First thoughts: A new hope
Posted: Thursday, September 04, 2008 9:43 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
ST. PAUL, MN -- Last night’s speech by Palin made one thing very clear: Conservatives have found their Obama. Win or lose, Palin has already established herself as the future star of the party. She stayed within her comfort zone, avoiding issues she's not up-to-speed on just yet. The only question is whether her tough sarcastic words for Obama played well with swing voters, who were hearing her for the very first time. Republican strategists believe she did; Dems, on the other hand, thought she was a bit too hot with her rhetoric. By the way, it was interesting how one of the strategies with the speech was to pick a fight with Obama. The McCain folks are hoping Obama joins the scrum. He didn't take the bait, but his campaign released this statement: "The speech that Gov. Palin was well delivered, but it was written by George Bush's speechwriter and sounds exactly like the same divisive, partisan attacks we've heard from George Bush for the last eight years. If Governor Palin and John McCain want to define 'change' as voting with George Bush 90% of the time, that's their choice, but we don't think the American people are ready to take a 10% chance on change." Of course, for a campaign whose candidate was launched by speeches, is it smart to actually mock another person’s speech?
*** Palin’s challenges: But as a few newspapers remind us today, Palin’s speech last night was the easy part. Over the next nine weeks, she will have to survive the Troopergate story that could undercut her reform credentials (the Washington Post has some new emails from Palin on the matter); answer questions on specific policy matters to prove that she’s capable of being one heartbeat away from the presidency; and demonstrate that she and McCain have good chemistry. Remember that McCain had met Palin just once before the day he picked her. Can they overcome that to prove to voters that they’re a better team than Obama-Biden?
*** Now it’s McCain’s turn: Last week, Obama was able to soar over the previous speeches by Michelle Obama, Ted Kennedy, Hillary Clinton, and Bill Clinton. By the time we got to Invesco Field, you knew this was Obama’s party. Can McCain do the same thing after Palin speech last night? She made the Arizona senator’s job easier (she fired up the troops) and harder (can McCain ever win over the hearts of the base?). The good news for McCain is that last night had enough Obama contrast that they don't need to do that with McCain’s remarks tonight. Don't be surprised if the McCain speech is more about himself as a reforming change agent, rather than a speech filled with barbs at Obama. McCain's not known for his great speechmaking. But his chief speechwriter, Mark Salter, is someone who has a great sense of history, so no doubt this will read well for the books. Now, it's up to McCain to perform.
VOTE: Can McCain's speech top Palin's convention performance?
*** Red-meat night: Last night was a red-meat night, and an effective one -- much better for the GOP than Tuesday was. As for the sideshow of the evening, the unofficial 2012-16 primary, Huckabee seemed to top Romney on the speech front, but it may not matter since Palin seemed to trump them both. In fact, as we stated above, the GOP response to Palin reminds us a bit of how Democrats reacted to Obama in 2004. Then again, Obama's '04 speech was quintessential Obama (talking about uniting the country, a new hope, and a better tomorrow). What did last night’s speech tell us about Palin beyond her family and her attacks on Obama? That said, her appeal to be a fighter for families of special needs could really help with attracting those voters to cross party lines.
*** The Democratic response: Obama strategist Robert Gibbs and DNC adviser Jamal Simmons hold a conference call with reporters at 9:30 am ET.
*** On the trail: Obama is in Pennsylvania, stumping in York and Lancaster. Biden campaigns in Virginia, hitting Virginia Beach and Manassas before heading to fundraisers in DC. And Michelle Obama is in New Mexico.
Countdown to the first presidential debate: 22 days
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 28 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 33 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 41 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 62 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 139 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
