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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Veepstakes: Kaine's up, Hillary's down

Posted: Tuesday, July 29, 2008 8:57 AM by Domenico Montanaro

Today’s Washington Post: “Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had ‘very serious’ conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine. Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) are also being seriously vetted by the campaign staff, according to sources with knowledge of the process.”

VIDEO: While neither presidential candidate has announced a vice presidential pick yet, each has offered hints into what kind of running mate he's looking for. NBC's David Gregory reports.

Meanwhile, the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney reports that “there is mounting evidence that Mr. Obama’s interest in Mrs. Clinton for the post has faded considerably, if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him. In conversations, Mr. Obama’s advisers discuss Mrs. Clinton’s role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Mr. Obama’s running mate.”

And here go again -- evangelicals are warning McCain that picking Romney could hurt the GOP ticket. "They say Mr. Romney lacks trust on issues such as outlawing abortion and opposing same-sex marriage and because he is a Mormon. Opposition is particularly powerful among those who supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Republican presidential primaries earlier this year. ‘McCain and Romney would be like oil and water,’ said evangelical novelist Tim LaHaye, who supported Mr. Huckabee. ‘We aren't against Mormonism, but Romney is not a thoroughgoing evangelical and his flip-flopping on issues is understandable in a liberal state like Massachusetts, but our people won't understand that.’”

More compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger and Carrie Dann…
DEMOCRATS: Sen. Joe Biden is outlining a $50 billion crime-fighting bill to bolster community-oriented policing, fight recidivism and capture child predators.  
 
The Richmond Times-Dispatch quotes Kaine's father-in-law, former GOP Gov. Linwood Holton, who says that he originally advised the Virginia governor against the vice presidency but now is warming to the idea.  
 
REPUBLICANS: McCain wouldn’t say whether he’d announce before or after the Olympics. “I can tell you that I will announce it just as soon as the process is completed but it won’t be driven by any other factors, the Olympics, or any other,” he said on “Larry King Live.” “It will be strictly on when we can arrive at a conclusion and obviously it’s tough because we have so many highly qualified individuals.”   

The Wall Street Journal looks at Sen. John Thune, noting he would bring youth and experience and was an early McCain backer. “Thune has received praise from social, fiscal and evangelical conservatives, garnering a rating of 100 from the American Conservative Union in 2006, and his selection to the national ticket would quiet some of McCain’s critics on the right.” 
 
The case is made for Rob Portman, the quintessential Washington insider. “The first obvious impact of picking Portman would be to quiet some of the whispers -- and even a few on-the-record comments -- from the permanent political class in Washington about the mistakes McCain is making in his campaign.”  
 
The head of the Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, Richard Land, said he wants Rep. Eric Cantor because he’s “telegenic, a very good speaker” and could increase the Jewish vote for McCain.

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Comments

Romney would be a great choice for McSame.  Especially if it keeps the evil angelicals home thumping their bibles instead of voting.
If Obama wants a guaranteed win, he needs to put Hillary on the ticket.
Johnny Mac has tough job, not because there are so many well qualified VP candidates, but because no one who is qualified wants to run with him. BHO's VPOTUS pick is much more important. Not because he has a higher chance to win, but because when ever someone challenges the establishment and those in power, we assassinate them. The Dem VP is important.
Gov. Tim Kaine  Passionately  Supports Barack Obama
http://youtube.com/watch?v=CkQ04Tk7dTk

Tim Kaine endorses Senator Obama in Spanish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqz9unCxJgM

Barack Obama in Bristow, VA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRM9KGfeEQg&NR=1

Fired Up for Change
http://youtube.com/watch?v=dywPZMlEues

He was born in Minnesota, attended college in Missouri, and serves as governor of Virginia - that's a swing state Trifecta! Harvard grad, civil rights lawyer, taught legal ethics, supports pre-kindergarten education, and takes a centrist (pragmatic) stance on fiscal policy, death penalty, gay marriage, and gun control. Draws votes from Republican leaning VA exurbs. Sounds like a pretty good match to me...all except for the "pro-life" footing - that may take the lustre off a bit'.

