First thoughts: A shift toward Obama

Posted: Monday, September 29, 2008 9:31 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** A shift towards Obama: As the slew of recent national and state polls suggest, our new map reflects a shift in Obama's direction. Four new states have been added to our Toss-up category: three red states (Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina) and one blue state (Pennsylvania). This gives Obama a 212-174 edge, after his more narrow 233-227 lead last week. What's interesting about these shifts is that while Obama is showing an improvement in fast-growing states (CO, FL, NV, NC, VA), he can't seem to put away the Northern tier states of slow-growing states (MI, PA, WI) or make progress in what some believe is still the all-important state of OH. BTW, how is it that, nationally, Obama's numbers are going up but he's struggling in big states like MI, PA and OH? Is this about Obama's inability to make the sale with older white voters? If he can change the electorates in these Southern and Western states, he can afford to lose two of those three industrial states, but it puts more pressure on him to win two of the following three: FL, NC and VA.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, WA (55 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (152 votes)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)

*** Hoosier toss-up: The most surprising move in our map is Indiana, a state that no one believed was a new battleground -- even when Obama's team was first laying out its 25-30 state strategy. Indiana, in fact, is probably the surprise of the cycle. It's a state that probably is somewhere BETWEEN Lean McCain and Toss-up, but because the state's poll numbers look more like a Toss-up state than a Lean McCain state, we're tipping it into the Toss-up category for now, especially since the RNC has decided to ad the state to its TV buy list.

*** Could election night end at midnight: With the Toss-up list expanding at this point in the campaign, it gives the opportunity for either candidate to end up winning somewhat comfortably in the Electoral College. In the last two elections, the candidates basically split the final Toss-up states in half. Two weeks ago, we appeared to be on a similar trajectory. Today, that doesn't seem to be the case. The one thing the public may have learned about the candidates is that the two have VERY divergent worldviews. There's a bright line between these two candidates; it's not a case where both are trying to blur their views.

*** Bill is back … back again … Bill is back … tell a friend:

The 42nd president did it again: He's put into doubt how much he really supports Obama. His non-response about whether Obama -- like McCain -- was a "great man" made some wonder if Meet The Press was running the Darrell Hammond SNL parody yesterday rather than the actual Bill Clinton. Seriously, watch Hammond and Clinton side-by-side on the issue of Obama, you can't make it up.

*** Losing the mo’: At the end of August, it appeared McCain had the momentum in the presidential race. And a month later? Well, just look at today’s rough day for McCain in the op-ed pages. Left-leaning EJ Dionne declares that the Arizona senator lost the month of September; Paul Krugman (normally left-leaning but hardly an Obama fan) writes that McCain “scares me” if the next president has to answer a 3:00 am phone call on the economy; Fareed Zakaria bluntly says that Palin isn’t qualified to be VP; and even McCain friend Bill Kristol admits that McCain “is on course to lose the presidential election.” So how does McCain get his groove back? Whenever the pressure's been on McCain to change the trajectory of the race, he's figured out a way -- so get ready for a wild week. We're guessing lots of stuff is going to get thrown on the wall to see what sticks. Kristol, perhaps the most listened to of the McCain backseat drivers, even suggests (among other things) playing the Jeremiah Wright card.

*** Do we have a winner? On Friday night, it wasn't clear who won the debate. For as many people who thought McCain won, there was a smart analyst who picked Obama. But three days later, it's McCain -- as we mention above -- who’s dealing with how-does-he-turn-things-around? stories, not Obama. And it's Obama who is receiving a poll bump. We're not fans of insta-debate polls, nor weekend tracking polls. But every single one of them shows movement in Obama’s direction. Could it be that voters were judging Friday night's debate in the is-he-ready? prism? It's the most logical explanation for the Obama bump, even when arguably, on a point-by-point scoring system, McCain may have gotten the best of Obama on debate night.

*** It's Palin's week, we're just lucky to cover it: Palin's political future is on the line this week. This isn't about Palin performing well enough at the debate to stop the conservative chattering class from wringing its hands; this is about Palin's future national prospects period. Three weeks ago, she was being called the next Reagan. Now the campaign would be satisfied if she could at least be compared favorably to Quayle. But those are "treading water' expectations.

