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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Battleground: Great (Lakes) expectations

Posted: Thursday, August 21, 2008 9:10 AM by Mark Murray

The AP curtain-raises what it dubs the "Great Lakes" region. "The GOP presidential candidate is mounting strong challenges to Democratic rival Barack Obama in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and eyeing Minnesota -- four states that have thwarted Republicans in at least four straight elections. The Arizona senator is also fighting to hang on to Ohio, a bellwether that President Bush won twice." Meanwhile, Obama is fighting to turn Indiana.

PENNSYLVANIA
: The New York Times interviews voters in rural Pennsylvania, who have doubts about Obama and also McCain. “From the desolation of Aliquippa — where the Jones & Laughlin steel mill loomed at the foot of the main boulevard — to the fading beauty of Beaver Falls to the neatly tended homes of retired steel workers in Hopewell, one hears much hesitating talk about Mr. Obama, some simply quizzical or skeptically political, and some not-so-subtly racial.”

Also: “This said, Mr. McCain quickens few pulses. Vietnam, where he served in the military and was held captive for more than five years, seems distant. And not all laugh at his commercials poking fun at Mr. Obama’s ‘celebrity’ status.”

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FR, this needs to be on the front page!  McCain agreed that we need a draft to catch Bin Laden!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/20/mccain-on-bringing-back-d_n_120178.html
Pennsylvania ... Thank you, Hillary, for embedding these negative feelings!
he New York Times interviews voters in rural Pennsylvania, who have doubts about Obama and also McCain.
********************************************************

Shooooot.  I live in the 'T' and nobody ever calls me for an interview.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
“This said, Mr. McCain quickens few pulses..."

Including his own.
Michigan being in play at this stage of the game means things are not going well for Obama.
Michigan is a no brainier. But The DNC (Howard "Moron" Dean) and the local Democratic party (Debbie "Dingbat" Dingle, Jennifer "Useless" Granholm, Debbie "Whiner" Stabinow) have poisoned the water. not to mention the Kilpatrick scandal. Way to go.....
The DNC should never have let the whole Michigan/Florida issue arise. serves them right.
I was in that part of PA this past weekendSitting amidst the slag heaps left by the departed mining companies in ugly little towns slinging to denuded mountainsides, it's hard to be enthusiastic about much of anything. They'll vote for McCain if they bother to vote, but many won't bother, D.C. seems too far away and not just in miles. So why bother?
Elitist McCain unable to name number of houses.
Democrats Plan Major Offensive on McCain Home Number Ignorance
http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/21/democrats-plan-major-offensive-on-mccain-home-number-ignorance/

Here's a (partial) list of McCain's houses/condos:

1. A beachfront condo in Coronado, California.
2. Another beachfront condo in Coronado, California.
3. A beachfront condo in La Jolla, California.
4. A two-unit condominium complex in Phoenix, Arizona.
5. A ranch house located outside of Sedona, Arizona.
6. Another ranch house located outside of Sedona, Arizona.
7. And another ranch house located outside of Sedona, Arizona.
8. A high-rise condo in Arlington, Virginia.
9. A loft they bought for their daughter, Meghan in Phoenix, Arizona.

The value of their houses is an estimated $13,123,269.
A map is available here:

"McCain’s Mansions: the Real Elitist" VIDEO Hotlist
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/18/145055/052/82/558245

The McCain Residences: A Google Earth Tour
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Glia_Vrbc8

Your 'PA' analysis is not credible because you have not provided polling that supports your position. Obama was up 7 points in my state, (last I looked).

Pa. is for Obama. Pa. is a blue collar state. The buzz everywhere is that Pennsylvanians want change. You are wrong about Pa.
Let's talk about McCain's stance on reinstating the draft per his Town Hall yesterday in New Mexico.
I want to know the McCain camp response.
Play the POW card...Johnny Boy..
He's still stuck in Vietnam ...
We've moved on...so must our new President..
Reflect on the past, find the good that was there to deal with it, but don't be doomed to repeat them..
America needs a new direction and determination, not the mistakes of the past...