He does bring the hispanic vote to the table to prolly 80%. Not because he speaks the language, but because he can relate culturally. he's lived the life, and his faith matters a lot to these folks. But yeah, his thin resume would be a potential setback.
Kaine's position as governor of a state the Obama campaign hopes to make a key battleground and his background as a Spanish-speaking former Catholic missionary and civil rights lawyer make him a strong potential pick.

Kaine could serve as ambassador, his proponents say, to four key groups: Virginians, Catholics, working-class white voters, and Hispanics. (Kaine can be seen in one YouTube video endorsing Obama in proficient Spanish.)

The obvious stumbling block: a lack of foreign policy and Washington experience.

Kaine's position as governor of a state the Obama campaign hopes to make a key battleground and his background as a Spanish-speaking former Catholic missionary and civil rights lawyer make him a strong potential pick.
FR: Sen. Joe Biden is outlining a $50 billion crime-fighting bill to bolster community-oriented policing, fight recidivism and capture child predators.  

It used to be that the Republicans would stop these kinds of boondoggles in their traceks. No more. Now the Republicans spend like the Democrats used to do. And the Democrats? Now they spend even more.  Biden should just save us all a few bucks by jumping back on the train and heading back to Delaware.
Would Obama choose a reletive Unkown for VP? It dosent make sense that is the one issue he will be fighting in the general.
tom kaine has been my number one vp pick since i saw him on meet the press.  this guy know what hes talking about.
Personally I think Hagel is a better choice.

All's Obama has to do is run Ads on how McShame is against Choice, Against insurance paying for Birth control, Against Roe v Wade as well as ads talking about how McShame has NOT SUPPORTED THE TROOPS.
Gov. Timothy M. Kaine appears to be a good man. I don't know much about him, except what I have learned on MSNBC and other mainstream news sources. It seems that he and Obama have a good relationship, but I don't know if he brings enough excitement (or experience) to the ticket. I think Obama should really take his time with this decision and not rush into it. No matter who he finally chooses, I have complete confidence in Obama.
Good.  Let him not Hillary and lose.  Better him not pick her so she can't be blamed if he loses and it sets her in with the "I told you so" movement for 2012.  Regardless, whether I want him to win or not. I don't.  But it's going to be close race and I suspect he'll win.  Unless he does something stupid or McCain picks up more strength.  And really, Kaine would be a BAD idea.  No foreign experience and given Obama has none also.  You need someone if you don't pick Hillary who has been around the White House before.  Biden is also bad because he's more established in Washington than almost anyone besides McCain.  So think he's better off with Hillary because she brings those still not ready to choose Obama that supported her.  But it's up to him. But both Kaine, Bayh would be boring choices.  And bad one too.  If he wants to change Washington so much.  Choose someone different.  And if he picks Sebelius, he's only going to alienate Hillary voters.
Banko thanks for the info on Kaine.
So many good picks for Obama to choose from...  I'm still for Biden, or if not Biden, Hillary.  If he isn't going to pick Hillary, I feel strongly as do many others that he needs someone with military/foreign policy experience.  He is being labeled with the inexperienced tag, so his VP pick is very important, as is McCain's because of his age.  Hope McCain picks Romney!!!

Obama/Biden, 08
I would be surpirsed if Obama would chose Tim Kaine. I don't see what he would bring to the ticket, although I will trust his camp to make the best choice. They've run a flawless campaign so far and I'm not about to second guess them now! I would think they would chose someone with foreign policy credentials, though and I don't believe Kaine has that. It'll be interesting to see who they chose.
Don't you think Obama will have serious interviews with all his finalists?  I don't think we know yet who will be picked...until Obama tells us.

I'm quite aware that the CW is Romney.  But I've been thinking and saying for months that Romney will cost McCain Evangelical votes. McCain flip-flops on topics, and he waffles on his VP pick.  Does he go right wing to keep neocons happy?  Does he go mainstream and lose neocons?  He is in a no-win situation. Actually his choice may cost him poll numbers.
Hillary who?...why?...what?...where?...when?
Did we miss something here?...or are so many really still aurguing for a loser...There must be a lot of anger management trainees out there...