Video: With Obama and McCain having tussled over economic and foreign policy in their first debate, Sarah Palin now faces scrutiny for her grasp of the same issues in her upcoming forum with Joe Biden. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

If she's got true ambition to be the future leader of the Republican Party, she's got to pull out of this perception tailspin and fast. Perhaps it is getting close to being too late: With SNL, Tina Fey, and now the conservative elites, the concrete is drying around Palin's feet. The good news for her is that a record number of people apparently want to watch her debate Joe Biden. She'll have a good chunk of folks watching the debate who are downright rooting for her to not to screw up. A poor performance at the debate and not only will Palin start becoming a true liability for the McCain campaign, she'll damage her ability to transition into a national leader.

*** Four out of five experts agree…: Whatever happens Thursday, you'll know it's a good night for her if a viewer can easily ascertain an issue Palin appears to be an expert on. The campaign wants her to be the energy person, but they've actually done little to reinforce her credentials. She hasn't spent time at key energy symbols (oil rigs, nuclear plants etc.), nor has she spent time with energy reporters. Today is only a taste of the Palin backseat driving the campaign is going to be dealing with in the run-up to Thursday.

*** On the trail: McCain and Palin hold a rally in Columbus, OH. Obama campaigns in Denver, CO. And Biden is down in Wilmington, DE.

Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 3 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 8 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 16 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 36 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 113 days

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Comments

Obama for sure in that he was calm and collected during the past 2 weeks, while we saw the sunt and game played by would be Bush 44. We saw the quality of commander we need and seek in Obama.

Disliking Bush 44 (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 10:18 AM)

Tonight I will say a little prayer that things are starting to shift Obama's way. We cannot afford a McCain/Palin ticket. It scares me to think that either one of them could be running the country. McCain for all his foreign policy experience sounds just like George Bush, and his economic ability is null. During the debate I thought Obama sounded experienced, intelligent, and introspective, whereas McCain could only talk about Iraq and victory there.

Kate, Saratoga Springs, New York (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 10:18 AM)

The choice should become vry clear as to whom we need to have in the white house starting next year. As a life-long republican and someone who has supported George Bush, I can no longer support the Repulican party. Obama gives the American people the much needed change that we deserve.

John McCain has proven that he does not have the temperment to be our leader and he has put his own personal ego ahead of the American people. His words of country first are a total joke. His selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate is becoming more apparent every day as nothing more than a desperate effort to woo support for a failing campaign. I feel bad for her, but her ego is only drawfed by McCain's.

I once had a lot of respect for McCain, but have lost all respect for him period. He has allowed his personal ambition to take charge, and the anger that showed on his face during the debate, and the lack of respect for Obama, goes to show why he would be very ineffective in dealing with world leaders. If anyone should be called an elietest it would be the person who has eight houses and thirteen cars and more money then he can count. How could a person of this statue have any idea how the common person lives and suffers. McCain is so far over the rest of us that he has forgotten we exist.

OBAMA IS OUR BEST CHOICE TO CHANGE THIS COUNTRY TOWARDS THE CORRECT DIRECTION !!

Bruce Londeree, Staunton, VA (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 10:18 AM)

Hoosiers aren't completely stupid... GOP Takes things for granted entirely too often...

Obama sees and understands how hard hit we've been the past 8 years and it is very obvious we want change that won't happen with a senator that needs to be retired and a VP candidate that is worse than current VP.

Hope it doesn't affect Mitch Daniel's re-election he's fixed a lot for our state but we can't handle 1 second let alone 4 more years of Failed GOP Policies in our state.

Jason - Indy (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 10:18 AM)

Joe Biden is going to eat Palin alive -- watch and see.

Didi Paano (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:10 AM)

What the polls won't tell you!

Here is the reason Obama will lose that no one wants to admit: White voters will not vote for a BLACK LIBERAL!I know, I am now a racist for saying this. But before you pass judgment, try answering the following questions honestly:
1. Do you feel uncomfortable when you travel through black urban areas?
2. Do you even travel through black urban areas?
3. Do you feel comfortable when you are surrounded by a group of black teenagers?
4. Are you OK with your daughter or son dating a black person?
5. Do you laugh at stereotypical black jokes?
6. Have you ever even muttered the N-word even under your breath?
7. Would you ever admit that you might be a bit racist to a pollster?
8. Do you really believe Hispanics will embrace a black candidate?
9. Do you cringe when you hear a black athlete or performer speak the English language?

