McCain makes up ground in key states

Posted: Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:43 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: States, 2008, McCain, Obama, Polls

From NBC's Mark Murray
Results from the latest Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com poll of the battleground states Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin:

COLORADO: McCain 46% - Obama 44%
MICHIGAN: Obama 46% - McCain 42%
MINNESOTA: Obama 46% - McCain 44%
WISCONSIN: Obama 50% McCain 39%

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the importance of Barack Obama's speech in Berlin and the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which has Obama leading John McCain by six points.

The methodology: From July 14 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
-- 1,425 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
-- 1,684 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent;
-- 1,261 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
-- 1,094 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

In June's poll, Obama lead in all four states
COLORADO: Obama 49% - McCain 44%
MICHIGAN: Obama 48% - McCain 42%
MINNESOTA: Obama 54% - McCain 37%
WISCONSIN: Obama 52% - McCain 39%

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Comments

So he gained a lock in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Colorado is in a dead heat.

Lets see how it is after the 4th day of the convention ;)

Matt, Idaho (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:49 AM)

If it looks like Obama is going to walk away with this election, expect a "surprise" in Sept or Oct. There is NO WAY this administration, with the history they have with fair elections, is going to turn over the WH to anyone but McCain.

Wait and see (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:50 AM)

I'm guessing when the media gets past this current phase of protecting McCain from his own gaffes, we might see the numbers change.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:50 AM)

These polls most likely will stay in the close range until after the conventions and the debates begin.

OBAMA/BIDEN, 2008!

KJ, Dallas, TX (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:51 AM)

Yikes!!!!

donna (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:51 AM)

These polls where taken before McGaffe begain his smear campaign fill with lies and misstatements. The more McGaffe speaks on foreign policy the more it becomes clear that he is not as well versed as even he believed. The best picture of yesterday was him standing by that cheese section in the market. I was like hummmmmmmmmm good product placement , Ok McCain give us that grand grin smerk thing you do. He did and I fell out of my chair laughing. I just cant believe that he gets the free past that he does. I really like how FixFuxFox News has be reduced to just making up facts to make new.

Brian M De. (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:53 AM)

See Liberals, Americans have common sense. They don't want a cocky, arrogant, know-it-all fool for a president. Better to take a known like John McCain, then a loose cannon like Obama.

Brain Lammers, Westchester, NY (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:53 AM)

Obama needs to get crack'n on his TV ads to counter McCain's lies and negativity. One of Kerry's mistakes was waiting too long to get on the ball with his ads to counter the repuke lies.

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:53 AM)

So basically, Wisconsin is fine for Obama. Michigan is about where it was last time, so no major changes.

The issues are Colorado and Minnesota.

With Colorado, I believe it - in that it's an evenly divided state and a little change of mind makes a big impact. Having said that, the convention should make a big difference.

Minnesota...well, that's just weird.

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

Dan, New York, NY (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:54 AM)

Obama has gained grounf in each of the battlegrounf state except Colorado which is now a statistical tie.

Bush beat Kerry 52% to 46% in 2004, so beng tied at this point is not so terrible. If the Colorado polls continue to slip, then this may be one that stays red in Nov.

Ira, Freehold, NJ (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:55 AM)

Cracks are starting to show on Obama. People now see he's nothing but a showman with a hollow head. Obama do something? Oh, he doesn't do anything, he's just a roving dog and pony show. Just there to entertain the ignorant.

Megan Larson, Memphis Tenn. (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:56 AM)

Except for Wisc, all within the margin of error. This one is going to be very close folks.

Old Yeller (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:57 AM)

Hmmm...today I was surfing the news-sites looking for video of Obama on his European trip, and I ran across footage of McCain being interviewed in front of a cooler of CHEESE. Boy, was that inspiring. Then they had him in front of the DOLE juice rack, talk about subliminal messages. If people say they are voting for McCain, I think it can only be they are afraid of change, even if its for the better. I remember, the first President I voted for was Gerald Ford, because all I had known was having a Republican President. Everybody is "conservative" about something, we are all leery of change, but I think Obama's trip is making him look less like a roll of the dice.

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:00 AM)

Well, that's not good news. And the MN numbers seem a little crazy to me. That's way to fluctuation in one month. Also, it's Minnesota, they hate Bush.

