The Russia-Georgia crisis
Posted: Tuesday, August 12, 2008 9:22 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
Security
Russia announced early today that it has halted military operations in Georgia, but it didn’t say whether it would withdraw its troops.
Want to know why neither McCain nor Obama knows what to say beyond their statements on Georgia? The New York Times: "Even as President Bush denounced the Russian actions in the strongest terms to date, the United States and its European allies faced tough choices over how to push back. They seemed uncertain how to adjust to a new geopolitical game that threatened to undermine two decades of democratic gains in countries that were once part of the Soviet sphere."
More: "Administration officials said military options were almost certainly off the table, but the United States did airlift Georgian troops stationed in Iraq back home, answering a plea from the Georgian government and prompting a sharp response from Russia. Washington could also press to ostracize Moscow on the international stage, perhaps by kicking it out of the Group of 8 industrialized nations. Yet there was no immediate indication that Western powers could exercise much leverage over Russia if it chose to ignore their warnings."
The Los Angeles Times gets at the challenges for McCain and Obama. "For McCain and Obama, the war in Georgia has forced a pivot in a campaign where the foreign policy debate has focused primarily on the Middle East and terrorism. The issue poses challenges for both as they balance the need to condemn Russia's actions while addressing the reality that the next administration will need Moscow's assistance in confronting potential nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea.”
For McCain: “McCain had sought to highlight his support for U.S.-Russia cooperation on nuclear security issues, delivering a major address in May in which he declared that ‘Russia and the United States are no longer mortal enemies.’ McCain used that address as a public break from Bush's unpopular foreign policy, embracing a new treaty with Russia and other efforts to reduce the number of nuclear weapons. But in recent days McCain has signaled that he intends to focus more on hard-line criticism of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin and his government.”
For Obama: “Obama too faces challenges as he tries to stake out a more conciliatory foreign policy that includes his willingness to negotiate with enemies. His softer language toward Moscow leaves him open to criticism at a time when the U.S. is clearly aligned with Georgia, an emerging democracy. But Obama aides say this, in fact, can be an advantage."
The Boston Globe has more: “McCain, who has met the Republic of Georgia's president and whose chief foreign policy adviser has lobbied for the country, responded to the news Friday with visceral anger, condemning Russian forces' crossing into Georgia and warning of 'grave' repercussions in long-term relations between Moscow and Washington…. Obama, who has never been to Georgia, initially seemed reticent to single out Russia for criticism, issuing a general call on Friday for ending 'the outbreak of violence.' The next day, as the scope of Russia's military action became clearer, the Democrat toughened his rhetoric and denounced Russia's 'aggressive action' while calling for more diplomacy.
Is McCain's neo-con influence showing itself in his tough rhetoric on Russia? Another New York Times piece: "His hard line has been derided as provocative, and possibly dangerous, by some so-called realist foreign policy experts, who warn that isolating Russia would do little to encourage it to change. But others, including neoconservatives who deem promoting democracy a paramount goal, see Mr. McCain’s position as principled, and prescient. Now, with Russia moving forcefully into Georgia as Mr. McCain seeks the presidency, his views are being scrutinized as never before through the prism of Russia’s invasion."
