First thoughts: Abortion politics
Posted: Thursday, August 14, 2008 9:20 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Abortion Politics: Who would have guessed that the Democratic Party in 2008 would write a platform that was somewhat open to pro-lifers? The platform says the Democratic Party backs Roe v. Wade, but it also notes that the party "strongly" supports a woman's decision to carry a pregnancy to term. And this comes after the Dems announced that Bob Casey Jr. will speak on the Tuesday night of the convention; his father famously was denied a speaking slot at the ’92 Dem convention because of his pro-life views. So here's the $64,000 question: Are the Dems more open to pro-lifers than the GOP is to pro-choicers? The answer is yes if you read the platforms. But if you look at the presidential running mates, you might side with the GOP -- especially after McCain told the Weekly Standard that he would be open to selecting the pro-choice Tom Ridge as his running mate. (Let’s not forgot that Joe Lieberman is pro-choice as well). Planned Parenthood yesterday applauded the Dem platform on abortion and Casey’s speaking role, but what makes us think that National Right to Life and the Family Research Council won’t take too kindly as Ridge as the GOP running mate?
*** Enough time to complain? However, has anyone noticed the biggest upside to both Obama and McCain waiting so long to name their 'mates? It means less time for the media and activists to second-guess their choices. By the time any handwringing over the running mate hit critical mass, the story will be the conventions, the start of the fall campaign, or the debates -- but not the VP’s background. Of course, if interest groups cry loud enough, that could be enough to break through the clutter.
*** Social Security politics: Abortion isn’t the only issue on our radar screen… Today happens to be Social Security’s 73rd birthday, and both political parties are using the occasion to whack the other side, as well as discuss an issue that (so far) hasn’t received that much attention in this presidential race. The DNC has unveiled a new Web video featuring Franklin Roosevelt’s grandson that hits McCain for supporting past efforts to privatize Social Security and for calling the system “a disgrace” while on the stump. The video ends, “Keep your hands off our Social Security.” The RNC, meanwhile, issued a press release yesterday highlighting some of Obama’s shifting views on increasing payroll taxes. But let’s face it: Social Security has been a winning issue for Democrats in past elections, and Bush’s failed effort in 2005 to partially privatize it -- which McCain supported -- marked the beginning of the White House’s and the GOP's current political woes.
*** Olympic ad watch: As good NBC-Universal employees, we continue to watch the Olympics (and lose sleep in the process, given those primetime 11:00 pm to midnight ET events). And while watching, we noticed that McCain seems to have changed his Olympic ad traffic -- replacing the “celebrity” hit on Obama with the more positive “Washington is broken” ad. While “Washington is broken” is all about McCain, it’s still somewhat dark. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign says it will unveil a new Olympics TV ad today that “highlights Obama’s “plan to put the middle class first.”
*** Downballot spotlight: It's a good year to be a Democratic Senate candidate with the last name "Udall," NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann notes. In New Mexico, just south of the state where Rep. Mark Udall hopes to win back the seat vacated by retiring Colorado GOP Sen. Wayne Allard, cousin Tom Udall is winning by double digits in the contest to replace retiring Republican Sen. Pete Domenici. Udall's GOP opponent, Rep. Steve Pearce, survived a bruising primary against Heather Wilson (whom Domenici endorsed), while Udall cruised unopposed to the Democratic nomination. Pearce -- a conservative whose reputation for sticking to his guns helped him squeak by Wilson -- now may skew too far to the right in bluish New Mexico. "Pearce doesn't have a clear path to victory here," says New Mexico political analyst Heath Haussamen. "A lot of Republicans have already given up on this seat." Udall's hefty financial and polling advantage will be tough to overcome, but Pearce could gain some ground by following the Republican roadmap of slamming Dems on energy; he is already up with ads accusing Udall of blocking new nuclear power and oil drilling. But a weak showing for the downballot Republican could cause some consternation among national Republicans, who hope that turnout in Pearce's conservative home district could boost McCain's chances in this battleground state.
*** On the trail: McCain is in Colorado, where he raises money in Edwards, participates in an Aspen Institute conversation with Walter Isaacson in Aspen, and later fundraises in Aspen. Obama spends his last full day on vacation in Hawaii.
Countdown to Dem convention: 11 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 18 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 82 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 159 days
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