First thoughts: Veep madness
Posted: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 9:19 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Veep madness: As we warned yesterday, it's silly rumor week when it comes to the VP speculation. From rumors about Obama naming his 'mate in hours to McCain picking his location to unveil his choice, both campaigns spent last night shooting down reports about who, when, and where. However, the Obama camp was more emphatic about shooting down the New York Times report (which said that an announcement could come as soon as tomorrow) than the McCain camp was about the Politico story (which noted that the Arizona senator’s pick will come on August 29, the Friday after the Dem convention).
VIDEO: With less than a week to go until the Democratic Convention, Barack Obama is expected to announce his running mate in the next few days. NBC’s Chuck Todd discusses possible choices.
By the way, there are three reasons why an August 29 VP announcement for McCain could be a problem: 1) it will come as nearly every political reporter -- save those actually following McCain -- is headed on a flight from Denver to the Twin Cities; 2) it occurs at the start of the Labor Day weekend, when many Americans are probably headed to the nearest beach or lake; and 3) it’s the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Still, the upsides of picking that day: 1) it immediately forces the national press corps to turn its attention away from Obama and to McCain; 2) it steps on McCain's 72nd birthday a tad; and 3) it creates a little buzz going into the weekend of what could be one of those bad press weeks for the Republican Party, as many media outlets focus on all the Republicans NOT showing up to the convention and the Bush-Cheney opening night potential dud.
*** Things that make you go, hmmmm: Here’s a VP nugget courtesy of Politico's Mike Allen, who notes National Review’s Rich Lowry speculating that McCain's emphatic pro-life statements to Rick Warren on Saturday were about shoring up the base and preparing them for the Tom Ridge pick. It’s not a bad theory. The growing Republican CW is twofold. One, Pawlenty appears to be the safest pick, given that one no one is vetoing him. And two, McCain is more likely than Obama to upend the CW with his decision. Here’s another VP nugget: We now know that Obama had one of his last face-to-face meetings with Biden before he left for Hawaii. And don’t miss this: The AP reports that Bob Woodward’s next book on the Bush Administration is scheduled to come out right after the GOP convention. That timing could step on McCain's post-convo bounce. McCain is trying to step on Obama, and Woodward may be stepping on McCain.
*** The back-and-forth: Many folks following Obama -- and not wanting to simply ask too much about the VP pick -- noticed he had a feistier tone in his stump yesterday. Of course, many used the Sunday New York Times piece about Democrats complaining about Obama's failure to define "hope" as an impetus for this "get tougher" mindset. As for McCain, there really is a difference when the issue focus shifts away from the domestic. Can you just see the bounce in McCain's step now that the issue terrain is all international? There really is a difference in candidate McCain when he is forced to stump on domestic issues and candidate McCain when he's in his international comfort zone. Yesterday's speech to the VFW was a good example.
*** The Clinton restoration project: Just as another article wonders why Obama isn’t picking Hillary Clinton as his running mate comes the news that Bill Clinton praised McCain on energy policy and climate change. Was Bill Clinton playing mind games or simply stating the obvious? Conspiracy theorists will have a field day with this…
*** There Will Be Oil: Today, McCain visits an oil rig platform in New Orleans, where he will promote his energy policies. (Certainly saying “Drill here and drill now” will make a bit more sense today than he when he said it a motorcycle rally in South Dakota.) This comes after McCain had to scrap an earlier oil rig stop in the Big Easy last month. The campaign said the reason for the cancellation was Hurricane Dolly. But as the Washington Post also noted at the time: “It may not have helped things that a 600-foot tanker loaded with oil and a barge collided Wednesday in the Mississippi River in New Orleans, leaving a 12-mile long oil slick in the river and closing a 29-mile stretch of the river. Television stations reported the stench of diesel fuel wafting across the French Quarter.”
*** Obama’s turn before the VFW: Before McCain’s oil rig visit, Obama addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Orlando, FL -- a day after McCain told the group about Obama’s “ambition to be president” and declared that “both candidates in this election pledge to end this war and bring our troops home. The great difference is that I intend to win it first.” Per the campaign, Obama “will discuss his veterans policies and his commitment to continuing support for America’s service men and women after their deployments have ended.” (Of course, whether Floridians will notice Obama in the state due to preparations for Fay is another story.) After that, he embarks on a two-and-a-half day economic bus tour through North Carolina and then Virginia.
*** Downballot spotlight: NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann looks at the Senate race in North Carolina. When state Sen. Kay Hagan was battling through primary season against fellow Democrat Jim Neal, some observers joked that the race was generating a lot of hot air just to select a doormat for incumbent GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole to step on in November. But since buckling in for the general election, Hagan has shown that she's not taking this one lying down. Her campaign went up with ads last week, and the DSCC is already pumping cash into TV buys attacking Dole as a status-quo Bush Republican. (The most recent DSCC ad, in which two grizzled men in rocking chairs debate whether Dole is "92" or "93" -- a reference, respectively, to her voting record with Bush and to her effectiveness ranking in the Senate -- caused a stir for its perceived potshot at the age of the 72-year-old Dole.)
*** A strong Dem ticket? Dole remains a force to be reckoned with in the Tar Heel State, Dann adds. Polls show her up by a small (but significant) margin, and her name recognition is sky-high in comparison to the relatively unknown Hagan, who was not the first pick of Democrats who tried in vain to recruit a more popular candidates like outgoing Gov. Mike Easley. But there's definitely a sense of vulnerability in Dole's poll numbers. Hagan hopes to benefit from skyrocketing voter registration numbers in the hard-fought presidential primary state. And it doesn't hurt that she rounds out a Democratic ticket that includes Obama (who’s a magnet for young and minority voters) and Bev Perdue (a strong female candidate for North Carolina governor). Keep an eye on this race for a reality check on how long Obama's coattails may be, and the degree to which this year's dismal approval ratings for Congress have turned "incumbent" into a dirty word. Also, talk about a glass ceiling test -- the top three candidates on the North Carolina Dem ballot are a black man and two white women.
*** On the trail: McCain tours an oil rig in New Orleans, LA and then holds meetings in the Big Easy. Obama addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Orlando, FL, speaks via satellite to United Food and Commercial Workers Conference in Canada, and then heads to Raleigh, NC for a town hall.
Countdown to Dem convention: 6 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 77 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 154 days
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