These are just a few questions that need to be answered. For the record, here are my answers:
1. I don't feel uncomfortable traveling through black urban areas.
2. I have worked through-out my career in some of the "worst" areas in LA and Chicago.
3. I am not uncomfortable in a group of black teenagers. I did not even have a white friend until I went to college.
4. I think I might be uncomfortable with my daughters dating black men. Have some time before that happens, but would like my daughters to date within my culture.
5. I still laugh at non-PC jokes.
6. Have used the N-word many times. Both with my black friends in normal conversation, and as a slur when I got mad.
7. I would never admit to a pollster that I am racist because I don't think I am. My answers might contradict that.
8. My experience with Hispanics is that there is no real love for blacks. This blanket statement is just my opinion.
9. Yes it aggravates me when Ebonics is spoken. I believe it just makes the person look stupid. This is true of white people also.

With that said, I am a conservative because of the issues. I would have no problem voting for Michael Steele!

MI, Chicago, IL (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:10 AM)

The latest parody on Plain was telling, in my mind. Tina Fey simply repeated Palin's words when Palin responded that the $700 billion "was about helathcare" and so on. I felt sorry for her, actually.

Wyo (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:10 AM)

Chuck, regarding Bill Clinton's reaction to the question if Obama is a great man, do you think he's a great man Chuck? What has he done to make him great? He may one day turn out to do many big things and help many people and one day become a great man. But for now, what has he done to make him a great man? A great man, Churchill and Roosevelt had to win WW II to earn that. Gandhi had to peacefully free the Indians from British rule, Martin Luther King had a lifetime of work and died for racial equality. Reagan had to start an economic revolution and win the cold war without firing a shot. Ted Kennedy had a lifetime of work and commitment to pass legislation to protect the weak among us to earn being called "a great man". It is arguable that John McCain, with his 5 years in prison in a foreign land and his years of service (McCain- Feingold, normalized relations with Vietnam,Gang of 14, etc ) has earned the right to be called a great man. But Barack Obama???? WHAT HAS HE DONE TO EARN IT??? Chuck, are you kidding me?? When has "great" become so cheap???

Dr. Duque, Chicago (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:11 AM)

Question: with NC becoming toss up to lean Obama has any polling been done in South Carolina? I hear that the democratic registration is through the roof. Also, what about the registration numbers in Pa, Va, OH, Indiana, NC, and Nevada? In Pa specifically, what are the new voter registration numbers in the Southwest part of the state around Pittsburg?

Casey, Hoboken, NJ (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:12 AM)

The wheels are coming off on the McCain campaign because he abondoned his true maverick stances to satisfy the base. The base is not going to be enogh this election cycle. Look at the independents reaction to the debate...almost 2 to 1 for Obama. It's over.

Rolando, Chicago, IL (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:12 AM)

I find it interesting that the current "buzz" around Thursday's VP debate is focused on Joe Biden monitoring his demeanor so as not to appear condesceding or sexist toward Gov. Palin when, in fact, her own party seems to be undermining her abilities by begging for and getting a changed format to placate her "inexperience" as a debater. Does the BS never stop with this campaign?

Sen. Obama is called inexperienced by the McCain-Palin camp all day every day and yet he got no special privileges going toe-to-toe with the "war hero" but the same doesn't apply for someone who, if her party is choosen to lead this country for another 4 years, could be the very person with their finger on the 3:00 a.m. button? The very way in which Gov. Palin has been presented and carefully puppeted/flaunted like a novelty to the people and media is sexism at its finest but Biden and Obama need to watch what they say and do in reference to her yet its a free for all when their character as witnessed gentlemen is put into question? Give me a break. Palin deserves no preferential treatment whatsoever and if she wants to run the big house she needs to put the lipstick away and step up to the plate like a player not a cheerleader. If McCain would stop acting like her sugar daddy and treat her with the respect he demands others give her than lead by example.