Obama'08

 When Obama picks Biden as his VP, those areas of Pennsylvania and the others that border the Rust Belt will learn the true differences between the two candidates. Biden can bring that message home. No one is really paying attention yet but once the Obama team breaks from its convention and gets the ground game moving, the game will be "ON". That's the campaign I'm waiting to see.
John Sydney McCain III is the poster child for the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld way of doing things and we as a nation cannot afford to continue down that path. Its time to bring some discipline, decorum and intelligence back to the White House.
"False Hero" McCain is too boring to quicken anyone's pulse except for the totally braindead.  Yeah VietNam is too distant for so many to remember that "Incompetent Warrior" McCain was too unlucky and incompetent as a warrior to ever be a real hero.  His clueless assertions about we should have stayed in 'Nam show clearly that he learned all the wrong lessons because he was too out of touch in his Hanoi Hilton cell.  Being a disabled Vietnam era vet I know just how out of touch with reality this false hero is.

His surge in Iraq has been a failure and all this staying in Iraq for 100 years is meant to do is keep over 100,000 guns aimed at the Iraqi governmen's head to ensure they remain our servile puppet.  They are trying to keep the truth from getting out that they are the ones who have handed Iraq over to the puppetmasters in Tehran no matter how many American lives it costs.

Only Barack Obama can bring a proper resolution to the idiotic occupation of a sovereign nation in Iraq!

Go Obama 08/12!
There's nothing to laugh about from a guy who can't even count the number of homes he has, cheated and dumped his recovering, disfigured wife for money and fame, and now wants to kill even more of our sons and daughters by starting a draft to start more wars and continue the ones his mentor started.
Much fuss was made about WV and KY during the primary season and how the majority of the people in these states rejected Sen. Obama. Race has been, is, and will always be a sore spot that is a symptom of that old national birth defect called slavery.

During the primaries I watched with raised eyebrow how Chris Matthews tried to frame the good folk of the rural parts of PA as not racially prejudiced, but rather they were resistent to change.

Sen. Obama was pinned to the wall trying not to characterize some of the people of PA as being prejudiced. But the "bitter comments" were purposely misconstrued and hurt Sen. Obama in the end. If it wasn't so sad, it would be laughable.

STILL HAVE FAITH IN OBAMA/BIDEN 08/12
Obama's going to keep these states because quite frankly, they're suffering. This is going to lend itself very heavily to a Democratic candidate. They are going to want someone to come in and help them. Very rarely are Republicans seem as the party of compassion.

http://www.rodneyhopper.com
McCain should come out and say like he did yesterday, he wants the draft back. The press is keeping their mouth shut on this, you can see the bias out there.
In Oklahoma when I speak to Obama nay-sayers 90% are completely un-subtle about their opposition reasons--pure racism.  It's sad and shameful.  I seldom speak to anyone that really likes McBlinky but they would in fact vote for Donald Duck rather than the Illinois senator because Donald is afterall white.  It may be 2008 chronologically but electoral America...at least Oklahoma is somewhere around 1910.
What constitutes the "Great Lakes Region"??

Are they grasping at straws here or what?

Michigan will be blue this Nov. whether or not Mitt (I-don't-really-live-here-but-my-daddy-was-governor) Romney is VP.
I personally do not care how many houses the McCains own, because I do not envy others.  I DO care about sweetheart deals, (Rezco), because it speaks to an underlying dishonesty.  I do not care how many lobbyists work in either campaign.  I DO care about associations (Ayers), because unrepentant terrorists have no place in my life, and they certainly have no place in the life of anyone who aspires to be president.  I don't care how much the 'rich' pay in taxes.  I DO care how much I pay in taxes, and where those taxes are going.  I don't care if someone is Christian, Jewish, Muslim, or nothing at all.  I DO care if someone absorbs, (and subjects his/her children to), hate speech week after week, and expects me to believe that he/she did not hear a word that was said.  I respect someone who tells me that he/she has a position I disagree with.  I despise those who will not take a position, because they will not be pinned down on an issue that might cost them my vote.  I respect those who vote with reason and thought.  I am saddened and sickened by those who vote based on their feelings.
62 white female for Obama:

I don't think that Hillary embedded any of those feelings here in PA, I think that she just made people more comfortable expressing them.  There are and have always been racial tensions here.  

