ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



McCain vs. Obama: It's getting closer...

Posted: Thursday, August 21, 2008 9:19 AM by Mark Murray

The Wall Street Journal writes up the NBC/WSJ poll, which has Obama leading 45%-42%. “Sen. John McCain has all but closed the gap with Sen. Barack Obama, underscoring how international crises -- and some well-placed negative ads -- have boosted the prospects of the Republican presidential candidate.” The poll “also points to a big challenge for Sen. Obama as his party gathers in Denver next week for its convention: rallying Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters to his cause. Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama. One in five is supporting Sen. McCain. The Republican has reached out to Clinton supporters by offering steady praise for the former first lady and hinting that he'd be open to a running mate who supports abortion rights.”

“The poll has some cautionary notes for Sen. McCain as well. It shows that his supporters are much less enthusiastic than Sen. Obama's, and finds widespread concern among voters about his age.”

Here’s MSNBC.com’s write-up.

The latest New York Times/CBS poll also has the race at 45%-42%. “The poll suggested that victory remains very much within the grasp of both men as the marathon presidential race enters its most decisive period… Still, the poll showed troubling signs for Mr. McCain, who continues to suffer from a wide gap in enthusiasm. Mr. Obama’s supporters were twice as likely to describe themselves as enthusiastic as Mr. McCain’s were. Only 24 percent of Mr. McCain’s supporters called themselves enthusiastic; 28 percent said that they were supporting him only because he was the Republican Party’s probable nominee, or because they disliked Mr. Obama.”

More: “There were indications that the more negative tone Mr. McCain adopted this summer could prove risky. Efforts by Republicans and Mr. McCain’s campaign to cast his opponent as elitist or out of touch do not seem to have moved popular opinion much against Mr. Obama, but they appear to have led more voters to view Mr. McCain as a negative campaigner.”

The tightening race is the cover of the New York Post. "McSurge." Subhead: "Poll roll blows away O lead."

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Below link: John McCain's Plot to undo the U.N. -- Exposes and Points out McCain's really bad lack of knowledge regarding foreign affairs -- supposedly his strong point!

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-john-mccain-and-his-secretive-plot-to-kill-the-un-903998.html

Unfoturnately, we have to get the truth from other countries rather than our Republican-owned main stream media -- which is a derelict of duty to the American public.
here were indications that the more negative tone Mr. McCain adopted this summer could prove risky. Efforts by Republicans and Mr. McCain’s campaign to cast his opponent as elitist or out of touch do not seem to have moved popular opinion much against Mr. Obama, but they appear to have led more voters to view Mr. McCain as a negative campaigner.
******************************************************

As Mark Penn will tell you (ugh), negative ads work.  However, as we watch the polling numbers, they are trending away from Obama into the undecided column -- rather than the McCain column.

Hopefully, Obama will be able to get those numbers back before they go decidedly into the McCain column.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
I can hear it all now if Obama loses.  It will be the fault of those HRC supporters who didn't vote for him.  Will anybody ever believe that as more people start becoming interested in this race that, perhaps, some in the American public are just not impressed with BHO?
Getting closer? Sorry, but polls are a lagging indicator. The whoosh Obama heard while he was on vacation was Team McCain, who doesn't take vacations, flying by him in the polls.
More: “There were indications that the more negative tone Mr. McCain adopted this summer could prove risky. Efforts by Republicans and Mr. McCain’s campaign to cast his opponent as elitist or out of touch do not seem to have moved popular opinion much against Mr. Obama, but they appear to have led more voters to view Mr. McCain as a negative campaigner.”

--------------------------------------

How can you call someone elitist or out of touch when you yourself don't know how many homes you and your wife have?

This at a time when many Americans are struggling to keep the one home they have!
Ok it may be getting close but read this again. McCain agrees that we will need to reinstate the DRAFT. Need I say more.
Buyers' remorse....

Clinton/Obama or it will be a bust!
I know this is counterintuitive, but I welcome the tightening of the polls.

I don't want anybody to stay home thinking that Senator Obama has it in the bag.

The truth is, factoring in the margin of error, the race has been basically tied all along.

One state at a time - that's the recipe for success!

