Obama is up on Karl Rove's map

Posted: Friday, July 25, 2008 1:55 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: States, 2008, McCain, Obama

From NBC's Mark Murray and Adam Verdugo
According to Karl Rove's new electoral map, Obama is leading McCain, 272-183 -- with 83 electoral votes in the toss-up category.

Note that the map is as of July 23, so it doesn't take into account the recent Quinnipiac polling in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. But per this map -- right now -- Obama could lose every toss-up state (Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada) and still win the presidential election.

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Comments

Even Rove knows who the winner's going to be, even though he had originally planned for Republican dominance for the next thousand years or so as recently as 1996!

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:01 PM)

I never thought I would ever utter these word, but , Rove is right. What part of a "new political map" are'nt you guys getting?

Leni Cavaletto,Michigan (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:02 PM)

McSame only says a noun, a verb, and the surge.

justthinkinoutloud (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:03 PM)

Interesting....

Nine of 12 targeted Republicans running in the most competitive Senate races this fall are either skipping the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., or have not decided whether to attend.

Among those who will not attend are Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is not close to presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is a McCain loyalist. Stevens and Collins will use the convention week to focus on their campaigns.

Also sending regrets is former Rep. Bob Schaffer of Colorado, running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard.

Six others -- Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Gordon Smith of Oregon and challengers John Kennedy of Louisiana and Rep. Steve Pearce of New Mexico are still on the fence. Their spokesman offered responses ranging from "there are no plans yet" to "no decisions have been made

Charles (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:04 PM)

If a democrat had put this out it would be called propoganda.

This is Karl Rove, one of the most despised men in America. The architect of th Bush campaigns.

Who'd have guessed, Rove putting out a press release favorable to Obama.

Ira, Freehold, NJ (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:04 PM)

McCain is toast.....even if the media ignores it!

TiredofMcCainsFreeRide (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:05 PM)

donna:

If Olbermann had an audience, other than a little tiny one, he wouldn't be stuck in a corner at MSNBC (MicroSoftNationalBarackCorporation).
Richard, Washington State (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 1:26 PM)
………………………………………………………………………………..
The show is the highest-rated program on MSNBC. Countdown has been referred to as the "flagship" MSNBC franchise, so much so that on February 15, 2007 Olbermann received a four-year contract extension which includes two Countdown primetime specials on NBC. Countdown posted a 77 percent gain in total viewers (52 percent in viewers aged 25 to 54) for the first quarter of 2008 over the first quarter of 2007 in the 8pm timeslot, Bill O'Reilly's gains during that period were 5 percent.

A little research goes a long way.

Ira, Freehold, NJ (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:05 PM)

OUCH!!

It would be interesting to see Karl's action plan for McCain path forward!

GA GUY (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:05 PM)

You're all wrong. That map is going to be totally blue on the day after the election. Unless, of course Diebold is up to its usual tricks. The landslide for Obama will be so large, however, the areas Diebold controls will be obvious.

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:05 PM)

Stand-by for a major surprise. The WH cannot afford anyone but McCain taking a hard, close look at what's been going on under GWB and this is going to too much even for those old pros to fix at the polls.

McCain is going to "win."

Wait and see (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:05 PM)

Can you say "invasion of personal spiritual privacy"???

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/25/israeli-paper-publishes-obama-western-wall-prayer/

Evidence (a lot of) the media is disgusting: they took Obama's prayer out of the Wall to read it. I'm not religious, but that's just outright disrespectful. First Read, REPORT THIS.

P, CA (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:06 PM)

The news report I just saw on MSNBC was ridiculous. So some conservative bloggers want to see a thesis Obama wrote at Columbia University 25 years ago. Who gives a crap what they want. If we are going to go through every stupid document someone doesn't even have I think we should see every grade that John Mccain made at the Naval Academy and have all his less than desirable teachers comments on display on the nightly news as well.

Rod, Fort Mill SC (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:06 PM)

I understand the posts should be on message, but first I'd like to comment that Huffington Post has published the note Obama placed in the Western wall. Evidently the note was taken by a nearby person and given to the newspapers who published it. It is in Barack's handwriting and is authentic. Evangelical Christians may wish to take a look.

