October 2008 - Posts
From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
Maybe not.
Insiders in Georgia are convinced that there’s a very real possibility that neither Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss nor Democrat Jim Martin will have the 50 percent plus one that is needed under Georgia law to determine a winner.
A third candidate, Libertarian lawyer/accountant Allen Buckley has made a strong showing in at least one of the televised debates, but seems unlikely to get more than 10 percent.
If no candidate wins outright next Tuesday, the top two vote getters would go to a Dec. 2 runoff.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain may have slightly irked some Ohio voters who are fans of the Mighty Tornadoes in strongly Republican Tuscawaras County.
Appearing in the shadow of Woody Hayes Field, the GOP nominee stepped into the middle of a local high school football rivalry between the New Philadelphia Quakers and the Dover Mighty Tornadoes, wishing the Quakers "good luck" in their game against Dover tomorrow.
Earlier this month, McCain opted not to wade into a World Series match up between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays saying, "Now, I'm not dumb enough to get mixed up in a World Series between swing states." But apparently he had no qualms getting mixed up a bit in a game between Ohio's "twin cities."
While the Quaker fans in attendance loved McCain's support, they were slightly less happy about his confusion of their town with a big city by a similar name.
"I want to say to you I believe we have seen the kind of momentum and enthusiasm that is here in North Philadelphia today that I think is going to make," McCain said, using the wrong name for the second time at the top of his remarks. "In NEW Philadelphia. North Philadelphia's part of a big city. New Philadelphia is the heartland of America."
(Of course, McCain isn't the only one who has flubbed a city's name on the campaign trail. Obama has done it plenty of times.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
With just four days to go until America elects the next president, Obama returned to the state that launched his once unlikely bid for the White House.
In his speech here, he also hailed the John McCain of the 2000 elections and suggested his rival had modified his principles to try to win this time around.
Several polls show the Democratic nominee with a double-digit lead over McCain in the Hawkeye State, where his big win in the January caucus helped set him on the course to win the nomination. His last visit to this city was May 20. Today, as he did then, Obama thanked his supporters -- saying he would “always be grateful” to the people of Iowa -- and told them they started a movement that has changed the political landscape.
“We began in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Our first stop was Cedar Rapids, then we came to Des Moines and then we went to Waterloo. It was cold at every stop. It was 7, 8 degrees then,” he said as the crowd basked in the sun of a 70-degree day here."
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo President Reagan , told MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell today that the pick of Palin has undermined John McCain's credibility.
Duberstein joins a list of prominent Republicans to criticize McCain's running mate pick -- including former Secretaries of State Colin Powell, who endorsed Barack Obama , and Lawrence Eagleburger, who is a McCain supporter.
It was later reported that Duberstein will vote for Obama.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Ben Weltman Does it get any nastier than North Carolina politics? The day after Liddy Dole was up with Godless part 1, she's up with a second that the campaign says "is just a response ad to Hagan's response ad."
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain campaign has released what appears to be its closing TV ad. It emphasizes his service to his country and his dedication to "a cause greater than my own."
The ad ends, "Don't hope for a stronger America. Vote for me."
Script: JOHN MCCAIN: I've served my country since I was 17 years old.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray McCain campaign claims to be "dead even" in Iowa.
"He has similar polling," Campaign Manager Rick Davis said of Obama during a conference call with reporters. "He's headed back there."
Obama held an event today in Des Moines and will take his daughters trick-or-treating in Chicago tonight. Iowa borders Obama's home state of Illinois. Obama also skipped an event in the state when he left the trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii.
A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted Oct. 22-23, showed Obama up 51%-40% in Iowa. A Marist College poll, conducted in the same period, showed Obama up 52%-42%. Research 2000, conducted Oct. 19-22, showed Obama up 54%-39%. There have been no reliable polls in the past week.
Davis and political director Mike Duhaime (formerly Giuliani's campaign manager) urged reporters to not underestimate their ground game. They cited the millions of dollars the Republican National Committee has poured in. Davis called it "historic" and said it has "exceeded any campaign ever." Davis said the RNC-McCain campaign have spent about $325 million. Duhaime said the RNC has 1.1 million volunteers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
NEWARK, Del. --
Biden returned to his home state to kick off the stretch run to Election Day, telling fellow Blue Hens on the campus of the University of Delaware that
Obama “will be the president this moment demands.”
Biden, who also faces re-election here, compared his message today as vice presidential nominee to the one he brought to his alm mater during his first campaign in 1972, when he said that the problem facing the nation “has not been the failure of the people to meet the challenges before them, but rather it’s been a failure of both the political parties to place the challenges honestly and squarely before the American people.”
“I come today with greater confidence and passion about the ability of this country to change and make things better,” he said. “I believe this country is ready to make the sacrifices necessary and to embrace the change we need to restore the hope of our people, and once again, once again become the beacon of light for the entire world. That’s our responsibility, that’s our possibilities, that’s what we must do.”
The speech was full of memories from Biden’s time as a student, when he said some of the nation’s most transformative events in American history occurred, leading up to his graduation in 1965. He also noted the curiosity that top officials from both campaigns, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe and McCain chief Steve Schmidt , attended the school. Neither graduated.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann Simply ghoulish...
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
LATROBE, Pa. --
Palin appealed to “Casey Democrats” in Pennsylvania today, but the strongest appeal came from a local legend, former NFL football coach Mike Ditka.
“When you look at the next eight years in this country, there's gonna be some tough times, gang,” Ditka said at an airport hangar rally. “We talk about change. Change from what, to what, and how? How you gonna do anything? Don't talk about what you're gonna do, prove you can do something!”
Ditka -- who grew up in nearby Aliquippa and played for Pitt -- cited the late John F. Kennedy , saying the country had swayed from the ideals of not asking what the country can do for you, but what you can do for the country.
“This is the land of opportunity; it's not a land of handouts,” the coach said. “If you're willing to work, you can find a job.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama manager David Plouffe announced that the campaign was going with ads in McCain's home state of Arizona, as well as in the red states of Georgia and North Dakota.
The ad that will air in Arizona is the campaign's positive closing ad , while the one that will run in Georgia and North Dakota tie McCain to President Bush on economic policy.
Plouffe said that these three states were enough in the "realm of possibility" that the campaign wanted to put an "extra effort" in them in the final days. "We think things have tightened up in Arizona," he said. "As I mentioned, we are running a positive ad there. It is Sen. McCain's home state; we are cognizant of that. But we think a positive ad there can help make the case."
Plouffe added, "If someone else had been the Republican nominee, I think Arizona would be a core battleground, like its western neighbors. Obviously, it is Sen. McCain's home sate, so he is going to over perform there a little bit."
Also on the call, Plouffe said the Obama campaign was looking strong in the state of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia. And he said that they saw paths to victory in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio.
What's more, Plouffe said the campaign is pleased with the early vote numbers they are seeing in several states, particularly in North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.
From Chucky , Mark Boo -ray, Count Montanaro, and Black Cat Dann Approaching the witching hour: We now have a good idea of where the two campaigns will spend their last four days until Election Day. Today, Obama campaigns in Iowa and Indiana, and in between the events he heads home to Chicago to spend part of Halloween with his daughters. On Saturday, he travels to Nevada (Henderson), Colorado (Pueblo), and Missouri (Springfield). On Sunday, it’s an entire day in Ohio (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati). And on Monday, per the New York Times , Obama hits Florida (Jacksonville), North Carolina, and Virginia (Manassas). As for McCain, he spends his entire Friday in Ohio; campaigns in Virginia and Pennsylvania on Saturday; then he’s reportedly hitting New Hampshire; and on Monday, he’s supposed to barnstorm through six states (including western ones like Nevada), with a final stop in -- get this -- Arizona .
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what the presidential candidates will be doing in their last few days of campaigning — and why. ***
Is McCain Michael Myers or Jason -- you just can’t get rid of him? We’ve heard plenty of rhetoric that McCain is closing in on Obama’s poll lead. But is that really happening? One poll definitely moved: In
Fox’s survey , Obama’s lead is now just three points, down from nine last week (yet
some have noted that the poll’s weighting was changed). But other polls show a pretty static race.
Gallup’s registered-voter model has Obama up eight points, after it was nine the day before; the
Washington Post/ABC tracking poll is unchanged, 52%-44%; and
Hotline/Diageo has the race at 48%-42%, down one point from the day before. Oh, and then there is the brand-new
New York Times/CBS poll , which has Obama ahead by 11 points, 51%-40%, essentially unchanged from its last poll that showed Obama with a 13-point lead. The good news for both campaigns: There are enough state polls out there -- including some by some questionable pollsters -- with enough diverse results that both campaigns can latch on to something that makes them feel better.
*** Burying the competition :Times reported, that total easily surpassed the audience for the final game of the World Series and last season’s finale of American Idol. Also, the networks that ran the advertisement beat the one that didn’t. Nearly 10 million people tuned into NBC to watch the ad; 8.6 million saw it on CBS; 7.1 million watched it on FOX; and the rest watched the infomercial on cable. By comparison, 6.2 million tuned into ABC’s “Pushing Daisies.” Poor "Pushing Daisies"; it's actually not a bad show, but it's one of those shows that would be more successful on HBO or Showtime. (We know, save the TV criticism for Shales, sorry Tom; but he does occasionally jump into politics, so fair play, right?).
*** Gore !!! The Terminator !!!
*** Scary Movie (for Republicans):A new Wicker ad concludes, “Send a failed ex-governor to support Hillary’s liberal agenda? Or a conservative with integrity and Mississippi values?” The clip Wicker uses is one of Clinton arguing for a filibuster-proof Senate; no mention of Franken, it's all about making Clinton the boogey-woman on this Halloween day.
*** Exorcist III :
*** Obama's radio advantage is spooky: One of the under-written process stories of the cycle is Obama's dominance on the radio airwaves. You looking for a good explanation for why Obama is doing well in states with heavy driving populations (like Florida and Montana, for instance?), go to the radio dial, where he's outspending McCain by huge margins. It's taken Democrats YEARS to realize that radio is not a wasted media effort. Bush dominated Kerry on radio in '04 and well…
*** Fun (or scary) fact of the day: The last time a Democrat won the White House without winning Tennessee was in 1960. And that just happens to be the last time the state was wrong in picking the president. In fact, Tennessee has proven to be a pretty reliable bellwether in the past 100 years -- choosing the eventual winner all but twice since 1912. But Tennessee is even more important to the Republican ticket. No Republican has won the White House without Tennessee since 1924.
*** On the trail: McCain spends a second day on his bus tour through Ohio, hitting Hanoverton, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, and Columbus. Obama holds a rally in Des Moines, IA, heads to Chicago to spend part of Halloween with his daughters, and holds an evening rally in Gary, IN. Biden begins his day with a rally in Delaware (remember he’s also running for Senate re-election there), and then travels to Ohio for events in Kettering and Lima. And Palin campaigns in Pennsylvania, visiting Latrobe and York.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 4 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails.
Political analyst Charlie Cook writes that, unless there’s divine intervention, McCain is probably going down to defeat. “Say what you will about the campaign he has waged and the running mate he picked, but the collapse in credit markets and the stock market may very well have ended his chances of victory, notwithstanding anything he could have said or done differently. The senator from Arizona is a good man, who served his country admirably. And many would say that he deserved a better chance than he got.”
As for Obama, Cook compares him to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, whom voters took a chance on after Hurricane Katrina. As I have watched the rise of Barack Obama and how he appears to be on the verge of being elected president, the Jindal analogy seems to ring true: People seem to want to take a chance. If my assumption of an Obama victory proves incorrect, this space will be filled next week with a huge mea culpa.”
The latest New York Times/CBS poll has Obama leading by 11 points, 51%-40%. “A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.”
CONTINUED >>
In its front-page centerpiece, the Boston Globe looks at the changing South. The racial divides that have buttressed Republican power in the South for decades appear to be crumbling in this year's elections, loosening the GOP's firm grip on the region, political analysts and independent pollsters say. “The South is still culturally conservative, and the deep South in particular is still challenging territory for Democrats, political specialists say. But demographic changes - including a migration of voters from other regions, as well as an increase in education and racial tolerance among some younger residents - have given Barack Obama and other Democrats an opening this year and are likely to change the electoral map in future elections, they said.”
A new round of numbers from Allstate/National Journal released yesterday show Obama up in five states that went for Bush in 2000. In Colorado, he leads 48-44%; in Florida, it’s 45-44%; in North Carolina, it’s 47-43%; in Ohio, it’s 48-41%; and in Virginia, it’s 48-44%.
ARIZONA: McCain’s last day of campaigning will end in Prescott, AZ. “He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state. McCain's campaign officials and Republican National Committee officials could not confirm for The Daily Courier Thursday that McCain would attend the event.”
As polls show McCain with a small lead in his home state, MoveOn has announced it’s going up with a TV ad in Arizona.
COLORADO: Another voter-identification alert . "And according to the Colorado Secretary of State's Office, as of Monday 35,620 first-time voters whose identity had not been verified requested mail ballots. Those voters should have been instructed to photocopy their driver's license or other identification and include it when they mailed back their ballots. If they fail to, the ballots will be treated as though they are provisional. That means county clerks will attempt after the election to verify the identity of the voter. If they can't, the ballots will be disqualified."
CONTINUED >>
"[W]hen John McCain called out to Joe at a rally yesterday morning in Ohio, he was nowhere to be found , producing a rather awkward moment. The scene is already recorded on YouTube and being sent around by gleeful Democrats. 'Joe, I thought you were here today,' McCain said, looking around before recovering to say, 'Well, you're all Joe the plumbers, so all of you stand up.'"NY Post cover: "Plumb job." "McCain: I'll take Joe to DC with me."
This is an interesting new TV ad from the McCain camp. It shows a clip of Obama praising McCain on global warming.
Speaking of ads… In this last week, the McCain campaign and the RNC are apparently keeping pace with Obama on spending. "The decision to finance a final advertising push is forcing McCain to curtail spending on Election Day ground forces to help usher his supporters to the polls, according to Republican consultants familiar with McCain's strategy."
More: “‘The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground,’ said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. ‘The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel.’”
This is a decision that will get second-guessed by a number of folks if McCain doesn't pull off this election. There already are a number of Republicans we're hearing from that wish the McCain-RNC team would cut their ad spending in half and invest that money in a ground game.
The AP : “Obama's campaign has approached Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel about possibly serving as White House chief of staff, officials said Thursday as the marathon presidential race entered its final, frenzied stretch with a Democratic tilt… The Democrats who described the Obama campaign's approach to Emanuel spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to be quoted by name. An aide to the congressman, Sarah Feinberg, said in an e-mail that he ‘has not been contacted to take a job in an administration that does not yet exist. Everyone is focused on Election Day, as they should be.’”
RNC spokesman Alex Conant said in response, “Rahm Emanuel is working with Barack Obama to create the most unbalanced and partisan government in a generation. Emanuel is among the most vitriolic and partisan people in American politics. Reports that Obama wants him to be White House chief of staff undercut any claims to unity and bipartisanship, and should alarm every voter.”
"Expect a turbocharged transition if Barack Obama wins, with a Treasury secretary and White House chief of staff named days after his election, Democratic sources told the Daily News Thursday."
"Barack Obama's campaign confirmed yesterday that [Zeituni] Onyango, who lives in a brick public housing complex on a side street not far from the headquarters of the Iron Workers, Local 7, is the senator's aunt," the Boston Globe reports. Onyango is Obama's paternal aunt, one of several children of the senator's grandfather, Hussein Onyango Obama. In his memoir, 'Dreams From My Father,' Obama refers to Onyango affectionately as Aunt Zeituni and recalls that she was the first person to greet him when he stepped off a plane for the first time in Kenya." She has also contributed in small donations to Obama's campaign.
The RNC has highlighted Obama telling NBC’s Brian Williams that “I believe that the 2nd Amendment is actually an individual right.” That’s consistent with what Obama said after June’s Supreme Court ruling overturning the DC gun ban. “I have always believed that the 2nd Amendment protects the right of individuals to bear arms,” he said in a statement, “but I also identify with the need for crime-ravaged communities to save their children from the violence that plagues our streets through common-sense, effective safety measures.” Yet, as the RNC pointed out, it’s at odds a bit with a questionnaire Obama signed in 1996, when he said he agreed with Illinois legislation banning the sale, manufacture, and distribution of handguns.
COLORADO: Hey, remember Tom Tancredo? The Hill reports that he's got his eye on the Colorado governorship for 2010. Any idea what his campaign might focus on ?
INDIANA: Incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels, who once looked to be in some possible hot water, has widened his lead over his Democratic challenger to almost 20 points.
OHIO: Three third-party candidates debated in Cleveland last night.
NEW YORK: The GOP is pulling out of three races in New York State, and staying in only two of them -- the one held by Tom Reynolds (who is retiring) and the one held by Randy Kuhl (who has been a perennial target since his election).
The Wall Street Journal runs a piece about how Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is preparing for the transition. "Paulson -- who has an interest in seeing the bailout succeed -- plans to consult with the new administration on key decisions, according to a Treasury official. He is carving out office space at Treasury, assembling briefing books and has been in frequent contact with both Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama."
Time's Von Drehle has a "how they would lead" piece in Time, which delves into the troubles facing either new president.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
From NBC's Rehema Ellis
A few weeks ago a couple of friends sent me e-mails asking: Is it true that a voter could be turned away from the polls for wearing a campaign T-shirts or buttons?
My initial reaction was, this is just silly stuff.
Then, I got to thinking, maybe what you wear could be interpreted as campaigning for a particular candidate and could cause a voter problems on election day. I know from covering past elections, anything that could be misconstrued as electioneering is not allowed in the polling places.
So, just to answer my friends' concerns, I did some checking and found out, it is true. In certain states you can be turned away from the polls if you're wearing something that shows support for a particular candidate or a ballot issue.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mke Memoli
Speaking in a town where Little League Baseball is king, Biden got a chance to crow about the new Major League Baseball World Series champions, the Philadelphia Phillies. It seems his wife is the real fan of the family, though, having braved the elements to see both nights of Game 5.
“I'm on the campaign trail, she says, ‘Joe I'm going to the Series,’” Biden said during a rally at Lycoming College. “So on Monday night in the rain, hair matted down, sitting outside soaking wet, she sat through the whole deal. She went back to, to the game last night and was there.”
The Delaware senator and Scranton native, meanwhile, didn’t even watch the end of the game last night, taking off from Florida just about 20 minutes before the final out was recorded. His wife not only was there, but appeared on sports talk radio in Philadelphia this morning, talking quite a bit about closer Brad Lidge .
“Worries me a little, sister,” he said to a nun in the audience.
CONTINUED >>
Joe the Plumber says McCain is 'real American'
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain found Joe the Plumber in Sandusky this afternoon and then brought him along to Lorain Community College as well. Although both the candidate and his new traveling companion made mostly the same remarks at each stop, Joe added one key line.
“Get out there and vote; it’s very important,” Joe said, after extolling the virtues of being well informed. “You get out here and get the American people back in charge of our government. Hold politicians' feet to the fire when they mess up. That’s what we’re out here to do. All right? Smaller government, you know? As far as everyone else here, well, that’s the question and go ask them to vote for a real American, John McCain.”