DLH, Houston, TX (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:02 AM)

if you believe McWar gained 15 points in Minn. since last month when every other poll doesn't show it I have a bridge I will sell you.

jim GR (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:02 AM)

I can tell you that the people that I work with, people just aren't tuned into this election yet. It's only July. People are trying to go on vacations, get kids ready for school, busy attending weddings, etc. I can barely have a useful conversation about politics with anyone right now. Wait until September, after the Olympics and the kids are back in school...THEN people will begin to notice and they will see a STARK difference between Obama and McCain....and it WON'T be good for McCain.

Diane from Illinois (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:04 AM)

Stop the presses!! What a TREMENDOUS slide Obama has taken in these polls! McCain is SURGING (in more ways than one now)!

C'mon guys - it's like 2 points in each poll. Besides the latest Rassmussen poll shows Obama up 13 points in Minnesota.

Colleen, Ithaca NY (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:04 AM)

Other than Co how has he made up ground? Good grief if he gains .0010 of a point even if the change is in the MOE you view it as making up ground.

BTW in CO its basically tied. At what point will you start to point out the EC count...Oh only if McCain gets close that's right.

joe (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:05 AM)

Zogby polls show Obama with 273 electoral votes, McCain with 146 and To close to Call 119 electoral votes. There is some movement in some states, but the Obama lead has remained rather constant. Let's wait two weeks and see what people are thinking. Arizona is turning from Red to Purple. Obama has raised more money in Arizona than McCain. Let's just wait and see for a week or two.

Ron Indiana (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:05 AM)

Polls, shmolls.

A poll does not get me to vote one way or another. Back while getting my BSPS degree, I critiqued polling itself in a class dedicated to the subject. Though it was counter to what the instructor did for a living and taught, the points were accepted and the grade for the report was good. What were the points?

Polling fails to account for:
* People who screen their calls (a large portion of the population).
* People unwilling to participate but will vote.
* People who use cell phones as their primary phone.
* People who are usually not home.
* People who work nights.
* Young people who usually fall into one or more of the above categories.
* Minorities who usually fall into one or more of the above categories.

Also of issue with polling is the fact that despite the best efforts of pollsters, the wording of their questions often fails to hide their bias. It was one of the most difficult aspects of the class to come up with poll questions that did not lead the poll taker into answers the pollster was looking for.

Go to Rasmussin's site and you are likely to find a paid advertisement supporting John McCain. My guess is that this is a pretty common occurrence.
Isn't is counter-intuitive to think that a poll can be impartial if it accepts advertising dollars from a candidate? Hence my dilemma.

Polls will invariably be skewed to the views of:
* Older people
* People with 9 to 5 jobs,
* People with high, stable incomes (the most likely not to screen calls)
* People without social lives.

In other words, pollsters get likely voters who are by definition more likely to be Republican. I think it bodes very well for Sentator Obama that he is ahead in them at all.

Democrat (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:06 AM)

Honestly, I don't get it.

The Republicans had carte blanche for 6 years and the last two have done little to slow them. The economy is in the toilet, our reputation in the world is in the toilet, health care is out of reach, gas prices are through the roof and we're in two wars, one of which we were lied into and from which we can not seem to extricate ourselves. I know these people are not all wealthy with no children -- so WHY? I don't get it. Seriously.

I voted for Bush in 2000 -- now I pay attention. I would think that others would do the same - apparently not. McCain will be a disaster for this country.

Frustrating.

Mel (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:06 AM)

All of these results seem reasonable...except for that Minnesota number. Has to be an outlier. A 15pt shift? Nothing has happened in the last month to cause that much movement. Pollster.com average for MN - prior to this poll being released - was Obama +16. Has to be an outlier. MI and WI are status quo and Colorado is acting like a true swing state. (FWIW, Rasmussen's poll from earlier this week showed Obama slightly ahead in CO, so we're probably looking at a tie ball game in that state...and that's likely been the case for months)

OGLiberal (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:08 AM)

I hate to say this but McCain seems angry with the press . I guess having one reporter and one photographer and rumor has it that the reporter was the photographer made him mad. Yo Dragonfly 777 nice that you use the numbers of the lord sad that you used them to spewl hate , do Christians a favor and Buzz Off.

Brian M De. (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:10 AM)

Yay Team McCain!

Finally, some good news! Something to say other than
"the surge worked" over and over and over again.

This is a GREAT DAY FOR AMERICA!

P.S. Why no daily mention of the Gallup Daily tracking anymore?