The Karl Rove numbers are very close to Zogby numbers who have Obama winning with 272 EC votes.

Ron Indiana (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:07 PM)

What's interesting is that McCain never gets close to 270

George (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:07 PM)

Noting that this is labeled as Karl Rove's Map, I'm a little leery about these results. Nonetheless, I'm pleased to see that Obama is ahead. Also, I don't think Obama will lose all the toss-up states that is listed in your post and he will be without a doubt the next president of the United States.

Leroy, Woodbury, NJ (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:07 PM)

I'd like to know who these morons are voting for McCain.He is Senile old man.

Some of you actually want this senior citizen to run our country ?????
I wouldn't want him to drive a car.

Woman4Obama (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:07 PM)

Ok, So even Karl Rove thinks Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America. The State of the Union will be STRONG!

Cross in Margate, FL (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:07 PM)

Mr. Rove should be in jail. I believe that Sen. McCain should be asked if Mr. Rove is indeed a traitor since he outed a CIA agent. Mr. McCain likes to throw traitor accusations about so I figured that maybe the press would like to serve him another softball so he can look like a "maverick" again. To Ron in Indiana, I see you know about the creature from Jekyll Island. I am impressed sometimes by the awareness of some of the posters on this board. It lets me know that there are others out there who haven't been dumbed down and made victim to America's ever declining education system. I also am continuously disappointed in the lack of depth of most of the conservative leaning posters. I assume it is difficult to defend a candidate like McCain who is on every side of a position. Look at how well Carly Fiorina and Mark Sanford have fared as surrogates.

C.K. Steele Fort Lauderdale, FL (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:07 PM)

Karl needs the rest home and the basket weaving class Bush promised ....retirement with deignity he deserves..

Bill Jones (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:08 PM)

Well, by all means, let's put our faith in a "Karl Rove new electoral map". Pleeeze. Even if is showing Obama in the lead, the key words here are KARL ROVE people. I'm going to be more interesting to see what kind of bounce Obama's trip overseas will bring in the next couple of weeks. Unless people are truly, truly stupid, it should be a big one.

Diane from Illinois (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:08 PM)

Why does Karl Rove have a map? Is he part of the mccain campaign? Although, I do like his maps results,we can get this information from 'fivethirtyeight', 'electoral-vote.com' and 'realclearpolitics' so we don't need Rove's input. Thanks anyway!

Sidenote: mccain's speech is nothing but an attack on Senator Obama. mccain has no agenda other than to try and discredit him. He is a sad,pathetic and mean-spirited, sarcastic liar. He voted against the GI Bill and is talking about taking care of the vets?! What a liar! A major liar!

Mcain is lying to the American public right now on TV (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:09 PM)

Karl Rove: the chief architect of the least popular president since polling was invented.

Guys, remind me why you link to him?

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

Dan, New York, NY (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:09 PM)

Got to like that.

Ohio has gone from the tipping point state to seemingly something less critical, as had Florida before it. The dynamics of this year's map are different.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, its probably over and a McCain electoral landslide. Same if Obama wins Ohio - electoral landslide (which frankly is the more likely result of the two).

Because Obama (or if not him, then current situations) has expanded the map, we're looking at multiple Obama paths to 270. Win the "conventional" blue states plus any couple of a fairly large group of others.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:09 PM)

What is happening with the Morning Joe show? Someone PLEASE TELL ME!!!
I really don't like that show because of his self-righteous RANTS, how he over talks everyone and tries to make them and their opinions seem so unimportant.

Please give me the 411 !!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks ;-)

Please give me the 411 (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:10 PM)

lying joe wants to know why Obama isn't wiping McCain out in the latest polls. In a year when dems nominee should sailing to victory. Simple lying joe, people like you, whites that would never vote democratic, this fact probably rises 20% because Obama is a black democrat.

pab, alabama (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:10 PM)

Diane, ILL: I just wanted to make it clear that in my opinion, I don't believe Keith and Rachel are out there campaigning for Senator Obama. As a matter of fact, they were quite upset with him on his FISA vote. It is my belief that they will continue to fight him if they feel he is not being loyal to our Constitution.

