MSNBC had Tim Russert, but also allows air time to that idiot, Joe Scarborough. Do you have no pride at all? It is unwatchable, and so by the way is Andrea Mitchell.

As for Fox being News? Isn't that an oxymoron?

sotiredofignorance (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:18 AM)

FIRST READ: Here's a point I haven't heard in the press which I think is a good one:

McCain and his surrogates sure are making a lot of extreme comments about Obama's youth and inexperience. So, what if McCain picks a running mate that is about Obama's age or younger, and/or has little foreign policy experience (Jindal, Pawlenty)? Won't McCain's words be instantly thrown back at him? Especially for someone McCain's age, the VP has to be someone that is ready to be president. What if the VP has never been to Iraq or Afghanistan? Or Germany? And how well is the "shifting positions" line of attack gonna play is Romney is the choice?

It seems to me Obama is seting a huge trap for himself by allowing himself and his surrogates to come on so strong about Obama's age and time in government, etc.

see more of this from culturethreads.com

g (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:20 AM)

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY
**********************************
It's only six points because no matter what some people just will never vote for an African American to be in the white house and that's the bottom line. They can say all they want that he should be more then six points ahead or this or that. But the only reason he has not blown Mccain out of the water is for every two steps he takes forward or prove them wrong they find something or somebody to pushes him back four steps with the BS, the lies and false half truth that Fox and other news be kicking. Talk about fair and balance.

Baltimore_Fan, Balt, Md (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:20 AM)

Fox News is the number one news channel, so naturally it is everywhere, even on Armed Forces TV. IF MSNBC would show the news instead of porn captures and life behind bars, maybe they could challenge them. But Fox is news, 24 hours a day. Obama better just get used to it....

...If the economy is the number one issue, why is Obama over in Europe? I think the economy is just a blown up liberalized media issue. Judging from the thousands of people at the Amusement parks in San Antonio over the weekend and watching one guy eating three $8.00 turkey legs, there is no such thing as a bad economy. Just more trumped up liberal hogwash.

Of course, that will all change if Obama and his liberal friends have their way about it. More job losses and more misery for ordinary Americans, but the Liberal congress could care less.

Liberalism is a disease.

jerry/corpus christi texas
=========================================================
The problem with folks like the hapless hopelessly misguided jerry is that they are trying to use the same old repug fearmongering "evul librul" talking points that was effectively used by Bush/Cheney/McSame over the last 7 years.
There are two types of neocons. There are the types who are enormously or pretend that they are. In order to maintain that wealth or power, they will sacrifice anything and everything (armed forces lives, American jobs, reasonable health care) just to maintain their way of life. They are keenly aware that this election is about maintaining a lifestyle based on the major economic commodities like oil, and ability of an oil based economy to maintain their wealth. There are offshoots of this philosophy: the removal of Saddam Hussein to allow the major oil companies to confiscate Iraqi oil; the prevalence of lobbyist access to preserve nefarious interests for personal enrichment; the disdain for global warming, the fear of alternative energy choices, the lack of concern and the advocation of job outsourcing to foreign companies for shareholder profit; the utter lack of concern for affordable healthcare, thereby enriching the insurance companies, and the lack of concern for the current housing situation.
The second type of "pseudo" neocons are represented by the uneducated, uninformed gullible people who spout the rhetoric that "Obama is a Turrist/Muslim/fist pumping/bogeyman who is goin to send all our money to Africa!". These sad individuals are easy prey for the neocon fear mongers. The neocons know that they can play on inherent fears of these mentally challenged individuals, and get them stirred up enough to post on these blogs very racist biased opinions that are downright lies. The neocons then can sit back and laugh at how they manipulated the witless; thereby insuring that the Bush/McCain demagoguery continues. That has been the formula for 2000, and 2004 elections; I suspect it will go into overdrive.
The so called "PUMAs", "Operation Chaos" supporters supporting this attempt to prop up Hillary (Hillary will not effectively distance herself from this because of her personal narcissism) are further attempts to maintain power for the neocons.
Obviously biased reporting (Faux noise, C(more)BS with Katie Couric, Andrea Mitchell, George Stephanopolos and others have a stake in the status quo; hence their biased reporting.
The solution to this continual quagmire of BS is to speak out and challenge these neocon fearmongers at every turn.
Our country is at stake We have the truth on our side. We must not let Bush/Cheney/McCain win again.

Walt, Ohio (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:21 AM)

*** Going for the gold: The AP writes, "Barack Obama is going for the gold. He has decided to buy $5 million in national advertising on NBC during the broadcast of the Olympic games. The ads will appear on network and cable channels. The ad purchase was first reported yesterday on the website of Advertising Age, a magazine that covers the industry."

*************************

What a fabulous prospect. The enjoyment of Olympic excitment, with Obama ads sandwiched in. What an aewsome buy for the dems.

donna (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:22 AM)

Nicole,

I stopped watching ALL news from MSNBC months ago. Can't stand Scarborough and Mika's bowing down to him sends woman BACK about 100 years. Sounds like Andrea Mitchell is continuing her "I'm bitter because Hillary didn't win" fest in her reporting, too. NOT one single reporter on MSNBC gives a fair and balanced report. They think you want THEIR opinions on the candidates. Even Keith. EVERYONE knows he supports Obama; therefore they agree with whatever he says. But is that FAIR and BALANCED reporting? No. It is not. No one just gives you the facts and let's you make up your own minds. Look at how CBS covered-up (once again) for Telfon John. Doesn't the public NEED to know this man is senile and can't keep his stories straight? In 2004, the media help elect George W Bush. Are we going to let that happen again this year? I sure hope not. McCain is getting more and more desperate by the day.....I'm sure we'll be seeing Rev. Wright emerge, again, very soon. What else does the GOP have? Not much....including a candidate.

