First thoughts: How the West was won

Posted: Sunday, August 24, 2008 10:53 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DENVER -- With its competitive battlegrounds and with the Democrats’ convention taking place here in the region, much has been made of the West and Mountain West in this presidential election. In fact, a few states out here -- Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, even Montana -- could end up deciding the race. And now with virtually every political reporter in Denver, and with them probably working on stories about the West, a round of new polls by Mason-Dixon and the Denver Post, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, and the Salt Lake Tribune will give everyone something to chew on. The polls have some good news and bad news for both McCain and Obama. On the plus side for McCain, he’s surprisingly up by four points in New Mexico (45%-41%) and seven points in Nevada (46%-39%). On the minus side for him, he’s ahead only by six points in his home state of Arizona (47%-41%), and he’s trailing Obama by three in Colorado (46%-43%), although a new Quinnipiac poll out today has McCain up one in this state (47%-46%).

*** Not everyone’s on message: Not surprisingly, Obama’s pick of Biden and their event together in Illinois are dominating today’s political headlines. But to us, the most interesting news wasn’t Biden’s tough words about McCain, Obama’s emphasis of his new running mate’s working-class appeal and Catholic faith, the McCain camp’s rapid-response TV ad, or even the fact that Biden got the VP call while at the dentist. Rather, it was the words of praise that the pick got from key Republicans. Here was Dick Lugar’s statement: "I congratulate Sen. Barack Obama on his selection of my friend, Sen. Joe Biden, to be his vice-presidential running mate. I have enjoyed for many years the opportunity to work with Joe Biden to bring strong bipartisan support to United States foreign policy.” And here’s Chuck Hagel’s: “An Obama-Biden ticket is a very impressive and strong team. Biden's selection is good news for Obama and America.” Wow, talk about the GOP not necessarily being on message. In fact, we think it’s safe to say that we won’t see a single Democrat senator praise Romney, Palwenty, or even Lieberman if McCain picks either man as his running mate.

*** Joe’s lockdown: Obama campaigns today in Wisconsin, tomorrow in Iowa, Tuesday in Missouri, and Montana on Wednesday -- all without Biden. In short, they won’t stump together again until after convention. While that move seems surprising at first glance, think about it this way: The images we saw yesterday of Obama and Biden together in Springfield (with their sleeves rolled up, one wearing a blue tie, the other wearing a red one) will be the only images we’ll see of the duo until Thursday. It's all about message and image control -- something the Obama campaign has prided itself on these past 18 months.

*** Playing The Hillary Card: In the middle of the night -- at 3:00 am ET again! -- the McCain campaign unveiled a new TV ad to air in “key states” (read: we’re not so sure how big the buy is) that hits Obama for not picking Hillary as his VP. “She won millions of votes,” the ad goes. “But isn't on his ticket. Why? For speaking the truth.” It then shows Hillary whacking Obama over his policies, Rezko, and some of Obama's negative attacks. Just asking again... Does this mean that McCain WON’T be picking Romney as his veep, because the two men certainly disagreed on many issues during the primaries. Or does it mean that he WILL pick him, because Romney won a lot of votes through Super Tuesday? Nevertheless, with Hillary speaking on Tuesday and PUMAs on the prowl here in Denver, if there was a week when McCain and the Republicans would play up the Hillary-Obama split, it would be this week.

*** Today’s convention schedule: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, and Texas State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte hold a press conference at noon ET at the Colorado Convention Center… The DNC holds its Credentials Committee meeting at 1:30 pm ET at the Colorado Convention Center… The Western Majority Project has a media stakeout with Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar, and others beginning at 2:30 pm ET.

*** The RNC’s response: Republican National Committee chairman Mike Duncan holds walkthroughs for the TV media (at 4:00 pm ET) and print media (at 6:00 pm ET) at its response center in Denver.

*** On the trail: McCain remains on vacation in Sedona, AZ. Obama is in Eau Claire, WI, where he begins his day attending church services and then holds a BBQ.

Countdown to Dem convention: 1 day
Countdown to GOP convention: 8 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 72 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 149 days

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Comments

I was for Obama long before he announced he was running. I am now having second thoughts because of the absolute blindness of some of his supporters. He has many good thoughts and is very intelligent, but he is not God. To dismiss all other candidates as stupid is ignorant on your part. Keep it up and the Dems will lose my vote. Grow up and get your head out of your butt.