I miss all of the in depth analysis of the meaningless changes in this fairly erratic clunker of a poll ("Despite the fact that John McCain has no economic ideas and his foreign policy has been completely discredited, he is still within two points of Barack Obama on the Daily Tracking Poll) . . . you guys are slipping! :)

Nashville_fan (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:12 AM)

There is a flaw in some of those polls. No way is McCain getting 41%, 43%, and 45% of the 18-34 vote.

This might be the case of land line vs cell phone. Even then... I still doubt these polls.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:13 AM)

I get so frustrated trying to make some sort of comment - - - - never "published".

But this is something we all need to remember.

Don't you realize that the work "cocky" is just one step away from "uppity"? I was raised in Jim Crow South - - - - - - - and THAT is exactly what it is.

Prejudice in ANY form should NEVER be a part of this nation.

If only 13% of this country likes the way things are going now - - - why is there only six points separating McCain and Senator Obama? Where are our brains?

I support Obama with every once of my being - - - I don't like where we are and I am afraid of where we will be going if Senator McCain is elected our President.

pj - cornfields of Illinois (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:14 AM)

A 15 point swing in Minnesota? One of those polls is wrong.

Neither here nor there - when the commercials hit showing Obambi giving speeches in Germany to adoring German socialists, and visits to troops who laugh at his pansy arse, this election will come back to reality.

Jaibones (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:14 AM)

this flies in direct face of the gal;lup survey of the purple states...Gallup has him making large gains.

dl (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:15 AM)

THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION

By Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato

"Signs of Barack Obama's weaknesses allegedly abound. The huge generic Democratic Party advantage is not reflected in the McCain-Obama pairings in national polls. Why, according to the constant refrain, hasn't Obama put this election away? A large number of Clinton supporters in the primaries refuse to commit to Obama. White working class and senior voters tilt decidedly to McCain. Racial resentment limits Obama's support among these two critical voting blocs. Enthusiasm among young voters and African-Americans, two groups strongly attracted to Obama, is waning. Blah, blah, blah.

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up."

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008072401

Michael (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:17 AM)

Megan Larson, Memphis Tenn. (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 10:56 AM)
Cracks are starting to show on Obama. People now see he's nothing but a showman with a hollow head. Obama do something? Oh, he doesn't do anything; he's just a roving dog and pony show. Just there to entertain the ignorant.
What you fail to see is thee lewd remarks you make borders on racism. Obama is not a minstrel…on, the contrary, he’s educated.

Beverly in Chicago (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:18 AM)

Yesterday the right leaning Rasmussen Poll had Obama up 52 / 39 in Minnesota and 50 / 47 in Colorado. Something is wrong with the Minnesota result,,,

jen (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:19 AM)

I keep wondering about the percentage of population in these states which has only cell phones. As I understand it, they don't get polled in these studies.

It might be good for Chuck Todd to speak to whether this is a valid concern and perhaps look at comparison between Colorado and Wisconsin cell/pop as a way to normalize these different results in states that otherwise should have similar numbers.

j ferguson, Deale, MD (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:21 AM)

Jesse Jackson, Chicago (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:21 AM)

One interesting stat:

23% of voters said they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age.
but only 4% of voters said they are less likely to vote for Obama because of his race.

"Which is the best way to help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil?"

A) Nuclear power ~8%
B) Drilling ~18%
C) Renewable energy ~56% !!
D) Strategic Reserve ~6%
E) High milage cars ~8%

Very telling. That many people, even Republicans, were supporting Renewable energy. Hopefully the government listens and stops with this stupid Oil drilling fight and works to get something done on Renewable energy.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:25 AM)

that's not the MN i live in....

but then i live outside the "republican convention" district

opinion in my northern 1/2 seems pretty fixed for obama

teopa (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:26 AM)

I tend to agree with poll, schmolls...

I hang up on polling calls because I'm simply too busy to waste time answering them. They seem to call at dinner time or when I'm helping the kids with homework.

Polls don't poll people whose prime political philosophy is "My vote is none of your business".

Kath, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:29 AM)

I live in MN. Trust me, no way is McCain going to win MN.

What we don't know is sample size, questions asked, times called ages surveyed. I wouldn't put MN in McCain's corner.

sotiredofignorance (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:30 AM)

I live New Jersey. Yesterday, the most recent prssidential poll was realeased with Obama aheead by 14%. What was amazing to me was an incredible 39% of those polled said they were uncomforatable with the positions of his past pastors.

If it's still on the minds of the voters of a fairly liberal state, then there must be some discomfort with it across the country, especially in Appalachia the rural south, and low info voters.

