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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



New poll: Gender not a big VP factor

Posted: Tuesday, August 05, 2008 4:12 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Alex Wall
For all the chatter about the pros and cons of picking a female vice president, a new poll commissioned by Lifetime finds that women are not particularly likely to be influenced by the selection of a lady VP. In the poll, 55% of women say that Obama’s selection of a female running mate would make no difference to their voting choice, and 62% said the same of McCain. (A Republican woman VP could actually hurt McCain. A full 20% responded that they would be LESS likely to support the GOP nominee if he selected a female on the ticket.) 

Also in the poll, Obama leads McCain overall among women voters by 11 points, 49%-38%, although it's noteworthy that neither candidate breaks the 50% mark. In addition, Obama beats McCain in every demo except among senior women, who favor McCain by nine points. The presumptive Democratic nominee is also ahead with independent voters, 42% to 30%.

Among Hillary Clinton primary voters, 76% said they were voting for Obama and 18% said were for McCain.

Pollster Celinda Lake (D), who conducted the survey with Kellyanne Conway (R), says that Obama is outpacing John Kerry, who won the female vote by only three points in 2004. But she stressed that the Democratic nominee must pass the 50% mark to “put this election away.”

The poll was conducted of 700 women voters nationwide, with an oversampling of African-American and Latina women. And its overall margin of error is +/- 4%.

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This will make women happy about Mr. McCain

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/05/mccain-suggests-wife-part_n_117053.html

McCain Suggests Wife Participate In Topless Contest
Not to bring that up...but why an oversampling of minority women?  Isn't that real group that Obama was supposed to lose ground with being "older white women?"
Hillary supporters:

"Show us your ---"!!

Pretty offensive, right?  McAperape jokes about submitting his wife to a contest at which that is the oft repeated outcry.

Whoa. Did you guys intend to publish this poll? It's positive news for Obama, and it's counter to the CW pundits have been pushing to make it appear that the race is closer than it really is.

I guess the MSM better start slamming Obama some more. I can't wait to watch the evening news anchors spin this poll as good news for McCain. Not.
For those who wanted Obama to hit back, check out what he just said in Ohio:

http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/08/05/now-im-impressed/
Older white women will decide this election and everyone knows that. McCain will clobber Obama among white men and how much he fares among white women will make the difference. A New Zogby poll released TODAY showed that Obama lead among women eroding by 10 points and his support among democrats going from 83% to 74%. He is trailing among white women by big margins.

Stop the ANTI-HILLARY campaign. If Obama fails to pick Hillary as VP and loses the election by coming up short among white women, I hope you all stand up and take the blame.
The real thing of Cindy & Bid Daddy McWar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4X6XqNeF1o
I think gender is a big deal - this is, after all, the potentially next POTUS, should something happen to the actual President.

I want to give a shout out to Chuck Todd for his coverage today -- wish you had your own daily show, frankly... maybe YOU should be the new Meet the Press host? I thought your stint today was excellent - good guests, good questions and none of the opinionated bias that some on MSNBC push as "news"

I love Keith-O and Chris, too.
Just wanted to point out ( what you already know...but lets keep the positive news for Obama to a minimum) with a MOE of 4% Obama could have broken 50%.  regardless  49% is pretty close anyway
I agree with the majority of respondents.  Issues matter to me, not gender, when choosing a leader.

http://midwestmoms.blogspot.com
Thanks, Dan, for the link. Nice.

I don't understand why 18% of Hillary supporters could now support McCain. Are they not at all concerned about the ISSUES and policies she represented? Do they vote on personality alone & dig McCain's personality?? McCain's ideas are so removed from Hillary's -- I cannot understand any logical reason for moving from Hillary to McCain.
Well...I'll try to post again, but I've sent in at least 5 comments today, none of which has been posted.

