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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



McCain vs. Obama: The state of the race

Posted: Monday, July 28, 2008 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro

Bloomberg's Al Hunt looks at this tweener period between the primaries and the general, and notes that Obama appears to be winning this middle period. Hunt also previews Obama's August a bit. “Obama's eight-day trip to the Middle East war zones and Europe was almost perfect. The Democratic candidate looked and sounded presidential and reassuring, while avoiding missteps. The contrasts, often unfairly, with McCain at home were stunning. One looking vigorous in a helicopter over Iraq, the other in a golf cart with former President George H. W. Bush -- 155 years of age between them.”

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the importance of Barack Obama's speech in Berlin and the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which has Obama leading John McCain by six points.

Hunt also previews Obama’s August a bit, too. "The Obama camp anticipates a good next month. He's planning a ‘Biography Tour' aimed at filling in the blanks -- and alleviating concerns -- about his life and values. They have the skill and resources to do this well. The Denver convention plans are different, too. For the final speech, instead of speaking to a hall full of delegates as candidates of both parties have done for seven decades, Obama, 46, will deliver his acceptance speech outdoors before 75,000 people at Invesco Field. The symbolism is clear. (If Obama's luck holds, it will be a clear night, as they calculated it rarely rains in Denver in August.)”

“The convention's first three days will also be different. They want to downplay the parade of candidates trying to get television exposure, with evenings built around central figures. If it works, there will be simultaneous town meetings and forums around the country interactively linked to the site of the convention."

The cover of the NY Daily News: "Obama's poll vault." The paper cites Obama's nine-point (49%-40%) lead in the Gallup Daily tracking poll.

"With 100 days remaining in the race for the White House, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama says he has succeeded in expanding the electoral map in his race against John McCain, principally in southern and southwestern states but also in Montana and North Dakota. 'It doesn't mean we're going to win all those states but at least we're making it a contest and giving voters something to choose from,' he said in an interview aboard his campaign jet on the way back from an overseas trip. 'Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia are all states where we are competitive," he said, adding he is going 'toe to toe' with his rival in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada."

MICHIGAN: The Chicago Tribune’s Jill Zuckman notes that this could be a challenge for Obama in the fall. “This normally reliable state for Democrats may not be so reliable this year as issues of race and class cloud the election and voters say they still know little about the Democratic nominee because of a botched primary that kept him away.” 

OHIO: RNC Chairman Mike Duncan says that, although the map is rife with new battlegrounds, the old favorites are still king, "From a practical standpoint, Ohio is going to be ground zero again," he said during his visit there last week.

PENNSYLVANIA: A very good piece by the McClatchy folks taking a look at how economically depressed white voters in the northeast part of the state aren't yet on the Obama bandwagon.

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Only in America can you attack someone for not visiting the troops by showing a picture of Obama visiting with the troops BUT blurring out the troops to make a political point!
the state of the race is that Obama is in control while mccain is off message and losing his bearings

Video: McCains response to gay adoption...
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/27/mccains-response-to-gay-adoption/
or
http://sensico2.blogspot.com/2008/07/my-blogs.html
Lets have the liberal media give one candidate nearly 100% of the coverage. And of that, make sure there is no negative coverage. Do that for a few weeks, and wonders of wonders, that candidate leads in the polls. The MSM only needs to do that 2-3 more times, and gee, what you know about that, the guy is president.
Michigan is in play
The Michigan Democratic Party is (I want to cuss but wont) messing this up so bad.
1) the Primary
2) The Goveniors Tax Increase
3) The MDC getting caught trying to secretly admend the constitution
4) Detroit scandles.
This year should have been a breeze but the MDC is finding a way to mess it up.
I'm glad to see McNuts camp FINALLY took him to the dentist for a good tooth whitening.  Those yellow bottom teeth were really distracting!
Go Obama/Biden '08
Obama has a lead in Pennsylvania and a lot of room for growth still. Ohio is still a reach, but then Ohio would be the icing on the cake rather than a must win for Obama.
The economically depressed white voters are only doing themselves a disservice if they vote for McCain. McCain will make their life more difficult, perhaps, send them to a life of recession like George Bush did.

McCain doesn't care about this people, he only cares about war, i won't be surprise if these people decided to vote Republican. After all, the same people voted for George Bush twice.

I still can't understand why people will vote against their economic interest.

