First thoughts: Losing my religion?
Posted: Friday, August 15, 2008 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Losing my religion? On Saturday night, McCain and Obama appear at their first forum together when they speak at Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church in California. And it’s another excellent peg to look at the religious vote in this presidential campaign. According to the polls, McCain is faring well among evangelicals. In last month’s NBC/WSJ survey, he had a 64%-24% lead over Obama with this group, and a recent Barna Group poll had him up 61%-17%. But when it comes to religion, McCain isn’t George W. Bush, and he has two challenges. One, do these evangelicals come out in same numbers and with the intensity that they did in 2004 (and if not, how does he make up the difference)? And two, is Obama able to peel off enough of them (especially those under 40) to make the difference in key states? This is a HUGE opportunity for Obama. Time and again, he has been more open to talking about his relationship with God, while McCain has been more reticent on the topic. But, to put on our NBC-Universal hats again, who's going to be watching? Saturday is the night Michael Phelps will be potentially swimming for his eighth, record-breaking gold medal. Just sayin'… Still, a big performance by Obama in front of an evangelical crowd could resonate longer than McCain doing well.
*** Popping the trial balloon: That thud you just heard was the Ridge/Lieberman VP trial balloon that social conservative activists quickly popped. They couldn't find reporters fast enough to denounce the prospect of McCain adding a pro-choice pol to his ticket. “It absolutely floored me,” Phil Burress, head of the Ohio-based Citizens for Community Values, told the Politico’s Jonathan Martin. “It would doom him in Ohio.” Home School Legal Defense Association President Mike Farris said to the Washington Times: “If Tom Ridge is on the ticket, I will not be voting Republican.” Then again, if this was a trial balloon, wasn’t this the response McCain is looking for?
*** Obama’s stealth ad campaign: Over the past week, we've gotten our hands on a number of negative TV ads Obama's been running against McCain in key states like Ohio and Michigan. This is in addition to the tough spot, uncovered by Politico [*** UPDATE *** Actually the spot was uncovered by the Washington Times' Christina Bellantoni, who reported on it yesterday and was linked to by Politico] , that Obama's airing in Indiana. Clearly, the Obama campaign isn't interested in telling the media about every single McCain attack ad they’re running. Perhaps this is because Obama's brand can't afford to be tarnished too much if he's seen as constantly running negative TV ads. So the campaign simply puts them on the air in key markets, doesn't tell the press about them, and layers those ads with positive ones being run nationally during the Olympics. Also, by not releasing to the media, it forces the McCain camp to wait a day or two before they see the ad. McCain's camp is much more comfortable unveiling their negative ads, perhaps because they want the free press that comes with them. But make no mistake, Obama’s running plenty of negative TV ads, particularly in the industrial Midwestern states. In fact, one of Obama's biggest candidate strengths -- which doesn't get the attention it deserves -- is that he plays political hardball as well as his opponents; he just sometimes does it under the radar.
*** Georgia on McCain's mind: McCain has dominated the week on the Georgia-Russia issue, but the Washington Post today wonders if he's been too aggressive here. In one of our classic double-standard alerts, ask yourself how outraged the RNC and McCain's camp would be if Obama were "dispatching" senators to the region…
*** Release the numbers! We just received an email that McCain campaign manager Rick Davis will hold a conference call at 9:30 am ET to discuss his campaign’s fundraising. We assume we'll see the campaign’s July numbers, which don’t have to be filed with the FEC until August 20. *** UPDATE *** The McCain camp says it raised $27 million in July, per the AP. We'll have more on this later today...
*** Downballot spotlight: Per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, the question isn’t whether Mark Warner will win his upcoming Senate race in Virginia -- the question is by how much. Indeed, polls show him skating towards a 20-point win in a state that’s at the top of Obama’s battleground list, and he’s just been recruited to deliver this year's keynote convention speech -- the same primetime platform that launched Obama into a glittering national spotlight. But how much can the massively popular king of the Old Dominion (he left office with an 80% approval rating) transfer his NASCAR appeal to Obama in the red-leaning counties where the Democratic nominee must outperform predecessors dating back to 1964? “It would be a big feather in [Warner's] cap if Obama carried Virginia,” says UVA political analyst Larry Sabato, who notes that Warner may end up being owed more credit if the state goes blue than current governor and veep potential Tim Kaine. Sabato acknowledges that Warner could risk losing a few points of support if he pushes hard in rural areas for Obama. “But,” he adds, “he can certainly afford it.” If Warner touts his support for Obama in the state’s rural Southwest, Sabato says, “you’re talking about a couple of points. But this is very, very close. Potentially, that’s the election.”
*** On the trail: McCain remains in Colorado, where he holds campaign meetings and then a "campaign filming day. Obama ends his vacation in Hawaii and returns to the US mainland, and his campaign unveils the 10 winners of the “Backstage with Barack” contest for the Dem convention. Yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger profiled one of these winners: Eric Melder.
Countdown to Dem convention: 10 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 17 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 81 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 158 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