ABQ Granny (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:01 PM)

Negative accusations fueled with garbage, misinformation and even lies are not all that unusual in political campaigns, but as seen in 2000, 2004 and again in this campaign the Republican Party has made it their art form (Rove strategy). While they accuse the Democrats of negative attacks, which they have done, the Republicans have literally done nothing else from beginning to end and rarely address the real issues or their own positions. John Kerry lost in 2004 when he allowed the Republicans to get negative without adequately responding and now the Republicans act offended if Obama does respond. The Bush administration has been grossly dishonest throughout the last eight years and the Republican Party has supported that and now fully emulates it. But why does anyone buy into it? The Republicans accuse the Democrats of advocating a ‘tax and spend’ government with too many programs for the people while the Republicans clearly demonstrate a ‘spend and owe’ mentality that generates a humongous deficit, negatively impacts the economy, and only benefits a select few. History indicates that the average American typically enjoys a better economy, more spending power and a more just society with the Democrats in power, which of course then also benefits the wealthy. As an ex-Republican now Independent, I’m just wondering how anyone justifies overlooking what seems in their best interests and rationalizes a current Republican bias. The Christian Evangelist literally has to be sold on maintaining a limited conscience to overlook the sins of arrogance and gross dishonesty, the countless dead and injured in a falsely justified war, the government’s belligerent neglect of responsibilities and of most people and the flagrant and arrogant self-serving focus on benefiting Special Interests and a select few. Those honestly concerned with the economy have to be sold on accepting government spending, including excessive pork-barrel, that exceeds everything ever done before and again greatly benefits Special Interests and a select few. Those prudently feeling they are right-wing oriented have to be sold that ‘conservative’ really means to benefit only Special Interests and a select few and that benefiting the majority is ‘liberalism’. The public has to be sold that neglecting America’s infrastructure, Global Warming and other issues to focus on corporate America’s priorities and tax cuts for the wealthy is rational and is what should be done ignoring the penalties to be paid later. I’m sure there is more and that the Democrats are far from totally pure but my point is that it simply seems there are a lot of people who are convinced, ‘sold’ to accept things that are not in their best interests and who then strongly support those that really and continually do benefit. Why?

REG in AZ (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:05 PM)

Joe biden Washington insider. Joe Biden ladden with lobbyist, Joe biden,White House is not for on the job training, Joe Biden: Barrack Obama is NOT qualified to be president!!! DNC secret jails in Denver, right to protest squashed by Demencrats.. IS this Nazi Germany all over again?????? MSNBC censors all anti Obama post!!! should the Aclu be called in to read post at MSNBC to determine biased discrimination

Airmanc5 (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:19 PM)

I am a middle-aged Democrat liberal woman who voted for HRC in the primaries. I am pleased that Joe Biden got the nod for VP. I would like to see more clarification and discussion by all the candidates regarding policy implementation and philosophy; but as for being upset that HRC did not get the nod from Obama - nope, never thought about it frankly. So to the Obama supporters who tell the HRC supporters to get over - GET OVER YOURSELVES. And to the McCain supporters: Watch your back. Our candidate may not have won, but we are not without voice and power. And we don't want another 4 years of Bush/McCain

Tess, Orlando, FL (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:22 PM)

I wll try posting again as the previous 2 are not showing. First of all the Democrats that are faulting Bush for everything - your Democratic controlled Congress and Senate have done NOTHING in over a year except first thing on their agenda in the 100 day time-frame was that they were going to turn every bad thing around 360 degrees.. Oops, first thing they tackeled was more vacation time. Once that was off the table business as usual.
Last I checked their approvad rate was 14% - about 1/2 of Bush's.
I'm an Independent and think and choose in that manner - not along party lines. America does not need a President in Training Pants. He chose Biden so he would have an inside Mentor - which brings up another question - is Obama going to call his mentor everytime he gets a preconceived notion - by the way, that was Obama's own words. Obama needs Biden as a filter and buffer to keep his you know what from making idiotic decisions since he hasn't told the American people anything of substance...
Another point regarding a certain Democrat that is a mayor in Denver that invited the Al Jazzera News Network to his home for a BBQ ahead of the convention.
For those of you that are not familiar with Al Jazzera - it's a news network in the Middle East that aired videos from known terrorists of beheadings and shootings of hostages and IED's (roadside bombs) killing our soldiers - all in vivid detail and color and some with audio regarding the screams of the victims as their heads were sliced off. After outcry from soldiers and families of victims the mayor resinded his invitation...Obama thinks the way to deal with these sick murderers is to sit down and talk. Does the man have no common sense. These people use women and children as human shields with no remorse..Another example of Obama and his supports Not having a Clue as to what is being delt with.
People you need to wake up.

