First thoughts: The key(note) master
Posted: Wednesday, August 13, 2008 9:23 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** I am the key(note) master: The Obama campaign has announced that former Virginia Gov. -- and current Senate candidate -- Mark Warner will deliver the keynote address on the Tuesday of the Democratic convention. This will continue the tradition of one-time (or once-thought-to-be) presidential candidates (Bradley, Obama) getting their first audition chances as a keynoter. Also, is Obama paying it forward here by picking someone who is a candidate for Senate on his way to a blowout victory? And by the way, doesn't this bode ill for Tim Kaine’s veep chances? It’s hard to imagine there would be Virginians on two straight nights dominating prime time. Just asking: Did the unveiling of the "security" theme for the Wednesday VP night also send a signal that Kaine, Sebelius, and perhaps Bayh were falling on the list? That reminds us: We haven’t heard much from Biden lately. Has he passed the "can you keep it quiet for a few weeks" test?
*** Talk about an odd couple: How shocking is it that Ralph Reed -- the former GOP boy wonder who was Jack Abramoff’s business partner (“I need to start humping in corporate accounts,” Reed once emailed Abramoff) -- is helping to raise money for McCain for a fundraiser next week in Atlanta? Consider that: 1) McCain used his perch on the Senate Indian Affairs Committee to hit Abramoff and Reed; 2) McCain has railed against Abramoff on the campaign trail (“I led in the Abramoff hearings in the -- in the obscure Indian Affairs Committee, for which people are still testifying and going to jail,” he said at a GOP debate in 2007); and 3) some McCain loyalists have blamed Reed for launching the now-infamous whisper campaign against McCain in the 2000 South Carolina primary. McCain made it part of his life’s mission to hammer Abramoff and Reed, and now he’s getting help from the Christian Coalition boy wonder? It's amazing marriage of convenience -- one that some in McCain world may believe is a step too far. In fact, what are the odds that Reed actually shows up to this McCain event?
*** Pulling a Zell: It was two years ago this month that Joe Lieberman lost his Dem primary, and now he's on McCain's short list for VP. By the way, is Lieberman trying to force Democrats to expel him from their caucus if they pick up Senate seats in November? Yesterday, campaigning for McCain in Pennsylvania, the Connecticut senator suggested that Obama doesn’t put his country first. "In my opinion, the choice could not be more clear: between one candidate, John McCain, who's had experience, been tested in war and tried in peace, another candidate who has not,'' Lieberman said. "Between one candidate, John McCain, who has always put the country first, worked across party lines to get things done, and one candidate who has not." Lieberman, who will campaign again with McCain today, has definitely upped his rhetoric, which is why his name continues to stay on the short list. And Lieberman himself doesn't seem to do a lot to discourage the talk. In fact, longtime Lieberman watchers will probably wonder why the one-time Dem VP nominee wasn't this good of an attack dog when he was Al Gore's running mate. Obama may have some Republicans in his camp, but they aren't doing attack-dog politics like Lieberman's doing for McCain.
*** If it was Tuesday… : …somebody was voting somewhere. Primaries took place yesterday in two battleground states -- Colorado and Nevada -- as well as in Connecticut. The big upset was in the CO-2 Dem primary, in which a self-funder defeated state Senate president Joan Fitz-Gerald (a disappointing defeat for an Emily’s List candidate) in the race to succeed Mark Udall. Yet beyond that surprise, yesterday was really about showcasing some candidates who will be in tough House races in Nevada (two of the three are being targeted) and in Colorado, where at least one will get lots of national attention in addition to the senate race between Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer.
*** Downballot spotlight: NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann looks at the Shaheen-Sununu rematch in New Hampshire. In 2002, an unexpected four-point Senate victory in New Hampshire seemed like a landslide for John Sununu (R), whom many predicted would watch Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) squeak by him at the 11th hour. Six years later, pundits are cautiously wondering how the political winds will blow in the Granite State rematch and one of the tightest races of the cycle. Down by as many as 16 points a year ago, when he was weighed down by the bitter unpopularity of the Iraq war, Sununu appears to be pulling even with Shaheen as the war's importance in voter surveys drops from the top concern in favor of gas prices and the economy. The University of New Hampshire's latest poll shows Sununu at 42% to Shaheen's 46% -- grim numbers for an incumbent, but still a dramatic improvement for the Republican since last year's slump.
*** “Tight until the end”: Both candidates are both hardened veterans and cautious campaigners who have run strong ground games in the state before. Shaheen will likely benefit from the state's changing electorate, which has seen a substantial drop in registered Republicans since the 2002 contest. But Sununu, who revels in last-minute ad pushes, has an as-yet untouched $5 million war chest. And McCain's appeal to New Hampshire's moderate Republicans could offer long coattails to his Republican Senate colleague. "If it had been any other Republican [presidential] candidate other than McCain, Sununu might have had no chance of winning this race," says pollster Andy Smith of the UNH Survey Center. But assuming that McCain draws out Republicans in big numbers, Smith adds that "it looks like this race will be tight until the very end."
*** On the trail: McCain campaigns in Michigan, hitting a fundraiser in West Bloomfield; touring Beaver Aerospace & Defense in Livonia; and holding a media avail and raising money in Birmingham. Obama remains on his vacation in Hawaii, but his campaign says it will announce today a new TV ad -- focused on the economy -- that will begin to air Thursday in battleground states.
Countdown to Dem convention: 12 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 83 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 160 days
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