At the first stop, Joe had simply encouraged the crowd to vote without telling them to support McCain. But before a much smaller crowd at the college, Joe was a bit more specific.
During his introduction, McCain also had many a kind word for Joe, who has become something of a mascot for his campaign.
“So my friends, all the efforts we made in trying to make sure Americans understood that Sen. Obama wants to raise your taxes and he wants to increase your spending by $1 trillion, was the man who spoke for small businesses all over America Joe the Plumber,” McCain said.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger Palin painted her running mate Thursday as the more experienced candidate, who could balance both economic and foreign affairs, and said Obama was incapable of handling the multitude of challenges the next president will face.
“I think in this campaign a lot of Americans are realizing that a man can be admired in many ways, and he can show great promise, and yet still not be ready for the most important and demanding job in the world,” Palin said after meeting with the campaign’s national security advisors. “Rousing speeches can fill a stadium, but perhaps cannot keep this country safe though.”
Palin used her first extensive comments on national security to raise the threat of a Democratic White House and Congress, saying they would cut 25 percent of defense spending.
“Let's not retreat from wars that are almost won,” Palin said at Penn State University-Erie. “And let's not gut the defense budget, in a time of multiple conflicts and obvious dangers. And let's not entrust all the powers of the federal government to the one-party rule of Obama, Pelosi , and Reid .”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama says that the current economic crisis is going to make the next president's job much more difficult. Obama also talks about the Supreme Court and his judicial philosophy.
WILLIAMS: Has the job of president-elect, whether you or John McCain , changed right now this year because of what we're going through?
OBAMA: Yes. It's gonna be a lot tougher. I don't think there's any doubt about that. We -- we know that the next president is likely to inherit a significant recession. We don't know yet how long and how deep it is and what actions we take over the next six to nine months could help determine how deep and how long.
But what that also means is that there's gonna be less revenue coming in because businesses aren't making as much money. It means that unemployment is gonna be higher. There's gonna be greater demands on social services. It means that, you know, dealing with our short-term deficit and our long-term debt is gonna be more difficult.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
SARASOTA, Fla. -- At an early vote rally in a county
President Bush won the last two elections,
Obama talked about new data showing an economic slowdown, saying they were a result of the failed, trickle-down economic theories that
McCain would continue.
“If you want to know where John McCain will drive this economy, just look in the rearview mirror. Because when it comes to our economic policies, John McCain has been right next to George Bush. He’s been sitting there in the passenger seat ready to take over every step of the way,” Obama told about 13,000 people at a baseball stadium. “At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old economic theory that says we should give more and more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else."
Video: Barack Obama tells a Florida rally that John McCain has been in the passenger seat as George Bush drove the economy down. "The last thing we can afford," he added, "is four more years where no one in Washington is paying attention to what’s going on Wall Street and lobbyists kill common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked. It is time to change drivers. It is time to have somebody else at the wheel.”
McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded, “If voters looked into Barack Obama’s rearview, they’d see that he supported every one of Washington’s wasteful spending bills and has voted for higher taxes 94 times in just three years. His economic proposals are driven by job killing tax increases and out-of-control spending -- Barack Obama would drive this sputtering economy off a cliff.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
ARNOLD, Mo. -- Recent layoffs at a nearby auto plant were Exhibit A for
Biden this morning as he spoke about new economic data showing a shrinking economy.
Reaching out to those who lost their jobs when a Chrysler plant shut its doors in nearby Fenton yesterday, Biden somberly related their plight to those of auto workers in his home state when a GM plant closed, saying that just as he stood with them in good times and bad, and that he and
Obama would work to create new jobs if elected.
“That walk from that plant gate to their car to home is one of the longest walks they’ve ever taken in their life,” Biden said, but not as long as the walk they faced at home to tell their kids they might have to sell their home and move elsewhere.
“That conversation is taking place in 35,000 homes right here in Missouri right here this year,” he said. “You know, if we can help Wall Street, we oughta be able to help Jeffco Boulevard and other streets in Arnold to be able to do the same thing to help them. And we’re not paying enough attention.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
DEFIANCE, Ohio -- "Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today?"
That's the question
John McCain asked roughly 6,000 people at Defiance Junior High School here this morning, But the correct answer was no -- Joe the Plumber was nowhere to be found.
There are conflicting reports about where or when or if Joe will appear with McCain at some point during his two-day bus tour of Ohio, but the candidate clearly thought that he was meeting him here in Defiance, the first stop on the tour.
Video: At an Ohio rally, Sen. John McCain calls out to 'Joe the plumber' but Joe wasn't there, so he tells the audience, "you're all Joe." While riffing on a common line from his stump speech about
Obama's desire to "spread the wealth," McCain confidently proclaimed, "Joe's with us today. Joe where are ya? Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today? Joe, I thought you were here today."
Then the senator covered up for Joe's absence by saying, "All right, well you're all Joe the Plumber. So all of ya stand up ,and say I thank you." McCain went on to say that he had seen Joe on TV this morning, and he asked the crowd to "give him a round of applause for what he's done for America.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann As some pundits predict thunderclouds gathering on the horizon for incumbent Senate Republicans, a new NBC poll shows that Sen. Norm Coleman may be positioned to ride out the storm.
The results from the poll of likely voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon October 27-28, have Coleman leading opponent Al Franken by six points, 42-36, with 12% of respondents favoring Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley. One in ten Minnesotans are undecided.
Video: In a year when “Saturday Night Live” is making big waves by lampooning politicians, a famous alumnus, Al Franken, is hoping to become one. NBC’s John Yang reports. If Coleman puts daylight between Franken’s numbers and his own on Election Day, he may have Barkley to thank. While he has shored up 89% of voters who identify as Republicans, with only 4% defecting to Barkley’s camp, only about three out of four Democrats say that they support their party nominee, with 17% of Democratic voters favoring the Independence Party candidate over Franken.
Franken’s bombastic and sometimes offensive outbursts during his days as a comedian, highlighted by ads run by his Republican opponents, appear to have taken a toll. He has a net negative approval rating among respondents, with almost half saying that they have an unfavorable impression of the former entertainer.
Coleman, who has pushed to cast himself as a forward-looking and optimistic candidate, is beating his opponent by double digits among voters 35-64 and by 15 points among men.
The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4%, also showed Barack Obama leading McCain in Minnesota 48% to 40%.
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain with an 11-point lead over Obama among likely South Carolina voters, 53%-42%.
Yet that margin is smaller is among registered voters, 50%-44%.
Video: In response to the recent reports of dissension in the McCain camp Sen. John McCain explains that there is always a little friction in any presidential campaign. CBNC's John Harwood reports. Also don't miss this nugget from Princeton Survey pollster Evans Witt: cellphone respondents tend to back Obama by a greater percentage. "Unlike many state polls during the 2008 campaign, this survey included interviews on both landline phones and on cellphones in South Carolina. Among the landline interviews, McCain holds a 50% to 42% margin. But among cellphone interviews, the candidates are tied: McCain 48% and Obama 49%. Those interviewed on cell phone are more likely to be young and young voters heavily favor Obama."
The poll was conducted from October 25-28, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4% for registered voters and plus-minus 5% for likely voters.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann : Last night’s Obama infomercial seemed to pull out all the stops. Details for his plans? Check. Profiles of families from key battleground states? Check. Testimonials from popular politicians from battleground states? Check. Climax at the end with a jam-packed rally? Check. Still, it was pretty clear the Obama camp took to heart the potential criticism of the infomercial being over-the-top. Large parts of it were pretty subdued. It was interesting how it was focused on voters -- and not himself. One might have expected a little more biography. Then again, if he felt the need to fix his bio with voters at this late date, he'd be in trouble. The end was impressive. Not since Reagan have we seen a candidate so adept at hitting his time cues. Even if you didn’t like the 30-minute spot -- and even if it didn't win over a single undecided voter -- this much is true: It gobbled up a day’s worth of attention. And we now have just five days left…
Video: NBC Deputy Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the impact of Barack Obama's 30-minute infomercial and the latest NBC electoral map snapshot. *** Al Gore returns to Florida: Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm Beach and Fort. Lauderdale. It's the first time he's campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he's campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he's not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running. It's more evidence that the Obama campaign believes Florida -- more so than Ohio, Missouri, Indiana or even North Carolina -- is the back-breaker. From last night's infomercial to the first Bill Clinton event with Obama, every little thing appears to be geared toward winning Florida.
*** Sitting down with Brian Williams: As we mentioned yesterday, Obama had a busy day Wednesday (the rally with Bill Clinton, interviews with Jon Stewart and ABC’s Charlie Gibson, and the infomercial). Today, Obama sits down with NBC’s Brian Williams. Be sure to tune into Nightly News at 6:30 pm ET for the interview.
Video: Following Barack Obama’s half-hour prime-time ad, former President Bill Clinton offered a ringing endorsement at a late-night rally in Florida. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports. *** The feeding frenzy: A senior Palin aide yesterday lambasted news organizations for confusing the answers to two questions in ABC’s interview with the Alaska governor, and for suggesting Palin was reflecting on presidential ambitions for 2012. However, this is more evidence of how Palin -- the GOP ticket’s No.2 -- is still taking up too much oxygen, and that's the real problem with her candidacy. She's become the focal point of every process story in America. Now, the 2012 speculation yesterday was a product more of media hype than anything she actually said. But it's turned her political future into another feeding frenzy.
*** Another day, another round of polls: New NBC/Mason-Dixon polls show the race in Pennsylvania to be a bit closer than other polls have suggested. Also, they have McCain ahead by just four points in his home state of Arizona. In Pennsylvania, Obama’s up 47%-43%; in Minnesota, he’s up 48%-40%; and in Arizona, it’s McCain 48%, Obama 44%. Meanwhile, here are some new CNN/Time polls: Obama’s up eight points in Colorado among likely voters (53%-45%); up four in Florida (51%-47%); and up nine points in Virginia (53%-44%). McCain, meanwhile, leads in Georgia (52%-47%) and Missouri (50%-48%). And a second batch of CNN/Time polls have McCain up eight points in Arizona (53%-46%), but Obama leading in Nevada (52%-45%), North Carolina (52%-46%), Ohio (51%-47%), and Pennsylvania (55%-43%).
*** Flashback time: By the way, today just happens to be the one-year anniversary of the MSNBC debate in Philadelphia that tripped up Hillary Clinton on the question of drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants. It seems longer than a year, right?
*** The politics of the bailout: Forty-one out of the 51 senators in the Democratic caucus voted for the $700 billion financial rescue package earlier this month, reports MSNBC.com's Tom Curry. But two Democratic Senate candidates are now using the bailout as weapon to assail Republican incumbents who voted for it. In Minnesota yesterday, Democratic challenger Al Franken slammed the bailout as "an outrage," waging a populist appeal against opponent Norm Coleman, whom he hopes to paint as a Washington insider. In Georgia, Democrat Jim Martin has slammed Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) for voting for the bill, and his campaign said yesterday that, “Saxby isn’t telling the truth about the bailout.” Chambliss hopes that his "yea" vote for the measure will not peel supporters away in the tough Georgia Senate race, acknowledging that there has been some grassroots Republican indignation about the bill but that more and more Georgians were seeing that it was needed. (Democrats in two of the country's other tight races have no such ammunition -- Sens. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Roger Wicker of Mississippi voted “no” on the $700 billion package.)
*** Fun fact of the day: There's been a lot of talk of Obama's expanded map. One place that's probably too much of a reach for Obama is West Virginia -- though it is Lean McCain. But do you know that no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916, when it went for former Republican New York Gov. Charles Evans Hughes, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, over Woodrow Wilson. The Teddy Roosevelt-backed Hughes actually almost won that election. The result hung in the balance for three days because of a close vote in California, which ultimately went for Wilson by just 3,773 votes. By the way, Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in West Virginia since 1956, and that losing streak will continue with this year’s election.
*** On the trail: McCain spends his day in Ohio, stopping in Defiance, Sandusky, Elyria, and Mentor. Obama holds three rallies in three different states: Sarasota, FL, Virginia Beach, VA, and Columbia, MO. Biden stumps in Arnold, MO before heading to Pennsylvania, where he visits Williamsport and Allentown. And Palin campaigns has rallies in Cape Girardeau, MO, Erie, PA, and Williamsport, PA.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 5 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Voting problems? Call 866-OUR-VOTE or log on to 866ourvote.org.
The
New York Times’ Leibovich notes the differences between rallies for McCain-Palin and Obama. “Supporters of Senators Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. often look like Benetton-colored billboards, decked out for their candidates in Obama-Biden hats, T-shirts and buttons. Supporters of Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin like logo merchandise, too, but tend more toward pompoms (yes, pompoms), homemade signs (‘Pitbulls 4 Freedom’), flag pins and chest paint. There is more dancing at Democratic rallies, more shouting out at Republican ones. They chant ‘Yes, we can’ (or ‘Sí, se puede’) at Obama and Biden rallies, ‘U.S.A.’ and ‘Drill, baby, drill’ at McCain and Palin rallies; the D’s bounce to blaring folk-rock and Motown (Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder) and the R’s counter with country-pop (including Dolly Parton’s ‘9 to 5’) and arena rock (AC/DC).”
Leibovich adds, “Democratic rallygoers seem more worried about Ms. Palin than about Mr. McCain. They speak of feeling weary of ‘the politics of fear’ and claim Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin are ‘irrelevant’ — unless they win, as one supporter in Charleston, W.Va., said with a smile-cringe. When you ask Republicans what they think of Mr. Obama, the word ‘socialist’ comes up more often than not. They mention that he is a smooth talker, and not in a good way. A lot of them seem to have real problems with Michelle Obama, too, though they cannot pinpoint why. And they do not much care for that Joe Biden, either, or whatever his name is — many cannot immediately summon it.” Politico says it would be a mistake for the McCain campaign to bank on grabbing a lion’s share of the undecided vote to close the gap. “The pool of undecided voters on Election Day could be as large as one in 10, but John McCain can hardly rely on them to overtake Barack Obama. According to past election results, undecided voters are unlikely to break decisively for either candidate and dramatically alter Tuesday’s race. In the past eight presidential contests, voters who made up their minds during the last week of the campaign never went for either ticket by large margins of 3-2 or 2-1, which potentially could tip the scales. ‘There is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain,’ said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.” CONTINUED >>
ARIZONA :
TPM reports that McCain is running robo-calls against Obama in his home state. “The call signals genuine worry about McCain's home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there.”
COLORADO: Per the
Denver Post : "Ballots cast by voters who have been canceled from the state's voter rolls since mid-May will get extra oversight to make sure their votes are counted, under an agreement reached late Wednesday in U.S. District Court.” Three Dem-leaning groups “sued Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman, alleging that his office had violated the National Voter Registration Act by illegally purging about 31,000 eligible voters from the rolls 90 days before the election."
FLORIDA: More than one in five early voters in Florida are African-American, the Orlando Sentinel reports, but young people don't appear to be voting at high rates.
MISSOURI: The St. Louis Dispatch front-pages a numbers-rich primer on Missouri voting and potential problems at the ballot Tuesday.
CONTINUED >>
McCain tried to
refocus on national security and whether Obama could keep the country safe. "The question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and the other great threats in the world," McCain said. "He has given no reason to answer in the affirmative." Just asking... but wouldn't any president have the American military, the CIA and an arsenal of nuclear weapons?
The
Los Angeles Times covers the McCain camp’s criticism of the paper for not releasing a video of “a 2003 event at which Barack Obama paid tribute to a Palestinian scholar. The Republican presidential and vice presidential nominees accused the newspaper of trying to protect their Democratic rival in the final days before Tuesday's election. Editors at The Times and the reporter who wrote an article in April about Obama's connection to the Palestinian scholar, Rashid Khalidi, said they were ethically bound to abide by a promise to a confidential source not to share the video.”
CONTINUED >>
The
Los Angeles Times writes, “Barack Obama's 30-minute campaign commercial Wednesday night was not merely a tactical decision to carpet-bomb millions of Americans in pursuit of a few thousand undecided voters who can dictate the outcome of the presidential campaign. Aired on seven network and cable stations, the ad served as a national get-out-the-vote organizing tool for Obama operatives. It offered even the swiftest channel-flipper the chance to see Obama looking presidential, helping to condition voters to that possibility. And once again it proved to John McCain, and everyone else, how Obama's deep pool of campaign cash has allowed him to rewrite the rules of the campaign.”
The Washington Post’s Tom Shales seemed to like the infomercial. “As political filmmaking, ‘Barack Obama: American Stories’ was an elegant combination of pictures, sounds, voices and music designed not so much to sell America on Barack Obama as to communicate a sensibility. The film conveyed feelings, not facts -- specifically, a simulation of how it would feel to live in an America with Barack Obama in the White House. The tone and texture recalled the ‘morning in America’ campaign film made on behalf of Ronald Reagan, a work designed to give the audience a sense of security and satisfaction; things are going to be all right.”
More: “Although McCain was not seen during the half-hour, one could easily summon the contrasting image of the Republican while watching Obama. McCain has come across on television as relatively worried, whiny, fusty and falsely folksy. He brought bad news; he has come to epitomize and personify it. Obama brings you medication along with the list of symptoms; he has developed a great bedside, as well as fireside, manner… It was the easiest thing in the world, watching the skillfully edited hodgepodge put together by his campaign, to picture Obama as president. That's one thing the film was designed to do, especially for the doubters and those scared, ‘undecided’ voters out there.”
CONTINUED >>
"A new ethics complaint has been filed against Sarah Palin, accusing the Alaska governor of abusing her power by charging the state when her children traveled with her," the
AP reports. "The complaint alleges that the Republican vice presidential nominee used her official position as governor for personal gain, violating a statute of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act. It follows a report by The Associated Press last week that Palin charged the state more than $21,000 for her three daughters' commercial flights, including events where they weren't invited, and later ordered their expense forms amended to specify official state business. In some cases, Palin also has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls."
The Boston Globe on Palin's energy independence speech: "Despite Palin's attempt to distance McCain's energy policies from those of the Bush administration, their priorities are largely similar, especially more domestic production."CONTINUED >>
The New York Times’ headline of Ted Stevens’ return to Alaska: “Ted Stevens Receives a Hero’s Welcome in Alaska.” From the story: “Two days after he was convicted on seven felony counts in Washington, Senator Ted Stevens returned to Alaska on Wednesday night to begin a six-day campaign sprint, telling several hundred supporters at a rally here that he would be vindicated on appeal and asking them to elect him to a seventh term. ‘I will represent Alaska in the senate while my lawyers pursue the appeals to clear my name,’ Mr. Stevens said.”
“Mr. Stevens made no reference to those demands on Wednesday, but he spent half of his eight-minute speech criticizing his conviction. He expressed regret but stopped short of apologizing, saying he had been guilty only of naïveté. ‘Like most people, I’m not perfect,’ Mr. Stevens said at one point, before referring to Mr. Allen. ‘I naïvely trusted someone who I thought was an honest friend, when he was neither honest nor a friend. That naïve trust, however, has put all Alaskans and my family through an ordeal that I deeply regret.’”
From NBC's Don Teague Barack Obama can lose the presidential election.