If women are smart, they'll vote for Obama. He champions their rights, unlike McCain.
___________
A post I tried to send earlier:

The grandstanding Republicans are NOT doing McCain any favors...Even he said that lifting the moratorium on off-shore drilling is more for "psychological impact".  

How many people really want the headache of dealing with nuclear power plants all over the U.S.?  Every nuclear power plant built in the U.S. would be a perfect target for terrorists. And they're dangerous. Look at the problems the French are experiencing with their aging plants. (Google it; here's one article:http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=29441)

A vote FOR McCain is a vote AGAINST:

- safe solutions for energy
- oil independence
- clean beaches
- anyone making less than $250,000
- women's rights
- children's health
- preservation of the environment
- economic growth
- minorities
- a timely end to the Iraq war
- LOWER abortion rates
- sanity!!!!
Female Hillary Supporters voting McCain...you apparently feel its ok for you to make less money than men doing the same job...because that's what McCain supports when he voted against the equal pay for equal work bill!

McCain thinks women are dumb...heck, he called his current trophy wife a "C-ee yUo Next Tuesday"!
There is no doubt that Obama would carry women by larger margins than Kerry. Remember in 2004 Bush had them running helter skelter that Bin Ladin was heading down the playground to blow off kids' limps? Even with that kerry won.
Obama would soon cross the 50% mark. Wait until he  runs ads on McCain's voting records on wowen/child health care issues.
Thank goodness they finally did a poll for women only.  I am a white 65 year old female and have been for Obama since this has started.  I got so tired of being lumped in with women my age voting for McCain.  I feel so much better.
Among Hillary Clinton primary voters, 76% said they were voting for Obama and 18% said were for McCain. The party is healing due to Barack's leadership. I hope this poll makes your B-day happier.

Nobody, but Obama.
It's meaningless survey since it only represents 700 female voters nationwide - but it's encouraging to know that Senator Obama may not be doing as badly as the media and pundits would have us to believe.
Goodbye Sebelius, hello Bayh.
Another phony poll for a phony candidate.
We Hillary supporters don't want a woman, we want Hillary!!
Beth, TX (Sent Tuesday, August 05, 2008 4:37 PM)

Beth:

Good comment. And I agree. People have not really sat down and looked seriously at what kind of administration they would have if McCain who possesses a very rigid and suspicious view of the world were to be elected. It would be frightening to say the least.
this is laughable. McCain will take time off the campaign trail to show up for his day job. Ha, I see it when I believe it. He hasn't shown up to the senate floor since April.

voter


To McCains credit, since Reid is running the Senate, and nothing has gotten done in the last year, it's really hard to tell if they're in session or not.
His lead is back up to 4 and rising in the gallup daily tracking poll . Guess hanity and the game have to change there talking points agian , or i guess they can just keep lieing like they have been doing .
What happened to the statement that woman would not vote for Obama? The MSM keeps saying that this race is close BS, everyday we hear another group come out for Obama. Try as you may we know that Obama is winning with most demographic groups, most in the swing states, and a few red states. People are seeing that he is the best for this country. WE DESERVE A PRESIDENT WITH BRAINS !!!!!!!!!
If Gender is not a big VP factor, then its okay for the presidential candidates chose a woman.

Obama/Sebelius '08
WE COULD CARE LESS IF SEN. OBAMA PICKS A WOMAN, HE NEEDS TO PICK SOMEONE HE IS COMFORTABLE WITH AND BRINGS HIS EXPECTATIONS TO THE TABLE

SEN. OBAMA IS FOR WOMEN GETTING EQUAL PAY NOT LIKE THE REPUBLICANS AND JOHN MCCAIN WHO DEFEATED THE BILL 56-41 TO AGAINST WOMEN GETTING EQUAL PAY.

THE CASE AND ALL WOMEN SHOULD RESEARCH WAS ABOUT LILLY LEDBETTER WHO FOUND OUT THAT SHE WAS MAKING 40% LESS THAN THE MEN ON THE SAME JOB FOR 20 YEARS.  AS A RESULT SHE WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RETIREMENT, AND SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS.