Diane from Illinois (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:23 AM)

To C.K. Steele Fort Lauderdale, FL:

*Stands and applauds!*

Your post was magnificent - and so true!

Nashville_fan (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:23 AM)

"Clara" from earlier . . .

I think the number is something like 16 BILLION and counting that we just "don't know" or "Can't Account for"

WHY IS McCain getting a pass for this, MSM, FIRST READ!!???

WTF IS GOING ON WITH THE PRESS IN THIS PLACE???

Andrea Mitchell is pissed that she didn't get a chance to try and trap Obama into saying that the surge has worked, to again brand him a flip flopper, your favorite narrative, while ignoring the very telling, enthusiastic, reception that Obama is getting from the troops, the generals(Patreus too) and other foreign dignitaries and leaders!

Abdullah PERSONALLY drove Obama to the airport for crying out loud!! Why no speculation or even mention of THAT Andrea!? Did McCain get that sort of Reception, did Bush, Did even Bill???

But no you want to gripe about not getting the access that you wanted so you can ask him your preconceived, narrative-upholding questions!! There is plenty to report. But You guys want to define Obama the way YOU want to!

You don't respect the American people enough to make up their own minds!

Shame on you Andrea! Shame on you Chuck Todd!

The Only people doing SOMETHING in the way of responsible reporting is Kieth Olberman, Sometimes Chris Matthews and Dan Abrams!

What is wrong with you guys at MSNBC!!! Tim's Gone and now everything is going to crap!

Wow!

Matthew (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:24 AM)

Obama is a lair plain and simple. He treats the Presidential election like a Disney Land attraction and while it appears fun ,in the end it is only make believe. He lies to the Jews (who his church preaches hate of), he lies to whites(whom his church of 20 years preaches hate of), he lies to women about making them equal (but calls a professional reporter sweetie, didn't call a man sweetie), lies about his votes as Senator said he pulled the switch wrong SIXTIMES!) He lies to black men about being responsible, (but let his opening number call women "HOs", He lies to the people about their welfare, (but he calls people ignorant (especially those who don't agree with him) white gun toting religious cling, anti-immigration. He lies about race shouldn't matter, but his minions call everyone a racist who again doesn't buy into his rhetoric, He lies about promises he can't keep.

He tries to steal the Presidential Seal as if it were his own and replace it with his own name. He calls for unity, but incites hatred of his followers for anyone not buying into his garbage. Just look at the above.

He uses Reverend Wright tactics to incite hattres and eventually violence to those who won't agree with him.

This is the core of the man and his beliefs, which is to only control of the masses so that they may heap Godlike praise upon him.

dragonfly777 (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:25 AM)

Linda, Boston: I couldn't agree with you more. I believe that's why they're always asking "why isn't Obama ahead by more" instead of asking why, with his name recognition, years in the Senate, pow story, etc., isn't he ahead. I still believe that race plays a role in these polls and if Obama were Caucasian, this contest wouldn't even be close.

Jamie, Elmwood Park, IL (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:25 AM)

"Recession? Nope. Gas prices? Coming down. Iraq? In final clean up mode. And Obama is going to do what again? "

How did "reality avoidance" become the right wings most valuable asset?

I guess when the auto makers cut jobs and pensions it's the sign of prosperty?

Gas has gone down 5 cents after rising $3.

I believe it was MISSION ACCOMPLISHED several years ago.

You weren't one of Rove's better students, were you?

You wouldn't know a "plan" from a "fact" (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:26 AM)

does anyone know if chuckie T's wife works for McCains' campaign? I thought that I heard or read this somewhere. If that's true, it explains ALOT about what gets written and reported here at FR.
old lady for Obama - WI (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 9:59 AM)

Don't believe everything you read here from bloggers. Chuck Todd's wife is NOT working for McCain. She works for a Democratic firm (found with a quick google):

"Kristian Denny Todd is a seasoned communications professional and a veteran of numerous successful Democratic campaigns. She recently served as Senior Communications Strategist to U.S. Senator Jim Webb’s 2006 victory in Virginia where she directed all earned and paid media strategy on behalf of the candidate. Webb’s victory tipped the control of the U.S. Senate back to the Democrats. She joined Steve Jarding and Jessica Vanden Berg in creating Maverick Strategies and Mail providing direct mail and consulting services for Democratic candidates and progressive causes."

http://www.maverickstrat.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2&Itemid=5

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:27 AM)

In the fall, the kiddies and the lefties will all be left with their mouths hanging open as mainstream America makes its choice known: McCain is the new President. And the Europeans will have to wait for the next socialist darling to come along to pin their hopes of weakening the U.S. on.

Jaycee (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:28 AM)

dear first read,
I have been a poster on your site for sometime and it saddens me that your censorship no longer is for offensive commentary but ideology that differs from your own, please think about returning to a less manipulated format, it's much more entertaining, and no one likes going to the trouble of submitting a post when they know it will be rejected because it's not an ideological "fit", I mean that's the whole point, get different perspectives on the issues, right?

MK,MO (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:28 AM)

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