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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Battleground: Back to the 2004 map?

Posted: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 9:12 AM by Domenico Montanaro

The Wall Street Journal has a good tally to illustrate that the Obama campaign, once proud to tout the diversity of unconventional states it hoped to put in play, is buckling down in traditional swing battlegrounds. "A campaign that visited nine states in mid-August has focused almost exclusively on three this month. Since closing out the convention, Sen. Obama will have held 21 campaign events through Tuesday, 18 of them in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. "
 
THE WEST: Team Obama is redeploying volunteers in Texas into nearby battleground states Colorado and New Mexico. "Last spring, Barack Obama promised to help Texas Democrats try to win legislative seats and down-ballot races, even though he was considered unlikely to carry the Lone Star State. But with less than two months before the Nov. 4 election, Mr. Obama is sending Texas volunteers to battleground states, placing less emphasis on campaigning inside the state."
 
The New York Times notes the influence of early voting in western battleground states. "Early voting is a relatively new phenomenon in American politics, and its influence varies widely by region. But significantly, Southwest states that have emerged as McCain-Obama battlegrounds this year -- Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico -- are hotbeds of early voting, as is Florida, where one million people have already requested a ballot. But early voting is far less prevalent in contested Eastern states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia."
 
FLORIDA: Another potential problem at the polls to look out for going into November. Florida's Secretary of State says he intends to enforce a law that would prevent voters whose ID doesn't match existing records from registering to vote. Opponents say the controversial measure will disenfranchise voters.  
 
GEORGIA: Georgia Republicans have enjoyed poking fun at the Obama campaign's expenditure of more than $2 million of television advertising in the state after it confirmed yesterday that it will move some of its staffers to nearby North Carolina, an implicit acknowledgement that its hopes of turning the Peach State blue may have been overly optimistic. "Campaign officials declined to specify how many of approximately 75 paid Obama staffers will be redeployed, and denied that the move signaled reduced expectations in the state."
 
MICHIGAN: Susan Rice, one of the female surrogates deployed by Team Obama in the wake of the Sarah Palin veep nomination, told an audience of Michigan women, "If we don't win Michigan, it's going to be hard to put together 270 electoral votes."
 
MISSOURI: Newsweek takes a look at Obama's chances in the Show-Me State, where John Kerry's promises to "show George Bush the door" in 2004 earned him a loss by more than seven points. 
 
NEW MEXICO: Readers of the Albuquerque Journal's online edition are already being asked to vote in an online poll: "Sarah Palin: Enough Already? Or Do you Still Want More Coverage?"
 
OHIO: Remember that Sick Days ballot initiative in Ohio? While you were convention-ing, SEIU agreed to strip it from the Ohio ballot, much to the relief of Democrats in the state who found themselves at odds with business interests and their own governor by supporting it.

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So what state is Obama going to pick up in 2008 that Kerry lost in 2004? My sources say NONE.

Barry Obama - One and out US Senator
The Presidential Election of 2008 has become the most despicable, hideous, unethical, shameful, and odious election in American history. We, the American people, are only hearing about the issues from one campaign. The other campaign is spewing smears and lies, no policy. The American people are being denied the opportunity to learn about the VP candidate for the Republican Party. We only hear what the party wants us to know. This scenario reminds me of Stalin’s Soviet Union, Hitler’s Nazi Germany and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq just to name a few. American soldiers have fought and given their lives to protect us from governments like these, and yet, the Republican campaign is emulating these governments. Has the Republican campaign already taken over the media? I hope not. So then, why are you sitting on your key boards? Shame on the media, it is your job to inform, to fight for truth, justice and the American way. But you are not. I want to be informed. It is your job to help educate society.

A democracy can exist and prosper only when its society is educated. A good education enables people to evaluate the facts of the issues and policies. But without the facts, people get carried away by the lies they are being told as happened in Nazi Germany. Because of the tactics being used in this campaign, I seriously question the intelligence of this country. It appears that ideology has superseded rational and logic. I fear for our democracy. We need the facts.

I plead with all Americans, regardless of political party, to carefully listen to the facts and solutions that both campaigns are offering to the massive problems that our great nation is facing, not to the smears and lies. We need a president that is knowledgeable, intelligent, conscientious, a good listener, and has good judgment. These are all attributes of quality and it is always quality over quantity. All of our candidates have experience, but experience(quantity) doesn’t always equal quality.

I love my country, but my heart is aching over the campaign tactics of this election.

Do the right thing, make America great again,

Lefty






"If we don't win Michigan, it's going to be hard to put together 270 electoral votes."
Well I think its going to be hard to get to 270.