As a person who’s worked in “red states” for much of my career, I feel compelled to offer an alternative view.
Specifically, I want to give you the perspective of my neighbor, Dan. Yes, you can call him “Dan the neighbor.”
“Dan the neighbor” is not a racist.
For the record, I’ve known racists before. Some of them are obvious. Others drop hints about their views, hoping to find a like-minded person to share their fear or hatred with.
I know this because I’ve spent plenty of time with Dan over the three years that he’s lived next door. We’ve tossed a football back and forth over the fence and talked politics. We’ve had beers and barbecue at each other’s homes. I’ve borrowed his tractor (this is Texas). He has even let me drive his boat. He’s a good guy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray The Obama campaign has distributed a brief clip of tonight's 30-minute TV infomercial.
From NBC's Mark Murray Politico breaks the news: "Move over Sanjaya and tell William Hung the news: Joe the Plumber is being pursued for a major record deal and could come out with a country album as early as Inauguration Day."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain tried to shift the public conversation back to national security with a roundtable at the University of Tampa here today and a statement featuring some of his harshest language pointing out Obama’s lack of security credentials.
“The question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and other grave threats in the world,” McCain said. “And he has given you no reason to answer in the affirmative.”
Surrounding McCain during his statement were various admirals, generals, and national security bigwigs like former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge and former Navy Secretary John Lehman. McCain used these advisers as examples of respected people who doubt Obama’s ability to handle an international crisis.
“These statesmen and those who have joined me here today are supporting my candidacy, because we share many of the same convictions and the same assessment of the national security challenges before our country,” McCain said. “And with good reason, they question whether my opponent in this election has the wisdom or judgment to serve as commander in chief.”
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo Sen.
John Ensign , the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the man in charge of keeping the Democrats from reaching a 60-seat majority, told Norah O'Donnell on MSNBC today that Alaska Sen.
Ted Stevens (R-AK) should step down.
"Sen. Stevens should do the right thing and resign."
Sen. Ensign joins a list of high profile senate Republicans to call for Stevens' resignation. "The statesman-like thing for Sen. Stevens would be to resign," he continued. "I'd like to see a special election in the state of Alaska, so they can actually choose between a Republican and Democrat."
"This was unfortunate, obviously, timing."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
BOWLING GREEN, Ohio -- At an event where
Palin was joined by Joe the Plumber, the Republican vice-presidential candidate took up her running mate's attacks against
Obama and the media Wednesday. She suggested, as
McCain has, that the Los Angeles Times was withholding a videotape in which Obama attended a 2003 send off for Rashid Khalidi, a Columbia University professor and friend with past ties to the Palestinian Liberation Organization.
It's a story the Times reported on in April , which the McCain campaign is now pushing. The Obama campaign would point to a Huffington Post report that when McCain was the chairman of the International Republican Instutitute, it gave grants to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies.
“It must be nice for a candidate to have major news organizations looking after his best interests like that,” Palin said, charging that the newspaper was witholding the tape to aid Obama. "In this case, we have a newspaper willing to throw aside even the public's right to know in order to protect a candidate that its own editorial board has endorsed. And if there's a Pulitzer Prize category for excelling in kow-towing, then the L.A. Times, you're winning.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
RALEIGH, N.C. -- At a rally here,
Obama mocked his rival for linking his plan to end tax breaks for wealthy Americans and provide more tax relief for the middle class to “socialism."
“Because [
McCain ] knows that his economic theories don’t work, he’s spending these last few days calling me every name in the book,” Obama said, referring to McCain’s "socialist" charge. “I don’t know what’s next. By the end of the week, he’ll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten. I shared my, uh, peanut butter and jelly sandwich.”
Video: Speaking in North Carolina, Barack Obama says John McCain is echoing George Bush's economic policies of tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations, and the privatization of social security. The McCain campaign, which has consistently sought to paint Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal in ads and on the stump, sent out its own quip in response. “No one cares what Barack Obama does with his toys, but Americans do care that he wants to raise taxes, add a trillion dollars in new spending and redistribute your hard-earned paycheck as he sees fit,” said spokesman Tucker Bounds.
In his speech today, Obama also sharpened his argument that he better understands the concerns of the middle class by employing a tool -- both literally and rhetorically -- that John McCain’s campaign has taken up on the trail in recent weeks: Joe the Plumber.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Ron Allen
MELBOURNE, Fla. -- It was a surprisingly chilly morning in Ocala yesterday, where
Biden was practically sprinting to the end of his speech at the Dancing Horses Farm.
"So, Get up. Get up!" Biden yells into the mic, his signature big finish, quoting his dad's advice when Joe Jr. met misfortune like getting knocked down on the football field or facing rejection by a girl.
Now, it's time for America to "Get up” the candidate proclaims, with ear-splitting volume, often while pounding the podium.
The press corps checks the time with anticipation. Biden clocks in under 15 minutes, perhaps 14:40, unofficially. That could be a record for his fastest speech of the fall campaign season. Exact times for some recent events are the subject of some dispute. Let's just say he's trying to talk to as many voters as possible down the home stretch.
And for the record the overnight temperature was listed at 36 degrees -- painfully disappointing, in fact shocking, for the shivering pack of reporters now following Biden from summer into autumn, who had been looking forward to a much warmer swing through the Sunshine State.CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
JUPITER, Fla. -- As his three-day bus tour of the Sunshine State worked its way south,
Joe Biden placed additional emphasis this morning on seniors issues and Israel, saying that the security of the latter can be best assured by restoring America’s image abroad.
“I’ve worked with every prime minister of Israel from Golda Meir right through to the present prime minister,” Biden said. “That’s why Barack and I know, we know what the Israelis know and all our friends know. That is, the greater the respect for America, the stronger America is in the world, the more secure Israel and the rest of our friends are in the world.”
The line was notable not just because of where it was delivered, but also because it came as the
McCain campaign criticized the
Los Angeles Times for withholding a video they say “could provide a clearer link between
Barack Obama and Rashid Khalid,” a Palestinian activist.
Biden also placed new emphasis today on Obama’s plans for seniors and retirees, wondering along with the crowd of 2,000 what would have happened to Social Security if “
Bush and McCain had succeeded” in privatization.
CONTINUED >>
Does a commanding lead translate to the 'commander-in-chief question'? In his latest blog, Luke Russert looks at numbers from the most recent NBC/WSJ poll that indicate that voters are still placing trust in John McCain as a leader in crisis even as Obama's approval ratings soar.
"These numbers tell us that people see John McCain over Barack Obama in the commander-in-chief role," he writes. "While Obama leads on the economy, easily as important an issue, swing voters in swing states may think about whom they see as commander-in-chief when they pull the lever."
Check out more here , at Luke's Off Air blog.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
TOLEDO, Ohio --
Palin reframed her calls for energy independence today, suggesting investments in new domestic technologies were needed to reduce reliance on foreign countries that are “using energy as a weapon.”
“In the worst cases, some of the most, the world's most oil-rich nations are also the most oppressive societies,” she said in a policy address here at Xunlight Corporation, which produces solar panels. “And whether we like it or not, the money we pay, US dollars, going to pay for their oil only makes them more powerful and more oppressive.”
Palin said oil wealth has allowed undemocratic countries to “crush dissent and to subjugate women, to oppress the people who live in these countries.”
Palin has advocated for energy independence often on the campaign trail, most notably in her mantra to “drill, baby, drill" and "mine, baby, mine.” She comes to the issue with personal experience, and spent considerable time outlining her work securing a gas pipeline in Alaska. In doing so, she knocked oil companies -- singling out ExxonMobil -- that she said were responsible for delays.
“They should have been competing to invest in a new means of delivering their product to market,” Palin said. “They should have been competing for the right to tap into the hungry markets, flowing our resources into those hungry markets. And instead, they wanted a higher and higher price than any fair competition would yield, so they wouldn’t build the line. They were holding out for more billions of dollars -- in public money.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
A week before the election, pundits are abuzz with speculation that Republican
Sen. Elizabeth Dole , once considered unbeatable in North Carolina, may be on her way to a defeat at the hands of well-funded newcomer
Kay Hagan . Things must be looking pretty tough... Check out this new ad from the Dole campaign, which slams Hagan for attending a September fundraiser with members of the "Godless America" PAC. The spot highlights comments from members of the "secular" group, including one who proclaims, "There was no Jesus."
The ad concludes "What did Hagan promise in return?"
Hagan's team is calling for a cease-and-desist order, calling the spot "the nastiest, most misleading, negative ad of the campaign."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann In with the new… : A brand-new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll illustrates not only McCain’s challenge come Election Day, but also the challenge the Republican Party could face in future elections. In the poll, Obama enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage over McCain among first-time (read: 18-21 year olds) and lapsed voters, 69%-27%. These voters have a much more positive view of Obama (64%-27% fav/unfav rating) than average voters do (56%-33% fav/unfav in last week’s NBC/WSJ survey). What’s more, they have a much more negative view of McCain (29%-59%) and Palin (23%-54%) than average voters do. All of this suggests that a big turnout among these new and lapsed voters would benefit Obama on Election Day. The only question is: Will they turn out? In the poll, 66% say they are certain to vote -- but that’s far less than the 90% of all voters who said that in last week's NBC/WSJ poll. Dem pollster Peter Hart compares this (potential) Obama advantage among young voters with the evangelical advantage Bush built in '04. Yet unlike Bush, Obama can count on this advantage in every state, not just in the handful of areas where evangelicals are concentrated. What does this mean? The young vote/new voter demographic could provide Obama a 3-5 point buffer with the rest of the electorate.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the up and down sides of tonight's Obama infomercial and the Democrats' attack ad against Sarah Palin. ***
… And out with the old? A very ominous sign for the Republican Party is how Democratic-leaning these new and lapsed voters are. Not only do they back Obama by a 69%-27 margin, they also prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 2-to-1 margin, 66%-31%. And their views of President Bush? His fav/unfav among these voters is 14%-73%. Ouch. While Karl Rove had ambitious hopes of turning Bush's presidency into a permanent majority for the GOP, this poll suggests that Bush's lasting legacy could actually be turning off a new generation of voters. After all, consider what young voters who came of voting age during the past seven years might associate the GOP with -- the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina, the current economy, various political scandals (Jack Abramoff, Ted Stevens, etc.), and Bush. Speaking of the president, the White House released his schedule from today until Sunday, and get this -- the sitting president of the United States will not be campaigning in the final week of the campaign. Amazing. In fact, as NBC’s John Yang notes, Bush hasn’t made a single public campaign appearance with a GOP candidate this cycle. He has raised money for them, some $150 million this cycle. But that's down from the $186 million he helped raise for the GOP in the 2006 cycle.
*** Obama’s big day : While both presidential candidates have busy schedules, check out Obama's day. He holds a rally in North Carolina; stumps with Biden in Sunrise, FL; tapes an interview with Jon Stewart that will appear tonight; tapes an interview with ABC’s Charlie Gibson that will run tomorrow; and then appears at an 11:00 pm ET rally in Orlando, FL with Bill Clinton. (Call it the "Barack and Bill Show." It’s the first time these two have campaigned together, and on any other day this would be today's cable chatterer of the day.) Oh, and then there’s that 30-minute TV ad buy the campaign will air tonight at 8:00 pm ET on NBC, CBS, FOX, MSNBC, Univision, BET, and TV One. The New York Times got a sneak peak of the buy, and the paper says that part of the time, Obama is speaking to the camera; at other times, the advertisement highlights everyday voters and their troubles. No one believes this 30-minute special is an automatic homerun. There's some risk here if it looks presumptuous or too much. Then again, when is the last time that Obama has flubbed a big speech?
*** “Not ready --yet”: Meanwhile, the McCain campaign has a 30-second ad it’ll broadcast nationally to respond to Obama’s infomercial. One word in the ad jumps out at us, and it will at you, too -- "yet." It's an oddly positive term when it comes after the phrase "he's not ready." It implies to the viewer that, someday, Obama might be ready. And it reminds us of conversations we had a few months ago with various McCain partisans, who believed if they could convince voters that Obama would be president someday if he loses this year, then McCain could win. That word "yet" is aimed at those voters who want change, are tired of Bush, aren't thrilled with McCain these last few weeks, but aren't convinced Obama's ready. It may be too late to make the "McCain as transitional president" argument, but this is a fickle electorate.
*** Obama camp plays the Palin card : McCain, though, isn’t the only one up with a new TV ad. The Obama camp has unveiled a new one that uses McCain’s past quotes about his lack of understanding on economic issues. And it also appears to be the first Obama ad that brings up McCain’s choice of Palin as his running mate. The script: “John McCain in his own words ‘I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.’ Wall Street Journal, 11/26/05. ‘The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should.’ Boston Globe Political Intelligence, 12/18/07. ‘I might have to rely on a vice president that I select” for expertise on economic issues.’ GOP Debate, 11/28/07.His choice? (Shows a clip of Palin winking.) On November 4th, You Get to Make Yours.” Now if history is any guide, attack ads on running mates usually don't work. But then again, Palin's no ordinary running mate.
*** Too close to call? Last night, the McCain campaign released a memo from its pollster, Bill McInturff, who argued that his polls show the race to be tightening. “The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking. The campaign is functionally tied [Editor's Note: "functionally" is an interesting term, but we digress] across the battleground states, with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks… As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.” The fact is, McInturff doesn't make up poll numbers. The key to this election and understanding which polls are right and which ones are wrong have everything to do with projecting turnout. What percentage of the electorate will be under 30? What percentage will be African-American? If you know the answers to those two questions, you'll have a poll that's more likely to be correct. Some other interesting nuggets in his memo: McInturff believes turnout will surpass 130 million; that's actually a conservative estimate given that others believe the number will get closer to 140 million and possibly even 145 million. Also, McInturff believes something we've argued for some time: Obama's poll number will be his number in a given state; undecided voters will break for McCain. And it is this final point that does have McCain folks not throwing in the towel yet. While there might not be such a thing as the "Bradley Effect," there could be a "Wilder Effect." In Doug Wilder's race, he was at 50% in the final polls and that's basically what he got on Election Day. It was enough for victory, but undecideds dramatically moved against him.
*** Polls, polls, polls : By the way, here are some of the most recent battleground polls we’ve seen. New LA Times/Bloomberg surveys have Obama ahead among likely voters by seven points in Florida (50%-43%) and by nine points in Ohio (49%-40%). New Quinnipiac polls show McCain gaining ground in Florida (Obama ahead 47%-45%, down from 49%-44%), but Obama maintaining big leads in Ohio (51%-42%) and Pennsylvania (53%-41%). Finally, a slew of new state polls from the AP: Florida (Obama 45%-43%), Nevada (Obama 52%-40%), New Hampshire (Obama 55%-37%), North Carolina (Obama 48%-46%), Ohio (Obama 48%-41%), Pennsylvania (Obama 52%-40%), and Virginia (Obama 49%-42%).
*** The Mississippi Senate race : When he hit the road on a swing through the politically hot Southern United States, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry spotted an Obama ad during the 6:00 pm local news in Jackson, MS -- a state that hasn't given a Democrat a victory since 1982. That may be surprising, until you take a look at the demographic groups that will help decide Mississippi's Senate race on November 4th. The contest pits an embattled Republican incumbent, Roger Wicker, against former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), who's seen $7 million pumped into his once-unlikely campaign by the DSCC. An Obama-fueled spike in turnout among African Americans -- who made up about 34% of the electorate in 2004 -- could mix with Musgrove's high name recognition to launch the Democrat to victory and the Senate one vote closer to 60. Wicker has a big lead in polls, but when you talk to strategists, the assumption is that huge African-American turnout will close things dramatically. One thing to keep in mind, though: There's no party ID on the ballot. If there are a bunch of new voters showing up who haven't followed the race but want to vote for the Democrat, they won't know which one is the Dem on the ballot; they'll need to know this information before the go into the polls. Day of information campaigns is going to prove potentially decisive for Musgrove.
*** The ballot prop in SD : South Dakota, not always the laser focus of the nation's political attention, caught a piece of the election spotlight in 2006, when it voted down a ballot initiative that would have banned almost all abortions. That measure, which did not include exceptions for rape and incest, was viewed as too restrictive by a majority of the state's voters, who rejected the initiative 56%-44%. This year, South Dakotans will take up a similar, though less restrictive, ballot initiative that includes more exceptions to an abortion ban but would still -- if passed -- likely prompt a Supreme Court showdown over one of the country's most controversial topics.
*** Fun fact of the day : Dela-where? With McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, and Dem running mate Joe Biden all attended the University of Delaware, it's worth pointing out that prior to 2000, the state was a bellwether. It voted for every winner from 1952 to 1996 -- tied for the longest streak of any state at the time.
*** On the trail : McCain spends his day in Florida, holding a “Joe the plumber” event in Miami, a national security roundtable in Tampa, and then another “Joe the plumber” event in Palm Beach. Obama attends rallies in Raleigh, NC, Sunrise, FL (joined by Biden), and Orlando, FL (joined by Bill Clinton). Biden separately campaigns in Jupiter, FL. Palin, in Ohio, delivers a policy speech on energy in Toledo before hitting rallies in Bowling Green, Chillicothe, and later Jeffersonville, IN. And Michelle Obama stumps in Rocky Mount, NC.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 6 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails .
New LA Times/Bloomberg polls show Obama ahead among likely voters by seven in Florida (50%-43%) and by nine in Ohio (49%-40%).
New Quinnipiac polls show McCain gaining ground in Florida (Obama ahead 47%-45%, down from 49%-44%), but maintaining big leads in Ohio (51%-42%) and Pennsylvania (53%-41%).
And the AP is out with a slew of state polls. "The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president."
Also: "In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling, two vote-rich states Bush carried in 2004. Obama is throwing his time and money into the Sunshine State, which has 27 votes, part of a strategy to create many routes to victory and push toward a landslide of 300 or more electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 votes."
The Washington Post runs the maybe-the-polls-are-wrong story.
ARIZONA : There’s another Arizona poll showing a dead heat. "With less than a week until Election Day, McCain is leading his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, by 2 points, 46 to 44, down from a 7-point lead a month ago and a double-digit lead this summer, according to a poll from Arizona State University."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes about McCain’s advertising blitz in key battleground state markets. “Unable to match the Obama juggernaut, Mr. McCain is making a last stand in towns he needs to win, like this one [Norfolk, VA], where he and the Republican National Committee have combined resources to advertise as heavily as Mr. Obama, who has not needed similar help from his party. The situation is similar in Cincinnati; Harrisburg, Pa.; and Richmond, Va., which are among the places where Mr. McCain has tried to match Mr. Obama.”
“Analysts say he has little choice. ‘If you’re the McCain campaign, there are two columns right now in your thinking: places you have to win and places you need to win,’ said Evan Tracey, the chief operative officer of CMAG, a company that monitors political advertising. Translating that into laymen’s terms, Mr. Tracey said, ‘You don’t have to eat, but you need to breathe.’”
Salon's Shapiro pens a piece that is sure to become CW on McCain very soon. The thesis: The McCain of 2000 would be in much better shape in this election than this McCain.
The health-care issue continues to be one that the McCain campaign is getting clobbered on. Yesterday, the campaign found itself on the defensive ... AGAIN.
