First thoughts: A tie ballgame
Posted: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 9:21 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** A tie ballgame: Major news organizations released three new national polls yesterday, and they all signaled the same thing: After the party conventions and VP picks, this presidential race is pretty much tied. The Washington Post/ABC poll had Obama up one point among registered voters (47%-46%). A CBS survey had McCain ahead by two (46%-44%). And CNN had the race deadlocked at 48%-48%. Tonight, our NBC/WSJ poll -- generally considered the gold standard of national surveys -- comes out at 6:30 pm ET on Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Will it show a similar result? The bad news for Team Obama is that this tied race is occurring in a pro-Democrat political environment, and skittish Democrats -- who haven’t won the White House since 1996 -- are going to wring their hands over any piece of bad news, which is never good for morale. The good news for them: In 2004, John Kerry found himself behind after the GOP convention by a significant margin, and he had to use three strong debate performances just to pull within striking distance. It doesn’t look like that will be the case for Obama and the Democrats this year.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at the new national polls that show Obama and McCain nearly tied and discusses the Illinois senator's fundraising efforts.
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What to watch for: The next thing to look for in polling is to see where in the battleground numbers shifted the most. Has Palin put the Republicans back in the game in the agricultural Midwest? Will these soft GOP states like Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana start tilting back to the GOP? What about the soft toss-ups like Florida or Michigan? Will they match the national number or tilt slightly GOP (in Florida's case) and slightly Dem (in Michigan's case?). Of course, the quality of publicly available state polls is not good, which will make judging the battleground even more difficult. Still, to truly know what's in play and not, keep an eye on the candidate schedules.
VIDEO: NBC News investigative correspondent Lisa Myers looks at Palin's record in her home state.
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Vetting Palin: Yesterday, nearly every news organization debunked the Palin claim that she told Congress “thanks but no thanks for that Bridge to Nowhere” -- a project McCain has railed against constantly on the campaign trail. (Not only did Palin support that bridge during her gubernatorial bid in 2006, but Congress essentially pulled the plug on it before Palin did, and she diverted the money for it to other projects.) Now comes a
Washington Post investigative piece reporting that Palin billed state taxpayers “for 312 nights spent in her own home during her first 19 months in office, charging a ‘per diem’ allowance intended to cover meals and incidental expenses while traveling on state business.” The article also notes that husband Todd “has billed the state for expenses and a daily allowance for trips he makes on official business for his wife.” The danger of these back-to-back stories: Palin could get painted as just another politician. Where have we heard this before? Opponents of Obama -- both now and in the primary -- tried to paint him as just another politician. But like Obama, Palin doesn't look like a typical politician, and that could help deflect some of these charges against her. Then again, with just two months to go, many voters still don’t know Palin, and that could make these stories (combined with the Troopergate investigation) a bit more problematic since every new piece of information gets amplified.
*** Mo’ money, mo’ problems? Today’s New York Times has an interesting story about the pressure the Obama campaign is feeling on the money front. The campaign has a BIG budget, and suddenly they realize they need every dollar possible. We likely won’t know how much the Obama camp raised in August until next Saturday (September 20), but the article has a spokesman saying that it was it’s best month; if true, the haul will be more than $55-$56 million. But the pressure is definitely on. Campaign manager David Plouffe told the Times: “We’re confident that we will meet our financial goals, but it’s hard work. We have a long way to go in the next six weeks." Anyone thinking that Obama is having second thoughts about skipping the federal money and drying up indie groups? As everyone learns over time when it comes to campaign finance issues, the public never cares what a candidate does regarding his campaign money as long as it's legal. Because one decides to do something that they claim is more ethical, they rarely get rewarded politically. If anything, they sometimes get penalized.
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VIDEO: TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to NBC's Tom Brokaw about how the presidential election is shaping up now that post-convention polls are showing a very tight race.
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School’s in session: Today, Obama gives a speech on education and launches a new TV ad on the subject that mentions McCain -- but NOT Palin. This is an attempt to change the subject onto a terrain where Obama can claim he's not spewing typical Dem talking points, as well as launch
an ad where he's targeting McCain and McCain alone. The ad goes: “John McCain voted to cut education funding. Against accountability standards. He even proposed abolishing the Department of Education. And John McCain’s economic plan gives two hundred billion more to special interests while taking money away from public schools.” Has the Obama campaign concluded that the less they talk about Palin, the less others may talk about her?
*** The Price is Right? Speaking of targeting older white women, we’ve learned from an ad-tracking source that the McCain camp is buying network TV ads -- about $400,000 worth so far -- targeted to morning shows, game shows, and soap operas. There may be no more important group of voters than older white women, and buying daytime network TV might actually be a cheaper and more efficient way to reach these folks, say, in southern Ohio, than it is trying to buy the right syndicated show at the right time in the Cincy TV market. Plus, this is a good way for the McCain camp to see if they can get movement in some other states like Oregon or Washington, where if they had more time, Palin's candidacy might actually help just a tad.
*** Down the ballot: By the way, seven states vote today! There are interesting congressional primaries in New Hampshire and (especially) New York, as well as in Minnesota, where Al Franken today officially becomes the Dem nominee for US Senate.
*** On the trail: McCain and Palin already began their day with a rally in Lebanon, OH and later head to a rally in Lancaster, PA. Obama holds a town hall on education in Lebanon, VA. And Biden is in Missouri, stumping in Columbia and St. Louis.
Countdown to the first presidential debate: 17 days
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 23 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 28 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 36 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 56 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 133 days
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