Ira, Freehold, NJ (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:32 AM)

Ah, the pleasure of living in a consistently Blue state like NY....no one polls me, no campaign ads, but, DNC all over the streets by my job in NYC asking for my money.

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:32 AM)

I am from MN and I'll be honest. This is NOT McCan't country. It will be a blowout for Obama here. So, disregard that poll. Thanks.

MN Voter... (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:33 AM)

No way is McCain winning here in Colorado. Everywhere you go, there are signs and enthusiasm for Obama. Obama will win here with relative ease.

Rick R., Colorado Springs (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:36 AM)

This set of polls seems pretty dubious.

iowan (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:37 AM)

wow, the libs sure love the messiah. too bad it's all a facade.

tom, phila, pa (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:40 AM)

You can have poll after poll that go up and down, right and left, but in the end, democrats will come to realize there are specific issues important to them that they can't give up on and they will vote their party. There are also many independant souls like myself who will rationally look at the candidates in respect to certain issues, and remember how this last republican administration has not only been an embarrassment but has done damage to our country economically, who will fall in line with the democrats in what may be a landslide beyond anything we've ever seen before. There are also more dissatisfied republicans than the polls show...if you listen closely to republican pundits, it's in their voice, their words and on their faces.

Joan in Iowa (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:43 AM)

What a collection of morons....where do I start?

Gaffes: Anybody that would ever CONSIDER Obama cannot say ANYTHING about a McCain gaffe without being a huge hypocrite. Obama? With his "57 states" comment, "Israel is a friend of Israel" comment, and countless others? If it is not on the teleprompter, be scared...be very scared....

Energy: Renewable energy? Lovely idea. Practical? Not in your kids lifetimes. Yes, it is all noble and "green" to squack about, but then the ugly realities come up...such as, it is just a drop in the bucket, folks. We could line the entire western half of the United States with windmills, and they would not even power...the western half of the United States. Get a grip. The United States uses 20 million barrels of oil DAILY. Yes, conservation in nice. Yes, moving to a hydrogen platform is the long-term solution. But do you know just how many gas stations, pipelines, etc there are in the States to support the current infrastructure? And how long it will take to make the transition? Yes, we need to get started - quickly. But a little realism is in order here. Even if "fast tracked", you are talking about 20-30 years. In the meantime, drill here, drill now, and stop sending my money to middle eastern madmen.

Paul, Columbus, GA (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:46 AM)

These polls are all over the place, just in the past few days I have seen Obama up 8 in Ohio (PPP) McCain up 6 in Ohio (Rasmussen), Obama up 13 in MN (Rasmussen) Obama up 2 in MN (Quinn). I would agree that people screen and they are missing a big portion of people particularly young that only have cell phones. It is no wondering in the last 2 election cycles that there have been wildly inaccurate polls. Look to what the camps are saying inside, and how the candidates messages are coming across, this will tell you how they feel the election is going. Right now, based off the campaign messaging I don't think the McCain camp feels they are close.

Logan, Des Moines, IA (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:46 AM)

We need to ignore the polls. I am a middle-aged (over 40) white woman with no home phone (totally cellular). My brother doesn't have a home phone - same reason. In the under-40 demographic (right down Obama's chute) the percentages are significant enough to skew any poll.

Add 2-3% Obama to any poll on this, plus another 2-3% because the likely voter forumlas tend to discount youth vote, which Obama will pull higher than the averages in previous elections.

Virginia, Winchester, VA (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:50 AM)

Will you angry bitter old white people please realize that john mccain wants to take away your social security and medicare. He has a better idea for that money.

Spend it on defesne contractors and funerals for your kids and grandkids...enjoy the free flag at the end

Rojer Ramjet (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:51 AM)

Relatively speaking..Obama had a "tough" June. Remember the Iraq "refine", FISA, and "moving to the center"...he was, in truth, on the defensive. But July has been a whole new ballgame and I also think it has been a turning point. Obama's positions have now been vindicated and he can challenge McCain on more sure footing...not to mention McCain mini-implosion (emperor has no clothes moments) as of late and the polls in 3/4 weeks will be very interesting.

CJ (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:51 AM)

Well here's my 2 cents....
I don't put much in the polling, because the numbers are so skewed. So either side can needs to keep that in mind.
Also, whether or not any of us like it, this race is going to be EXTREMLY close. I foresee Bush/Gore again.

Independent Texan (Sent Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:51 AM)

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