The AP lists the Republicans questioning McCain, campaign decisions, or straying off message, including Palin, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, former South Dakota Sen. Larry Pressler, Rep. Paul Ryan (WI), Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, Scott McClellan and former Reagan Solicitor General Charles Fried (who asked "that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. Fried said chief among the reasons 'is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis.'")
The AP curtain-raises tonight's Obama infomercial, which will run on several networks beginning at 8:00 pm ET. "The ad is expected to be a video montage of typical people talking about the challenges they face, with Obama explaining how he can help. A campaign adviser said the taped ad will feature a live cut-in to Obama, who is scheduled to be at a rally in Florida at the time." Obama also sits down with ABC's Charlie Gibson, Comedy Central's Jon Stewart, appears at a rally with Bill Clinton, then tomorrow, is interviewed by NBC's Brian Williams and MSNBC's Rachel Maddow. New York Times gets a sneak peak. Obama “will use his prime-time half-hour infomercial … to make what is effectively a closing argument to a national audience of millions. At times he will speak directly into the camera about his 20-month campaign, at others he will highlight everyday voters, their everyday troubles, and his plans to address them. Mr. Obama’s campaign agreed to provide The New York Times with a minute-long trailer for the 30-minute program, which is to run on four broadcast networks at 8 p.m. It will be the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate has bought network time, in prime time, for a prolonged campaign commercial.”
And as far as the commercial delaying the World Series, as McCain and the GOP have contended: “Fox executives have said that they, and not the Obama campaign, had initially asked Major League Baseball to move the start of Wednesday’s game to 8:35 p.m. from 8:20, to make way for his infomercial. But as it turns out, such a delay was not necessary anyway; none of the World Series games has started before 8:30, and two started after 8:35.”
Politico wonders if the infomercial is overkill. “Republican political strategist Alex Castellanos says that it might. But even his advice is to go for it. ‘It’s like football,’ says Castellanos. ‘People may complain that a team is running up the score, but that team is still the one that wins.’ The Obama campaign scoffs at the idea that the infomercial is more luxury than necessity. This is, after all, a campaign scarred by its stunningly lopsided loss in the New Hampshire primary after polls had shown double-digit leads.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes that, win or lose on Tuesday, many conservative see Palin as the future of the GOP. “Matthew Dowd, a former Bush strategist, said Ms. Palin’s challenge was to show substance. ‘She’s an attractive woman who can give a great speech, but the American public doesn’t view her much beyond that,’ Mr. Dowd said. ‘She’s vastly unpopular among moderate and independent voters, and while she could be in a position to be popular among an increasingly smaller Republican Party, she’s got to figure out a way to extend that and figure out a way to strengthen her weaknesses.”
Perhaps this is why Palin gives a policy speech on energy today in Toledo, OH.
Speaking of the future of the GOP, Politico's Martin has the scoop on a secret meeting already set by some conservatives just a few days after the election.
It's official: The CW is moving toward assuming that John McCain is now a drag on the GOP. But is it really McCain or Bush? It's not like Senate Dem candidates are running against McCain, right?
The Alaska GOP is still pushing Ted Stevens' re-election bid.
The RNC tapped a line of credit to help troubled senate incumbents. Some money went directly to the NRSC, and some went directly to the campaigns. "Of the endangered Republican seats, Duncan said the RNC was especially watching contests Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon and North Carolina."
And the AP looks at possible successors for whoever wins the White House. For Obama, "One strong contender is Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who is close to Obama and would inherit Obama's position as the only black member of the Senate. Two other black candidates are state Senate President Emil Jones and Secretary of State Jesse White" -- though both are in their 70s. "Other state officials mentioned as candidates are Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes. Both are possible challengers to Blagojevich in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, so the governor could narrow the field of rivals by sending one off to Washington. Rep. Jan Schakowsky also expressed interest this year in replacing Obama."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Savannah Guthrie Palin will cast her vote in the presidential election from her hometown of Wasilla before flying to Phoenix to join McCain for Election Night, according to a campaign official.
"Gov. Palin will return to Anchorage next Monday evening," McCain-Palin spokeswoman Meghan Stapleton said. "She will vote Tuesday morning in Wasilla before departing for Phoenix to join Sen. McCain for election night. ... Gov. Palin is very excited to return home to vote. Gov. Palin launched her public service career from Wasilla, and she will return there to cast her vote."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
CHESTER, Pa. -- A jean-clad
Obama , speaking on a rainy, windy day outside Philadelphia, told the crowd
McCain was “riding shotgun” with President
Bush when it came to economic policies that have hurt working people.
The roughly 27-minute remarks, delivered to an estimated crowd of 9,000 people on a college campus in Delaware County, who cheered as they huddled under umbrellas, was largely a repeat of the speeches the senator gave yesterday in Canton, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, part of what his campaign has called his “closing argument.” In it he continued to portray his rival as someone who is out of touch with middle class concerns and whose tax proposals would favor big companies and the wealthy.
“John McCain’s ridden shotgun as George Bush has driven our economy toward a cliff, and now he wants to take the wheel and step on the gas,” he said. “When it comes to the issue of taxes, saying that John McCain is running for a third Bush term isn’t being fair to George Bush. He’s proposing $300 billion in new tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and the biggest corporations. That’s something not even George Bush proposed.”
He said even Bush had not proposed giving $700,000 in additional tax cuts to the average Fortune 500 CEO and he argued that only McCain had a plan that could eventually raise taxes on middle class families, citing the Republican’s plan to tax the health care benefits that companies provide.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Biden is picking up the pace. Not only is he fitting more public events onto his schedule each day, but his stump speech has been cut in half, now ranging just over 15 minutes long.
That was the case again this morning at the Dancing Horses Farm, where Biden again breezed through his remarks on a day that was chilly by Florida standards.
“It’s great to be here with you all, and in a county that’s produced a Triple Crown winner, Affirmed,” Biden said. “I think Florida is going to produce another winner here again, because how you go goes the nation in all probability.”
Appearing in Marion County, Biden acknowledged that “an awful lot of folks in this area put their faith in
George Bush .” In 2004, the president carried the county by double digits. “But just as many of those people who put their faith in the Bush policies know that those policies have not worked for Ocala. And we cannot afford four more years of the same policies they took a shot on four years ago, ladies and gentlemen,” he said.
Biden’s quick speech included only a brief summary of the
Obama -Biden tax plan, one
McCain questioned today because of comments made in a local interview yesterday.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger and NBC's Savannah Guthrie Palin will deliver a policy speech tomorrow morning in Toledo on "the need for energy security" and will link the issue to curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, according to a campaign adviser.
This news comes after the Republican vice presidential candidate told Sallai Meridor, Israel's ambassador to the United States, that she was committed to ending Iran's nuclear ambitions through energy policy and international relations as vice president, aides said.
Palin has not addressed international affairs at length on the campaign trail -- beyond supporting American efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. She met with several foreign leaders during the United Nations General Assembly last month.
In contrast, Palin has made energy independence one of her signature issues, and has said she would focus on it as vice president. Palin, like McCain , has suggested the United States imports oil from "countries that don't like us" and favors a transition to more domestic sources of energy. Doing so would help build pressure on Iran to end its nuclear program, aides said.
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli McCain campaign is jumping all over Biden's interview yesterday with a Scranton TV affiliate , in which Biden said that people making under $150,000 per year would get a tax cut under Obama's tax plan.
McCain even mentioned it during his speech today in Pennsylvania, noting all the different numbers Obama and his campaign are citing on the tax issue. “Sen. Obama has made a lot of promises," the Arizona senator said in remarks his campaign passed around to reporters. "First, he said people making less than 250,000 dollars would benefit from his plan. Then this weekend, he announced in an ad that if you're a family making less than 200,000 dollars you'll benefit. But yesterday, right here in Pennsylvania, Sen, Biden said tax relief should only go to 'middle class people -- people making under 150,000 dollars a year.' It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won't be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just 42,000 dollars a year should get a tax increase. We can't let that happen.”
Video: John McCain slams Barack Obama's plans to "spread the wealth," raise taxes and limit opportunities rather than create new wealth for Americans, and make everyone successful. Biden aides say his comments were actually consistent with Obama's tax plan -- people under $150,000 get a cut, and people making up to $250,000 stay the same.
Indeed, here's what Obama said at the Saddleback forum in August: "What I can say is under the approach I'm taking, if you make $150,000 or less, you will see a tax cut. If you're making $250,000 a year or more, you're going to see a modest increase." ***CLARIFICATION ***
*** UPDATE ***
Per the Tax Policy Center, here is how Obama's tax plan breaks down for individuals:
From NBC's Pete Williams and Mark Murray Palin today called on the senior Republican in her state to quit.
In an interview with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo, Palin said that Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens should step down in light of his conviction yesterday on federal charges. That is a change from yesterday, when Palin didn't exactly call for him to resign. "I'm confident that Sen. Stevens ... will do the right thing for the state of Alaska," she said.
Video: Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin chastises Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens following his conviction on seven counts of corruption. McCain , also interviewed by Bartiromo, said he agreed that Stevens should resign. And his campaign put out a statement from McCain at about the same time the interview was going on, calling for Stevens to leave the Senate. "It is clear that Sen. Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down," the statement read. "I hope that my colleagues in the Senate will be spurred by these events to redouble their efforts to end this kind of corruption once and for all."
By the way, in an interview this morning with MSNBC's David Shuster, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said that McCain and Palin wouldn't vote for Stevens -- if they were Alaska voters. "They’ve been quite clear in their contempt for his behavior," Bounds said. "I don't expect they would cast their ballot for Ted Stevens if they were Alaska voters."
But Palin is an Alaska voter. Does that mean she won't be voting for Stevens and will instead vote for Stevens' Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich ?
Bounds, in an email response to First Read, said: "She called for him to step down in an interview this morning. I think I’m safe."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann Another punch in the gut: For the GOP, yesterday must have felt like déjà vu all over again. The guilty verdict in Sen. Ted Stevens’ trial -- just one week before Election Day -- was yet another stomach-punch to the GOP, and it was reminiscent of how things went for the GOP in late 2006, when everything seemed to go wrong. The first sitting senator in nearly 30 years to be convicted just so happens to be a Republican. And with everything else seeming to go wrong for the party right now, the Stevens news is like kicking a wounded dog; it just further tarnishes the GOP brand.
Video: U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, is vowing to appeal his conviction on all counts for failing to report valuable gifts and favors. NBC’s Pete Williams reports. By the way, it’s worth pointing out the two very different statements that Alaska’s other top Republican politicians -- Sarah Palin and Sen. Lisa Murkowski -- released yesterday regarding the Stevens verdict. Palin called on Stevens “to do the right thing,” saying: "The verdict shines a light though on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight." On the other hand, Murkowski stood by Stevens. “Sen. Stevens has announced that he will appeal the verdict. I look forward to having justice served. Ted has asked for Alaskans and his Senate colleagues to stand with him as he pursues his legal rights. He stood with Alaskans for 40 years, and I plan to continue to stand with him.” Just curious: Has Palin voted? If not, who will she vote for in the Senate race? And is she supporting Don Young in the House race?
*** End of an era: Stevens' guilty verdict not only all but ended the career of the Senate's longest-serving Republican; it also signaled the end of an era for Senate Republicans. Think about it -- next year, we could see a Senate where there is no Trent Lott (already retired), Pete Domenici (retiring), John Warner (retiring), Stevens (who will most likely lose next week), and possibly Mitch McConnell (who's in the fight of his political life down in Kentucky). And nevermind the possibility that the GOP Senate caucus won't have a Dole, either. That is A LOT of Republican seniority and institutional knowledge that will/might not be there when the next Congress reconvenes. Of course, it also opens the door for a new generation of GOP senators. Thune? Corker? Burr? DeMint? Kyl? The last time we saw this kind of seniority sea change in the Senate was in 1980, when the Democrats lost lions like Bayh, Church, Culver, and McGovern.
*** (Big) Sky’s the limit? A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls shows Obama leading by 11 points in New Hampshire (50%-39%), Obama and McCain tied in North Carolina (47%-47%), and McCain only up four in Montana (48%-44%). This Montana poll, in fact, comes just as we’ve learned that the Republican National Committee’s independent expenditure arm will begin advertising there tomorrow. That’s right, folks -- Montana is still in play, and the race there could even be closer than the poll suggests when 1) popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is at the top of the ticket; 2) Sen. Max Baucus (D) is cruising to re-election; and 3) the state GOP there is in a mess.
*** Speaking of the map: While there is going to be a lot of deserved focus on Obama's ability to add to new states to the battleground, it is noteworthy that in this last week, one state is first among equals in the campaign's focus -- and that's an old reliable battleground state: Florida. The Obama campaign is flooding the state with candidate and surrogate visits. The first Obama-Bill Clinton event is set for tomorrow in Florida (and that follows an Obama-Hillary Clinton event in Florida last week). Joe Biden was there yesterday; Obama will be there for two days this week; Caroline Kennedy was there yesterday. It's clearly the state the Obama campaign sees as the McCain backbreaker. The electoral map message an Obama victory in Florida would send shivers down Republican spines. The Democrats already have a big state advantage with CA, NY, IL, PA, MI, and NJ. Add FL and what big states do the Republicans have left to count on besides TX? Republicans better hope this is a one-time phenomenon. But over the last decade, the trend has been in favor of the Democrats in the growth states. That's a flip from the decade before, when it was the GOP that was showing strength in the growth states.
*** The night the lights went out in Georgia? With seven days until Election Day, we’re going to profile a Senate race a day that you should keep your eye on. Today’s installment: Georgia. The fact that Democrats are daring to covet the seat once held by war veteran Max Cleland (D) and venerated nuke czar Sam Nunn (D) speaks volumes about how the political environment has changed since Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) unseated Cleland in 2002. The DSCC recently started pumping major dollars into the race, hoping to propel former state Rep. Jim Martin to a once-fantastical victory over the well-funded Chambliss. Most of the movement in the race’s slowly-but-surely closing poll numbers has more to do with anti-Bush sentiment and anxiety over the economy than with any action by either campaign. Still, Democrats relish the idea of a knife-fight with Chambliss, who successfully ousted Cleland, a triple amputee, by airing ads that slammed his Senate voting record as weak on national security. A recent NBC/Mason-Dixon poll had Chambliss up six points, 45%-39%.
*** Georgia on our minds: If Martin wins, he'll have Obama to thank because the surge in African-American turnout is clearly benefiting the Democrat. By the way, Georgia could be the state that is the final race called in the country. Why? The state has that quirky runoff law, and a third-party candidate in the race might hold one of the major party candidates under 50%. The last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff was the last time the country elected a new Democratic president: 1992, when the election of Clinton ended up helping the Republicans pull the Senate upset (Paul Coverdell defeated Wyche Fowler). This time, however, Republicans fear that an Obama victory will only energize African Americans in the runoff and make Chambliss' path to victory even more difficult.
*** Taking the (ballot) initiative: We’re also going to take a look at some of the more interesting ballot propositions. Today’s focus: the definition of “personhood” in Colorado. Voters there will be asked whether or not the “personhood” of a human being begins at the moment of fertilization. Backers insist that the measure is not intended to spur an unraveling of abortion rights, while opponents say that granting an embryo constitutional rights is a radical move that would knock individual and states rights down in a legal Domino effect. But despite a lot of buzz, opponents of Amendment 48 aren't sweating too much; polling shows that the state's voters will vote no, perhaps by as much as a 2-1 ratio.
*** Fun fact of the day: With Montana in the news today, it's worth noting that only twice since 1948 has a Democrat won the state -- in 1964 (when only six states voted against LBJ) and 1992 (when Ross Perot got 26% of the vote and Bill Clinton wound up beating George H.W. Bush 38%-35%). Kerry got 39% of the vote in Montana in 2004.
*** On the trail: McCain and Palin, in Pennsylvania, attend joint rallies in Hershey and Quakertown before heading on separate paths -- McCain to Fayetteville, NC and Palin to Shippensburg, PA. Obama stumps in Chester, PA, Harrisonburg, VA, and Norfolk, VA. Biden, in Florida, hits rallies in Ocala and Melbourne. Michelle Obama holds a rally in Las Vegas, NM. And Hillary Clinton campaigns for Obama in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 7 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails. 866ourvote.org .
The Washington Post writes, “Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, one of Congress's most powerful Republicans, was convicted yesterday of lying on financial disclosure forms to conceal his receipt of gifts and expensive renovations to his house, just eight days before he faces voters in a tight reelection contest. The 84-year-old lawmaker, the first sitting U.S. senator to go on trial in more than two decades, sat quietly as a jury foreman in federal court read the verdict after less than a day of deliberations: guilty on seven felony counts, each with a maximum penalty of five years in prison. The senator, who probably will face a less severe penalty under federal sentencing guidelines, left the courtroom without answering reporters' questions.”
Stevens released a statement saying that he would appeal the verdict and would maintain his re-election bid. “I am obviously disappointed in the verdict but not surprised given the repeated instances of prosecutorial misconduct in this case. The prosecutors had to report themselves to the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility during the trial for ethical violations. Exculpatory evidence was hidden from my lawyers. A witness was kept from us and then sent back to Alaska. The Government lawyers allowed evidence to be introduced that they knew was false. I will fight this unjust verdict with every ounce of energy I have.”
More: “I am innocent. This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate.”
USA Today adds, The verdict comes about a week before Alaska's voters will decide whether to re-elect the Republican senator to an eighth term and at a time when his party is fighting to stem its losses in a tough year… ‘I think it's all over,’ said Ivan Moore, an independent pollster in Alaska whose poll last week showed Stevens and his Democratic challenger, Mark Begich, virtually tied.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post notes that Obama’s and McCain’s speeches yesterday differed in tone and substance. Obama “began offering voters here and in Canton, Ohio, a ‘closing argument’ that sounded much like the opening argument he made when he began his campaign nearly two years ago. It was an expansive, lofty call that emphasized economic revival, played down partisan politics and conjured up an image of election results that could ‘change the world.’”
“Sen. John McCain, campaigning in Ohio, made clear he would appeal to pocketbook concerns and depend on a tried-and-tested tactic of portraying his Democratic rival as a tax-and-spend liberal. He touted his experience and urged voters to look past Obama's speechmaking skills.”
Speaking of contrasts, the McCain campaign has a new TV ad that compares the two candidates.
CONTINUED >>
COLORADO: "With Election Day one week from today, only about a third of the people who requested mail-in ballots in Colorado have so far returned them,” the Denver Post writes. “That figure surprises some political insiders, who thought -- more than three weeks after mail-in ballots started going out -- that the number would be higher."
FLORIDA: Trackers of potential Election Day woes beware . "More than 2,000 new Tampa Bay voters are on the state's "no match" list of unverified identities, and their votes in next week's election may not count as a result. Those people, part of more than 12,000 statewide, must cast provisional ballots unless they can quickly resolve discrepancies between their completed voter registration forms and driver license or Social Security numbers in government databases."
INDIANA: Early vote in Indiana is breaking records . "In Marion County alone, about 80,000 voters -- either through in-person voting or by mail-in absentee ballot -- are expected to vote before Election Day, nearly three times as many as in 2004." More: "Statewide, more than 286,000 Hoosiers had voted by Sunday evening. In 2004, 260,550 Hoosiers voted early."