I was saying for awhile Michigan is in play.
Howard Dean should be fired.(along with the rest of the Michigan Dem hierarchy. they caused this
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Leave it to Flori-duh and Ohio to pull out the same old bag of dirty tricks they do every election.
You can put Lipstick on a Pig, but it's still a Pig!  "Piggy" McCain and "Piggy" Palin think that they can put on some lipstick and say the GOP has been reborn but it's still the same old party of pigs with the same old failed policies and the same old liars.  No amount of lipstick will ever change the GOP from being the party of pigs, the fat rich and greedy variety that need to have some of their fat trimmed with tax increases.

So funny that the Dumb and Dumber ticket can hurl the insults but can't take the return fire.  If they can't take the heat of a presidential campaign then they surely can't stand up to the foreign leaders who will call them much worse.

Pretty sick that the Dumb and Dumber ticket puts up an ad supporting pedophiles.  Instead of backing a bill that would help educate young children to avoid pedophiles the repugnant ones are attacking it.  Why do the repugnant ones hate young children so much when they puke out so many?  Why are the repugnant ones supporting pedophiles instead?

Got to like the way team Obama changes campaign strategy on the fly as conditions change.

Only Obama/Biden will protect young children against pedophiles!

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
I have not been polled this election cycle.  But have been in the past.  I am skeptical about polling in general; but begrudgingly admit, about half of my fellow Americans appear to be completely insane.  Wow,...just Wow.  Tough pill to swallow this week.
FLORIDA: Another potential problem at the polls to look out for going into November. Florida's Secretary of State says he intends to enforce a law that would prevent voters whose ID doesn't match existing records from registering to vote. Opponents say the controversial measure will disenfranchise voters.  
88888888888888
And, what is wrong with this?  We've had so many issues with voter fraud. Why not make sure that those who vote are who they say they are?
8888888888888
GEORGIA: Georgia Republicans have enjoyed poking fun at the Obama campaign's expenditure of more than $2 million of television advertising in the state after it confirmed yesterday that it will move some of its staffers to nearby North Carolina, an implicit acknowledgement that its hopes of turning the Peach State blue may have been overly optimistic.
88888888888888
Guess it just shows that money can't buy everything, Obama. Guess all this outlandish spending trying to buy votes has led to your money woes?
8888888888888
People wondering about why women might vote for McCain-Palin.  Haven't heard anybody say that folks that were voting for Obama might have been doing so to be part of an historical moment.  Now, they have another choice to do the same with a female veep.  I do laugh at people who say women shouldn't vote for Palin "just because she's a woman" yet those same folks accept that it's okay for people of color to vote for Obama simply because of his race.
The Obama camp fell victim to its own hype, and reached for the stars, moon, and sun.  I, for one, never believed that Obama was even competitive in Georgia.

Another thing that troubles me about Obama's campaign is the amount of money they are spending on 'volunteers'.  In my definition, a vounteer is someone who gives time and talent without compensation;  her in NJ, at least, the Obama campaign hired high school and college students this summer as 'volunteer activists'.  Paid volunteers in NJ?  The bluest of the blue states?  If THAT is the level of enthusiasm for Obama, he really is in trouble.
I don't think this is really news.

Every campaign starts broadly then focuses on the swing states.

First Read is basically just repeating conventional wisdom.

http://www.rodneyhopper.com
Sorry Texan Dems. you're on your own!  Again Obama doesn't keep his word.  I'm beginning to have serious doubts about his credibility.

Just remember DNC, we could have had Hillary!

I wonder if the repub lawyers are already down there to change the results.
The breadline starts in Florida.
Apples for sale on every street corner.
Why go back to the 2004 map. If I remember correctly, Bush won and Kerry lost. End of story.

And the swift boat people haven't even started yet.
And you can't fool middle America.
Early voting, IMHO, is why the Obama campaign must compete to win the daily news cycle.  They are talking plenty about the issues, and the Repugs are talking plenty about things OTHER than the issues, and look who the MSM's more fascinated with?  

We don't all vote on the same day.  And whoever these independents are -- people that are engaged enough to get out and vote but apathetic enough not to care about why they're voting a particular way -- these are the people that vote on the news cycle.  And they also probably LOVE American Idol.

Either way, the Obama campaign needs to get after it and make the economy, jobs, Iraq, lies, cronyism, and Bush the front page article in each newspaper.
If you can't prove citizenship, then you can't vote. There are 12 million illegals in this country and more coming every day. Measures need to be in place to prevent non-Americans from voting. A photo-id isn't much to ask for to be able to vote.
After all the trouble Obama's people have been going to to grab states that Kerry lost in '04, are we really going back to more of the same?  And as to Florida's corrupt government and it's voter-suppression tactics, we ARE going to go for  more of the mcsame, aren't we?
[Susan Rice, one of the female surrogates deployed by Team Obama in the wake of the Sarah Palin veep nomination, told an audience of Michigan women, "If we don't win Michigan, it's going to be hard to put together 270 electoral votes."]