What we need now is for Hillary to get her rear-end out here to tell my narrow-minded neighbors how similiar Obama's plans are to hers and to remind them that our problems are so much greater than steel-mill prejudices!
Your 'PA' analysis is not credible because you have not provided polling that supports your position. Obama was up 7 points in my state, (last I looked).

Pa. is for Obama. Pa. is a blue collar state. The buzz everywhere is that Pennsylvanians want change. You are wrong about Pa.

Donna

*****************************************

Glad to hear this! I am getting the sneaking suspicion that we are not getting accurate info from the pundits and polls. Are they trying to turn voters support?? I wonder.........
donna,
are the folks in PA really going to let go of their guns and religion long enough to go out and vote for Obama??
Don't think so...
PA is going for Mcain and so is VA.  If Obama really cared about blue collar workers he would refrain from making disparaging remarks about them while trying to court their vote.
While middle-class Americans are trying to hold on to their jobs and homes, McCain tells Politico during an interview that he isn't even sure how many homes he owns. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12685.html

McCain also states that he will not agree to serving just one term, so if he wins in November and lives long enough, America could be stuck with Lame Brain McCain for 8 YEARS!  I can only imagine what our economy will look like.  How many wars will the U.S. be fighting in with McCain's "bomb, bomb, bomb agressive mentality."
…If I may for a moment get back to the forum the other night…

It spoke volumes as to what type of Presidents the two candidates would be. And it is rather scary, seeing John McCain's bullheadedness. Without doubt he knew a few questions beforehand. Particularly the questions pertaining to unqualified teachers. But what makes it worse is the fact that he couldn't even pretend he didn't... He answered the questions before the pastor even asked them... WOW!!! But that's not even the scariest part. What scares me the most is his bullheadedness in rushing to judgment... Without fully hearing the questions he gave solid, inflexible answers. Answers without consideration or without any thought whatsoever... Is it just me, or is that similar to going into war without the facts? hell bent on preconceived notions... I understand that certain folks out there might deserve 4 more years of the same, but for the sake of realizing the greatness of our country, we all need to wake up and let common logic come into play...

We've been stagnant for 7 and a half years... We've gone nowhere... Well actually we've gone backwards...

Wisen up folks... For whichever applies to you; put aside your petty differences, or your biases, or your negative up bringing, or your close mindedness, or your stubborness, or your doubts, or your pessimism, or your ignorance, or your fear, and consider which door we're about to enter as a nation... The Rich really need not concern themselves with this, for they're going to be okay regardless, but I HOPE that the true faces of America realize what's before us, and not allow ourselves to be swayed by the ever so apparent emptiness, and word play that the Republicans are attempting to feed us... Stand firm, and don't permit your intelligence to continually be insulted...

Lets do it... For the sake of our tomorrows... And if that's not enough, how about for the sake of our kids...

"...For Tomorrow Will Bring..."
donna,
are the folks in PA really going to let go of their guns and religion long enough to go out and vote for Obama??
Don't think so...
PA is going for Mcain and so is VA.  If Obama really cared about blue collar workers he would refrain from making disparaging remarks about them while trying to court their vote.

A functioning brain (Sent Thursday, August 21, 2008 10:07 AM)

 You may have a functioning brain but lets see if you can use it to read. Realclearpolitics has the poll averages for PA (going for McCain as you say) and Obama is up by an average of 5.8 points, up 7 at Quinnipiac. They show Virginia to be basically a tie, with McCain up by 0.6 points. So, there is no real "surge" for John Sydney McCain III in either of these states. So, will the voters let go of their guns or their religion long enough to go vote for McCain? I don't see where either candidate is running away with either state right now.



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