MINNESOTA: McCain is cutting back on ad spending. "Until recently, Minnesota was one of the rare places where McCain was outspending Obama on TV ads. At his peak, McCain was spending more than $500,000 per week on commercials in the Twin Cities although Minnesota hasn't backed a GOP presidential candidate since 1972."
CONTINUED >>
By the way, it's never good when the person in charge of the Senate races for the party starts pointing fingers at the top of the ticket before the election even takes place. "Ensign said there is a 'fair possibility' that Democrats could gain 60 seats in the Senate. 'There's no question the top of the ticket is affecting our Senate races and it’s making it a lot more difficult,' Ensign
said on MSNBC . 'It’s a fairly toxic atmosphere out there with the financial crisis for Republicans.'"
The Los Angeles Times notes the lack of access the press has had in covering Obama. “First Clinton, then John McCain made the argument that Obama is someone we don't really know. Obama's supporters counter that we have his record in the U.S. and Illinois senates, two memoirs that reveal his inner thinking and a vast trove of public speaking. Ironically, those of us who were sent out to take his measure in person can't offer much help in answering who he is, or if he is ready. The barriers set in place between us and him were just too great.”
The New York Times profiles Michelle Obama. “While some of Senator Barack Obama’s advisers once viewed Mrs. Obama as an unpredictable force who sometimes spoke her mind a little too much, she is now regarded within the campaign as a disciplined and effective advocate for her husband. She has also, advisers believe, gone a long way toward addressing her greatest unstated challenge: making more voters comfortable with the idea of a black first lady.”
Meanwhile, the Chicago Sun-Times profiles Obama adviser and hoops pal Eric Whitaker. "Five years ago, Obama, then an Illinois state senator, gave a 'glowing' reference for Whitaker to Tony Rezko, the now-convicted political fixer who helped Gov. Blagojevich find people to run state agencies. Blagojevich hired Whitaker to be the state's public health director. Obama has said that's the only time he can recall talking to Rezko -- who was a major campaign fund-raiser for him and for Blagojevich -- about getting anyone a state job." Dr. Whitaker has a master's in public health from Harvard.”
Politico’s Roger Simon asks: Is Palin prepping for a bid four years from now? “Sarah Palin may soon be free. Soon, she may not have the millstone of John McCain around her neck. And she can begin her race for president in 2012. Some are already talking about it. In careful terms. If John McCain loses next week, Sarah Palin ‘has absolutely earned a right to run in 2012,’ says Greg Mueller, who was a senior aide in the presidential campaigns of Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes. Mueller says Palin has given conservatives ‘hope’ and ‘something to believe in.’”
COLORADO: The Rocky Mountain News offers this campaign profile of the man who may be Colorado's new senator after next week, Mark Udall.
NEVADA: After winning NV-3 in 2004 54%-40%, in 2006, Jon Porter (R) escaped with a slim 48%-47% victory in 2006 over Sen. Harry Reid's former press secretary, Tessa Hafen (D). But this time around, "Democratic registration has surged," the AP writes. "Since the Republican legislator was first elected in 2002, Democrats have added 50,000 voters to their rolls in Nevada's 3rd District. The party now boasts a 30,000-voter lead over Republicans. Furthermore, many of his constituents are dissatisfied with President Bush, the Iraq war and, most recently, the implosion of a local economy that runs on tourism and development."
NORTH CAROLINA: The Raleigh News & Observer offers a primer on the Dole-Hagan race. "There has been little talk of what … Dole or her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, would do about health care, the economy or U.S. foreign policy. Instead, the race has turned into a referendum on President Bush."
From NBC's Ken Strickland Ted Stevens just released this written statement: "I am obviously disappointed in the verdict but not surprised given the repeated instances of prosecutorial misconduct in this case. The prosecutors had to report themselves to the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility during the trial for ethical violations. Exculpatory evidence was hidden from my lawyers. A witness was kept from us and then sent back to Alaska. The Government lawyers allowed evidence to be introduced that they knew was false. I will fight this unjust verdict with every ounce of energy I have."
He added, "I am innocent. This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
ROANOKE, Va. -- Calling it a sad day for her state,
Palin today called on Sen.
Ted Stevens (R) to "do the right thing," after the Alaska senator was convicted in his federal corruption trial.
After waiting more than an hour for Palin to emerge from an airport lounge and board her plane at the Richmond airport, a podium was set up in the rain. The governor disembarked from the bus and gave brief remarks, ignoring questions.
"The verdict shines a light though on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state," she said. "And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight. And that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service.
Palin said she would monitor the situation and would "take any appropriate action as needed." She called on Alaskans to respect the workings of the judicial system. "And I'm confident that Sen. Stevens, from this point on, will do the right thing for the state of Alaska," she said.
With Stevens on the ballot next week, the remaining question is whether Palin will vote for him, or has already done so by absentee ballot, which she suggested earlier this month might be how she casts her vote.
Palin ignored repeated questions on whether she would vote for Stevens as she boarded the plane.
From NBC's Pete Williams, Mike Kosnar, and Mark Murray
A jury found Alaska Sen.
Ted Stevens (R) guilty on all seven counts in his federal corruption trial. He was convicted of lying about $250,000 of gifts and renovations on his Alaska home.
Video: Alaska's Sen. Ted Stevens has been found guilty on seven counts of making false statements. NBC's Pete Williams reports. This conviction boosts the prospects of Anchorage Mayor
Mark Begich (D) defeating Stevens in next week's Senate race.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
CANTON, OH -- In a rousing speech his campaign billed as his “closing argument,”
Obama laid out the case for electing him over his rival, and returned to a theme that was a central part of his campaign during the primaries: hope.
The roughly 33-minute speech repeated well-rehearsed lines and themes from the campaign trail in recent weeks, but rather than with sharp hits on McCain -- sparked by the news of the day -- Obama spelled out the contrasts between the two candidates in more general terms, especially on tax policy.
He hailed McCain for his service -- a line that has been a part of his remarks intermittently throughout the campaign, yet that has been missing in the past few weeks -- but said he electing him would mean a continuation of the failed economic policies of George Bush .
Speaking before an audience of nearly 5,000 in a hard-hit area of a state that has suffered with one of the highest jobless rates in the nation, Obama portrayed himself as a champion of the middle class and someone who would give tax breaks to working people, not just the wealthy and big corporations, as he said McCain would.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
GREENVILLE, N.C. -- Launching his own closing argument today,
Biden compared the attacks against
Obama to those leveled in the campaigns of the nation’s greatest presidents, claiming that the “defenders of the status quo have always tried to dear down those who would change our nation for the better.”
Sharing “a little bit of history” with an audience at East Carolina University, Biden said that opponents of Thomas Jefferson claimed he “wasn’t a real Christian”; Franklin Roosevelt’s critics warned he “would destroy the American system of life”; and the unnamed “they” said that John F. Kennedy would be a “dangerous choice in difficult times.”
“Sound familiar?” Biden asked. “New ideas and new leaders are often met with new attacks, and almost always negative attacks built on lies, which are the last resort of those who have nothing new to offer. And that’s where we find ourselves. But, folks -- as a nation, as a nation, we’ve always been able to rise, throughout our history … above the destructive politics and elect the right leader at the right time for the right reasons.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
LEESBURG, Va. -- For days,
Palin has been speaking of “Tito the Builder” as another embodiment of a small business owner seeking lower taxes -- in short, another “Joe the Plumber.”
Today, Tito Munoz spoke for himself.
Munoz -- dressed in an orange reflector jacket and yellow construction hardhat filled with Republican campaign stickers -- welcomed Palin to Virginia with a message of free enterprise and hard work.
“Everything we stand for is in danger by higher taxes and less freedom,” Munoz told an enthusiastic crowd, which frequently chanted his name. “Everything we stand for is made stronger by people like you, like John McCain and Sarah Palin.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ron Allen
The nation's most senior senator,
Robert C. Byrd , looks a bit frail these days -- but he remains quite feisty. On Friday, in the heart of Charleston, WV, he sat on stage in a wheelchair, with an appropriate-sized lectern and microphone in front of him, tucked next to the main podium, as
Joe Biden made the Democratic ticket's first foray here for
Barack Obama .
Until recently, the Mountain State seemed beyond reach.
Byrd sat flanked by the state's other Democratic heavyweights, Sen.
Jay Rockefeller and Gov.
Joe Manchin , a powerful united front trying to make a strong last minute case for Obama-Biden.
Byrd's voice was muffled, at times almost lost in the PA system, and difficult to hear as he read his remarks. Manchin helped by turning the pages. Seemingly unable to summon more volume, Byrd instead repeated the candidates' names -- and others he wanted to emphasize -- numerous times, to help drive his message. A well-placed holler helped too. As in, "my friend and colleague, Barack Obama, Whoa man! Yeah! Barack Obama... showed outstanding judgment when he asked Joe Biden! Joe Biden! Joe Biden to join the ticket." Byrd praised Biden as "no child of privilege" and someone who "knows how to work hard, earn a daily bread. And beans." Byrd punched the air with a somewhat shaky fist. The crowd loved him.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann *** Obama crosses 270: After moving the battlegrounds of Colorado and Virginia from Toss-up to Lean Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee now has crossed the 270 Electoral Vote threshold in NBC’s electoral map. One week before the election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163 advantage a week ago. As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving Colorado and Virginia into Obama’s column is this: If Obama wins those two states, plus Nevada, he can still get to 270 -- even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In addition to the Colorado and Virginia changes, we have moved McCain’s home state of Arizona from Likely McCain to Lean McCain, a tip to the reality that Arizona, without McCain on the ticket, would have been a contested battleground. A new poll conducted by a Democratic group found McCain with just a four-point lead over Obama in the state, 48%-44%. This comes on the heels of private polls we have seen that show the presidential contest to be tight in Arizona. In addition, McCain's collapse in Hispanic support is contributing to this downturn here as well. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that our map reflects how things stand right now. Yet, with eight days remaining, McCain is running out of time to change the dynamics of the race.
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on a new set of polls from the battleground map and discusses the importance Colorado and Virginia have come to play as they shift from 'toss-up' to 'Obama'. Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, VA, WI (111 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH (89 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (40 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (123 votes)
*** Obama’s closer : In a speech from Canton, OH that his campaign is billing as his closing argument, Obama today will contend that his candidacy represents a change from President Bush’s economic policies and philosophy -- which he says McCain will follow. “When it comes to the economy, when it comes to the central issue of this election, the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way,” he will say, according to excerpts of the speech. What’s more, Obama will call for changing the tone in Washington. (But haven't we heard this before? Both Bush 43 and Clinton 42 promised this.) “[T]he change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics -- a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.” What's interesting here is his avoidance of mentioning the potential for unchecked Dem political power in Congress. Also, he's trying to turn the "readiness" tables on McCain by painting him as "risky" because of his shared philosophy with Bush. By the way, as for the unchecked power, did Hillary Clinton and Al Franken accidentally do the GOP a favor with the TV ad she's running for him that touts 60 Senate seats and the potential for Franken to be No. 60?
*** McCain Meets the Press : As Obama today attempts to paint McCain as an extension of Bush’s economic policies, the Arizona senator didn’t help himself much on this front when he said this on NBC’s Meet the Press : “So do [Bush and I] share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course.” McCain then added, “But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but others; and I've got the scars to prove it, including taking up, with Ted Kennedy, immigration reform, knowing full well that that was going to hurt my chances in the primaries. So I could go down a long list of issues with you.” One of those issues that McCain didn’t mention in the interview was his votes against the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts. In fact, those votes could have been McCain’s rebuttal to Obama’s charge that the Arizona senator is in lockstep with Bush on economic matters.
Video: John McCain lays out his plans to turn the economy around including cuts in spending and taxes, investment incentives, and stock market reform. Ponder this what-if: What if McCain, after clinching the GOP nomination in March, had moved to the center on economic policy, saying that now -- with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a rising national debt -- wasn’t the time to extend Bush’s tax cuts for the well-off? Or what if he picked some other economic policy to distance himself from Bush? There will be a lot of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking next week, if he loses, about how McCain spent the first four months of his general election campaign.
*** Palin as Jason Bourne? The big political intrigue over the weekend was the Politico story noting that Palin had “gone rogue” -- ignoring the McCain campaign’s advice, as well as seeming to break with McCain on a few issues (like raising Jeremiah Wright and the campaign’s decision to give up on Michigan). And then a McCain adviser said this to CNN : "She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom." Wow. Of course, tension between the running mate -- who is looking out for his/her political future -- and the principal’s campaign is nothing new. (See Edwards, John.) But what is new is how this has become public consumption before Election Day. (We didn’t really know about the Kerry-Edwards tension until after the campaign?) No doubt Palin is looking out for her political future after this campaign. The question is whether this tension ends up damaging her for 2012…
*** Still talking about the clothes? Yesterday, the McCain-Palin campaign pushed back harder on the $150,000 shopping-spree story than it did when the news first broke. Also, Palin devoted the first couple minutes of her speech in Florida to the clothes story, mentioning (among other things) that she wears a $35 wedding ring. A few questions here: What took so long? Could it be the campaign couldn't get the full story out of the RNC until this weekend? How bad is the relationship between the RNC and the McCain campaign? By the way, there still isn't a good accounting for these purchases. Will a post-election audit of the RNC's finances turn up shenanigans? How this story is still going strong this weekend is just a PR debacle... By the way, as
CNN reported, Palin mentioning her clothes yesterday wasn’t in the prepared remarks the campaign had for her yesterday.
*** Poll Watch : One reason why observers were baffled by the McCain-Palin team's time-intensive visits to the Hawkeye State this weekend (including the ironically-named Waterloo, where Meet the Press met up with McCain yesterday) ... A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Obama up 11 points in the state (51%-40%). The numbers came out alongside new polls in Georgia, where McCain is holding on to a six-point lead (49%-43%) and Missouri, where he holds a single-point advantage (46%-45%) in a state that could keep us up late next Tuesday. Also, a new Washington Post poll shows Obama leading McCain by eight points in Virginia, 52%-44%.
*** Downballot watch : Just how bad is it going to be for House Republicans? The Los Angeles Times notes a bunch of House GOPers in the Golden State who were once untargeted are now nervous. And late last week, we noticed the NRCC sent out attack press releases in three races that just shocked us --WY At-Large, IL-6, and IN-3. Trust us, if you are worried about Dick Cheney's old House seat as well as one once held by Henry Hyde, things are not going well. The chatter about a 35-seat loss for the GOP doesn't appear to be "chicken little" type rhetoric anymore. As one top Dem strategist told First Read last week, this election cycle -- more so than in 2006 -- will see quite a few Democrats elected that the DCCC basically ignored.
*** Fun fact of the day : An unfamiliar sight will greet Texas voters this year. There’s no Bush on the ballot. The last time there wasn't a Bush on the Texas ballot -- or in Texas office -- was 1976. And if you exclude ’71 to ’77, there has been a Bush on the Texas ballot or in office since ’64. Why does this matter? The Republican win in Texas will be its smallest victory since 1988, and is one of the reasons why most folks do not believe McCain can win the popular vote because he won't rack up the margins in this big state like Republicans in the past have.
*** On the trail : McCain begins his day in Ohio, holding an economic meeting in Cleveland and then a rally in Dayton before attending another rally in Pottsville, PA. Obama gives his closing-argument speech in Canton, OH and later campaigns in Pittsburgh, PA. Biden stumps in North Carolina (Greenville and Greensboro) and then in Florida (Port Richey). And Palin spends her day in Virginia, hitting Leesburg, Fredericksburg, and Salem.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 8 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails.
The
New York Times front-pages, "With optimism brimming in Democratic circles, Mr. Obama will present on Monday what aides described as a summing-up speech for his campaign in Canton, Ohio, reprising the themes he first presented in February 2007, when he began his campaign for the presidency. From here on out, Mr. Obama’s aides said, attacks on Mr. McCain will be joined by an emphasis on broader and less partisan themes, like the need to unify the country after a difficult election."
More: "McCain has settled on Pennsylvania as the one state that Democrats won in 2004 where he has a decent chance of winning, a view not shared by Mr. Obama’s advisers. But Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, are planning to spend most of their time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana, all states that Republicans had entered the campaign thinking they could bank on. Mr. McCain will stick with the message he has embraced over the last week, presenting Mr. Obama as an advocate of big government and raising taxes. His advisers say they will limit the numbers of rallies where he and Ms. Palin appear together, to cover more ground in the final days."
The Washington Post notes how Obama isn't mentioning the fact that his party could be on the verge of unprecedented political power. "Yet, in his recent speeches in early-voting states that went for President Bush four years ago, Obama never mentions a future in which Democrats run Washington. Instead, he seeks to reassure voters that what comes after Nov. 4, if he is successful, will not be a revolution but more of a reconciliation. ‘Together, we cannot fail,’ he says. ‘Not now. Not when we have a crisis to solve and an economy to save.’”
CONTINUED >>
New York Times notes, as we have, that the battleground is on Republican turf. “Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama are heading into the final week of the presidential campaign planning to spend nearly all their time in states that President Bush won last time, testimony to the increasingly dire position of Mr. McCain and his party as Election Day approaches.”
Video: With just eight days to go until the presidential election, Barack Obama and John McCain focus on some of the battleground states. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports. COLORADO: Obama drew 100,000 in Denver yesterday. The
AP said it was "so enormous and energetic that even he seemed surprised at his following… It rippled with the kind of enthusiasm found at victory rallies." Later, Obama held a rally at Colorado State and drew 45,000. "Obama's campaign is capitalizing on the scope of such rallies to get people to cast votes early, which is permitted in Colorado and more than two dozen other states. 'How many people have early-voted?' Obama said, eliciting cheers from people bundled up in fleece. 'That's what I'm talking about. No point in waiting in lines if you don't have to. You know who you're going to vote for.'"
Yet early voting after Barack Obama's huge rally in Denver did not see the huge turnout some had expected.
The Rocky Mountain News looks in-depth at the youth vote in Colorado and nationwide.
CONTINUED >>
Bill Kristol's final advice for the McCain campaign: "Time for McCain to attack — or, rather, finally to make his case. The heart of that case has to be this: reminding voters that when they elect a president, they’re not just electing a super-Treasury secretary or a higher-level head of Health and Human Services. They’re electing a commander in chief in time of war. The McCain campaign intends, I gather, to return to the commander in chief theme with an event in Florida Wednesday showcasing former secretaries of state and retired senior military officers. But why not showcase young Iraq vets instead? These young soldiers and marines can testify eloquently to the success of the surge that John McCain championed, and to the disaster and dishonor that would have followed Barack Obama’s preferred path of withdrawal."
More: "As for McCain, he needs to speak about America’s greatness and its future; about how the ingenuity and toughness of the American people will turn around this financial crisis just as the ingenuity of General Petraeus and the toughness of his fighting men and women turned around Iraq; about how America’s spirit was not undone by a terrorist attack, and will not be undone by a financial mess; about how the naysayers will once again be proved wrong; about how America will emerge from its troubles stronger than ever and will win its battles at home and abroad. McCain has a chance to close this election in a big and positive way. He has a chance to get voters to rise above the distractions and to set aside the petty aspects of the campaign. He has a chance to remind them why they have admired him, and perhaps to persuade them to vote for him on Nov. 4."
