More numbers on the Palin effect
Posted: Monday, September 22, 2008 2:24 PM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under:
Sarah Palin
From NBC's Carrie Dann
On a day that kicks off the second week of coverage of the crisis on Wall Street, here's some new numbers that shed some retrospective light on the support that appeared to be gelling for
McCain two weeks ago, when
Palin’s name was on still everyone’s lips instead of Fannie’s, Freddie’s, and Secretary Paulson’s.
A new Lifetime TV poll – conducted at the tail end of the Palin bubble and before last week’s economic seachange – indicates a major post-pick swing towards McCain-Palin from women who say that the GOP ticket offers a “better understanding of women and what is important to women.”
In Lifetime’s previous poll in late July, Obama easily won that metric by a margin of 52% to McCain’s 18%. But after the Republican nominee tapped the Alaska governor, who enjoyed a mostly positive opinion rating from 52% of respondents during the polling period, the percentage of women who responded that McCain better understands their needs jumped to 44%. Forty-two percent of respondents answered that Obama would make a better Understander-in-Chief for women.
The breakdowns among that 26 point upswing for McCain on the “understanding” question? Since July, the GOP nominee garnered an increase of 38 points among 35-44 year old women; more than 35 points apiece among married women and moms; and a rise among Republican women. Only 39% of female GOP voters viewed McCain as the more woman-friendly candidate in July compared to 83% today.
Overall, the Obama-Biden ticket was favored by women by two percentage points, with 47% to McCain’s 45%. Seven percent of respondents remain undecided. (The margin of error of the poll, conducted by pollsters Kellyanne Conway and Celinda Lake, was 4.4%.)
It’s important to keep in mind that the Lifetime numbers, collected 9/11-9/15, reflect the sentiments of voters when McCain and Palin were doing their first mega-rallies and when the news cycle was dominated by talk of “P.I.G.” instead of “A.I.G.” But the Alaska governor’s rate of fandom among married women (60%), rural women (69%), and white women (59%) could help to insulate McCain against one trouble spot shown by the poll results; fully 25% more respondents believed that Obama, not McCain, will help the middle class more.
The Palin pick also appears to be a galvanizing force among rural voters as a whole, according to another new poll – also out today – from the Center for Rural Strategies. Among respondents in the rural regions of thirteen battleground states, half said that Palin’s presence on the ticket has made them more likely to support McCain in November. But the poll’s results, which showed a 51-41 advantage for McCain, also underscore the deafening concern over the economy that dominates voters’ decision making. Fifty-one percent of the rural residents surveyed placed the economy and jobs at the top of the list, with other issues like energy (25%) and the war (21%) comparatively left in the dust.
The Rural Strategies poll was conducted last week, Sept. 16-18.
