Battleground: Registration wars
Posted: Tuesday, August 12, 2008 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
The Wall Street Journal takes a look at the voter-registration expansion happening in some battleground states, as well as how the GOP is moving to examine these surges in the voting rolls. "Republicans are moving to examine surges in voter registrations in some states. A Republican lawyers group held a national training session on election law over the weekend that included campaign attorneys for Sen. John McCain and other Republican leaders. One session discussed how party operatives can identify and respond to instances of voter fraud.”
“Republicans said they are particularly worried about prospects for fraud in Virginia and Pennsylvania, and are beginning to comb thousands of new registrations in those states for ineligible applicants. In some cases the huge numbers threaten to swamp their efforts -- and those of state and local governments to verify and process applications.
Election officials in Virginia and other states say there is no evidence of widespread fraud so far. Numerous studies have found fraud and other voting irregularities in past elections to be infrequent and generally not prevalent enough to influence the outcomes of most contests. Some Republican lawyers say that despite the huge numbers of new registrations in some areas, this year's problems could be fewer compared to prior years, because of improved procedures and tougher rules."
Speaking of voter registration, the Miami Herald takes a look at the massive increase in Dem voters in Florida since the primary -- nearly 300,000 new Democrats. "Regardless of how the voters got on the rolls, Johnson said the sheer number of Democrats is a concern this year -- as is the fact that more Hispanics are now registered Democrats. About 455,000 Hispanics are now in the Democratic Party, which only this year surpassed Republicans, who count 425,000 in their ranks. Compared to the last presidential election, the numbers are even more dramatic for African-Americans. More than 207,000 have joined the Democratic Party since 2004, accounting for 44 percent of the new-voter growth."
The Los Angeles Times picks up on an obsession of a voting group that we at First Read have been talking about: exurban voters who have big houses, in areas 30-50 miles away from work, who voted Bush in 2004 and are now hurting financially -- big time. "The boom that turned swamps and pastures into a suburban mecca has stopped dead. Now the talk is about plummeting home values, rising food costs, and gas prices that make the once-painless half-hour commute to Tampa a financial strain. It's enough to give some here the sense that maybe, this time around, the Republicans do not deserve their votes."
The Washington Post examines the other end of the generational gap with Obama: how voters over 65+ are not yet on the bandwagon. "Even as younger voters are showing signs of breaking with years of lackluster turnout to support him, Obama is facing singular resistance from voters over 65. That age group turns out at the highest rate on Election Day and is disproportionately represented in the swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania; Bill Clinton and Al Gore both relied on it in winning the Democrats' only popular-vote majorities of the past two decades.”
“With polls showing Obama dominating among those under 40 and running even among middle-aged voters, Republican John McCain's lead among those 65 and older is the main reason he remains close overall. His margin is largest among older white voters without a college education, accounting for much of Obama's problem with the white working class."
FLORIDA: The Wall Street Journal looks at Obama's attempts to put this sometimes swing state into the toss-up zone. McCain hasn't spent a dime on TV advertising in the state (though his national Olympic buy is being seen in FL now). "By this time in 2004, President Bush's re-election campaign had spent $13.5 million on television in Florida. The president went on to win the state in November. Sen. Obama's ads have touched every media market in Florida, which is the most expensive for advertising among the closely fought states."
By the way, the Journal has some up-to-date TV ad info: The top five states for Obama in terms of spending: FL, PA, VA, OH, and MI; for McCain, it’s PA, OH, MI, VA, and MO. Obama has outspent McCain in FL and VA. McCain has outspent Obama in PA, OH and MI. This pretty much sums up their strategies.
OHIO: Look for a ton of union mailers pouring into Ohio to slam John McCain's domestic policies.
VIRGINIA: A Republican consultant in Virginia tells the Post's Trail blog that, without huge voter registration gains in the Old Dominion, Obama will max out his support in liberal bastions like Fairfax County. "Since presidential elections already garner relatively high turnout rates among registered voters -- close to 80 percent in Northern Virginia, compared to about 45 percent in gubernatorial or Senate elections -- there are only so many more supporters for an aggressive campaign to turn out," says consultant Kenny Klinge. But what worries the GOP insider -- Obama's team's aggressive new registration drive might be working.