The way the Democrats have treated Michigan ie, their votes don't count, then count by half, and then all count when it didn't matter anymore, Michigan-ders should quit the party. I know I did. This, on top of the corruption by Detroits Democratic mayor, and the Democratic senators not doing a thing for the state, and the Democratic governor doing even less. Democrats have not been good for Michigan, why should they elect one for President?
I'm just as worried about my state of VA being subjected to voter disenfranchisement. Thankfully, Tim Kaine, our governor, is aware of the potential for irregularities and has requested volunteers to oversee the voting process.

Memories of Katherine Harris in Florida in 2000 reminds me of the lengths that the Repubs will go to win an election. Heck, we're still suffering from the consequenses of that fiasco.

GO OBAMA/BIDEN 08/12
I wonder what reasons are for making the switch.  I hope that they aren't relying on the polling done by mass media.  Part of this deals with people's immediate reaction to Palin who should not be on the ticket at all given that she is nothing more than an ideolog.
Obama is going to win Michigan, Ohio, New Mexico and Florida in a landslide. I just love these recent polls because it is downplaying the expectations which is great for the race at the moment. GOP, remember no GOP Candidate in recent history has ever lost Ohio in GE and won the white house. Your chicken is coming home to roost!
McCain/Palin = Magical Mystery Tour 2008
THE RECENT POLLS.  McCain & Palin are crushing Obama & Biden with Independent voters --- the people who will decide this election !!!
When Hillary started hammering him, Obama barely backed into the nomination after losing 9 of the last 14 races.  When November comes, it will be 10 of the last 15.  His support is thin among Hillary supporters. If you ask me, Palin's the most authentic, McCain's got the best experience and judgment, Biden is too wacky and unstable, and I can't trust an ATNA (all talk no action) Obama to keep his word more than 30 seconds.  I'm voting Palin/McCain.
Honey the Best

I agree with you. McCain is already blowing his convention bounce, being overly confident and flagrantly swiftboating Obama in petty attack ads. Even Palin's best friends in Alaska are not backing McCain just because he put their friend on his ticket, they are not stupid. I think Obama is doing better than the polls indicate. The Democratic convention was powerful and Dems came out united. The media loves a horse race, but I think its going to be an Obama landside.
Okay, folks. Question.  Where is the outrage for Westmoreland calling Senator Obama "uppity"?  That was a true racist remark, and people should be really angry about it.

As for the "pig in lipstick?"  I saw the speech, it was clear that Obama was NOT referring to Palin, the audience reaction was about Bush/McCain policies, not Palin.  Which can only mean one thing.  For McCain(read that: Rove) to try to drive this as an insult, it is clear that McCain/Rove think that Palin is a pig.

I await with interest McCain's apology for the "uppity" remark.
Obama will win this election big.  What the media hasn't mentioned is all his early money went to this ground organization and getting people registered to vote.  Colorado will be a blue state this year due to the heavy turn out and the voter registration drive Obama employed early.  McCain took his eye off the ball in the mountain states and will pay for it.  he will lose CO and NM... count on it.
People asking what states Obama can carry from 04 that Sen. Kerry didn't. Obama is up in New Mexico and Nevada is leaning Obama while Colorado, Fla and Virginia are pretty much tied. Not saying he wins those but you asked and now you have an answer. Oh and I have no respect for McCain any more. Teaching kids to know if they are being molested is sex education?? McCain says Obama only cares about winning an election and then puts this out there? What happened to wanting to debate on the issues? Give me a break. If most voters had a brain in their heads this election wouldn't be close but yet it is.
The Obama camp needs to run a spot linkng the lies of the Mcain campaign with those of the Bush adm. leading up to the Iraq war. more lies, more of the same, no respect for the votes.
If you can't win honestly, win dishonestly.  The games have begun in Flordia.  To American Voter: I did not know the polls were flooded by illegal immigrants.  If you were illegal, would you risk being outted to vote?  We can't get legal citizens to vote.  This is all about people who don't have id being denied the right to vote (ie. poor and elderly).  Let's see the evidence of voter fraud before we impose this.  
I fear for Americans because people do not vote in their best interest...

Those voting for McCain/Palin to hurt Obama will only hurt themselves...

My husband and I have a farm that is paid for...we can grow and raise the food that we eat...we have income that will take us pass the next 4 years...our children are too old to be sent off to fight one of McCain's and Palin's wars...so my children will not fill the war body bags...my grandchildren are too young to be drafted into the military...