Hmm, Tim Kaine...i dont really see to that option.  As for me, Biden is a better option. That guy can spit fire when asked to.....
REPUBLICANS: McCain wouldn’t say whether he’d announce before or after the Olympics. “I can tell you that I will announce it just as soon as the process is completed but it won’t be driven by any other factors, the Olympics, or any other,” he said on “Larry King Live.” “It will be strictly on when we can arrive at a conclusion and obviously it’s tough because we have so many highly qualified individuals.”  
****************************************

Senator McCain has had since March to make his decision. Here he says it is hard to come to a conclusion. Last night one of his surrogates claimed he was ready, and could roll out his decsion in a moments notice. Which is it?

Yet again yesterday we got no message discipline from team McCain. First we got attack ads on Obama. Then it was him on an oil rig talking up more drilling. Then his mole removal. Then his agenda as to his veep selection.

Team McCain,

Give the people message discipline so that the electorate can follow along; not a three ring circus.
Hilliary is done stick a fork in it.Obamma destroyed her in the primaries with the race card how can a lying racist be vice president .Obamma is the light and she is the dark ages nothing good came from Bill and Hilliary Im surprised they let her stay in the democratic party."You know the republicans have been the party of IDEAS for the last 15 years" sound familiar it should OBAMMA said it. Do you trust a man that would throw a fellow democrat whos time had come under the bus for ego( hes a rock star) and now he swings center an embraces her ideas PRICELESS spin spin spin,tell me how just the death penalty is,tell me how bad safe clean abortins sre for women,tell me how the Church should be up in my business,sounds like a republican any rules we should know about for the bedroom no gay marriges?
just in mccain picks cheney as vp
Tim who???????????????????????? will be the biggest question asked.  Where's his experience to balance BO's very many weaknesses?
Obama has a bit of a struggle here.  How does he pick someone like Biden and then castigate McCain for being part of a dysfunctional Washington for so long-Biden's been there longer than McCain.  So that would leave a governor-and Kaine is pro-life.  How does that fit with Obama and the Democratic pro-choice stance?  Or another governor like Sebelius leaves him with no national security credentials and angers the Hillary supporters.  I think Richardson is the only choice for him.  
tom kaine has been my number one vp pick since i saw him on meet the press.  this guy know what hes talking about.
-----------
ok, camie, enlighten us since he's shown you he knows what he's talking about.  I read newspapers, online news and watch the more serious Sun political programs and, frankly, I couldn't tell you a thing about Kaine's positions.
Evangelicals (the political kind, as opposed to real evangelicals) are blowhards.

They're saying Romney would be a bad pick? Aren't they the same guys who said McCain would be a bad pick, and they're supporting McCain now.

The political evangelicals really ought to rename themselves as the evangelical GOP PAC. They aren't going to support the Democrat. They might not show up at all, but if they were going to vote for McCain without Romney, they'd vote for McCain with Romney.
I've come to the conclusion its Obama's election to lose (although I think he will do terrible) but if he picks Hilary I honestly see him losing in Nov....everyone hates her except the people who won't actually vote.

