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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



McCain vs. Obama: Setting expectations

Posted: Tuesday, September 23, 2008 9:21 AM by Mark Murray

The New York Times does its expectations-setting story for the debates, and it lowers the bar a bit for Obama. "Some of his chief strengths — his facility with words, his wry detachment, his reasoning skills, his youthful cool — have not always served him well and may pose significant vulnerabilities in the series of presidential debates that begins Friday, according to political analysts and a review of his earlier debate performances.”

”Mr. Obama has a tendency to overintellectualize and to lecture, befitting his training as a lawyer and law professor. He exudes disdain for the quips and sound bites that some deride as trivializing political debates but that have become a central part of scoring them. He tends to the earnest and humorless when audiences seem to crave passion and personality. He frequently rises above the mire of political combat when the battle calls for engagement."

The Times runs a similar story for McCain, and it seems to give the Republican the edge on Friday because of the subject matter: foreign policy. "He has used fairly consistent techniques during his roughly 30 debates on the national stage: he is an aggressive competitor who scolds his opponents, grins when he scores and is handy with the rhetorical shiv. Just ask Mitt Romney, whom Mr. McCain filleted on several occasions in debates during the primaries, perhaps most infuriatingly for Mr. Romney when Mr. McCain misleadingly asserted that Mr. Romney favored a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.”

“A review of several of Mr. McCain’s debates shows that he is most comfortable and authentic when the subject is foreign policy. And in a stroke of good fortune, foreign policy is the topic for Friday, the first of three 90-minute debates with Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee."

The Boston Globe’s Canellos breaks down the expectations game for the upcoming debates. "So as Barack Obama and John McCain prepare for their first debate, expect to hear many of their campaign surrogates lionizing the opposition, so as to set an impossibly high bar and leave viewers disappointed: McCain's team can be expected to cast Obama as a man of great rhetorical gifts; and Obama's can be expected to note that McCain has been immersed in the issues for more than two decades in the Senate.”

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For once they are lower the bar for Obama... that is terrific because in the primary and this race to the GE, he has always had to reach for that unattainable bar that you guys in the media keep moving up and up and up.  Obama just needs to be Obama, he will be seen as the authentic candidate he is, unlike McSoundbite!
There is NO WAY that the MSM will say Obama has won Friday's debate, regardless of his performance. The only really juicy story is one in which McCain outperforms Obama and the gap in the polls closes once again. So the MSM will make sure that this is what the narrative is. If pundits start talking about Obama winning the debate, then his lead in the polls will increase and the race won't be as exciting for the MSM.

Most of the media, in their personal lives, are probably Dems. But more than they are Democrats, they are self-serving opportunists. And what serves their interest the most right now is a close race, so you can bet that's going to affect everyone's interpretation of Friday's debate.
No matter who Senator Obama debates, the media ALWAYS says the other guy won. Apparently, in our sound bite era, thoughtful answers are frowned upon.

Go figure.

Sometimes a little THOUGHT is required folks. That's not a bad thing - try it in your own life.

Vote based on the issues instead of your preordained misconceptions this year.

You may be pleasantly surprised with the results.

If you continue to elect politicians who lie to your face with no regret, you will continue to get what you deserve - a bunch of empty promises from people skilled at gaming the system.

We deserve better - don't vote for Sentor Obama - vote for YOURSELF. Time to take OUR country back.

Obama/Biden '08/'12

P.S. For those who still don't get it, how much prosperity has trickled down to you over the past 7 1/2 years? The price of everything is up, unemployemnt is up, and wages are down. Do the math folks.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
How late can John be out away from the Nursing Home?
I watched that debate where McCain acused Romney of calling for a time table. I believe Wolf Blitzer was the moderator and Blitzer read word for word what Romney had said, and no way did Romney call for a time table. John S. McCain sat there looking America in the eye and continued the lie. John McCain has told so many lies that I can not trust him and it looks as though he picked a running mate that will not hesitate to lie. Palin is one of the biggest liars.
Obama's can be expected to note that McCain has been immersed in the issues for more than two decades in the Senate.”

Somehow, tho, Obama seems to forget to mention that his running mate has been in DC for just short of 4 decade.  You said it yourself, Obama.  The American people are not stupid!  