Obama '08
This one won't be close. Everyone can go to bed early on election night. Obama will concede, oh, around 10:30 EST or so. And as always, Obama will give a good speech, but as ususal, it will lack any substance.
I'm glad someone is finally addressing the enthusiasm gap. Obama supporters are motivated to go to the polls, McCain supporters tend to be the 'pox on both your houses' variety that stay home.

Let's also notice that even with Obama's vacation, a flap in the Russia, and the negative ads, McCain hasn't been able to take over. Still mired in low 40's.

http://www.rodneyhopper.com
Its getting closer because OBAMA is wasting time with his VP pick.
It better be Biden, Clarke, Hagel, Powell or Hillary.
If he picks Kaine, Bayh or Sebellius the dems are DONE.

HOW BOUT THE TIME TABLE BARACK??? McCain was AGAINST IT.
The WAR, More wars>>
What the hell is Obama waiting for???

This is getting DUMB on his part. We need a fighter as well as a brain Barack.

TIME TO DESTROY MCNASY
See what arrogance/ elitist attitude gets you.
You didnt need Florida or Michigan, you didn’t need the Hillary supporters. Well well well.......
Looks like Berry needs all of that plus some.
Good luck repairing what you tore down.
I would like to suggest that if there is to be a “Bradley Effect” in the Presidential election, it will be much more complex than simply because of Senator Obama’s race. I hope you will consider this article: The Obama Bradley Effect Complexity found at:
http://zachjonesishome.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/the-obama-bradley-effect-complexity/
This is what the MSM has been pushing for for months now. They have gone out of there way to scrutinize Obama while giving McCain a free pass. They needed Obama's numbers to drop and McCain's to rise so that they could get their horse race.

Congratulations MSM, you did it!
the only thing that is getting close right now is nation wide poverty!  John McCain will ensure that the wealthy stay wealthy and the poor gets poorer! Oh, John wants to see more trailer park trash, that is why he supports big companies!
Seriously, who here is planning to vote for McCain, now that he has admitted that he wants to reinstate the DRAFT?!

20 August, Las Crucas, NM Town Hall:
GUEST: If we don't re-enact the draft, I don't think we'll have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of Hell.  

SEN JOHN MCCAIN: Ma'am let me say that I don't disagree with anything you have said, and thank you.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3msRsdt6bWY
McSurge has yet to Surge beyond the low 40s in ALL polls.  Yes, the negative (lie) commercials have pulled Obama down.  But polls are a poor indicator.

The best indicator are the campaign organizations nation wide.  Which canidate has more volunteers on the ground?  More campaign offices?  I think you will find it is Obama.
Of course those voting for McCain are less enthusiastic than those voting for Obama.  We've made the choice that we cannot support a candidate who talks without saying anything, who will tax us to death, has no answers for the fuel crisis, (other than 'hope' for some imaginary alternative fuel source), whose concern for foreign affairs is so great that he is body-surfing and eating sno-cones when there is a crisis in Georgia, whose resume can be printed on a 3x5 index card and whose judgment is questionable, at best.  Obama supporters are not enthusiastic, they are ardent; they remind me of the screaming, fainting fans seen in the film clips of the Beatle concert in Shea stadium in the early 1960s.  It would be interesting to read the results of a poll taken of Obama supporters on his positions on any topic.  If one hundred were polled on his positions on, say, taxes, you would get 100 different answers.  That is why they support him-they each hear what they want to hear. These groupies are incapable of THINKING.
Is it negative to point out the truth about Obama? I think not. Obama thinks he's the smartest guy around, and to his supporters, he probably is. They're not the sharpest knives in the drawer though, so it really doesn't take much to impress them.
Obama goes on his world tour and loses points after talking bad about America.  He goes on vacation in Hawaii and loses even more points. Nancy Pelosi gives congress a five week vacation so she can go on her book tour.  John McCain stays on point talking about the issues.  That's how you win elections my friends, staying on point.
Edison - the only thing that is getting close right now is nation wide poverty!


What's the matter, you have to give up your subscription to HBO? How you going to watch Bill Mahre now?
After watching the Faith Forum the other night, not only am I still an Obama supporter I actively despise John McCain. McCain's negative ads, his pandering to conservatives, his seeing war as the first solution to every problem, all that "evil" crap, the lies he tells regarding the benefits of lifting the ban on off-shore drilling, and on and on, show me he is right in the mold of George Bush and Karl Rove.