"Obama is giving what his campaign calls the 'closing argument' of his presidential bid in Ohio, where he already lost once this year, to fellow Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. 'In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope,' Obama said in prepared comments released in advance early Monday by his campaign. The longest presidential contest in history is down to just eight days, with Obama and Republican McCain dueling for the electoral riches of Ohio and Pennsylvania."
More excerpts of Obama’s speech today: “In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street. In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.”
Obama, who will delay the start of Wednesday's possible World Series Game Six for a 30-minute infomercial, might be making his most aggressive pitch through sports media, which he has used to audition as an all-American everyman before one of the few demographic groups that continue to elude him. "Obama is targeting so much sports programming because it trends very much to younger white males, which has been a reliable Republican bloc but is also very much an independent voting bloc, so they're going after McCain's strength," said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis GroupWashington Post reports.
David Axelrod is on the verge of joining the very thin ranks of successful presidential campaign architects.
Yet another ex-GOP officeholder is endorsing Obama. This one: ex-SD GOP Sen. Larry Pressler.
Bill Ayers walking the streets of NYC.
Palin decided to confront the clothes story on the campaign trail yesterday.
How did the RNC get itself into this clothes situation? From Newsweek : "The decision to greenlight the purchases was made after Palin arrived in Minneapolis for the Republican Party convention. Campaign aides quickly concluded that she lacked the necessary wardrobe for two months of intensive national campaigning. ‘She didn't have the fancy pantsuits that Hillary Clinton has,’ explained one staffer (who, like most others interviewed for this account, declined to be identified speaking about the episode). The problem was figuring out how to pay for new dresswear: the 2002 McCain-Feingold law, co-authored by the GOP candidate, tightened the rules to ban using campaign funds for personal clothing.”
“While Jeff Larson, a veteran GOP consultant who headed the party's ‘host’ committee, provided his credit card for the Palin family shopping spree, he was directed to send the bills over to the Republican National Committee (which was not covered by the clothing ban in McCain-Feingold). RNC officials were not happy about it. ‘We were explicitly directed by the campaign to pay these costs,’ said one senior RNC official who also requested anonymity. After at first declining to comment, a McCain spokeswoman said the clothes would be donated to charity after the campaign was over.”
“Palin said she was getting a bum rap. ‘If people knew how frugal we are,’ she said. She told Fox News that her ‘favorite’ store is an Anchorage consignment shop called Out of the Closet. Still, some of the disgruntled party donors said her claim of frugality was hard to square with the details in campaign spending reports, such as the $75,062 one-day tab at the Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, and $4,902 spent at Atelier New York (a high-end men's store). One veteran GOP consultant (who also requested anonymity) said the real puzzle among his peers is why Larson didn't find a way to disguise the expenses, at least until after the election. Larson declined to comment."
"Palin's signature accomplishment - a contract to build a 1,715-mile pipeline to bring natural gas from Alaska to the Lower 48 - emerged from a flawed bidding process that narrowed the field to a company with ties to her administration, an Associated Press investigation shows. ... Despite Palin's boast of a smart and fair bidding process, the investigation found that her team crafted terms that favored only a few independent pipeline companies and ultimately benefited the winner, TransCanada Corp. And contrary to the ballyhoo, there's no guarantee the pipeline will ever be built; at a minimum, any project is years away..."
"The Anchorage Daily News , Alaska's largest newspaper, endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama Sunday after declaring Gov. Sarah Palin 'too risky' to be one step away from the Oval Office." Ouch.
Bloomberg's Al Hunt has a great column on the lack of preparation both candidates have given the American people about what's coming. "Fascinating as 2008 has been, neither of these men has educated voters much on the challenges ahead. The tone and substance of the campaign are really no different than six weeks ago, while the world has changed. ‘It would have been better if one had told America about the stark realities of how difficult this is going to be,'
“In the 24-7, soundbite-driven politics of today, Goodwin and others say, this may not be possible. It's still unfortunate. Both Obama and McCain devoutly believe in public and civic service and the centrality of sacrifice to American exceptionalism. With two wars and the most severe financial crisis in three-quarters of a century, the times call for shared sacrifice. The foundations of the global economy are in tatters, a $1 trillion deficit looms and any light at the end of the Iraq and Afghanistan tunnels is dim."
ALASKA: Jury deliberations in the trial of US Sen. Ted Stevens will resume this morning at 9:30 am, with an alternate juror stepping in to take the place of another excused because of a death in the family, NBC’s Pete Williams reports.
After a hearing Sunday evening, the judge dismissed a woman juror whose father died suddenly late last week. In her place, one of the alternate jurors will take over as a regular member of the jury. This will put deliberations behind a few days, since they'll have to go back to the beginning to get the new juror up to speed.
CALIFORNIA : "California Republicans once expected to cruise to reelection in Congress are now locked in fierce battles to retain their seats, as the nation's economic crisis propels Democrats fighting for districts they have not held in a generation." There are suddenly 3-5 GOP incumbents in the Golden State who could get swept away in a big tidal wave.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Shaheen leads Sununu 49%-36% in a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll . "Democrats are also ahead in the races for governor and both House seats in the traditionally independent Granite State. The only bright news for Republicans is that former congressman Jeb Bradley is within striking distance of winning his seat back from US Representative Carol Shea Porter, who leads by 5 percentage points. The state of the presidential race in New Hampshire will be reported in tomorrow's Globe."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
KISSIMMEE, Fla. –
Palin said Sunday that
Obama “has already written his inaugural address,” going further than the facts on the table.
The New York Times
reported Saturday that Obama’s transition leader, John Podesta, drafted a sample inaugural speech in a book penned this summer. (Podesta served as an advisor earlier this year to Obama's opponent Hillary Clinton.)
Palin, speaking Sunday at the Silver Spurs Agenda, suggested that Obama had already penned the inaugural speech himself.
“Just yesterday, the New York Times reported that Barack Obama has already written his inaugural address,” she said. Earlier in the day, she told a crowd in Tampa that Obama’s “inaugural speech is already written,” perhaps a more accurate description.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
DENVER -- At his second six-figure rally in just over a week,
Obama urged his supporters to vote early and again linked his rival to
President Bush .
The campaign, citing police, said more than 100,000 people attended the event here.
Obama talked about comments McCain made on Meet the Press this morning. “Just this morning, Sen. McCain said that actually he and President Bush 'share a common philosophy.' That’s right, Colorado. I guess that was John McCain finally giving us a little straight talk -- owning up to the fact that he and George Bush actually have a whole lot in common,” he said to laughter from the crowd gathered on a chilly Sunday morning near the state capitol building. “Well, here’s the thing though: We know what the Bush-McCain philosophy looks like. It’s a philosophy that says we should give more and more to millionaires and billionaires and hope that it trickles down on everybody else.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama leading in Iowa by 11 points (51%-40%); McCain up by six points in Georgia (49%-43%), and McCain ahead by a single point in Missouri (46%-45%).
Each state poll was conducted of 625 likely voters from October 22-23, with a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger TAMPA –
Palin itemized her clothing and accessories Sunday, in an attempt to combat discussion of an overpriced wardrobe. And she even provided some personal details.
“My wedding ring, it's in Todd's pocket cause it hurts sometimes when I shake hands and it gets squished,” she said. “A $35 wedding ring from Hawaii that I bought myself … cause I always thought with my ring, it's not what it's made of, it's what it represents and 20 years later, happy to wear it.”
Palin was prompted by her introducer, Elisabeth Hasselbeck of The View , who in a self-described “sassy” preamble, said the media had become “fixated” on what she wore.
“Now, with everything going on in the world, seems a bit odd,” Hasselbeck said. “But let me tell you, this is deliberately sexist.”
Palin’s comments defending her wardrobe – which began Saturday – came after it was revealed the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 to outfit the vice presidential candidate and her family for the Republican convention. But it also seemed to confirm some media reports that Palin has been adlibbing more on the campaign trail, rejecting the advice of aides loyal to McCain. In one report a McCain source labeled Palin a “diva.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy ALBUQUERQUE, NM - Audra and Sam Kochansky decided to come to
John McCain's rally at the New Mexico state fairgrounds today "to hear what they're going to do for us." But they weren't happy with what they heard.
"More of the same," said Audra Kochansky of McCain's remarks.
"This is saber-rattling," said her husband, Sam.
Although these may sound like Democratic talking points, the married pair of nurse anesthetists are lifelong Republicans, but they consider themselves undecided in this election.
Mr. Kochansky, who describes himself as a "diehard Republican who's registered independent," says that Republicans disheartened after eight years of the Bush Administration have been left with an unsavory choice. "I'm trying to make a decision," he said. "That's not the way the Republican Party should have conducted itself."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Sarah Palin left no one wondering Saturday how she was dealing with the brisk Iowan air.
"It was nice and crisp gettin' off the airplane ... it reminded me a lot of Alaska, so I put my warm jacket on. And it is my own jacket," Palin said at a rally at Sioux City West High School. "It doesn't belong to anybody else."
Palin's quip came amid growing questions about her campaign and tensions among the traveling staff. The Politico reported Saturday that Palin had lost confidence in some of her senior aides and begun relying more on her own instincts.
The article suggested reports this week that the Republican National Committee had spent $150,000 on clothing for her and her family was a final straw.
The Palin campaign was quick to respond to the reports of friction, with campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt delivering a statement at the back of the campaign plane.
"Unnamed sources with their own agenda will say what they want, but from Gov. Palin on down, we have one agenda and that is to win on Election Day," she said.
At the rally, Palin suggested tax increases would create a society where what you thought was yours would be shared by everybody else.
"I don’t know what to think of having in my family Uncle Barney Frank or others to make decisions for me," Palin said. "I and John McCain tend to want to trust the American people with their income, their businesses, their things."
From NBC's Abby Livingston Chuck Todd on MSNBC yesterday, retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) said that despite gloomy GOP outlook, Virginia is still in play in the presidential race.
“In a year like this, in a dynamic like this, you know, the Republicans have to be worried about it," Davis said. "And it'll be close. It'll be -- just remember, [former Virginia governor] Doug Wilder had like a 13-point, 14-point lead the Sunday before the election, and won by one point. So we get into the over-polling in this.”
When asked if the McCain campaign made a mistake by not advertising in Northern Virginia, Davis said, “Well, of course they did. But they didn't have it. They had to spread it around. They made different decisions. But I think they're in now. So the last two weeks, I think it closes, and it'll be competitive.”
He gave a stark outlook for Republicans in the down ballot races.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Stamford (CT) Advocate , particularly this line:
"...Lieberman Friday continued to stand by Republican John McCain 's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate. But when asked by The Advocate if Palin is ready to be president from day one, Lieberman said 'thank God she's not going to have to be president from day one. McCain's going to be alive and well.'
He added, "Let's hope she never has to be ready because we hope McCain is elected and live out his term ," Lieberman said. "But if, God forbid, an accident occurs or something of that kind, she'll be ready. She's had executive experience. She's smart. And she will have had on-the-job training ." ...
"Some high-profile Republicans in recent weeks have publicly condemned McCain's choice of Palin as his running mate and also the tone of their nominee's campaign and its attacks on Obama 's character. Lieberman would not do either Friday and at one point scolded reporters for asking him questions about the topic." ...
"Speaking of Obama directly, Lieberman said he might vote for him as president someday in the future, but specified the Democrat is 'less prepared' than McCain. He later says if McCain loses, he'll "do everything I can to be bringing people together across party lines to support the new president so he can succeed. What's at stake for our country is just too serious."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Obama campaign is attempting to capitalize on one of the biggest football rivalries taking place between two contested swing states. While Penn State and Ohio State duke it out on the football field in Ohio on Saturday, the Obama campaign has recruited volunteers to knock on doors in the two states. They will compete for knocking on the most doors and reaching the largest amount of voters 10 days before Election Day.
*** UPDATE *** Some numbers from an Obama campaign release on what its doing in Ohio:
From NBC’s Ashley Codianni and NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones With 11 days to go, the
Obama campaign is feeling good about its position in several of the big battleground states, due to the strength of their ground operations, enthusiasm among their supporters and early voting data, Campaign Manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call this afternoon.
Plouffe confidently pointed to Obama's advantage in battleground Pennsylvania to prove that old axiom: Numbers don't lie. "If you look at cold hard numbers, in order for McCain to win Pennsylvania, he is going to have to win at least 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican vote and 60% of the independent vote," Plouffe said. "We believe McCain is losing independents by about 20 points right now in Pennsylvania, so he would need a 40 point swing."
He added that the campaign is "surprised" by McCain's campaign performance in the Granite State, "We'd thought there might be a chance he'd over-perform in New Hampshire, given his history with the voters there." Instead, the Palin pick has driven away McCain’s traditional independent base in New Hampshire, Plouffe added. CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama spent in the first 15 days of October in perspective...
OBAMA'S OCT 1-15 SPENDING = $105,599,963.76
That's more than $293,000 an hour.
It's also 49% of EVERYTHING McCain has spent the entire time he has been running for president ($216,769,840).
By contrast, McCain's Oct. 1-15 spending was $9,246,618.70 (or $26,000/hr).
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
CHARLESTON, WV – It is “crazy” of
John McCain to think he can now attack
George Bush’s policies after championing them for eight years,
Joe Biden said during the first general election appearance for Democrats in West Virginia.
“John McCain is now attacking the Bush budget and Bush fiscal policies, which he voted for I might add,” Biden said at an outdoor rally this morning. “Folks, this is as crazy as, you know, Butch Cassidy attacking the Sundance Kid. I mean, that's a team.”
Biden rattled off a greatest hits of quotes and statistics linking McCain to the unpopular president, including saying that the country “made great economic progress under the Bush administration.
“I know Halloween is coming, but John McCain as a candidate of change? Whoa!” Biden said. “He needs a costume for that. Folks. The American people aren't going to buy this. They're not going to buy this. They're too smart.”
CONTINUED >>
PITTSBURGH -- In her first policy address since joining the Republican ticket,
Sarah Palin called for parents of special needs children to use federal funding to pick the school of their choice, and she suggested that
Obama would raise taxes on federal trusts designed to pay for medical and education costs for disabled children.
VIDEO: Sarah Palin tells a Pennsylvania audience that Barack Obama's tax proposals will have "serious and harmful consequences" on families of special needs children, due to his "ideological commitment to higher taxes." “In a
McCain /Palin administration, we’re gonna put the educational choices for special needs children in the right hands, in the hands of the parents and the good responsible caretakers,” she said. “Under reforms that I will lead as vice president, the parents and caretakers of children with physical or mental disabilities will be able to send that boy or girl to the school of their choice, public or private.”
Palin also called for full federal funding of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, phasing in an additional $15 billion in funding over five years. She said funds could be found by reprioritizing the federal budget and ending earmarks.
Palin wrapped the policy proposal in a personal appeal Friday, speaking of her six month old son, Trig, who has Down Syndrome, and her nephew, Karcher, who is autistic, and placing herself as an advocate for families with children with special needs.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Fred Thompson , who makes the case for McCain and against Obama .
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray New York Times and the Washington Post , the McCain campaign argued that the GOP nominee's current standing in the national polls is similar to the position Al Gore found himself in eight years ago.
Said chief strategist Steve Schmidt, “The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000."
While that might be true in some other polls, our NBC/WSJ survey in mid-October of 2000 had Bush up three points among registered voters (45%-42%) and six points among likely voters (48%-42%). And the NBC/WSJ poll right before the election found Bush ahead by three among likely voters (47%-44%).
But our most recent poll shows Obama up 10 points among registered voters (52%-42%) and 11 points among likely voters (53%-42%).
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign's latest TV ad highlights its online tax calculator to make the case that Obama's tax plan gives middle-class Americans a larger tax cut than McCain's does.
Script: Not sure who to believe on taxes?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann Not over ‘til it’s over : Down in the polls with just 11 days left, the McCain campaign has used two of the biggest CW table-setters out there -- the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney and the Washington Post’s Dan Balz -- to argue that this race isn’t over just yet. Per Nagourney's piece, “‘The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,’ said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. ‘We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.’” And writes Balz, "McCain's advisers acknowledge that his way back is difficult, but they maintain that there is a way. It requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in Congress.” But it’s also clear that Pennsylvania has become the campaign’s do-or-die state. As one McCain official candidly tells the Politico , “We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.” The scary thing for the McCain campaign is that they could win Pennsylvania, but if they lose Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, they lose in the Electoral College, 270-268. That's just stunning. The McCain campaign could win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and still lose. This is how Obama's money and organizational advantage has made such a difference: They've rewritten the battleground just as they promised.
VIDEO: Presidential candidates Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama battle in important swing states. NBC’s David Gregory reports. ***
$12 million left? But the McCain camp is going to have to flip Pennsylvania -- and hold on to the other Bush states -- with limited funds. The
AP got its hands on campaign-finance reports for the first two weeks of October showing that McCain, as of October 15, had $25 million left of his $84.1 million in public funds. “At McCain's spending rate of $1.5 million a day, the Arizona senator likely has only $12 million to spend in the next 11 days before the Nov. 4 election.” Yet that amount is bolstered when you add the Republican National Committee’s deep wallets. By comparison, the AP notes that Obama spent more than $105 million (!!!) during the first two weeks of October, has $66 million cash on hand, and had raised about $36 million over those two weeks (about half of the pace of his September haul).
***
The blame game : But it’s not just diminishing resources and a shrinking map the McCain camp has to contend with. There’s also the blame game. This is what creates an unhealthy atmosphere inside the campaign. Folks are looking over their shoulders, and this is where the loyalists get separated from the mercenaries. The true mettle of a political strategist/consultant gets tested now when things look as dark as they do right now for McCain.
*** One last play of the experience card : The McCain campaign is up with a new TV ad that seizing on Joe Biden’s remarks from last weekend that the new president will be tested by an international crisis in his first year in office. The ad -- very similar to a Web ad he ran against Mitt Romney right before the New Hampshire primary -- features menacing pictures of terrorists, Chavez, Ahmadinejad, and tanks. “It doesn’t have to happen,” the narrator says. “Vote McCain.” As we’ve mentioned before, Biden was inartfully referring to the historical fact that new presidents have always been tested by international crises in their first years. Clinton had to deal with Somalia; Bush had to respond to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Is the McCain campaign guaranteeing to Americans that a crisis won’t occur under his watch? That's the implication. As we also noted before, it's one of the final arguments Jimmy Carter made against Reagan in 1980.
*** The Colin Powell floodgates : Three semi-notable Republicans came out for Obama yesterday, including two former very-moderate Republican governors: Arne Carlson of Minnesota and Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Neither is that surprising to those that know the politics of the two ex-governors, but to a layman’s eyes, it’s not good news for McCain. What is striking here is that these endorsements underscore how McCain somehow lost his moderate identity -- even among Republicans who seem to know him well. Seriously, these are the type of Republicans the McCain of 2000 would have counted on as his base. How did McCain end up being the nominee that was overly focused on wooing the base? How did he lose this middle-of-the-road mojo? Forget the Bush issue and the economy; McCain's inability to keep his moderate identity might be the biggest mistake bungle of the campaign.
