First thoughts: The Georgia test
Posted: Monday, August 11, 2008 9:25 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Georgia test: Russia’s assault on the sovereign nation of Georgia has become a 3:00 am moment of sorts in this presidential election. And so far, President Bush -- who was in Beijing watching the Olympics -- appears to be as frozen on how to respond as either McCain or Obama would be. This is Russia, not Iraq, and it's not like a military reaction (or a threat of one, i.e. symbolic movement of troops or ships) is the easiest answer. Indeed, instead of a 3:00 am moment, perhaps it’s better to describe this as a Cuban Missile Crisis moment, when we have to weigh long-term interests against a short-term problem. McCain tries to drive the issue today by making a statement at 9:00 am ET. Yet the Arizona senator is going to have a hard time making the case that Obama has a deer-in-the-headlights look when the Bush Administration appears to be acting more paralyzed than either candidate. Can McCain continue to be more hawkish on backseat driving Bush on this? Is it in McCain's best interests to have Bush and Obama being closer on this issue? Some key folks in Georgia appear to be disappointed in the US response so far, but will anything short of sending military assistance be acceptable to these folks? By the way, could Bush have looked any less comfortable having to answer questions about Russia-Georgia with NBC's Bob Costas? How disengaged is he from his job? OK, we know he's not disengaged, but he's certainly giving off that vibe. Finally, just asking: Did Joe Biden's stock just go through the roof with the Georgia crisis? Is Sam Nunn suddenly back on the short list?
*** McCain a celebrity, too? If you live in or near a battleground state, chances are you’ve heard the following McCain campaign line on your TV dozens of times: Barack Obama “is the biggest celebrity in the world.” Indeed, at a fundraiser last week, McCain even declared, “He is a celebrity and I am not.” But the truth is, up until this presidential contest, McCain has been one of America’s biggest celebrity-politicians. After all, he’s appeared on Saturday Night Live, had cameos in “24” and “Wedding Crashers,” and was the basis for the made-for-TV movie on McCain’s book, “Faith of My Fathers.” And now, the Obama campaign is counterpunching with a new TV ad (to begin running Tuesday on national cable) that highlights McCain’s own celebrity, including his appearances on SNL, Letterman, Leno, and The View. “For decades, he's been Washington's biggest celebrity. John McCain,” the ad says. Clearly, this celebrity stuff has gotten under Obama's skin, and that's why the campaign is fighting back a tad on this front. But how serious is this buy? It's cable-only for now so maybe it's designed solely for the cable chattering class.
*** Tone deaf? By the way, like good NBC-Universal employees, we spent much of the weekend watching the Olympics. And during the commercial breaks, we saw plenty of those Obama-is-the-biggest-celebrity-in-world TV ads hitting the presumptive Democratic nominee. But almost every other TV ad we saw -- whether it was from Audi, Coke, or the now foreign-owned Anheuser-Busch -- was positive and upbeat. Just asking: Are McCain’s ads tonally off for the Olympics? They stuck out because they were darker than every other ad. The good news: The ads stuck out. The bad news: The ads stuck out. It's a gamble. The message will get across, as all messages from constant negative TV ads do. But will McCain's own favorable ratings pay a price as well?
*** Lots of unanswered questions: The good news for Edwards is that many in the national press corps just don't have the resources to tackle this story at this time in the campaign. That said, there are a lot of inviting gaps in Edwards' story that will keep some journalists sniffing around this story for some time. For instance… Why did one day after Hunter's sister challenge Edwards to a paternity test did the woman suddenly decide she wouldn't let her baby be tested? Why the change of heart? Was there a quid pro quo? If Edwards told his wife about the affair when he said he did, why was Hunter still with the PAC and campaign? Why didn't Edwards apologize to Hunter in his interview? We could go on, but the Edwards response to everything these last 72 hours will probably be seen as the beginning of this story -- not the end. By the way, anyone trying to “war game” the Iowa caucuses without John Edwards and simply wonder if Obama would have still won need to remember there were a bunch of other candidates still in the race (Biden, Dodd, Richardson) and Clinton had some serious characteristic problems/challenges in the Hawkeye State. Remember, those Edwards voters were voting for change, something Clinton hadn’t figured out how to sell by January 3.
*** Veep watch: Former Pennsylvania Gov. (and Homeland Security head) Tom Ridge campaigns today with McCain in Ridge’s hometown of Erie, PA. Is Ridge a real possibility, despite his pro-choice views on abortion? Or is this a shiny metal object for us to ponder during this Olympics lull?
VIDEO: McCain and Obama must pick their running mates soon. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.
***
Downballot spotlight: With Obama in Hawaii and the Olympics going on, we’re going to spend this week looking at some of the more compelling downballot races this cycle. And today, we’ll start by noting all the Senate contests taking place in presidential battleground states. In Colorado, Mark Udall (D) faces off against Bob Schaffer (R); in New Mexico, it’s Tom Udall (D) against Steve Pearce (R); in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen (D) gets her rematch against Sen. John Sununu (R); and in Virginia, Mark Warner (D) takes on Jim Gilmore (R). All of these states are toss-up states in the presidential race, and Democrats appear to have the edge in all four Senate contests -- especially Virginia, which is looking like a blowout win for Warner. How will these downballot races impact the presidential contests in these states? Also, don’t forget about the competitive gubernatorial race in Missouri between Jay Nixon (D) and Kenny Hulshof (R) or the potentially competitive GOV race in Indiana, a state that could end up in the toss-up battleground by October.
***
On the trail: McCain begins his day in Erie, PA, where he tours a GE plant with Tom Ridge and then holds an employee town hall there. Later, he heads to Harrisburg, PA. Obama remains on his vacation in Hawaii.
Countdown to Dem convention: 14 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 21 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 85 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 162 days
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