Mr. Obama will need to start getting the TRUTH about mccheezy out since the MSMedia will not.

They not negative ads,

I'd call them PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS!!!

Thanks Obama camp !!! Keep informing us!

When people learn about the real hero (NOT) Mctroll, they will have a different view of who they are backing.

The Dems have not been losing because it is an insult contest. The Dems lose because they keep going after Republican voters instead of listening, respecting and including those on the far left... the Greens and Nader supporters.
The real Dem base.
There is now 1 point or less between McCain and Obama yet we have 5% who will not vote for either of them and 6% are undecided. Yet the pundits say OH the soccer Moms are voting this way and those who watched Saddleback are voting that way. Obama needs to adjust his position to please them...
Obama needs to put McCain on the defensive on issues we actually care about like -
Healthcare, solar energy, corporate crime, corporate welfare, corporate bail outs,
Election fraud, the justice system etc.
The Dems are losing again and again because the make poor copies of Republicans yet keep trying to reinvent themselves for votes. It's sad and weak and is destroying their party and our country.
Of course the Rupert Murdoch-owned garbage rag New York Post would trumpet 42% as a "surge"-  this "surge" hasn't really worked, either.

An "enthusiasm gap" for McCain is putting it mildly.  Can't wait for those conventions- McCain may not need any Ambien that week, once the sleeper in St. Paul gets underway- zzzz.
are you better off now than 8 years ago, and do you want high unemployment, continued housing and banking crises and lack of health care.  remember the rethugnutz and mccant brought us the last 8 years.
McShame has the nerve to call Obama elitist, yet he can't even count the number of homes he owns? And he acquired them by cheating on and dumping his first wife for money and fame. And now he wants to cheat on and kill our sons and daughters by reinstating a draft to start more wars and continue the ones his mentor started.
"McSurge" will be buried after the Dem convention, when he has his veep (I'm hoping for Biden) and the bounce from his acceptance speech, whereas Mclame will have..."mission Accomplished" Bush and Darth Cheney.  Oh, boy, now THERE'S a big bounce-bringer for you!
Maybe the people camped out at Obama's 5 offices in the Hampton Roads area didn't get the message about these "polls" you speak of. There were droves of people in line, camped out just for ther mere hopes of getting tickets for his Chesapeake town hall meeting. By the way..This is Thelma Drake/Republican/Military land.
McCain = LIES
John Lewis, Mother Teresa story, Justices he approved, Bear DNA he approved, Iraq War he approved, His POW Lies, his fake support for Troops.

WHY IS THIS NOT GETTING REPORTED??
AND WHY IS CHUCKY T GIVING EXCUSES OR MCSLIME???

I have seen more MSM media people give excuses to McNasty that I can remember. If Obama farts its BREAKING NEWS

This is getting ridiculous
are you better off now than 8 years ago,

thats a fact jack

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Barack Obama is.
MCCAIN-DANGEROUS, OUT OF CONTROL AND OVER THE TOP CANDIDATE

It is not bad enough that thousands of lives were lost in Iraq over a war that should have never been and would not have been except for deception by Bush to the American people who were at their most vulnerable after 911.  Taking advantage of suffering and anguish of the country, he was able to then use anthrax to seal the deal.  They have overwhelming evidence to impeach the President.  He only wanted one war, which we
were “Mission Accomplished”, per the president, then won, now still need to win.  Flip-Flop is not the word, Unreliable, Irresponsible, Deceptive, and Very Arrogant.  There should not be immunity for any of them.  We need Accountability !!!!!!!!!!