That was my point. We live in a democracy. They would like to keep it that way.

Someone somewhere in the mainstream media needs to talk about real issues - Iraq, Blackwater, Halliburton, treatment of our troops, emotional problems with our vets. Real stories.

Fair and balanced is useless. It is the truth we need. Where ever we can get it.

Thanks to all for the compliments. Keep up the good solid work. It's such a pleasure reading everyone's points of view.

The Yankees are coming. The Yankees are coming.

Pat, Beantown, MA (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:10 PM)

Per the Huffington Post: An Israeli newspaper supposedly retrieved the note that Obama left in the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.

It read:

Lord,

Protect my family and me. Forgive me my sins and help me guard against pride and despair.

Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just.

And make me an instrument of your will.

A man of God asking the Lord for guidance to do what is right. Asking to be kept humble.

Sure sounds like a terrorist to me!!!!!

Ira, Freehold, NJ (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:10 PM)

FR - are you serious? Karl Rove - you are relying on Karl Rove's map.

OK - that's it - We have no Democrats have no venture to rely on

Conservatism - a form of destruction and evil.

Karl Rove?? - are you serious (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:10 PM)

Much as I'd love to welcome this as good news, just the mention of Karl Rove gets my gag reflex in full gear.

Hey, Karl, put down the map and go answer the subpeona you received from Congress like a good little boy!

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:10 PM)

Ok let me get this right - Karl Rove is evil, terrible, the brains behind President Bush and a liar. But all that can be forgotten and now that he predicts an Obama victory he is suddenly an insightful and knowledgeable politician.

Every day the "liberal" press proves the likes of Rush correct with their hypocracy.

This most likely won't be shown (MSM only respects the freedom of speach of those that agree with them all others must be silenced) but I figured I say it anyway.

Your point is? (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:11 PM)

Hey Karl, you and your policy positions have helped make a mess of this country. But I'd take this poll.
Getting Ohio and maybe Missouri will be even better along with shocking everyone in Virginia.

Roofin Reality, Houston, Tx. (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:11 PM)

Priceless!

Lauri Smalls, Providence, RI (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:12 PM)

Senator McCain, to help you through this campaign, I've prepared a "cheat sheet" for your reference. In case you lose your place with the teleprompter, just refer to this list - it works just as well as your prepared remarks!

MCCAIN'S TALKING POINTS:
Rhetoric
Surge
Flip-Flop
Surge
Liberal
Surge
Experience
Surge
Judgement
Surge

ujw, ny (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:12 PM)

McCain today is touting the need to not set timelines for Iraq'i U.S. troop withdrawls. Instead he claims we need to listen SOLEY to the military. Well John McCain if the Iraq's want a timeline, and they are a sovereign nation, then I would expect we should listen to them. How arrogant are you. The word SURGE has taken on a mythical tone. According to you ONLY you supproted the surge. I guess it also means that if you would of utilized judgment in the first place you would of not voted for the war in Iraq. Well you did not and because of it we needed the surge. The surge is one piece of the puzzle in the Iraqi conditions that exists today. The truth is that today the Iraqi's want us out within two years. Unless you can claim they are a commonwealth of the U.S. we should and must leave.

Terry, Great Plains (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:13 PM)

I would not believe Karl Rove for any amount of polling percentage points!

He is the most devious man I have ever heard of in politics. I don't know if he has a degree in psychology, but in by my estimation, he has a doctorate in manipulation.

He is consumed by evil.

donna (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:13 PM)

The world would be a much better place without Karl Rove.

MiddleTN (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:14 PM)

KARL ROVE THE ARCHITECT OF THE WHAT EVER WENT WRONG TO HARD WORKING AMERICANS, NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR FROM HIM

KARL ROVE TURNED POLITICS INTO THE DIRITIST GAME IN HISTORY WE CAN DO WITHOUT HIS INTERFERENCE.

Sandy, AR (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:16 PM)

That's funny, at this time during our runs for President, the map showed the same thing.