*** Palin’s policy speech : This hasn’t necessarily been a great week for Palin. First came new polls, including our NBC/WSJ survey, suggesting that she has been a drag on the McCain ticket. And then we discovered the RNC had spent some $150,000 on clothes for the self-described hockey mom and her family. But she ends her week by delivering her first policy speech this morning in Pittsburgh. In the speech, per NBC’s Savannah Guthrie and NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger, Palin will highlight her commitment to families with special needs. More from the Chicago Tribune : “She will call for full funding of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, ‘boost funding for special-needs children from birth to age 3 and allow parents to choose whether federal money for their child is used in a public, private, religious or secular school without navigating a cumbersome administrative process.’ The plan calls for adding $15 billion a year to IDEA, which would fully fund the federal commitment to the 1975 law. That would be phased in over five years, and would be exempted from a federal government spending freeze that McCain and Palin have advocated for on the campaign trail.”
*** Another chapter in Troopergate : But the policy speech isn’t the only news Palin will make today. NBC’s Guthrie reports that Palin will be deposed today by the independent investigator working for the Alaska personnel board in the Troopergate probe. The interview will be under oath, and Todd Palin will be deposed separately. Among the campaign staff and reporters traveling with Palin yesterday was her personal attorney, Thomas Van Flein, who flew from Alaska to meet Palin and traveled on the campaign plane. Coming 11 days before the election, the depositions aren’t good timing for the campaign, which had to deal with a spate of Troopergate headlines two weeks ago, when the legislative committee issued its report on the matter and found Palin had abused her power. Less than two weeks to go and the GOP VP nominee is participating in a deposition? Seriously? This isn't bad luck for the McCain campaign, this is a self-inflicted wound. Ouch
*** More polls! New state polls in Indiana, Florida, and Michigan paint a mixed picture for McCain going into the weekend. Mason-Dixon sees him holding on to a five-point lead in Indiana, and one Florida poll shows him only down by three points. But a new Miami Herald poll has Obama's margin widening to seven points in the state. And new Michigan numbers from EPIC/MRA rub salt in McCain's Great Lakes wound. P.S. Who would have believed on May 5th that we'd be talking about Indiana polling eleven days before the general election?
*** Grabbing those coattails : Perhaps no article underscores Obama's strength right now than this Wall Street Journal piece : Down-ballot Dems are looking to grab on to a piece of Obama's perceived coattails.
*** Fun fact of the day : With McCain's battleground focus on Pennsylvania, it should be noted that no Democrat has won the White House without winning the Keystone State in 60 years. Truman did it in 1948. Dewey Wins! Pennsylvania that is, 51%-47%.
*** On the trail : McCain is in Colorado, where he hits rallies in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Durango. Obama is down in Hawaii. Biden holds rallies in Charleston, WV and Martinsville, VA. Palin begins the day with her policy speech in Pittsburgh and then hits a rally in St. Louis. And Michelle Obama campaigns in Ohio, visiting Columbus and Akron.Click here to sign up for First Read emails .
The latest New York Times/CBS poll finds Obama with a 13-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 52%-39%. “Underscoring his increasing strength in the final phase of the campaign, Mr. Obama led Mr. McCain among groups that voted for President Bush four years ago: those with incomes greater than $50,000 a year; married women; suburbanites and white Catholics. He is also competitive among white men, a group that has not voted for a Democrat over a Republican since 1972, when pollsters began surveying people after they voted.” More: “Of potential concern for Mr. Obama’s strategists, however, a third of voters surveyed say they know someone who does not support Mr. Obama because he is black.”
A GW Battleground poll shows the race close. Obama is up just 44%-42%.
A new round of Allstate/Battleground polls shows Obama leading in Minnesota (50%-40%), Pennsylvania (51%-41%), and Wisconsin (53%-40%).
Charlie Cook writes in his most recent National Journal column, “For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire’s: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it’s coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck. By every metric, Barack Obama’s presidential campaign appears headed for the upper deck.”
CONTINUED >>
"While Republicans seized on Biden's remark to raise doubts about Obama, they ignored Biden's own conclusion about Obama's response to such a foreign test: 'They're going to find out this guy's got steel in his spine,'" the AP points out. "History shows presidents of both political parties have had to cope with unexpected overseas crises within a year of taking office. Few of those events could be considered the intentional work of foreign meddlers, as Biden seemed to predict Sunday, but foreign leaders, rebel groups and others have taken advantage of crisis or misfortune to gauge the resolve of new American administrations." New York Times looks at yesterday’s back-and-forth over taxes. “As Mr. Obama headed to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother, it was unclear if Mr. McCain would temporarily let up in his criticism of his opponent, but he exercised no restraint on Thursday. All day long, his campaign plucked other “Joes” from the crucial swing counties of the Interstate 4 corridor and put them in front of microphones to echo Mr. McCain’s position that small-business owners would be unfairly taxed should Mr. Obama win the White House.”
More: “Mr. Obama spoke on Thursday to a crowd in downtown Indianapolis that the local authorities estimated at 35,000 people, and he hit Mr. McCain as supporting corporate tax cuts. ‘If Senator McCain wants to defend tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas, that’s his choice,’ Mr. Obama said at the rally at the American Legion Mall. ‘But I say, let’s end tax cuts for companies that ship American jobs overseas, and give them to companies that create good jobs right here in Indiana, in the United States of America.’”
A Politico piece noting the circular firing squad going on within the GOP contains this nugget. “Offered a chance to respond to the suggestion that the McCain campaign is awash in defeatism, a McCain official delivered a decidedly measured appraisal: ‘We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.’”
“Earlier this week, campaign manager Rick Davis complained to reporters in a conference call that reporters refuse to call out Obama for alleged shady fund-raising tactics, but in the process revealed no small amount of envy about the Democratic financial advantage. ‘Now, I'd love to have that $4 million right now to put into Pennsylvania,’ he said. ‘It'd be a good thing for our campaign. I think it's a game-changer if I can slap all of that right on Philadelphia media market. It's an expensive place. And, yet, Barack Obama gets away with raising illegitimate money and spending it.’”
Yet the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney notes that this race still isn’t over. “Even the most hearty of the McCain supporters acknowledge that it will not be easy, and there are a considerable number of Republicans who say, off the record, that the 2008 cake is baked. At this point in the campaign, Mr. McCain’s hopes of victory may rest on events over which he simply does not have control. Still, there do seem to be enough question marks hovering over this race that it is not quite time for Mr. McCain to ride his bus back to Arizona.”
“‘It’s an uphill battle,’ said Karl Rove, who was the chief strategist for President Bush going back to Mr. Bush’s first run for governor in 1994. ‘But I remember seven days out from the Texas gubernatorial race, and everybody was like, ‘It’s all over, we’re cooked!’ And we won by seven points.’”Washington Post’s Balz : "McCain's advisers acknowledge that his way back is difficult, but they maintain that there is a way. It requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in Congress. McCain plans in the closing days to focus on taxes and spending, national security, and what one adviser called ‘the perils of an Obama presidency with no checks and balances.’”
CONTINUED >>
“On a whirlwind trip back to Hawaii, Senator Barack Obama spent more than an hour visiting his ailing grandmother late Thursday and is set to return to her bedside on Friday morning after arriving here on a nine-hour flight from the Midwestern battleground of the presidential campaign,” the New York Times writes. “As soon as he arrived on the island of Oahu, Mr. Obama went to the Punahou Circle Apartments, where his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, lies gravely ill. She is to turn 86 on Sunday, but aides to Mr. Obama said doctors advised him not to delay his visit.”
Perhaps no article underscores Obama's strength right now than this: Downballot Democrats are looking to grab on to a piece of Obama's perceived coattails. The Wall Street Journal : “‘Barack Obama is 100% focused on winning the White House, because he knows the middle class can't afford to let John McCain carry out [President George W.] Bush's failed policies,’ said campaign spokesman Nick Shapiro. But Obama aides acknowledged that in the final days of the campaign, the candidate would be putting more emphasis on Democrats down-ballot, if for no other reason than those candidates have closer ties to their communities and can bring out voters for him.”
Obama spends this second to last weekend of the campaign out west -- which probably means he's making his last stops out there and spending the final week in the Rust Belt and the South.
Obama's fundraising pace has slowed, the AP writes. "Obama, the Democratic nominee, spent more than $105 million during the first two weeks of October, according to new campaign finance reports. He reported raising only $36 million for his campaign during that period, about half the fundraising pace he enjoyed in September."
“On a whirlwind trip back to Hawaii, Senator Barack Obama spent more than an hour visiting his ailing grandmother late Thursday and is set to return to her bedside on Friday morning after arriving here on a nine-hour flight from the Midwestern battleground of the presidential campaign,” the New York Times writes. “As soon as he arrived on the island of Oahu, Mr. Obama went to the Punahou Circle Apartments, where his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, lies gravely ill. She is to turn 86 on Sunday, but aides to Mr. Obama said doctors advised him not to delay his visit.”
CONTINUED >>
The AP : "Sarah Palin is blaming gender bias for the controversy over $150,000 worth of designer clothes, hairstyling and accessories the Republican Party provided for her, a newspaper reported Thursday. ‘I think Hillary Clinton was held to a different standard in her primary race,’ Palin said in an interview with the Chicago Tribune posted on the newspaper's Web site Thursday night. ‘Do you remember the conversations that took place about her, say superficial things that they don't talk about with men, her wardrobe and her hairstyles, all of that? That's a bit of that double standard.’”
(So what about the attention that John Edwards’ $400 haircut got?)
USA Today looks at Palin's state spending increases in Alaska and notes it contrasts with her fiscal conservative record.
The AP looks at the open Republican House seats that are now Democratic targets. (List here ). Boston Globe goes down the Georgia. "In Georgia, a state that President Bush won by 17 percentage points in 2004, Chambliss held such a comfortable lead at first that he did not even bother airing television commercials until a few weeks ago. But polls now show Democrat Jim Martin within the margin of error. And a strong Democratic get-out-the-vote effort, driven by an Obama organization that boasts 53 paid staff and some 5,000 volunteers, is pushing up turnout as never before. Voter registration rose 12 percent between December 2007 and September, and in heavily Democratic Atlanta this week, people waited in lines for an hour and a half to cast their votes early."NEW YORK : The New York Post’s cover: "MIIIKE! Historic vote paves the way for third term."
NORTH CAROLINA : How much does the DSCC heart Kay Hagan ? "The group has poured in more than $6.6 million, according to the Federal Election Commission. Most of the money has gone into anti-Dole ads aired in homes across the state. Dole spokesman Dan McLagan said the group has reserved enough air time to push the figure past $11 million."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Palin took one from Joe Namath's playbook Thursday night, guaranteeing a win in Pennsylvania.
Augmenting her normal ode to “Joe the Plumber,” Palin used the rally on the Beaver High School football field to acknowledge Namath, one of the area’s most famous football players, who she dubbed “Joe the Quarterback.”
“Now Joe Namath is probably a little bit before your time,” Palin said. “But do you remember though in the biggest game of his life, all the experts had Joe Namath and the Jets written off to defeat?”
Making an analogy between the New York Jets' appearance in Super Bowl III to her view of the Obama campaign, Palin noted Namath was “up against the elite team that had all the money and they were held in awe by the media.”
“And Broadway Joe replied, ‘We’re gonna win the game, I guarantee it,’” she said. “And they won. And I hope Joe won’t mind if I paraphrase him some in this state, his home state. Pennsylvania, with your help, we’re going to win this state. I guarantee it.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Biden argued this afternoon.
“It will send a very important message to the nation that we are no longer just divided blue and red. We are no longer North and South,” Biden said on the campus of Wake Forest University. “We [will] once again have a president who’s been able to reach out in a general election and unite the country going into his administration.”
Bringing the nation together is critical, the Delaware senator said, because the nation needs to move beyond the “product of this politics of division and diversion,” as evidenced by the McCain campaign’s robo-calls.
“It’s done again to appeal to the strategy of Karl Rove and company that has worked so well over the last eight years for apolitical party, but worked so badly for America,” he said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Savannah Guthrie will be deposed tomorrow by the independent investigator working for the Alaska personnel board. The interview will be under oath. Todd Palin will be deposed separately tomorrow.
Among the campaign staff and reporters traveling with Palin today was her personal attorney, Thomas Van Flein, who flew from Alaska to meet Palin, and traveled on the campaign plane this afternoon from Dayton to Pittsburgh. As evidenced by the gaps in Palin's schedule today (for "private meetings"), and the hefty white binder Van Flein carried under his arm, the lawyer is here to prep the Palins for their meeting with the personnel board investigator.
Coming 11 days before the election, the depositions are not well-timed for the campaign, which had to deal with a spate of Troopergate headlines two weeks ago, when the legislative committee issued its report on the matter. (It found Palin abused her power.)
NBC has learned that the investigator for the personnel board insisted the depositions take place now and the Palins, who, after all, initiated this investigation, were in no position to protest about the timing.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
TROY, Ohio --
Palin told voters Thursday not to dismiss her opponent’s critique of foreign policy as just a “rhetorical flourish,”
Obama did a day earlier.
“I question dismissing Joe
Biden's moment of truth telling as nothing more than a social embarrassment,” Palin said at a rally at Hobart Arena. “Sen. Obama's own running mate, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has informed us that a serious international crisis is certain if Obama is elected and that he is not ready to deal with it and America doesn't need smooth talk that glosses over that question, we need straight talk that answers it.”
Palin continued to use Biden’s remarks to suggest Obama was not ready to serve as commander in chief, but did not annunciate the scenarios she believed made him unqualified, as she had during the last two days. Instead, she utilized his expertise on foreign affairs as a way to suggest he was speaking from experience.
“Biden has warned us that Sen. Obama is not ready for the presidency, and in fact, Biden said that he would be honored to run on the ticket with McCain because that way, the country would be better off if McCain were elected,” she said. “Now at least Joe and I have found some common ground, finally.”
In a new exchange, Palin asked the audience whether they would hire McCain and her as commanders in chief.
“We will be there to work for you, the people of America,” she said. “So Ohio, will you hire us? Will you send us to Washington to shake things up and clean things up?
“Alright. It’s a deal then, we’ll take the job,” she said to applause and laughter.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
INDIANAPOLIS -- At his last campaign event before heading to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother,
Barack Obama hit his rival for proposing more tax breaks for companies that outsource U.S. jobs.
The rally here on the American Legion Mall marked Obama’s seventh trip to this red state during the general election. Obama urged the crowd of 35,000 people to vote early and noted that today is the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, an attack that killed 241 people, before going on to criticize
John McCain’s tax policy.
Video: Barack Obama outlines reforms he would undertake in healthcare and education if elected president. The senator, who noted that Indiana had lost 4,500 manufacturing jobs in September alone and that new numbers showed more and more Americans were filing for unemployment, has consistently tried to portray himself as a champion of the middle class and to argue that his opponent would continue economic policies that favor the rich.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Downballot Republicans may have grumbled a little to hear about the RNC's $150,000 subsidy of
Sarah Palin's wardrobe, but one who may have been particularly unhappy to hear the news is embattled Minnesota Republican
Norm Coleman . Coleman, who's in one of the country's tightest Senate races, has already been fighting against accusations that he's too cozy with GOP consultant and mega-insider Jeff Larson. Now, the
Atlantic's Josh Green has tied Larson's name to the cash shelled out for Palin's wardrobe. And Minnesota Democrats wasted little time drawing attention to the notion that Coleman also gets his suits from Neiman Marcus on the dime of "his special interest friends."
This new web video doesn't mention Palin or Larson specifically, but the story creates a sticky situation for a candidate trying to shake the label of a DC insider.
From NBC's Mike Memoli
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- This is one comparison
John McCain won’t mind.
As
Biden tried to tie McCain to
President Bush this morning, he slipped and referred the Republican nominee as “
John McLane ." He immediately recognized the mistake, and tried to roll with it.
“I don’t recognize him anymore. I used to know him well,” he said, before acknowledging it was “a bad joke.” The crowd laughed politely, anyway.
All kidding aside, as Biden would say, he continued on, saying that in the course of this campaign the American people have seen that there is “not one fundamental economic issue” where McCain and the president disagree.
“I know we’re not running against George Bush,” he said. “But we are running against the very economic policies John McCain is promising to continue to push forward.” And borrowing what he said was one of his mother’s expressions, he joked: “If it walks like a duck, if it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck! … John McCain and Sarah Palin are quacking like George Bush!”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
ORMOND BEACH, Fla. – After giving a hard-hitting interview to the
Washington Times yesterday in which he was stingingly critical of the Bush Administration,
McCain continued his offensive today, forcefully calling on the Treasury Department to adopt his plan to purchase distressed mortgages.
“Let’s go out and buy up the bad mortgages and give them a new mortgage at a level they can afford so you can stay in your home so if your neighbor defaults he doesn’t bring down the value of your homes with him,” McCain declared, banging on his podium. “And let's realize the American dream. I call on the administration to act now and buy up these home loan mortgages and keep people in their homes. And why isn’t the secretary of the Treasury ordering them to do that?”
In the past, McCain has expressed the opinion that this administration isn’t doing enough to address the housing crisis, but never as forcefully as today. He has never before so adamantly 'called' on the administration to act more aggressively to address the problem, but on a day when McCain is focusing on small businesses, his criticism became a bit more direct.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
Video: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the Midwest battleground polls showing huge leads for Democrat Barack Obama. *** McCain vs. Bush : Be sure not to miss McCain’s exclusive interview with the
Washington Times , in which the Arizona senator lashes out at President Bush. “Sen. John McCain on Wednesday blasted President Bush for building a mountain of debt for future generations, failing to pay for expanding Medicare and abusing executive powers, leveling his strongest criticism to date of an administration whose unpopularity may be dragging the Republican Party to the brink of a massive electoral defeat. ‘We just let things get completely out of hand,’ he said of his own party's rule in the past eight years.” A very senior GOP strategist emails Politico’s Mike Allen in response: “Lashing out at past Republican congresses instead of Pelosi and Reid, and echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters.” Oh snap.
*** So when will we see those medical records? In Brian Williams’ interview with the GOP ticket yesterday, Palin announced that she would agree to release her medical records. “If that will allow some curiosity seekers, perhaps, to have one more thing that they either check the box off that they can find something to criticize or to rest them assured over. I'm healthy, happy, I've had five kids. That’s going to be in the medical records -- never seriously ill or hurt. You'll see that in the medical records.”
*** The dangers of parachuting in: Spending part of the day with the McCain-Palin campaign for yesterday’s interview was both an enviable and unenviable task. It's always tricky to over-read exhaustion. The campaign pushed back hard on an initial impression one of us said on MSNBC -- that there was a lack of chemistry between McCain and Palin during the interview -- and cautioned us not to read too much into the campaign soup that's exhaustion, mixed with a couple of tough news days for the ticket, some bad poll numbers, a healthy skepticism of the press, a pretty tough New York Times Magazine piece, and the fact that the two candidates don't spend every day together. It was the same dynamic as you might see with Obama and Biden, except they have the luxury of having the motivation of positive news on their side, which can loosen folks up. Bottom line: The McCain campaign appears a bit tight (which is understandable given where we are in the campaign). But there is a bunker mentality that folks like us, when we parachute in, can miss. It's a good lesson for all of us: Always be cautious from over-analyzing a situation; it can be dangerous punditry.