So you McCain/Palin lovers...please do not put you own families at risk...with these two in office you are on your own...good luck...

This race is not about McCain and Obama...it is about Americans looking out for themselves...if you want more of the same vote for McCain...

People that live in Florida vote for things that are not in their best interest all the time...and then complain about the results...Florida has one of the worst education systems...high taxes and high insurance and high jobless rate...the Republican are in power and do not care about the middle class or the poor...homeless women with babies are sleeping in parks in Florida....the Republican lead State does NOTHING to help...but McCain says they are on there own.

It is really sad...and the rest of the world just laugh at us...as they take our jobs and grow more powerful...
I don't think it's out of the picture for GA.

There are lots of colleges/universities (ie young voters), as well as a significant African-American population (about 28%, I think). While there are a lot of Rebublicans here, our volunteer voter registration drives have been VERY successful.

These pollers don't call college students. I'm 24, voted in the 2004 election and only have a cell. Most of my friends are the same. And guess what? None of us has ever been called for a national poll.

This leads me to think that increased voter registration by the Obama campaign means there are hundreds of thousands of new voters that will come out that aren't being polled.

Not making any predecitions, but I am saying don't be surprised if there's a surprise in GA!
FLORIDA: Another potential problem at the polls to look out for going into November. Florida's Secretary of State says he intends to enforce a law that would prevent voters whose ID doesn't match existing records from registering to vote.  


I live in Florida and I am sick and tired of my vote not counting in elections.  

I thought it was just Jeb but now I see that any repub will do anything to steal an election. With prices being what they are and people being forced out of their homes and having to move and downscale, as long as your license was valid food was more important than changing the address.

Now I see the kids are having cereal for supper this week or they get stuck with God knows what with Palin. As long as it was me in the picture and I had something else with my name and the same address as on my voter registration card I could vote.

I see this as one more way to steal an election. Thank you Gov Crist.

IMO the campaign probably knew all along their focus would narrow over time, that always happens.  There are at least 3 reasons why this could have been the right thing to do all along; 1) Swing for the home run.  If the original strategy had lead to a clear electoral landslide the GOP would be marginalized for a long time.  2) If the campaign wins by a smaller electoral margin the popular majority becomes more important to establish a mandate for change.  3) Backing for Howard Dean's 50 state strategy, which is the only hope the Democratic party has to not fight in the mud with the Republicans every 4 years for a long time to come.
I FEEL THE SAME AS LEFTY IN CA. IT IS A SHAME WHAT IS GOING ON!!!!! ALL THE TRASH WE HEAR IN THIS ELECTION IS AWFUL, NO WONDER WE ARE THE LAUGHING STOCK OF THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why don't we hear more about Diebold-gate.  The affair is still a BIG issue.  We can't let the Flordia fiasco, or Ohio happen again.  Bush is our unlikely president because the GOP cheated.  They will try again.  

Don't be fooled! WAKE UP!

Here in Florida because of the Regugnant Congress and Governer (Jeb Bush and Crist)we still won''t have a PAPER TRAIL.  Our democracy depends on Diebold's corruptable results!  

PLEASE MSM - GIVE THIS STORY THE ATTENTION IT DEMANDS!
Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Religion, Right to a Trial - The US Bill of Rights. If you don't believe in them then vote Republican.
The Secretary of State is doing in Florida isn't trying to discourage illegals from voting. It's a move designed to prevent younger, college-aged people (who are predominently for Obama)from voting. Younger people move a lot.  Some live in one location during school.  They may live in another location over the summmer. They may rent multiple times after they graduate. If the government has your last known address as being your parents' address, and your drivers license has your latest apartment listed as your address, they aren't going to let them vote.

Older people, who are for McCain, tend to be homeowners. And people haven't been selling homes lately.

It's just a way to drastically cut into Obama's voting group and prevent as many of them as possible from voting in Florida.

It's classic "dirty tricks" politics. Forget about a person's "right" to vote. Let's try to stop as many of them who are eligible from voting a we can, since most of those young people are for Obama.
Tactically the Obama campaign is still working towards the end state.  However I would NOT give up on Georgia!  The excitement among Blacks, young people and Hispanics (republicans these are LEGAL hispanics) is not being measured or captured by the polls.  The voter registration increase accross these demographics will surprise the Georgia republican Bushites!  Similar argument applies to Colorado!  For Obama to be our next President he must win his democratic base along with New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania.  All of these will turn Blue!
BT Kone, yup. Because the states that Kerry lost are still too STUPID to realize they made the wrong choice.
You can't just keep making things up Republicans.


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