First thoughts: The map 50 days out
Posted: Monday, September 15, 2008 9:23 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The map 50 days out: The Palin bounce has erased Obama's lead in the national polls, and it has now cut into his electoral-vote advantage, according to NBC’s latest map. Obama holds a 233-227 edge here, down from his 228-200 advantage from last week. The biggest changes: We moved Florida -- with its 27 electoral votes -- from Toss-up to Lean McCain, and New Mexico from Toss-up to Lean Obama. We also shifted Oregon and Washington from Likely Obama to Lean Obama, as well as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota from Lean McCain to Likely McCain. The good news for McCain is that the map looks better for him than at any point so far in this race, and many of those red states that looked like opportunities for Obama (AK, GA, IN) look to be longer shots for him. The bad news for McCain is that given the wave his campaign has been riding from the Palin bounce, is this as good as it gets? If he isn’t leading in some states now, he might not ever lead in them. Bottom line: You'll know the map is starting to move in one direction or the other if either Pennsylvania or Florida moves back into Toss-up before Election Day.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the Sarah Palin affect on the NBC electoral vote map.Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM OR, PA, WA (61 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)
*** A bearish turn on Wall Street: The big news today is that Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, while Merrill Lynch had to sell itself to Bank of America. As ex-Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson puts it, this Wall Street crisis is a 3:00 am moment for both the McCain and Obama campaigns. They each issued statements this morning, but what else do they do to seize the economic issue as their own? And just what is the role of the government in this Wall Street mess supposed to be? That's also going to be a question to the two nominees. The two statements, by the way, really are striking in their differences. One can clearly see that Obama would be an interventionist on the economy -- much more so than McCain. This is going to be a tricky issue for McCain, since most folks want government involved when there is a crisis; they don't want government involved when things are going well. McCain's going up with a new TV ad on the economy, acknowledging the crisis. But this is one that may be harder for him to distance from than other issues.
*** Liar, liar, pants on fire? For someone who prides himself on his "straight talk" -- and whose political reputation is based in part on that truth-telling reputation -- it was a brutal weekend for McCain and his campaign. The New York Times front-paged a piece noting all the criticism he has received for “stretching the truth; the Washington Post gave him “Four Pinocchios” for asserting on “The View” that Palin has never taken earmarks as Alaska’s governor; and Bloomberg News reported that the campaign may not have been exactly truthful in estimating the size of its recent crowds. Even Karl Rove said that some of McCain’s ads have gone “beyond the 100% truth test.” Now the Obama camp is doubling down on this criticism with a new hard-hitting TV ad that questions McCain's honor and the conduct of his campaign. “What’s happened to John McCain?” the ad asks. "He’s running ‘the sleaziest ads ever.’… After voting with Bush 90% of the time, proposing the same disastrous economic policies. It seems ‘deception' is all he has left.” But here's an important question to ask: Do campaigns that complain about tone win? Are those campaigns ahead when they complain about negativity?
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VIDEO: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports as the presidential race heats up in the wake of the pick of Sarah Palin, the McCain and Obama campaigns are hitting the airwaves with attack ads.
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Welcome back, Joe: After being overshadowed by his VP counterpart for much of the past two weeks, Joe Biden will echo that line of attack above in speeches he’ll give today in Michigan. “The campaign a person runs says everything about the way they’ll govern. John McCain has decided to bet the house on the politics perfected by Karl Rove,” he is expected to say, according to excerpts. “Those tactics may be good at squeaking by in an election but they are bad if you want to lead one nation, indivisible.” Biden will also refer to McCain as “Bush 44.” “If you’re ready for four more years of George Bush, John McCain is your man. Just as George Herbert Walker Bush was nicknamed ‘Bush 41’ and his son is known as ‘Bush 43,’ John McCain could easily become known as ‘Bush 44.’”
*** Northern Exposure: We were all waiting for the Saturday Night Live impression of Palin, and Tina Fey’s version wasn’t a favorable one. But the biggest worry for the McCain camp over the weekend was a New York Times investigation that found Palin’s management style to be eerily similar to the Bush Administration’s. The article alleged cronyism (making a high school friend the head of the State Division of Agriculture), punishing enemies (Troopergate may not have been an isolated incident), and secrecy (using a Yahoo email account to hide emails from FOIA requests). In fact, this piece, the reviews of her interview with Charlie Gibson, and even the SNL skits might have been the toughest coverage we’ve seen of any of the four principles this cycle. Will this bounce off of her? Or will it stick? No candidate for president or VP has gotten this kind of sustained negative print coverage since Rudy Giuliani (during those Bernie Kerik days) or Obama (with the Jeremiah Wright headaches).
*** Here come the indies: No, not independent voters, but independent groups. Whether they are 527s, 501c3s or 4s or something else, the outside groups are getting ready to bombard the airwaves. Defenders of Wildlife is up with a vicious ad against Palin regarding aerial hunting, and something called BraveNewPac is up with a Swift Boat-like interview ad with a POW saying McCain's unfit to lead. We've already seen an ad against Obama involving William Ayres. Is Rev. Wright about to pop up in an indie TV ad soon? With the race now so close, it appears these outside groups are going to have no problems finding sugar mommies and daddies to fund their weapons of mass distractions.
*** The week ahead: Obama is focusing on the West, while McCain teams back up with Palin for a trek through the Rust Belt and Midwest. Check out our new map: If Obama sweeps the three Western battleground states (CO, NV and NM), but McCain wins MI or WI, Obama still comes up short if he doesn’t win Ohio.
*** 50 questions for 50 days: With 50 days left in this campaign, we list 50 questions that we need to be able to answer by Election Day in order to get an idea of who is going to win. Scroll down to the end for all 50 questions.
*** On the trail: In his first solo rally since selecting Palin as his running mate, McCain stumps in Jacksonville, FL, then holds a town hall in Orlando, and raises money in Miami. Obama campaigns in Colorado, holding events in Grand Junction and Pueblo. Palin also stumps in Colorado, where she hits a rally in Golden before traveling to a fundraiser in Canton, OH. And Biden is in Michigan, where he attends rallies in Claire Shores and Flat Rock.
Countdown to the first presidential debate: 11 days
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 19 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 22 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 30 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 50 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 127 days
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