Ya Don't Say? (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:12 AM)

McCain appears to have bought into the philosophy that there is no such thing as "bad" publicity - anything he can do to get even one extra column-inch of space in the media is fine with him. After all, whether it's his pick for VP or his "suspending" his campaign or running out on an appearance on David Letterman's show and lying about the reason, it focuses the media on him rather than Obama. There are rumors that his next "stunt" will be the pre-election wedding of Palin's daughter, but that to me is a real stretch as the security measures alone will end up taking more than the five weeks left until the election. But as Senator McCain has proven this year, we shouldn't discount anything as "too bizarre" as his campaign to absurdity continues.

Paul Matlin, Baltimore, MD (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:12 AM)

we should just save the money of running an election and just anoint obama pres. You at msnbc are in the pocket of obama and you guys speak for all of us lesser idiots

rich (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:13 AM)

Palin's expertise is that she is a former beauty queen and has all the qualifications for such a position. The deer-in-the-headlights look she wears most of the time now comes from her realization that she is in w-a-a-a-y over her coyly coifed head. And the fact that John McCain could look straight into the camera and state that she is ready to assume the presidency of the United States if necessary marks him as a man who would do anything, anything, to win this election, including pawning his so-called honor.

S.P. Wiliams, Lakewood, CO (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:14 AM)

Its all Obama................GO Obama

Kay Pleasant Plain,Ohio (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:14 AM)

I predict that the McCain campaign will use every smear and fear tactic in the book to persuade voters not vote for Obama, rather than campaign on the issues because they know that is not a winner for them.

As for Palin, if she does poorly in the debate, McCain can kiss his chances of being President goodbye. The American people are smart enough to know that if they had to choose between Biden or Palin becoming President in case Obama or McCain became incapacitated, they will choose Biden.

For all of his gaffes, Biden knows more about the world, domestic policy and law then Palin does and he will not make irrational decisions based on ideology but what is best for the country.

Michael7 (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:14 AM)

bill clinton's lack of openly saying that obama is a great person and saying openly on meet the press that mccain is a great person is because mccain and his wife and the bushes especially old man bush and his wife barbara are huge financial or monetary supporters of clinton's global initiative. money talks and everything else walks. clinton has always been about money sex and power and he will never change as long as he is on this earth.

arsben jennings, fort wayne, indiana (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:14 AM)

Although didn't watch the debate, I feel McCain won,( obama is just too stupid to win anything ) as he ( McCain )will the election. The bump in polls can be written off as HMMMMMMMMMMM, but this too shall pass quickly !

Fl Voter (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:15 AM)

arsben jennings, fort wayne, indiana (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:15 AM)

" The good news for her is that a record number of people apparently want to watch her debate Joe Biden."

Yeah, and there were also hundreds of thousands of Romans who wanted to see unarmed men fight gladiators in the Colliseum thousands of years ago. The same type of people who watch a car race hoping to see a crash. If you like to watch shows like "Seconds from Disaster", tune in to the VP debate.

Bill Fields (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:38 PM)

We must give credit to George Bush's consistancy he maintains. He has bankrupted all businesses he has entered into and now taken this country's economy along with his resume of failures. I can not see how any hardworking middle class person could vote for McCain who follows Bush's course of disaster. I would rather see someone make a movie on McCain's heroism which would hopefully satisfy his ego and keep him away from defeating the lives of hard working people.

Char Quakertown, PA (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:38 PM)

McCain, A great man? I don't think so, sure he was POW, but that was against his will. His airplane was shot down; maybe he was just a bad pilot. You know the Navy records show he was in 5 aircraft when they were damaged. OK, one was on the deck of a carrier, another pilot fired a rocket and damaged several aircraft. But the other 3 he crashed, plus the one that was shot down. If he would have volunteered to be a POW, so someone else could have come home. Then of course he would have been a Hero. I think the World is getting the word victim confused with hero.
Hero? He divorced his first wife after she became disfigured in an accident, so he could marry a rich, politically connected woman. He was disciplined for his involvement in the Keating 5 Savings and Loan scandal. Hero? Even after the S&L debacle he went on to push for financial deregulation. Have you read the papers lately and seen what a mess he has put us in? McCain for President? I don't think so; he should be ridden out of town on a rail. You want change in Washington? Surly you don't elect a Washington insider, McCain is the ultimate insider. McCain’s service in Washington was to serve John McCain. Compare Joe Biden and John McCain, after about the same time in Washington, Biden is worth $250,000 and McCain is worth $10 million.