JOHN MCCAIN REFUSED TO RETURN FROM NEW ORLEANS SAYING THAT IF HE AND THE REPUBLICANS SUPPORTED THE BILL TO GIVE WOMEN EQUAL PAY WOMEN WOULD FILE LAWSUITS.  INTERESTING IF THE BILL WOULD HAVE PASSED AND THE EMPLOYERS COMPLIED, THERE  WOULD BE NO LAWSUITS, UNLESS JOHN MCCAIN AND THE REPUBLICANS DID NOT INTEND TO ENFORCE THE LAW WITH THOSE EMPLOYERS WHO BROKE THE LAW.

HIS REPUBLICAN BUDDIES DEFEATED THE BILL 56-41 IN MAY 2008.  

HOW IN THE WORLD ANY WOMAN CONTINUES TO COME ON TV DAY AFTER DAY AND SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE REPUBLICANS AND JOHN MCCAIN KNOWING THAT THE VERY PEOPLE THEY SUPPORT REFUSED TO VOTE TO GIVE THEM EQUAL PAY IS JUST A MYSTERY.

For those who wanted Obama to hit back, check out what he just said in Ohio:

http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/08/05/now-im-impressed/
Dan, New York, NY (Sent Tuesday, August 05, 2008 4:23 PM)

------------------------------------------------

ROFLMAO!!!!!!
Here's why more drilling wont help:
Oil is a strategic resource, meaning we cannot currently do without it. OPEC controls and produces a restricted output to balance the world output at a certain level. If we produce more they simply produce less, this makes the 'supply and demand' economics argument completely worthless.
  Oil is a strategic resource and it is not our stategy that is controlling it, this is why our wealth is disappearing. This is why we need to break the addiction or lose our position in the world.
How about the new Obama smark down? I heard he called the Republican's talking machine ignorant. OOps!! The party of britney spears and Parris Hilton doesn't have any idea on how to fix this country.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akjXqfvLu28

Obama'08
"A Republican woman VP could actually hurt McCain. A full 20% responded that they would be LESS likely to support the GOP nominee if he selected a female on the ticket."

What would the numbers be for an articulate educated intelligent black female?

His base would be gone with the wind.
McCain has a low opinion of women and minority populations in general, that's become clear the more I hear of his past behavior. McCain is too arrogant and lacks the sound judgement necessary to be a good leader. The arrogance displayed by John McCain contributes to my opinion that's he's truly lost his bearings and may be good for nothing more than a bed in the nut house. The old geezer is on the brink of losing it and that's apparent the more he lashes out in his frenzied hatred for Obama together with trying to reestablish his "maverick" title. When you have to remind people of what you think you were, it's over.
Why don't I see Jeb Bush mentioned for McCain's VP?

He knows how to deliver votes -- wink, wink.
The thought of a potential First Lady offered up BY HER HUSBAND for a topless contest is disgusting.
I agree with Troy that "older white women" (like me) have a good chance of tipping the election one way or the other. As a former Hillary supporter, I can't fathom how anyone who supported her could POSSIBLY vote for McCain (just look at the issues, ladies), but let me also say that all the anti-Clinton comments made by Obamanites don't make it any easier for the diehards to make the switch. Thankfully, Barack has enough class not to make any disparaging remarks about his former rival's supporters, understanding that he needs every vote he can get.
I just wanted to repeat what Beth from Texas wrote and include a couple more things just in case people missed her post.

"A vote FOR McCain is a vote AGAINST:

- safe solutions for energy
- oil independence
- clean beaches
- anyone making less than $250,000
- women's rights
- children's health
- preservation of the environment
- economic growth
- minorities
- a timely end to the Iraq war
- LOWER abortion rates
- sanity!!!!"
- a transparent government
- As Beth alluded to, tax savings for the middle class as opposed to those making over a quarter of a million dollars and above. Everyone is asked to do something, sacrifice for their country except for the super rich.
Why?