Now you got McCain, who is not president, but acts like he is and threatens Russia.  Russia, in turn, was willing to do a cease fire after meeting with France’s President, but changed it’s mind after hearing the threats of Bush and many from McCain, the self proclaimed Maverick.  If one war isn’t enough, you have an idiot Republican candidate McCain, who now wants the draft and wants more war, this time with Russia, first it was with Iran and all of his enemies in his own mind.  His logic is lets destroy them.  You will not have anyone left in America, because most would be fighting wars from an out-of-control and over-the-top hot head.  Lying about the other candidate to win.  No character.  No integrity.  Everyone in the world knows about his military service, those who want to know, and those who could care less, because it does not qualify him to lead anything or anybody.  He does not help the veterans or the soldiers and his voting record proves it.  He does not help anyone but himself.  If Georgia did not grease his palm by making more than $800,000.00 in campaign contributions to his top advisor and over 49 contributions to his campaign, would he care about Georgia.  NO !!!!!!!!!!  He is unstable and untrustworthy.  He will win by any means necessary and will try and destroy anyone in his way.  He is a Dangerous Candidate.  America don’t die for someone who doesn’t care about you.  This is not about Republican or Democrat.  This is about reason and common sense.  The more McCain talks, the more it is apparent that he has neither !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is so sad to say however the reality is if he was 100% white he would be crushing McCain…We should all wake up and come to terms with this reality he will make a great president (change we all need) in this great nation of ours..McCain is not the answer we need we all know that!!!


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/18/cafferty.mccain/index.html


http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,164859_1,00.html
Senator McCain, with no help from Joe what is your position on the economy?

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We're informed voters and
we approve this answer....
The repugnant ones have engineered another international crisis to help their decrepit panderer "Warmonger" McCain steal an election he doesn't deserve to win.  Just what did the Warmonger and his lobbyist flunky Stueneman promise Saakashvili of Georgia over the past few months?  Rather curious that Georgia would take on a much more powerful Russia and not expect to get crushed unless some Warmonger was promising them military aid.  This was also just another ploy to start a crisis to get Poland on board that idiotic and unnecessary missile defense shield system in Russia's front yard.  The Warmonger doews notr speak for me that I'm a Georgian.  They started that foolish dust up in South Ossetia and they deserve the whipping they got from Russia.

Don't be fooled by this engineered crisis by the repugnant ones.  They just want to change the subject from the economy because they screwed that up so badly they know they can't win based upon their track record of economic failures.

Only Barack Obama can bring peace to the world and keep our military out of unnecessary wars!

Go Obama 08/12!
I am an Obama supporter. However, I will accept the will of the American people, for I love democracy.

The enthusiasm numbers, will help Obama come November.
I believe the polls will open up in his favor, eventually. It is interesting that McCain's enthusiastic supporters mirror that of Bush's approval rating.
Obama supporters say he doesn't need this, or that, or those people or that state to win...by the time you are all done alienating the country, the only one voting for Obama will be himself!

This poli sci degree holder/lawyer, knows what he's saying, when I say, without Hillary as his VP, Obama will seal his fate...losing it big time in Nov.!
Southern France...Northern Italy....and I have a friend near Toronto, Canada who promised me she would vouch for my citizenship if McCain gets in and we have another 4-8 years of NeoCon Government....

The loss of jobs and the lack of healthcare for those who do not have it is staggering in this country and yet....the dumbing down of America will prompt yet another crop of voters who wants to fight over OIL for another 8 years to vote for McCain....and I would remind everyone that one of the consequences of all these Wars McCain is talking about and chasing people to the "Gates of Hell" is bringing back the DRAFT.
Thank goodness, not a lot of people base their decision on whom they will vote for because of Polls.

They mean nothing in these times of cell phones, internet, etc.

So I agree with Nashville_Fan, let the Media continue to call this a close race.  

That way the Repukes will try to steal it based on that assumption and when they get the overwhelming real numbers at the polling booths - they won't be able to fix them to John McCain’s advantage.

There will simply be too many voters for Barack Obama...our next President of the United States.

Thank you and GOD BLESS AMERICA  
do you think this is news? The media feeds us this stupid poll info, which we know is not correct and forgets to inform that McCain wants to bring back the draft. How stupid those the media think we are? They should do there job, the only person to do so was countdown with KO. See video.The rest of the media is affraid of McCain's whining team.
National polls before the conventions mean NOTHING.

Daily tracking polls this far out mean NOTHING.