Anyone but Hilary
The obvious stumbling block: a lack of foreign policy and Washington experience.
--------------
Banko: apparently Washington experience not required and NOT WANTED according to BO's statements yesterday which would seem to rule out anybody from Washington.  See BO sort of painted himself into a box that he'd be kicking out "old" Washington and bringing in the new, that Washington can't continue to operate as it has in the past.  Therefore, how can he select anybody who is in Washington? And, Washington experience certainly not required for BO.  He has worked 143 days or approximately 5-1/2 mo of his senate term. In anybody else's job, how long til you think you'd be fired with that kind of attendance, production record?  Obama is a JOKE, FRAUD. Yep, he can give real pretty speeches but the problem is they don't have any substance.  EMPTY SUIT.
Hillary would be the better choice.
Hmm, Tim Kaine...i dont really see to that option.  As for me, Biden is a better option. That guy can spit fire when asked to.....
----------------
But Jay Jay Informed Voter Obama and his "lovely" wife have said Washington has to be different, you have to get rid of bi-partianship and the bickering. So how can "spitting fire" be a characteristic BO would want?  For Biden, though, that might be useful for a job at Circus Circus in Vegas if he wants to change careers.
Tim Kaine has been a substandard govenor of VA at best. Remember the $3000 speeding tickets? He can't even have the testicular fortitude to do something about the infrastructure in VA..He is all for raising taxes. He wants to charge us extra for car repairs, vehicle registrations, won't get rid of the extra dollar we pay for VA's Jamestown anniversary that was last year..I can go on and on. Mark Warner he is not
Barack Obama made it very clear he wanted to keep the VP vetting process quiet, even among those under consideration.  If Kaine cannot keep his mouth shut, close associates or not, HE IS NOT THE GUY FOR OBAMA.
I am totally in agreement with Community Organizer, who feels Bill Richardson is the best and most obvious choice.  Richardson brings everything Obama needs to the table.  He locks in the Hispanic vote, brings the entire SouthWest into the mix, and most importantly, brings the foreign policy experience that BO lacks.  He has been vocal in his support of Obama for a while, and actually DID commit to him during the Clinton wars.  There appears to be no downside to Richardson, yet he's not getting the ink.  Why?
Who cares who Obama picks ....I am one former democrat who will be writing in the best person to be our next President SORRY BOYS but HILLARY R CLINTON was and still is the best leader we could ask for...stop pushing OBAMA in our faces the more I see and hear him the more I think of AMERICAN IDOL.Obama will be GEORGE W BUSH all over again,I do not want someone that I can party with,or be at a concert with, I want someone who has my best interests at all times. That someone is Hillary Clinton and most of us know it.
When will someone tell the evangelicals to take a hike?
They insist in shaping election results?  Tax their churches once and for all.
History has shown that a VP pick has little impact on a race between two Presidential candidates. Could this time around be different? Perhaps. Especially in the case for McCain as the man turns 72 in August and has suffered from melonoma skin cancer. Such leisions have been around the jaw and face that are pretty darn close to the brain. But we hope him well.

Picking a person for VP who might be considered a  Washington insider is not that big a problem for Obama. That person will not be President and Obama can say he will be setting the agenda.

Perhaps Obama should line up those on the short list on the free-throw line and the person who makes the most baskets gets the nod. Seriously Obama needs to pick someone with a little pizzaz and excitement about them. No one boring or unknown please. Biden or Hillary or Richardson. Obama needs to remember that it was Richardson who came out and endorsed him early i nthe primary. And it did help. Plus Richardosn just seems like a heck of a nice guy. An African American and White President and a Hispanic VP. Now that would be a trip. Let's do it.    
I am so tired of hearing about HILARY AS VP PICK. I voted for Obama, and will again, UNLESS he puts that devil in disguise on his ticket. She couldn't even run a campaign, HOW would she do if we put her in the white house? I have no doubt he WILL NOT pick that useless woman as VP pick. Picking her would be as idiotic as picking Pelosi, who has DONE NOTHING in her position. I am all for a woman Pres, or VP but not either of those 2. Obama doesn't need Hilary to win.
Kim - The stupid in-state-only traffic tickets were a Republican idea. It started with a bill those guys put together.

Still, that doesn't excuse Kaine for signing the thing.
If Obama doesn't chose Hillary Clinton than this democrat is staying home. If this country was serious about change we would have chosen that path in 2000 or 2004.  
NOBAMA
Say something positive, if there is anything, about McCain
So, Bush had no federal experience and everything was ok with the repubs but now experience is the official argument, boy I wish experience was a major concern in 2000 for the repubs, we would't be in such dire straits now if they thought of this earlier. Perhaps experience is now important because Bush was such a screw up, nothing like trying to catch the horse after he gets out of the barn.
The repubs have great hindsight but no foresight, do we want a party that only looks back and never moves forward?
I think the only ones still floating Hillarys name are all on this board.  That ships sailed a long while back - it wasn't ever a serious consideration except to the goofs in PUMA or the few on the board.  Get real.


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