-No taxes for social security recipients making under 50K. So, when you think of the taxes your retired mom will not have to pay with Obama, realize she will have to pay taxes with McCain. We should do something for our moms and dads that put us through school and kept a roof over our head.

Now, THATS TAX FAIRNESS!
The Gay Ole Party has been in the dark for as long i've been alive(53 years next week), so being in the dark for a few more month's can't hurt much more.

Chuck, your show today was a welcome surprise, maybe someday, your expertise will get You the nod for Meet the Press.

New electoral college poll has Barack up even more than last month. Seem's as tho America has seen the One & like what they see.

Delusional Thinking By Common Sense American's Is Over!!!
Given the many critical issues facing Americans this election cycle, I find it amazing that demographics such as race, and gender etc., will have such a large impact upon our vote come November.

********************
Adam wrote:

 My vote is for Obama, but why do we call people African American's when 90% of them have never even seen Africa? My ancestors can be traced back to Greece. So in this thought process, am I an Greek American because of it? If so, I am a minority and should have gotten some grants and whatnot for schooling. He is black people, NOT African American. People who were BORN in Africa and came to this country are African American! I hate the titles we put on poeple! He is an American plain and simple!
Adam, St. Louis (Sent Friday, August 01, 2008 10:07 AM)
**************************88

Adam,

Black describes a color. My shoes are black. I write upon a black board which is actually green. Do you follow me?

‘Black’ never adequately described the unique group of human beings stolen away from their homeland, and brutally enslaved against their will in America.

African Americans have had demeaning, and meaningless names such as Black, Negro,  Nigra, Colored, Coon, Jiggaboo, and *N-gg-r*, etc., imposed upon them against their will. It so happened that ‘Niger’, a river, as well as, an inland republic in W. Africa was the root of the offensive epithet *N-gg-r*. Illiterate bigots did not know the correct pronunciation of  ‘Niger‘ with a long ‘i‘, and ‘j‘ sound. They pronounced ‘Niger’, *N-gg-er*. In time their negative import, racist, and hateful intentions eclipsed all other nuance of the name, until only a bitter, attacking insult remained.

African slaves in America were denied education, and stripped of their names, history, culture, and religion, as a cruel tactic in their complete subjugation. The scene in the award winning mini series ‘Roots’, depicted the lengths to which American slave owners would go in order to separate their African slaves from any, and all knowledge of themselves, and their history; even if it meant whipping them to death. Kunte Kinte was lashed with the sole purpose that he should abandon the name given him by his people, and accept to refer to himself as ’Toby’,  the name his owner insisted upon.

Others in this country are referred to as Native American, Irish American, Japanese American, Hispanic, Italian American, Chinese American, Caucasian, (a person of the white skinned race originally living generally in Europe, western Asia, and N. Africa), etc. I have yet to hear anybody gripe about it. Yet many have taken issue with the fact that African Americans refer to themselves as such, with objections that are at least curious, and at worst hypocritically racist.

Given the fact that African Americans were denied self determination, and the pursuit of happiness in this country for 400 years, and were still rubber stamped with negative, derogatory labels like so much chattel 100 years after ’The Emancipation Proclamation’ was issued by President Lincoln, how is it that the decided throwing off of these brands, these insults for an honorable title finally settled upon by their general consensus in the late 1970’s is problematic for others who proudly point to their own ethnic background?

I celebrate the historically correct, and affirming title of ‘African American‘. It is a blessing.  With it’s use, we have all been made more comfortable. We can say, or hear, ‘African American’, without fear of offending, or being offended respectively.