It would be cool if somebody set up a counter of how many times Obama says things like:  uh, ah, umh, etc etc. The man is abysmal without a teleprompter and prepared speech.
Hello!

It's not that Barack over-intellectualizes or lectures.  It's that he talks in circles & never answers ANYTHING.

Good old NY Times lowering expectations for their robot.

Barack is an empty suit!
It will b einteresting how McCain will get away with his lies when Obama is standing right there...IF I were Obama, I would also bring up the lies McCain has told and let him face them.  

Shaming Mccain and his lies should be what Obama does at this debate.  Nail McCain at every turn while articulating your positions Obama.  McCain knows how to smear people but he can't stand the truth being told about him...watch the tape on the view and see how his campaign reacted to NY times and others.
As someone who has followed this election every day and especially Obama, he has plenty of amunition for the debate on foreign policy - Just ask the question:
"Is the world better off today than before the Iraq war?"
"Is the world safer today than before Bush was in office?
Have we solved any of the conflicts with the Axis of Evil Countries?
Have we gained more enimies/countries since Bush took Office?
And are we liked and trusted more around the world now than before Bush took office?
Foreign Policy and McCain are fantasy.  The biggest challenges we have facing us is the Muslim world and McCain doesn't know who is who over there.  
Neither does he know the history of the tribes (Sunni, Shi'ite and others) of people there.  He is not ready to face the challenges we face in the Middle East.  
You can't group them all together and that is what McCain and this administration has done.  That's it's first mistake.

Then they take us to Iraq and the real target Afganistan hangs in the balance...I sure hope someone makes McCain explain this to us and not tell us about the surge.  

If there were no Iraq, we would not have over 4100 Service Members killed. McCain is responsible and I care less about the surge than the entire failed decision to go in.

So McCain sucks on foreign policy and the economy and anyone supporting him is beyond repair mentally.  
I love that everyone expects foreign policy to be McCain's advantage. He sees foreign relations only through the lens of the military, and has troubles recalling facts about even the most recent changes in the world. I posit that he is only an expert on out-dated foreign policy ideas.
This is garbage that McCain has the edge in foreign policy.

Senator Obama actually has a better, more knowledgeable view of the world.   He is SMARTER than McCain and will do BETTER than McCain -- hands down.

Senator Obama needs to shoot a few "zingers" at the sly, sarcastic McCain!


Rooting for OBAMA!   ALL THE WAY !!
Well, when you are a graduate from Harvard Law School, there are not many people on your level.  Especially, John McCain who graduated 894 out of 899 from the Naval Academy.  You figure it out! I want the smart guy for President, not 4 more years of the same.
It doesn't matter...it will come back to the economy....unless Bush, McCain and their neo cons can invade...oh, Pakistan, maybe Spain, Russia...or mastermind an terrorist attack....does anyone really believe they are above trying anything?
Sorry, my cynicism is peaking and I trust no one connected with this Administration...no one!
If McCain is going to stick by his sound bytes, Obama will destroy him.  It'll be like Kerry/Bush all over again.

All Bush did, over and over again, was say:  "Fight terror!  Defend freedom!  Freedom's on the march!"

NO MATTER THE QUESTION (even if it had nothing to do with terrorism), it was the same answer.

People saw through it, and the majority of people agreed that Bush got his butt handed to him.
Obama Is Best For America (Sent Tuesday, September 23, 2008 9:44 AM)


Maybe Latin America. Obama socialist policies are more suited for that region.
Political "debates" favor someone who spouts off simplistic talking points over someone who actually thinks about a question and provides a reasonable, measured answer.

The very qualities that will make Obama a better president also make him a less effective debater.

I wouldn't be surprised if Palin "beats" Biden as well. Its easy to be disciplined about sticking to the message, when all you know is the message, and you just memorized it yesterday.
I was pleased with Obama's debate performances during the primaries, but, then again, I'm a college-educated voter who understands three-syllable words. I am no longer shocked that the MSM belittles Obama for speaking in sentences that are more than five words long and that show some understanding of history. I fully expect the MSM to declare McCain the winner because of the anger he will surely show and all the pounding he will do on the table. Why anger and physicality are the measures of a future president, I will never know. And why the MSM get to declare a winner based on which candidate's words make a good soundbite, I'll never know either.
It's a myth that McCain is more knowledgable about foreign affairs. He didn't even know who he was talking about when questioned about the Prime Minister of Spain (he seemed to think he was talking about somebody in Latin America), he confuses the Sunnis and Shiites, he mangles the Czech Republic, confuses the borders of countries, and just generally lacks the vision and intellect of Obama. But of course, he was a POW, lest we forget.
Hillary whooped Obama in every one of the televised debates.

