Battleground: The road ahead
Posted: Monday, September 08, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Here are the things we learned via the New York Times’ Sunday place-setter:
-- Indiana and Montana still on the Obama red-state wish list; Alaska and Georgia are not.
-- Oregon and Washington are back on the McCain wish list... is this simply a geographic thing since it'll be easy for Palin to stop off in the Northwest on the way home to Alaska? But when do we start seeing Team McCain advertising in these two states?
-- Speaking of wish lists, what's with the Arizona and West Virginia bravado from Team Obama? Actually, we can answer the WV question. They are already advertising in 60% of the state (thanks to VA and OH targeting), so why not add the other 40% of the state. But Arizona? McCain may only win by single digits, but does that make a target state with 57 days left?
-- Minnesota definitely appears to be off the GOP radar. Is Iowa next?
Bloomberg's Al Hunt writes, "There are several other elements that may prove more decisive in the next two months. One is the conversation and who controls it. Although the news-cycle-to-news-cycle battle is erratic, a campaign narrative usually emerges after a few weeks. In 1992, Bill Clinton capitalized on the sense that America was neglecting its domestic needs -- ‘It's the economy, stupid' -- and in the last election, an unpopular president prevailed as the challenger, John Kerry, was depicted as a waffler. There is the simple change (Barack Obama) versus experience (John McCain) match-up this time, although both sides made progress at their conventions in closing the gap on their weaknesses. Actually, these somewhat vague terms connect more to national security versus economic security.”
“‘If in October we're talking about Russia and national defense and who can manage America in a difficult world, John McCain will be president,' predicts Thomas Rath, the leading Republican strategist in the swing state of New Hampshire. ‘If we're talking largely about domestic issues and health care, Barack Obama probably will be president.’”
The Boston Globe’s Helman pointed out on Saturday a flip in personas on the trail. “Obama was the political celebrity, vaulted to the Democratic nomination less by his Washington resume and policy positions than his compelling life story and adoring fans. McCain was the less lustrous and charismatic figure, but, with half a century of service to the military and government, he emphasized substance and heft. How times have changed.”
“In a notable role reversal, Obama, seeking to answer criticism that he wasn't being specific enough, is campaigning on policy substance and meaty issues. McCain, trying to obscure his commonalities with an unpopular president, is celebrating his biography, especially his 5 1/2 years as a prisoner-of-war in Vietnam. ... While Obama this week has engaged in long, dry question-and-answer sessions with voters, McCain and his new running mate, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, spent their first post-convention day yesterday rallying big, boisterous Obama-esque crowds in Wisconsin and Michigan. McCain's campaign, which has relished mocking Obama's rock-star reputation, even handed out press credentials with a silhouetted image of a drum kit.”