J. Kerry, A. Gore, M. Dukakis (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:16 PM)

Give it a rest. The only way McFool could win, is by cheating. We've seen it done in 00. A fraudulent election can certainly happen again. Otherwise, this is Obama's election to win. Even if he isn't in office for a second term.

Mark,

I love how you try to keep balance between both candidates. You are the only one on this site, that doesn't seem to hold any bias. That's good to see. Keep it up.

Californian for Obama (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:17 PM)

Lots of raging liberals here today. Nice to see some things never change.

Cody Southwell, Davenport IA (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:17 PM)

That fat slime ball Rove can try every dirty trick in his play book; and they just won't work. Karl should focus more on his problems.

The voters are more savvy; thanks to the GOP disinformation and the their choosen Early Alzhemier's candidate.
BTW: Where's the Veep choice?

Beverly in Chicago (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:18 PM)

And the BUMP is starting he shot up in gallup and Rasmussen today.....and the bump isn't done....a 6 point National lead is a landslide electorally

We cannot afford a 3rd term of bush and we have tried STUPID for 8 yrs, let's try smart this time!!!!

tr (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:20 PM)

Thx Ira, I've noticed conservative posts generally count on premises & disinformation.

Which is why I really resent how the MSM parrots right wing talking points that are conviluded at best.

Has Katie Couric challenged McCain on his redefinition of the Surge, that include the Anbar uprising? Or is she still trying to get Obama to admit the surge was a success?

Al in LA, CA (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:21 PM)

People keep talking about the Quinnipiac polls, but those polls are flawed. They were conducted over the course of a week -- from the 14th to the 22nd. I know that Quinnipiac U. is a respected pollster, but even the best get it wrong sometimes. They never should've polled for a week, because it increases error. There's a general consensus among pollsters that the most accurate polls are conducted over the course of 1-3 days.

Joe NY (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:21 PM)

If the Media is going to Quote Karl Rove the very one responsible for the mess that hard working Americans and those in proverty are in, we will just STOP watching the news.

There is no room for this man's distain for American lives or their livelyhood

Anyone with this much deceit and hurt of people all over the world should not be able to sleep at night, but I bet he sleeps like a baby.

Angela, MS (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:21 PM)

Mcain is lying to the American public right now on TV writes: "Why does Karl Rove have a map?"

He does because the Supreme Court has ruled that owning maps is an individual right protected by the Constitution of the United States. Owning maps had been illegal in Washington DC, but now that law has been struck down. Barack Obama though has vowed to make maps illegal again.

If maps are made illegal, then only criminals will have maps.

From My Cold Dead Hands (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:22 PM)

Ira,

Thank you for sharing Senator Obama's prayer pulled from The Wailing Wall.

Let us all say Amen.

donna (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:25 PM)

Wait, the chart said a week ago he was 296 electorals too, why didn't you report that? Thats an insane landslide!

Obama FTW (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:25 PM)

Movie Quote that sums up this week for me. Please replace the name Bob with John; and Bob Rumson with John McCain. This is from the movie American President (Michael Douglas as President Andrew Shepherd) “…I've been operating under the assumption that the reason Bob devotes so much time and energy to shouting at the rain was that he simply didn't get it. Well, I was wrong. Bob's problem isn't that he doesn't get it. Bob's problem is that he can't sell it! We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them. And whatever your particular problem is, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections. You gather a group of middle-aged, middle-class, middle-income voters who remember with longing an easier time, and you talk to them about family and American values and character…”

In the absence of a message on what John McCain can do for us; he has become Bush. He will deliberately misstate facts and use pretzel logic to create controversy where there isn’t any.

Please, my fellow Patriots and Americans, do NOT let these tactics of the past eight years succeed. Stand up and have your voice heard. We NEED the world community to help us with Global issues. Inherently that will free us up to focus on the domestic ones. Seek truth and knowledge for yourself and don’t let them spoon feed you the same, tired points. Our future depends on it AND the future of our children, too!

Clara K, Kansas City, MO (Sent Friday, July 25, 2008 2:25 PM)

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