Denis Logan, Palm Coast, Florida (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:50 PM)

"With that said, I am a conservative because of the issues. I would have no problem voting for Michael Steele! "

MI, Chicago, IL (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 11:10 AM)

So, you can put aside racial "considerations" and vote on issues, but all those other "white" people can't?

you lost me, Chicago, IL (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:50 PM)

Come on MSN, what a crock this list is.
Why don't you write what Obama really stands for, his "Robin Hood" economics, take from the rich and give to the poor, this btw, is the same failed plan Carter tried. Let us really put the blame for this mess on Wall Street, where is belongs, Clinton and the Democrats, remember is was during that time that Clinton pushed the Fannie Mae loans,those same loans that are not being paid back.
As for NC being a toss up, not from the local polls taken last weekend, Mc Cain is ahead.
How about some truth for once MSN and Obama.

Not fooled, Fayetteville NC (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:51 PM)

This is why McCain will win: rank and file white America will not vote for a black candidate. Period. When polled they say they "might" vote for Obama or that they are "undecided", while deep in their heart they are saying, "I'd never vote for a nigger!" This is what is known as the "Bradley Effect": named for Tom Bradley, a black who ran for mayor of Los Angeles and was leading by 10 points the day BEFORE the election then lost by 7. Everyone is constrained by the "Political Correctness" mandate of not appearing racist; but deep down in their souls they say otherwise. Do you really believe that North Carolina is "up-for-grabs" or in play? Missouri in play? Indiana, the state that during the 1920's had the largest number of Ku Klux Klan members is in play? Not a chance!

Politically Incorrect, Oswego, New York (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:53 PM)

To the FL voter. For you to say that Obama is too stupid to win anything, well, I do believe he beat Hillary. And as far as McCain, personally, I have nothing against him, I just don't think he is the right perosn for the job. Palin "definitely" isn't a good choice for the VP spot. Just look at the latest interviews she has given. That aside, it's those who voted Bush into office is partly why we are in this mess. No one person can take blame for the whole economic turmoil we are in, but he has contributed. People are struggling and this is the time for people to come together and make sure we get the right person in office. If not, we will become a more hated country if McCain is elected. He will not bring us together with the rest of the world.

Tim Bradley, austell, Georgia (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:53 PM)

it is very interesting that we are worried about Palin's experience when she is running for vice president ..... however we have a man who is a very unknown and it is ok then thing we are forgetting however is he is running for PRESIDENT! The issue that is frightening is to see people following like sheep and not looking into the real facts of his inexperience or even worse yet his walfling on issues ... I think Obama will say or do what ever it takes to get elected .... makes me wonder what is his real motivation?

Jean Johnson Denver, CO (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:55 PM)

Why is it that the guys who are leaning to the right are sooooo angry? Is it that they do not believe what their own predictions. As for Bill he is still not pleased with the result of the nominations but I am sure when the time is right he will rally to the cause "To bring back America". I don't care who gets credit for fixing the problem, the important thing is that it is done. I am a registered Dem but always vote the issues, I am American first.

Al Ledge, Miramar, Fl (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:55 PM)

I'm a 44 year old white man from AZ who was raised as a Catholic Republican by parents that are good people, but they are racists. I know there are a ton of other people just like them out there. And that's why this election is close. I'm voting for Obama and I know my vote will be cancelled out by my father. That reminds me: can we abolish the retarded electoral college? I want my vote to count. I love living in AZ, but it's a backasswards state that's got millions of senior citizens just like McCain along with their ultra conservative offspring. As long as I live here, I don't have a vote and that's not right.

Obama is so much smarter than McCain that there's no other explanation for this not being a blowout. McCain is a war monger who's stuck in the past. Palin has no business being in this race. If they wouldn't have changed the debate format for Thursday, I had told my wife that I thought Biden was going to make her cry. She still might- he's going to make her look like the PTA hockey Mom that she is.

Tom in Phoenix (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

Joe Biden is going to eat Palin alive, heck, I want to eat Palin alive.