Phantom6 Julain CA (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:24 PM)

Hillary supporters should be apalled that her behaviour in the primaries has turned her into nothing but an advertising tool for the Republicans.
Quite the legacy.
Too, it would be nice if the Obama camp put out a negative spot every time McCain slips up and says something stupid. Unfortunately that would soon exhaust the advertising budget.

AP from IL (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:24 PM)

Uh, excuse me Amy -- did you miss the FIRST ad that McCain put out after the Biden VP announcement? It was in Biden's own words -- During the primary, it was Biden who made the worst statements about Obama - worse than Clinton and McCain put together!

Everytime I see a post from you Obama supporters, all I can think of is how I wish I had some swamp land to sell.

Why don't you start thinking for yourselves and stop regurgitating everything you read and hear.
Karen (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 11:43 AM)

Karen,

It is very true that Biden made those statements regarding Obama but your statement that it was the worse shows that you are just as gulliable to purchase the swamp land you offer to Obama supporters. Biden's statements will continuously be repeated but multiple statements made by Clinton (February thru June) will all served up on Republican platter using her own voice. Ex: "As far as I know he is not Muslim".

If you are so concerned about people not believing what they read and hear just wait until the additional McCain ads featuring more of Clinton's words and voice are made available for all to SEE! So, don't blame Obama supporters for Clinton's "by any means necessary" tactics during the Primary season.

Proverbs 15:18 (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:25 PM)

Obama should do a tv ad with a small summary of McCains gaffes. That would put his campaign aides in overdrive! This man has gone so low his mother can't recognize him. Hillary supporters do not like McCain he is so against women rights, they blame Obama for Hillary's lost, when we all know it was her husband issues and McCain . It's time to move on and go for the change this country needs so much.We can not let McBush keep America as it is. Obama/Biden 08

Amy (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:25 PM)

Hillary supporters please wake up!! Voting for McCain is not going to help your cause. An Obama loss will not mean a Hillary re-match in 2012. Hillary is done! She'll NEVER be President after what she has done and failed to do this campaign season.

A vote for McCain is a vote to not only continue the same old bad policies but add on worse policies. Don't think its possible? What will McCain do about the global issues faced with countries like Russia? Go to WAR! Think that is goig to help the ecconomy? Sure will, "'cause a dead guy can't flip a burger".

Get your head out of your butt!
Norm, New Hampshire

Norn, even if everyone one of us Clinton supporters joined in and elected obama, it's people like you that would never give Mrs. Clinton a chance. not now nor ever ! So why in the HELL should we join you now ? Don't say it's over the issues. !

Clinton Supporter (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:32 PM)

Why doesn't Hillary come out and condemn this "Passed Over" ad? She says she's doing more than anyone else to support Obama, yet she doesn't put a stop to this Republican line of attack. She should say that her supporters should be offended by this ad, suggesting that they go against all of their core beliefs and vote for McCain, just because they are angry she isn't on the Democratic ticket. Isn't Hillary offended by this ad, or does she secretly enjoy the attention?

Beth (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:33 PM)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aPfbo69bmO3g&refer=home

Whine, Whine, Whine = HRC and her Suppport Gang.
Give us all a break and come clean about REALLY being bigoted Republicreeps in disguise.

Frannie (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:40 PM)

Norm,

All we're seeing is our point of view and the love for our canidate being trashed. Obama hates her as much as you all do. If obama had been white the DNC would not have given him the nomination. Now, we're being black maled by him and you by saying if we don't join in she'll NEVER be Pres. Guess what, this was only time she will run. It was a one shot deal.
And all that she has recieved was mistreatment, and abuse from the DNC and so called friends (Supers). In the primaries I expect that from Obama. Not NOW ! He is such and lying vile disgusting excuse for a man. I'm sorry but no way can we stand by and watch this butchery of a former First Lady and someone who DOES deserve some respect !

