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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



More battleground polls

Posted: Thursday, September 18, 2008 1:48 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From NBC's Mark Murray
First, polls from AllState/National Journal:
-- Colorado: Obama 45%, McCain 44%
-- Florida: McCain 44%, Obama 44%
-- New Mexico: Obama 49%, McCain 42%
-- Ohio: McCain 42%, Obama 41%
-- Virginia: McCain 48%, Obama 41%

And here are state surveys from the University of Wisconsin:
-- Illinois: Obama 52.9%, McCain 37.0%
-- Indiana: McCain 46.7%, Obama 43.2%
-- Iowa: McCain 44.8%, Obama 44.8%
-- Michigan: Obama 47.8%, McCain 43.8%
-- Minnesota: Obama 47.3%, McCain 44.5%
-- Ohio: Obama 45.6%, McCain 45.1%
-- Pennsylvania: Obama 45.0%, McCain 44.6%
-- Wisconsin: Obama 45.2%, McCain 44.3%

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the tide has turned my friends!  sometimes this country makes me proud.
you think obama is ready to lead this country?  I am very scared for the american people if he gets in office. You guys got your heads up your butts if you think he's gonna do right by the american people, he doesn't even know how many american states there are, but he knows how many muslim nations there are.  First of all Sara Palin is the vice president candidate.  how about comparing McCain to Obama?  as far as democrate vp canidate joe biden, he has been in the senate for 30 yrs and has voted against the hard working american people every time.   you people in the media and in hollywood are ruining this country. you have so much money why don't you just give it to the poor instead of taking from us hard working americans  All you libs are self absorbed.   if obama wins, he's going to ruin this country and he's going to ruin it for the next black american that tries to run for president.  You wouldn't know a good person if they bit you on the nose.  the left is all about give aways and taking for themselves.  I'd like to see you post this cause I know you won't.  the country is in the shape it's in because of the dems, remember they run congress and the senate, they have a perfect scape goat in bush.  when it's all there fault.  I used to be a democrate, boy was i blind to you greedy pigs.  put lipstick on that.
Hey First Read, why not an entry here about Joe Biden telling rich people today they need to start being patriotic and pay more taxes?   I know it's a bit much to ask of a pro-Obama site, but I thought it was newsworthy.
Thanks for the data. As an Obama supporter, I sure liked the polls pre- Caribou Barbie and  First Dude better and I'm afraid that Sean Hannity and the other folks at Fox Noise will do everything in their power to insure that her star does not fade between now and Election Day.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
I can't wait until all those tens of thousands of people without LAND LINES and only CELL PHONES show up to vote.
Any estimate on the sample skew caused by cell phone only voters? That could turn out to be the "dark matter" of this election cycle as we watch the map turn blue early in the evening of the National IQ test.
Hmmmm, interesting polls . . . can't wait till election night when all of the newly registered voters give Senator Obama HUGE WINS in these close battleground states. That will be SWEET JUSTICE indeed.

P.S. When is someone from the media going to ask John McCain to "admit he was wrong" about the economy?

Anyone?

If not, why not?

Clearly he was wrong, and now he is flip flopping to save himself. Who's gonna call him on it?
Mark - can you clarify something for me?  Why the poll numbers are always 40% range?

I mean- are only 80% of the 100% of people polled actually mentioned - what about the other 20% or so percentage.

I can't image it to be the margin of error - it's extremely huge...and I would even say they would be in Barack Obama's favor...so without the BS media spin on the polls - Barack Obama would win every state mentioned in your piece - by about 15 - 20 percent.

Thank you and GOD BLESS AMERCIA
If McCain in the Values Forum in Aug.had answered that his greatest moral failure "was an adulterous affair and abandonment of my wife" (the truth)instead of just saying "my first marriage" (an evasion), I wonder if the rabid right would still think they're behind a man of character.
AND THE WALLS OF REALITY COME CRASHING DOWN!IT IS THE ECONOMY, STUPIDS! HELP, CECIL, HELP! OBAMA/BIDEN 08
I hope for the Dems sake that Obama turns in a great  debate performance because these polls are looking really bad.  How did he lose a 12pt lead in PA and his lead in WI?  He can not afford to limp accross the finish line like he did at the end of the primaries.  It's 1988 all over again:(

Obama '08
Bounce is gone.
Palin's novelty has worn off.
Reality has started to set in again.

McCain's ONLY chance is some kind of phenomenal performance in the debates and, well, that ain't gonna happen!

McCain and Palin are quickly becoming both National and International embarrassments. Time to get the little children engaging in make-believe off the stage. Bring on the HOOK!!!!!!!!!!

Here is the Obama Campaign manager, David Plouffe, outlining the battle state plan and how they are going to win. Check out the video on the match a new donor page (you don"t have to donate to see it.) https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/strategy3?match_campaign_id=15&match_is_pledge=1&source=20080917_DP_MND2

Obama and Biden are rational and cognitive adults who offer real and HONEST change for ALL Americans!

Obama/Biden 08
This shows me that there are too many states in flux.  This is going to be a good election provided that the debates don't change much. I guess that I should be prepared for a long night in November with my TV and computer.  Good thing that I have vacation time where I work so that I could go in late the next day.

Did any of these polls include third party candidates like Nader and Barr?  What was the margin of error?  How many people were serveyed?  These things matter.  
The Democrat Soldier -- The rest of the percentage are folks who undecided. That number will get smaller and smaller as we get closer to Election Day.

Thanks for reading and posting...
If you believe that the Bush Administration has been fair and righteous for the last 8 years you were sleeping. McCain cannot even keep his agenda straight or his choices clear. Obama speaks clear english about his intentions where he has been and where he is trying to go. Having a father that abandoned him at 2 years old with Muslim heritage does not make him a Muslim nor a supporter of the Muslim culture, that is a racist and uneducated view point to base your decision on. McCain and Palin have spent the last two weeks trying to use evasive action as their defense and dishonesty as their offense. Is anyone reviewing the issues at hand, does anyone want Social Security to be there when they retire. McCain would like that to be privatized and allow the corrupt corporations that are failing, going bankrupt and taking what little savings we have to have their hands on all of our retirement. McCain has abondoned what reputable ideals he had and is being lead by the same corrupt and greedy party that has been controlling the strings on Bush for the last 8 years. Put lipstick on that my friend..
beef curtains
Um, where did Iowa go??  The rest of the polls look good, but where did Obama's big lead in Iowa go?



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