Steve Clement (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

I love how the media always calls it for the left. Shocking. I am just one member of the giant silent majority that isn't covered by the left-media. I think they are the biggest smearers of all, don't you? McCain is the best option by far, and so much more knowledgable on not just the current situations, but the history behind them. This was very clear in the debates.

Jessica, Summerville, SC (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

People open your eys, we need help now , not in 2030 like Sen.McCain pretend, I got laid off on May, now I can't paid my morgage , And I dont care if it is white or black the nex president , We need somebady smart to do something for as NOW, and SEN. McCain it's the mos chip men on ""VETERANS"" case so if HE wasn't able for them how can he help 300... milion and more American people .

anna, fort meyrs FL (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

Democrats> Please open your eyes to obammie. He has NO experience in anything except taking money from people, you think your taxes are high now, vote for obammie and watch them soar over the moon, and I am a democrat, so don't blame the republications for what i say, I just see obammie for what he is, He will promise you ANYTHING to get elected, and be-the first black president, HE HAS NO EXPERIENCE, NOT EVEN IN THE SENATE.Either vote rep, ind, or just stay home, but NO OBAMMIE

annalouise seattle wa (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

I find it funny that everyone speaks how little of experience Palin has, however I do not think a Senator that has only been there for one term is in any way qualified to run our country. I would rather have a Commander and Chief that has had years of expericence and a Vice President that is newer to Washington than the opposite, which is what we would get if Obama takes office. I can not respect a man that wants to be our president who has no respect for our country and the values on which is was founded.

AS, Okc, OK (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

"Although (sic) didn't watch the debate, I feel McCain won,".

Spoken like a true Ameican. Didn't even watch the debate but called the winner. Maybe you should consider a job in Vegas...firmly planted in front of the Keno boards.

Foxhunter, Atlanta (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:56 PM)

Fl voter,

Judging by your comment and every stupid thing about it, I'm glad to infer you're too young to vote. How do you 'feel' that McCain won without even watching the debate? Silly boy.

Anna, San Diego (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:57 PM)

Neither candidate speaks the truth. Obama refuses to speak of how he will pay for his 800 Billion in new social programs. He says he will give 95% of people a tax cut, but never talks about the fact that approximately 100 million people receive back at least as much as they paid in due to earned income tax credits, head of household tax credits, and child tax credits. Under his tax plan the number of Americans getting back more than they paid in would be at the highest levels ever. Giant welfare plan. But we would be taking that from "the rich" so it would be o.k. Never mind by his very definition 98% of employers would be defined as "rich". And McCain can't bring himself to admit that he shares ample responsibility for the financial crisis we face. Maybe we should make certain positions within large corporations subject to absolutely no protection of private assets. This would give the people that run these companies pause to make decisions that could ruin our very country.

J French Mesa, AZ (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:59 PM)

When I hear " Americans are clinging to their guns and religion" to an group of wealthy San Franciscians and "For the FIRST time in my life, I am proud of America and America is a down right mean country" it scares me. Obama is an empty suit and only knows what Ivory league liberals have been telling him all his life. Biden is just an idiot. God help us all if Obama wins!

Joe Ingle, Corpus Christi, Tx (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:59 PM)

Be reminded than many voting in this election will be young adults than have no prejudice for Black Americans and were born after the Vietnam War. This will be the first election not decided by “Older White Americans,” but by “New American,” …youth and colored people

Salt Lake City, UT (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:59 PM)

Obama fiddles while Main Street burns. Where is his so called leadership as Dems in the House bailed out on the Bailout? He is supposed to be a US Senator, but he told his party, call me. At least McCain is in Washington, doing his job, senator. Obama looks like a rat deserting a sinking Dem ship.

ChicagoAl (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 2:59 PM)

I don't really understand this concept of putting states 'away'. The only time you really close out a close swing state is on election state. Polling averages have Obama ourperforming Kerry and Gore in PA, WI, MI and OH (tho still behind there) and doing pretty much the same in MN. Yet the media like to propogate the story that Obama cannot 'close the deal' with white voters or old voters or whoever.

I agree your basic argument that demographics have made the south and south west more fruitful battlegrounds (and I agree that OH does seem stubbornly red) but it is a myth that Obama is not making the sale in the rustbelt. The all important numbers prove that he is doing just fine.