Anyone who saw Obama's performance during these debates (uh...well...um...ah...I ...ah..um)knows that debates are not his strength.

Hillary would eat McCain alive - just like she did with Obama!
Unless the news people want to close the polling gap again for drama's sake, I think Obama will do well. It's too bad American Idol America doesn't like long, thoughtful answers; it's been dumbed down so much, it likes quick, snarky little sound bites that are easiest for simple minds to digest. But I think Obama is smart enough to modify his style to fit Americans' simple-mindedness  and do well anyway.
It will be interesting to watch McCain. He has campaigned day in and day out including weekends, something he didn't do in the primaries. If he is tired, he will make mistakes. Confuse countries, borders, leaders names etc. It's a Friday night which, I think, puts him at a disadvantage. If his handlers haven't paced him this week, he could look doddering. Also, his shoot from the hip attitude may not appeal to voters who watch W shoot from that proverbial hip.
The "my friends" is really starting to grate on me.
It would be cool if somebody set up a counter of how many times Obama says things like:  uh, ah, umh, etc etc. The man is abysmal without a teleprompter and prepared speech.
mccain palin 08 (Sent Tuesday, September 23, 2008 9:34 AM)
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Then, let's count how many times John McCain utters the phrase, "My friends"! We can also count how many times he blinks. In my opinion, his blinker always goes off when he's lying.

Post your numbers here by Sat. Morning!
Maybe Latin America. Obama socialist policies are more suited for that region.
South of the Border (Sent Tuesday, September 23, 2008 10:01 AM)
------------------------------------------------------

I find it laughable, at this point, for ANY republican to speak of socialization! for the last 8 years, of which 6 included control of congress, the Bush administration has went on a deregulating "hey day", leaving us to deal with the piles of ashes we now call the economy. And now, the republican administration, the free-market, capitalistic, fiscally-conservative, small-government, republicans are SOCIALIZING the nations banking industry. Well, SOCIALIZING the DEBT anyway. The profits, of course, are kept private.

Sell it somewhere else, we're not buying this time!
I really think that Obama can win the debate.  He has to keep it simple.  KIS!!!  He needs to BEGIN EVERY ANSWER WITH A SHORT THESIS STATEMENT/SOUNDBITE!!!  Then, and only then, can he go into more detail.  McCain will be able to do this.  Obama needs to do better.  He has done it on the stump.  He failed to do it in his most recent interview.  He needs to be Less Professor, more Regualar Joe.  Also, he needs to show his sense of humor when appropriate.  Obama has a great wit and should use it.  
The problem with modern debates is that everything gets shortened to sound bites, zingers and quips.  The situation is that the world's (and US's) problems can't often be sumed up in only a few words or in 30 seconds.  I like a longer answer that shows how smart the person is.  McCain likes short, shoot from the hip, no real reflection answers at times; most times from what I remember of the debates and Saddleback Church thing.  

Al Gore was correct in his book, the Assault on Reason.  We are not a totally informed citizenry, and we need to be.  More of us need to be informed and vote.
It will b einteresting how McCain will get away with his lies when Obama is standing right there...IF I were Obama, I would also bring up the lies McCain has told and let him face them
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Then do you suppose it would be okay for McCain to point out Obama's lies on social security, on the born alive protection act, on his association with William Ayers, and his outrageous Rush Limbaugh ad?  
Everybody just look around and ask yourself are you doing better now then you were eight years ago then look around again and ask is your friend doing better then they were eight years ago?
I for one always liked Obama's debate style -- he doesn't easily fall into a trap another has set for him -- he steps outside it and rises above.

Having said that, I know most people seem to like the John McCain cocky-flyboy attitude in debates, or at least they did until current cowboy president screwed the country so royally.
A lot of you Obama freaks don't get it ! It doesn't matter if McCain is senile, stupid, warmongar or another Bush the ONLY thing that matters is.....

 HE IS NOT OBAMA !!!!!!!


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