Former Democrat (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:40 PM)

Of course McCain will only attack and not speak about real issues and I think I know why. He has his own state issues that he has refused to speak upon. I live in McCain’s home state and I’m quite embarrassed by the fact that he has stooped to this level of politics when he has serious issues in his own back yard.

As a senior senator; he hasn’t spoke up on the issues of civil rights and immigration. Is it because he shares the view of his beloved sheriff, Joe Arpio? He (Sheriff Arpio) has free reign to set up what he calls “A Task Force” to catch criminals when it is only a disguise of racial profiling and civil right violations. He set up these so called task force units in only predominately Hispanic and minority communities where he knows that illegal aliens are known to be or frequent. He does catch a few criminal legal Americans, but no reported high risk, dangerous repetitive criminals to justify using tax payer’s money to fund his own vendetta against people that don’t look like him. It has gotten so out of hand the Mayor called for an investigation, he disregarded that, the Governor cut his budget, he disregarded that and began using the tax payers money to fund his crusade. Finally the FBI decided to investigate it (haven heard what the outcome was). Sheriff Arpaio believes he’s above the law to where he has stated on local TV stations on many occasions that, “No one gonna tell him how to run his sheriff department not the Mayor or the Governor”. The tax payers have called for the county supervisor to step in and provide assistance and/or answers, but they have not and probably will only brush this under the carpet.

I know Senator McCain has seen the protest from one of his many homes in Arizona, or is he that out of touch? How can I believe that Senator McCain will protect us as a country when he won’t, can’t or is scared to stand up to his own sheriff and protect the people in his home state. And as a disabled veteran myself, I find Senator McCain’s constant use of his P.O.W. appalling. I do respect his service to this great country, but you’re devaluing every veteran and P.O.W‘s experience. This to me is equal to constant using the race card. We know it, we’re sorry, we respect it, cut the “pity party” and use it to build upon and make changes for every person who has ever served or will serve in the Army, Air Force, Navy or Marines.

I find it funny how the media chooses to overlook this story as well as others, and not ask the harsh questions of McCain. But what do you expect when they have a love fest for McCain.

Andrea, Phoenix, Arizona (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:47 PM)

I think not putting Hillary on the ticket was a very wise decision. Hillary would not have offered a guaranteed win as some believe. It would have rallied the republican base in ways we cannot measure and all of her awful campaigning would have been used every day of the general election campaign. I am glad that she is not the VP.

However having imagined what I would do if the situation was reversed and Hillary were the nominee, considering how much I do not want the Clintons back in the white house... I would have voted for her in a heartbeat rather than give my vote away electing a man like McCain, a man with war lust, a hot temper, who recently agreed he would need to reinstate the draft to 'chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell.' I would not vote for him out of spite. I would think of my daughter and the future I wanted for her and I would have voted for Hillary in spite of my dislike for her and my opinion that the she and Bill do not belong in the white house. I would not risk women losing the right to choose, having our civil liberties further diminished, and another 4 years of moving america further in the direction of a nation run by tyrants.

I ask Hillary supporters... please don't vote for McCain out of spite. Think of the future you will leave our children and grandchildren.

lauren, boulder, co (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:49 PM)

"McCain remains on vacation in Sedona, AZ."

Impressive indeed to see McCain make snap decisions that free him for his long weekends. Obama by contrast seems to deliberate big decisions before acting.

Jim Patrick, Buffalo, NY (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:56 PM)

The knee-jerk negative ad response of the McCain campaign to the Biden announcement, and their "bluster" response to the S. Ossetia confict, shows a party in serious reactive mode, with no clue what's coming next. The Dems are doing much better (Biden quietly went to Georgia to appraise the situation), and just need to continue setting the change agenda. The Rs have nothing new to offer, internationally or domestically, and will lose on this basis in November. Barack just needs to preserve his brand, and weave in more detail about how jobs will be kept from being sent overseas.

pierre in CA (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 3:09 PM)

RAPS - Rest Assured, PUMAS Suck.

If you are still petulant about someone else winning the nomination, please join the GOP and see how important your issues are to them.

Hillary's chance to be VP was flushed by April when the math turned on her, there was no way she could win, but she continued to insult and demean the nominee daily running up debt to do it. If we lose in November, a large share of that blame will rest on Hillary's shoulders for putting her ego above the good of the party and the country.

cmac (Sent Sunday, August 24, 2008 3:27 PM)

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