Chris, New York, NY (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:00 PM)

How is that Senator Joe Biden can say that in 1929 Presidenr Roosevelt came on TV to talk to the Americam people about the Wall STreet crash that led to ther great depression? In 1929 there was a crash, but there was no TV and Roosevelt was NOT the president. If Palin made these comments the media would go nuts. Also great job by Senator Dodd who referred to the Federal Reserve Chaiman Ben Bernake as Senator and/or General several times during their hearings last week. Great job by Barney Frank in the House and Senator Dodd in the senate overlooking the two Congressional banking Committees the past two years. Where is the media on this? NOWHERE

Dan Washingtonville NY (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:00 PM)

I must say that this election is about finding the best person ( and a 2nd best lets say for the Veep spot)for the Presidency of the United States of America. Personally, I wholely, unequivicably, believe that person is Barack Obama (with Joe Biden). I am not trying to make a case for race, I am not playing faves - and YES, I want a woman to be VP or Pres, but the right one...not just anyone. Correct, we need leadership, intelligence, and basically a fresh start with fresh ideas to revamp our faith, our status, and our ecomony in this country ( Plus a literal laundry list of huge social issues). Come on America - put your bias aside, put your excuses away, and answer yourselves the question of who can realistically pull off what this country REALLY needs right now. You know in your hearts it's Obama...I mean...seriously.....

Eastern Oregon (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:01 PM)

I wonder where their getting their info? Iowa is and has been "double digits" in Obamas favor!!! Obama will win and I pity him, as he's inheriting a terrible mess and will likely be unable to accomplish little of his/Democratic agenda due to it. Instead of all Americans getting behind him and working to make America better and to truly assume a global leadership role, he will be plagued by inuendo and sabatoge just like Bill Clinton. The big monied interests and Neo-conservatives just can't stand to have a Democrat in charge. Welfare and assistance is only good if in the favor of Corporate Capitalists. I predict as many a well credentialed before me; American corporate capatalism is slowly dying. So the very rich would be well advised to enjoy it while they can and maybe catch-up survival skills, they will need it!

john ballard des moines, ia (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:01 PM)

I would think the majority of people are not going to tune in on Thursday to watch Palin succeed. I think most people, like myself, are going to watch because we cant wait to see her fail even more than she already has!

Michele, Wallingford Connecticut (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:02 PM)

The debate clearly pointed out not who is the better candidate, but rather the clear difference: Sen. Obama represents a move to the future and away from the 'Decider' posture of the past seven and a half years. Sen. Obama gives htoughful, reasoned answers, whether or not you believe they will provide the proper solution is open to debate.

Despite his pronouncements, a vote for Sen. McCain will keep things as they are. So to once again ask the great 'Gipper's' question: Are you better off today than four years ago?

If that is the deciding factor be honest with yourself. If another issue floats your boat, go for it. Just please use accurate information to make your choice.

Chris Stevens, Peoria, Illinois (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:02 PM)

Just remember the Dems had four years to do something, they did nothing. I am Democrat and voted to help them get in. Obama is not the anwser. He was AWOL on the talks, he is AWOL from everything I guess I will be a Republicancat this year, because I am going McCain/Palin. We deserve better than Obama 08, No Obama09 No obama09

Virginia Beach, va (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:02 PM)

Well let's see how many of you think Bill Clinton is a great man. The fact that he says he will do everything posible to help Obama, and then make it obvious he doesn't really support him saya a lot for Clinton's already tarnished reputation. For those of you out there that will not vote for Obama because he is black, just remember:
It matters not the color of your skin,
It matters, whats within.
I'm a 69 year old white woman born and raised south voting Obama. Is the fact that McCain hasn't ask for any earmaks for his home state part of the reason ARIZONA is almost 1 billion in debt? If you want help the people of your own state, who will you help?

Linda (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:03 PM)

I don't know why we even have to be subjected to the socialist ultra liberal media's polls when they are far from the truth. I can poll 1000 people right now that will say they will vote for a ham sandwich if I ask them to. Polls mean nothing. Obama is as phony as a three dollar bill made of plastic. McCain the hero for president.

paul providence (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:04 PM)

WOW! MSNBC, your not biased at all are you???

Pittsburgh PA (Sent Monday, September 29, 2008 3:45 PM)

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