Battleground: Fresh new polls
Posted: Thursday, September 18, 2008 9:12 AM by Domenico Montanaro
CNN/Time/Opinion Research polls in five battleground states show the candidates locked in virtual dead heats. In a poll, conducted Sunday through Tuesday, Obama and McCain are tied at 48%-48% in Florida. According to the new numbers, McCain leads by six in Indiana and by a single point in North Carolina -- a traditionally red state where most other polls show him with a more pronounced advantage. Obama leads by two points in Ohio and three points in Wisconsin, the CNN poll says.
COLORADO: Colorado officials, mindful of the effects that their state's lengthy ballot could have on eleventh-hour vote counting on Election Night, are urging voters to cast their ballots early. Fun fact from the Denver Post: "The task confronting voters heading to the polls this November is considerable. With 18 ballot measures and referendums, plus numerous national, state and local political races, the ballot is the longest in the nation and the longest it's been in Colorado since 1912."
FLORIDA: The new CNN poll shows Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election and thought to lean in McCain's direction this year, at a dead heat at 48-48. More: "When Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, and Cynthia McKinney are added to the choices the 9/14-16 poll has it Obama 48%, McCain 44%." And: "Sixty-seven percent of Florida voters support expanded offshore drilling."
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined the hefty price tag he plans for the Florida competition. In a Web video for donors, Plouffe said that spending on ads, staff, and the campaign's ground game "is going to cost a little over $39 million, which is a big number."
INDIANA: Did we know that more than 500,000 new voters have registered in the Hoosier State since the beginning of the year? So reports the Wash. Post this morning. “In the battleground state of Nevada, there are 400,000 more voters registered than four years ago. More than 500,000 have registered in Indiana since the beginning of the year, prompting Secretary of State Todd Rokita to say this could be ‘the biggest Election Day in our nation's history in terms of turnout.’”
IOWA: "McCain's decision to hold an airport rally while skipping a tour of a city still reeling from summer flooding has some in Cedar Rapids grumbling. McCain, they say, is only the latest official to ignore their city's pain. 'That's exactly what's happening,' said Lee Clancy, a Republican and a former mayor who is coordinating flood recovery efforts. 'I don't know if his advance team is making him aware that there are significant needs here.'”
"McCain's schedule for Thursday calls for him to land at the Eastern Iowa Airport about five miles outside of Cedar Rapids, hold a rally at a private flying service with running mate Sarah Palin, then wing off to his next event. 'He's in and out,' said David Roederer, chairman of McCain's campaign in Iowa. There had been 'some discussion' about touring the flood-ravaged city, he said, but scheduling pressures barely six weeks before the election prevailed."
MICHIGAN: Unemployment in the nation's hardest-hit state has risen even higher. "Michigan's ailing labor market took another turn for the worse during August as the state's unemployment rate rose four-tenths of a percentage point to 8.9%. That marked the state's highest jobless rate since 1992 in the wake of a deep recession."
In an exclusive interview with the Detroit Free Press, "Elizabeth Edwards says the admission by her husband, John Edwards, of an affair has helped her focus on the importance of her children and issues like health reform as she goes through "an ongoing process of finding your feet again." More: "Asked whether she has forgiven her husband, Edwards replied: ‘I don't want to feed the monster, if you don't mind.’ She said that had her leg been amputated, instead of a child dying or her husband having an affair, people would not ask: ‘Are you over that leg thing yet?’”
NEW HAMPSHIRE: A new poll from ARG in New Hampshire shows McCain leading Obama 48-45. That's a flip from the poll's previous numbers from July and August, which both showed Obama with a very slight lead. The two candidates are dead even among the state's coveted independents, 45-45. (The ARG numbers also show Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen up 52-40.) And, notes the Union Leader's DiStaso, look for more polls out of New Hampshire early next week.
VIRGINIA: The state's chief political guru, Larry Sabato, tells the New York Times that Virginia Beach, VA, is the place to watch on election night. If it's competitive, Dems probably win the state; if the GOP gets a big margin, it'll be a GOP night.