Dear Women Who Say They Are Voting For McCain: Have you spoken to your daughters, nieces, aunts, mothers, female friends about your vote? Do they thank you because they will feel happy that their rights will no longer be protected. (Just wondering).
Troy Williams, St. Louis, MO., I don't know about your stat numbers (Republicans ALWAYS get more of the white male vote - EVERY election, and Dems more of women and minorities, except for maybe Jews and hispanics, but Obama has no worries there for the time being); but, where is the anti-Hillary campaign? I gave $20 to help put away her debt - what have you given, either during her pres. bid, or now that her campaign has been suspended? She's supporting, endorsing, and campaigning for the presumptive nominee. Will you upport him as well? If not, stop blaming your ignorance on Hillary Clinton, who opposes john McCain! Also, those recent negative ads (that McCain AND Cindy McCain promised he wouldn't engage in) making Obama look like he's attacking the white electorate by being "uppity" (celebrity) and accusing them of being racist when they clearly aren't, along with blaming him for the $4 gas (hell, elderly white women would believe the scary lack man capable being at fault for anything that's currently wrong), brought his numbers down. The truth, and persistence in defense, plus way more offense on the ISSUES, will level these numbers out.
Beth, TX, yes. I agree.
"I don't understand why 18% of Hillary supporters could now support McCain. I cannot understand any logical reason for moving from Hillary to McCain."
--Amy, TX

I suspect they were always Republican leaning who supported Hillary in the primaries because they thought she would be easier to beat in November.
I wonder if Cindy entered the pickle licking contest, too? EW.

John "Misogynist" McCain - role model? family values? just who you want your son to emulate?

This Sturgis thing is a perfect example of pandering to the audience... but in this case, I think McCain IS the GROSS PIG he's acting like.

"A lady VP"? Where are you guys? Mayberry?
Older white women will decide this election and everyone knows that. McCain will clobber Obama among white men and how much he fares among white women will make the difference. A New Zogby poll released TODAY showed that Obama lead among women eroding by 10 points and his support among democrats going from 83% to 74%. He is trailing among white women by big margins.

Stop the ANTI-HILLARY campaign. If Obama fails to pick Hillary as VP and loses the election by coming up short among white women, I hope you all stand up and take the blame.
Troy Williams, St Louis MO (Sent Tuesday, August 05, 2008 4:24 PM)

Troy, and didn't that same poll show BHO had lost 11% among Independents?  Truth is, tho, you can find a poll to say whatever you want.
As much as I would like to vote for McCain this is why I can't: http://kidsofqueers.blogspot.com/2008/08/dear-senator-mccain.html
There is something I just don't understand.  I am an older (85) white woman and I have supported BaracK Obama from the very beginning.  I'll guess there are many more who think as I do, we just aren't included in the poles.
Everybody wants to see themselves in office!!! (They just won't usually say so!) Gee, ..How hard is it, huh? Both candidates should ask a woman, ..and they should BOTH ask Hillary first! Better yet, ..just move over and let Hillary and Condoleezza Rice do the job right!
McCain keeps asking the question:
" Is Obama ready to lead"?  

The very same question should be asked of McCain ?  

Between his blunders, flip-flops, mis-statements, and mis-quotes, Its not hard to argue that its MCCAIN who isn't ready to lead.  McCain will just be the *front guy* -- a * talking head * -- and a not very good one at that --  for a bunch of be-hind-the-scenes managers, not unlike with Reagan or Bush, who couldn't do squat right without his brain --aka Carl Rove -- to do his *thinking* for him.
Let's all step back for a minute and remember...it is in the self interest of every major network, cable network, show host, pundit, newspaper and pollster to keep this election close and divisive. It's about ratings, market share and advertising dollars.
P.S.
Scrolling across the bottom of the screen last night on MSNBC was this all important poll number:
"Poll shows women would rather car pool with Obama over McCain 49%-38%."
If you like the way Obama's is doing so far, take a good look at one of the major females in his inner circle... The next time that she is presented on TV, notice her delivery and how she stays on message.

VERY IMPRESSIVE...

Obama/McCaskil '08


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