MORNING JOE was again begging anyone to agree with his DAILY OBAMA BASHING.  He is sickening.  Of course he is not a journalist, but a right winged commentator, but SICKENING nevertheless.  
RE: 9 point lead for Senator Obama

No matter how McSurge and crew try to spin this one, he's going down this November! And, why is he making Obamas campaign about the Middle East war now? Get over it, though the war is an issue, Americans have alternate problems.

Not this time McSurge, not this time.
Obama set up by pentagon?

Art Levine: Why Didn't the Obama Campaign Foresee McCain's Troop Smear?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/art-levine/how-will-obama-progressiv_b_115162.html
PENNSYLVANIA: A very good piece by the McClatchy folks taking a look at how economically depressed white voters in the northeast part of the state aren't yet on the Obama bandwagon.

**************************

I am so sick of this narrative. What is the purpose?Senator Obama is well up in the polls in Pa. That is what matters. Of course not every voter will support him.

Where is the articles about who doesn't 'yet' support Senator McCain? At least Barack still has a chance with these folks. McCain has no interest in focusing on their problems.



The McCritic camp is clearly jealous of Obama and it shows.  I don't know why the media is not asking the McGruff camp the hard questions.  

I want to see the media ask republicans about the last 8 years and how they are going to fix this mess?  If the media is serious about informing the American people, they media needs to get down int hese weeds, because Bush is not the only republican to support these terrible efforts, there is a line of them and before they come on the media set telling us about Obama they must tell us about the last 8 years...do your job media..let's see Pat Buchanon chop his way out of this one!
Has anyone given any thought to this conspiracy theory? The media outlets are owned by big business whose CEO's and others have a stake in this election. They don't want to pay more taxes, therefore an Obama presidency is not for them. Listen to all their talking points: Obama can't reach blue collar voters;Obama needs to reassure Jewish voters, etc. All of the pundits say, This election is a referendum on Obama. It is his to lose. How sad that the American public is so gullible. Four more years of the same policies and we are doomed.!
Yeah, McCain needs more coverage.  Let's really cover his discussions of non-existent countries, his confusing of Shia with Sunni, his flip-flops, and so on, and so on, and scooby-dooby doo!  This is just like the McCain campaigns carping over Obama not going to the Middle East.  THAT blew up in the McCain campaign's face!  
I've noticed a number of people that seem to demonize the word liberal and seldom see any reference whatsoever about conservatives or conservatism.  Is that because the GOP has become "unconservative"?  I don't like pigeon holeing myself but might say I'm a conservative socialist.  Living in Oklahoma being an independent doesn't make sense so I switch around...and vote for the best candidate.  This year Barack Obama and for any other Okies out there vote for Andrew Rice and dump that nut case Inhofe in the senate.
I'm still waiting for McCain's camp begins to focus on their own message instead of attacking Obama's. He's waited 12 years to be in this spot and he appears to have dropped the ball right now. Maybe he can show a little more charisma and passion; I want this election season to be a real contest, not a slaughter. I'm voting for Obama, but I really want to see McCain not continue to be so bland out there.
home foreclosures up 120% over last year and this due to continue under mccant
obama is the medias candidate.     you people give him unabashed support and coverage and your adgenda is obvious.    you support this hack and his liberal policies but you do not influence everyone.

Mccain is the OBVIOUS choice as he embodies experience, governmental service,  armed forces service,   foreign policy experience,  negotiating and diplomatic experience.

you may note that all his assets cannot be  gained by obama  as experience cannot be bought only earned over time.    

This is too important a position to put an inexperienced first term senator into.    one thaqt bends with the wind and will of his adversaries.  one that simply does not understand the complexities of diplomacy nor any of the other issues.    one that does not specify his course but modifies it at the whim of his adversaries and constituents.. one that has NO PRInciple or committment.    

Vote for Mccain  08   -   he's all we have,  there is no other choice.
McCANE is a grumpy and now pathetic old man with NOTHING to offer except complaints tied into negative and very misleading ads. He has no view of the future and has has no plan to get there anyway. He HAS has a storied past but his present and future do not exist.
A 490 million dollar deficit in the federal budget for the 2008 fiscal year, why would anyone vote for someone who thinks the policies of GWB is working and wants to keep them? Ohio voters you helped to put us in this mess by voting Republican in 2004 don't make the same mistake twice


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