I'm glad the navel-gazing media has something to publish because this is not news to anyone who follows presidential campaigns. First Read, like every other news organization has to print something so this will do as a story for now. When the conventions are over and the state-by-state numbers start to solidify, then we can talk polls. The presidential election is about the Electoral college and it will be individual states that make up those numbers. NOT national polling or daily tracking polls. So, the "its getting closer" routine is basically meaningless.
The choice is obvious Barack needs Hillary to win. I don't feel he will pick her and she is certaintly not my favorite person. However she has all of the attack abilty of of Biden and she comes with 18 million supporters. Unfortunately Bill is considered a wild card. But I ask you who works harder than Bill Clinton. And asside from his gafs that made him appear to be a racist (for which he is not) he can be compelling and spot on. Better the right hand of the Devil than in his path. This would be a combination that could not be beat. Obama taking the eloquent high road and the Clintons knee capping McCain at every turn. McCain will spend so much time on defense that if he has a policy no one will know what it is.
WOW JERRY!!! I am so proud of you! You had ONE WHOLE post and didn't say anything racist and didn't throw out any ignorant lies or slash tactics! Although we disagree on a candidate,(and obviously disagree that McCain stay on topic with the issues), I am so very proud of you! Amazing isn't it, to something without spreading the hate! Itt is a good feeling is it not Jerry! Kudo's to you Jerry. Donna check it out, we knew he could do it!
Come on FR, do some work on how McPantsonfire can't tell how many homes he owns, and how he agrees that we need to reinstate the draft.

Keith O is doing a fine job but he alone can't fight the whole Republican Lie Machine. He needs some assistance from all nuetral/sane parties.

Rachel Maddow's show can't come fast enough!

RIP Congress woman Stephanie Tubbs Jones! I admired how you fiercely stood up for Hillary without tearing down Barack in the process.
Have a little faith in our candidate, people! Most Americans aren't even tuned into the elections yet, so these polls mean nothing. Once the spotlight centers it's light on McFossil, people will see what a flawed, inept candidate the GOP has to offer and the polls numbers will go back to Barack. People will begin to realize what a phony John McCain truly is and what an elitist he is with his 10 homes and $500 Italian loafers. Don't be discouraged. It's early still and the Obama people are smart; he didn't get THIS far to lose now! Obama '08!
Whats in the polls that the msm dosn't talk about,reason is that they would screw there experts high tech talk to hell.You see the people that are being polled are people that have land lines in there homes and are mostly the over 55 crowd.Now the msm knows full well that the new voters (voters that do not support the repubs) are younger folks that do not have land lines, as well alot of others.Now if you had those numbers you would see that Obama would be way ahead.With all the millions of new voters that will be voting this year there might be a double  digit lead for Obama.Now If you had polls that were consistant (most are all over the map)then you could talk about something that was more in line with the facts.But i've notice that the msm isn't really into the truth or the facts.Now why would the bomber fans be so upset with how smart that Obama is compared to the War-rior(The truth hurts,what kind of name is that,sounds like a name a paid blogger would use.)But my guy had finished 894 out of 899 at Officers Canadate school and wasted a ton of money that could have been spent on someone that really wanted to excel,how would you feel knowing that you didn't get selected so tha bomber could go and chase skirts unstead of study.
Why don't you guys talk about the alarming actions of McCain over the Georgia problem.  The NYT has had a series of excellent articles this past week or so that clearly show that McCain and his advisors were egging Georgia on, even when the Bush Admin was warning Georgia not to move against S. Ossetia.  It is widely believed that Georgia was trapped by the Russians (and McCain) into a terrible move that not only leaves Georgia in a bad situation but has pulled the US into an escalating hostility w/ Russia.

Obama's ads abut mcFOOL are not negative ads,
I'd call them PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS!!!

mcFool's ads are crafted with lies... like McStupid's stump speeches.

Nashville Fan,

Thanks for that. I needed it.  It's true that it has been a virtual tie all along and, as someone else pointed out, people are moving from Obama to undecided, not to McCain.  So there is still plenty of time for Obama to win them back.  *(again, I don't know why I am typing this.  My comments never appear on the site.  But, I keep trying anyway).
Democrats have only themselves to blame. They voted for the person they wanted Obama to be, unfortunately he isn't anything like their dreams. Obama is a fool and a charlatan. Every day more and more people are figuring that out. He is going to lose big in november.

Every presidential election cycle it is the same thing. Democrats nominate the fool and republicans continue to rule.

If democrats had a brain they would have nominated Hillary. She would have coasted to the presidency. The dems know that now but life in their echo chamber prevents them from admitting it.


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