*** One other point : This is not an easy time for the trailing campaign, as more and more outsiders begin pointing fingers and assigning blame. It's human nature to look over your shoulder and wonder what's coming next. The McCain campaign team seems to be a more cohesive bunch than Kerry’s, Gore’s or Dole’s, so the backbiting might be held to a minimum. But it doesn't make it any easier to read these pre-bituaries.
*** When politics and baseball collide : GOP strategist Craig Shirley emails First Read this thought: “If you are looking to complete the circle between 1980 and 2008, consider this: The last time the Phillies were in the World Series was … 1980, when they beat the Royals in five. Reagan himself defied history because the guideline for the 20th century was when an American League team won the series, the GOP won the presidency, and when the National League team won the Series, a Democrat won the White House.” *** UPDATE ***
*** Fun fact of the day : The end of Yale's reign, courtesy of NBC's Robert Windrem and Garrett Haake: This will be the first time in 40 years that Yale will not have one of its former students on the ballot as president or vice president. Not since Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew battled Hubert H. Humphrey and Edmund Muskie in 1968 has Yale been shut out. Though Yale has had the last three presidents (and five overall), Harvard (where Obama went to law school) boasts the most presidents -- seven. And the only president to boast of degrees from both... George W. Bush. As for John McCain, per NBC's Abby Livingston, he would be only the second Naval Academy graduate to rise to commander in chief. The other was Jimmy Carter.
*** On the trail : McCain embarks on a “Joe the Plumber” bus tour across Florida. Obama holds a rally in Indianapolis before heading to Hawaii to visit his seriously ill grandmother. Biden is in North Carolina, hitting rallies in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Raleigh. And Palin holds rallies in Troy, OH and Beaver, OH.Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
A new round of
Quinnipiac polls shows Obama widening his lead in Ohio (52%-38%) and maintaining an advantage in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). Obama also bests McCain in Florida (49%-44%), but has lost some ground; the same poll had the race at 51%-43% on October 1.
CNN/Time shows McCain playing defense in four of five Bush states. Among likely voters, Obama leads in Nevada (51%-46%), North Carolina (51%-47%), Ohio (50%-46%), and Virginia (54%-44%). McCain leads in West Virginia (53%-44%).
COLORADO : "McCain, who trails Barack Obama by an average of 5 percentage points in Colorado polls, this week bought a total of $305,550 worth of ads at KUSA-Channel 9, KCNC-Channel 4 and KMGH-Channel 7, according to records. That is a 46 percent decrease from the week before and a 56 percent slide from two weeks ago." tamping down GOP margins in conservative counties. "For Biden, it was a foray into statistically unfriendly territory: in El Paso County, there are twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats. For the people in the crowd, pleased to find themselves surrounded by like-minded individuals, it was an important gesture."
CONTINUED >>
While most national surveys show Obama with a double-digit lead (or close to it), a new AP poll has Obama up just one point among likely voters, 44%-43%. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll had Obama up 49-40.
On that Rudy Giuliani robo-call that claims Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences, "'This is one of the most dishonest attacks yet from an increasingly dishonest, dishonorable campaign,' said Tom Nee, president of the National Association of Police Organizations, which supports Obama."
The AP runs through some Election Night-mare scenarios -- like a tie and the most likely problem: a clogging of the system and long lines due to record turnout.
The New York Times looks at where both McCain and Obama stand on foreign affairs.
The
Washington Times reports, “Sen. John McCain on Wednesday blasted President Bush for building a mountain of debt for future generations, failing to pay for expanding Medicare and abusing executive powers, leveling his strongest criticism to date of an administration whose unpopularity may be dragging the Republican Party to the brink of a massive electoral defeat. ‘We just let things get completely out of hand,’ he said of his own party's rule in the past eight years. In an interview with The Washington Times, Mr. McCain lashed out at a litany of Bush policies and issues that he said he would have handled differently as president, days after a poll showed that he began making up ground on Sen. Barack Obama since he emphatically sought to distance himself from Mr. Bush in the final debate.”
Politico’s Mike Allen reports, “One of the most senior Republican strategists in the land warns the McCain campaign after reading the WashTimes interview: “Lashing out at past Republican congresses instead of Pelosi and Reid, and echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters. The fact is, when you’re the party standard-bearer, you have an obligation to fight to the finish. I think they can still win. But if they don’t think that, they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign 1996, and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in electoral-college states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn’t have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races. I think you’ll find these sentiments shared by MANY of my fellow Republican strategists.” Ouch.
CONTINUED >>
Palin isn’t the only running mate who has been creating heading headaches for the principal candidate. Check out this New York Times headline: “Obama Chides Biden Over Remark About a World Crisis Testing His Presidency.”
From the story: “Senators Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. seldom see each other as they campaign for the Democratic ticket. And they talk only occasionally. But on Wednesday, Mr. Obama delivered a long-distance message to his running mate. “I think Joe sometimes engages in rhetorical flourishes,” Mr. Obama said, gently chiding the vice-presidential nominee as he sought to sweep aside a dustup Mr. Biden touched off when he predicted that a world crisis would test Mr. Obama during his first six months in office.”
"Obama yesterday sought to reinsert international affairs into a presidential campaign that for weeks has been dominated by the economic crisis, staging a high-profile meeting with foreign policy advisers and defending his running mate's comments that Obama would probably be tested by a crisis early in his presidency," the Boston Globe writes, adding, "McCain's campaign has seized on Biden's remarks to warn voters that now is not the time to elect a young president with little foreign policy experience."
The New York Times front-pages the $150,000 shopping spree for Palin -- and what it might have done to her political image. Sarah Palin’s wardrobe joined the ranks of symbolic political excess on Wednesday, alongside John McCain’s multiple houses and John Edwards’s $400 haircut, as Republicans expressed fear that weeks of tailoring Ms. Palin as an average “hockey mom” would fray amid revelations that the Republican Party outfitted her with expensive clothing from high-end stores.” More: “Republicans expressed consternation publicly and privately that the shopping sprees on her behalf, which were first reported by Politico, would compromise Ms. Palin’s standing as Senator McCain’s chief emissary to working-class voters whose salvos at the so-called cultural elite often delight audiences at Republican rallies.”
The Washington Post : “When she was first introduced to the country as his running mate in late August, Palin provided a jolt of energy to the campaign, helping McCain consolidate restive conservatives and pull even with Obama in the weeks after the GOP convention. Obama has since opened a lead in most surveys, including a lead of 11 points in the most recent Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, released Wednesday. But there is little sign that Palin has expanded her appeal beyond the GOP base, and she has been dogged by a steady of stream of politically damaging news, including the continuing investigation into her role in the firing of a state trooper in Alaska, her struggles in a series of network interviews and comments about ‘real America’ that she later apologized for. The latest controversy involves a report that the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 on makeup consultations and clothes at high-end department stores such as Neiman Marcus and Saks in New York and St. Louis.”
"As her qualifications, her understanding of the vice presidency, and even her wardrobe came under renewed scrutiny yesterday, Sarah Palin told a high- profile conservative Christian leader that she isn't discouraged by the Republican ticket's sagging poll numbers because she and running mate John McCain have always been underdogs. 'I know at the end of the day, putting this in God's hands, the right thing for America will be done at the end of the day on Nov. 4,' the GOP vice presidential nominee told James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family."
To People magazine, Palin defended how she's been portrayed. She insisted she is a "voracious reader" and that she is currently reading, "The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11." "Asked about Tina Fey's impersonation of her as somewhat ditzy and 'bubble-headed' (on 'Saturday Night Live' last weekend, Fey as Palin did her fancy beauty pageant walk during a press conference), Palin replied, 'That's funny, I play her bubble-headed too when I imitate her.'"
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann “is one of four at-risk Republican incumbents left to fend for themselves by a cash-strapped House campaign arm in the crucial final days of the campaign amid a tough political environment for the GOP," the AP writes. "The National Republican Campaign Committee has also canceled planned TV ads to help GOP Reps. Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, Tom Feeney in Florida and Joe Knollenberg in Michigan, spokeswoman Karen Hanretty confirmed."
MISSISSIPPI: Mississippi "hasn't elected a Democratic senator since John Stennis' re-election in 1982, nor has it voted for a Democratic White House candidate in seven presidential elections," the AP says. "But this year, things began to change when a Democrat won a vacant House seat in a special election and the party tagged the Senate contest as one to watch. With less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 4 election, the race between Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker and his Democratic rival, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, is a nail-biter. That's largely because of two factors: a historic economic meltdown that many blame on President Bush and record turnout expected among Mississippi's black population, 37 percent of the state, on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama."
NEW YORK: The New York Daily News : "After three furious weeks of casting about for support, Mayor Bloomberg and other officials find out Thursday if the City Council will let them seek a third term," the NY Daily News reports.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Palin may be overstating her running mate’s positions on several key social policy issues, in an effort to shore up support from Christian conservatives. She told a prominent religious conservative Monday that McCain was committed to the positions in the Republican National Committee’s platform that are more conservative than his previously stated views.
Palin told Dr. James Dobson in a radio interview, which aired today, that she believes McCain -- if elected -- will implement the Republican Party platform, which includes positions stem cells, abortion and gay marriage that are more conservative than previous positions McCain has taken.
“I do, from the bottom of my heart,” she told Dobson. "I am such a strong believer that McCain believes in those strong planks and we do have good conversations about some of the details too, about the different planks and what they represent.”
Dobson began the conversation by calling the platform the “strongest pro-life, pro-family document to come out of a political party.” More conservative than in previous elections, the Republican platform this year advocates for a constitutional amendments to ban abortion and define marriage as between a man and a woman, as well as ban on embryonic stem cell research.
But McCain doesn’t share his platform’s views on these controversial issues. While he opposes abortion rights, McCain does not favor a constitutional amendment to ban it. He also opposes the gay marriage ban. On stem cells, McCain actually supports relaxing federal restrictions on embryonic stem cell research, implemented by President Bush .
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama said he was pleased with President Bush's decision to convene an international meeting to address the global financial crisis.
He also responded to questions about his running mate Joe Biden 's recent statement that if elected, the Democrat would be "tested" by an international crisis within the first six months of his presidency.
The financial meeting -- the kind of meeting Obama said he had called for in September -- is set for mid-November, but Obama said he did not want to get ahead of himself by discussing his possible participation.
"Even though the election will have taken place and we will have a new president elect, we are still going to have one president at a time until January 20th when the new president is sworn in, so there is always a transition period – I don’t want to get too much ahead of ourselves," he said, adding that his economic team was in regular contact with Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and would continue to closely monitor the situation. "But I don’t want to make commitments at this point in terms of our participation, my participation in something before I’ve even won the election."
CONTINUED >>
NBC’s Brian Williams interviewed Palin and McCain today. Look for more on NBC’s Nightly News tonight.
In this question, Palin went on the offensive when talking about “pre-conditions,” saying Obama is ill prepared for the presidency.
BRIAN WILLIAMS: Gov. Palin, yesterday, you tied this notion of an early test to the president with this notion of preconditions, that you both have been hammering the Obama campaign on. First of all what in your mind is a pre-condition?
PALIN: You have to have some diplomatic strategy going into a meeting with someone like Ahmadinejad or Kim Jong Il, or one of these dictators that would seek to destroy America or our allies. It is so naive and so dangerous for a presidential candidate to just proclaim that they would be willing to sit down with a leader like Ahmadinejad, and just talk about the problems, the issues that are facing them, that's some ill-preparedness right there.
On another note, as noted on MSNBC’s Hardball, when Palin was asked whether she would release her medical records, she said she would -- something that seemed to be a surprise to her campaign.
Previously the campaign had said they would not release her medical records.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Palin continues to hammer away at Biden , the Delaware senator is for the most part focusing on McCain , hitting him again today for a “wait-and-see” attitude on a second stimulus package.
Biden said a second package, with the endorsement of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke , is “no longer a partisan issue,” except to McCain. He referred to the Arizona senator’s statement recently that America could not spend four more years “waiting for our luck to change,” and compared it to the statement yesterday of a McCain adviser, saying “we have to wait and see” about a second stimulus package.
“John’s still betting on luck. I’m betting on Barack Obama ,” Biden said. “How much more do we have to see? People need help now. John McCain … remains the odd man out once again, vacillating from one position to another.”
Palin has pounced on Biden’s comments this weekend about Obama likely being tested early in his administration. But Biden has not revisited the comments since then, and the campaign has declined to comment beyond an initial statement this weekend. “Not gonna chase that rabbit when we've got the bear in our sights,” spokesman David Wade said today.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama even invoked him during a press conference this morning and added a new quip to his speech at a rally here.
“I had a nice conversation the other day with Joe the Plumber,” he told an audience of nearly 20,000 people. “Joe's cool, I got no problems with Joe, all I want to do is give Joe a tax cut, but let's be clear who Sen. McCain's fighting for. He's not fighting for Joe to Plumber; he's fighting for Joe the hedge fund manager. John McCain likes to talk about Joe the Plumber but he's in cahoots with Joe the CEO.”
The rally took place in county-to-watch Henrico. Though it voted for George W. Bush in the last two elections, it has a 28% African-American population and Obama could cut into those margins. In 2004, it went for Bush 54%-46% and in 2000, 55%-43%. It marked Obama’s eighth trip to the state during the general election.
Here’s the McCain campaign’s response, from Spokesman Tucker Bounds: “Not only was he meeting with rich CEOs yesterday, it’s Barack Obama who has taken more campaign cash from ‘Joe Hedge Fund’ than any other candidate Barack Obama has taken more money from Big Oil, more money from Big Pharma, and more money from Wall Street than John McCain, and if he wins this election Obama is going to take more money from you.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Liberal blogs reported on a Giuliani robo-call (audio here ) that accuses Obama of not being for "mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers." Readers told the blogs it is making the rounds in at least Minnesota and Colorado.
A viewer calls First Read from Virginia Beach to tell us that she heard the call this afternoon also. The woman, who said she is a registered Republican voting for Obama, added that today she got a mailer paid for by the Virginia Republican Party hitting Obama for his connection to Ayers. It features menacing photos of both men, an FBI Wanted letter with Ayers' mugshot and a mug shot of Ayers with a photo of Obama next to it. (We'll post when we have the link. *** UPDATE *** Here's the mailer . )
Here's the Giuliani robo-call script:Hi, this is Rudy Giuliani, and I'm calling for John McCain and the Republican National Committee because you need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers.
It's true, I read Obama's words myself. And recently, Congressional liberals introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory prison sentences for violent criminals -- trying to give liberal judges the power to decide whether criminals are sent to jail or set free. With priorities like these, we just can't trust the inexperience and judgment of Barack Obama and his liberal allies. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866 558 5591.
In 2000 and 2004, the Election Night suspense was mostly east of the Mississippi. But it might not be so in 2008, notes Luke Russert, who writes in his latest blog that Centennial State Colorado may be the number one battleground to watch on November 4th.
"Two weeks to go in the most electrifying campaign in American history (well at least for those of us who have only been around for the last six of them), and many people have asked me the question: Who do you think is going to win? From what we see now, I believe the race will be decided in Colorado," he writes.
Read more at Luke's Off Air blog .
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
ABOVE WHITEHOUSE, OHIO -- So what happens when every passenger on a plane walks over to the seats on the left of the aisle?
Flying from Toledo to Akron Wednesday, the
Palin campaign plane flew over an
image of the Republican vice-presidential candidate carved into a cornfield. The pictures of the carving -- ironically at the Whitehouse Corn Maze -- have been all over television. But this was the first chance Palin and those traveling with her could see it from overhead.
But apparently not everyone got a good look -- despite an announcement from the captain -- so the plane circled back around and we got a second viewing.
The second one was indeed a better, and longer, look at Palin’s head, with the words “Sarah America” scripted above.
And, don’t worry, we didn’t tip over.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund, which caused a stir by launching
this ad slamming
Palin on her support for aerial wolf hunting, is back. Their newest offering, now running in Virginia and expected to expand to other battleground states, says that Palin has been"fighting efforts to protect the polar bear," allowing the species to be killed for trophies.
When the Interior Department was contemplating listing the polar bear as an endangered species, Governor Palin sued the federal government, saying that the bear population was "very, very healthy." Last month, we noted that Palin's position is at odds with McCain's ; the Arizona senator went out of his way to laud the government's concern over the plight of the polar bears, and he attributed the population's troubles, in part, to global warming.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
GOFFSTOWN, NH – After nearly a week of dedicating most of his stump speech to Joe the Plumber and
Obama’s promise to “spread the wealth around,”
McCain slightly shifted his focus today to hit Obama harder on his government spending proposals. But before he jumped to the new material, McCain couldn’t forget about Joe entirely.
“Every once in a while, my opponent gives us all a little glimpse of what an Obama presidency would be like in the real world,” McCain said. “And last week his campaign actually found itself on a detour into the real world -- in the driveway of Joe the Plumber.”
Without calling Obama’s plan socialistic himself, McCain prompted the crowd to respond as such by saying that “before government can redistribute wealth, it has to confiscate wealth from those who earned it, and whatever the right word is for that way of thinking,” to which several members of the crowd yelled what they felt the right word was: “socialism.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
In Florida, McCain holds a narrow one-point lead over Obama , 46%-45%. Earlier this month, another Mason-Dixon poll showed Obama with a two-point advantage in the Sunshine State, 48%-46%.
And in Virginia, Obama is up two points , 47%-45%; earlier this month, McCain was ahead by three in the state, 48%-45%.
The polls were conducted in each state from October 20-21, and they both have margin of errors of plus-minus 4%.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann Obama widens his lead: With 13 days to go, Obama has opened up his biggest lead over McCain in the NBC/WSJ poll, 52%-42%, which is up four points from his lead two weeks ago. This survey -- conducted after the three presidential debates and in the midst of the Colin Powell endorsement -- suggests that these events have made voters more comfortable with the idea of Obama as president. For one thing, 48% say they have confidence in Obama serving as commander in chief, which is nearly identical to the 50% who said the same of McCain. Moreover, 56% say they are either “optimistic or confident” or “satisfied and hopeful” that Obama would do a good job as president; only 44% say that of McCain. And now 55% believe that Obama shares their background and values, which isn’t far off from the 57% who believe the same about McCain. Obama never had to best McCain in these categories; he just had to meet a certain threshold with voters, which he has seemed to accomplish in our poll.
VIDEO: Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which shows Obama with his widest lead to date. ***
McCain's indie problem: If a political observer jumped into a time machine and traveled from January 2008 to today, he might be startled to see McCain's current performance among independents in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. He trails Obama here by 12 points, 49%-37%. What's striking (and ironic) is that McCain's political brand has been forged by his stature with independents -- and it's what always made him the strongest Republican to run in this cycle. Conversely, McCain is doing very well with the GOP base in the poll. He's winning handily among evangelicals, small town/rural voters, and folks in the South. Did McCain make a miscalculation by trying to please the base -- with Palin, taxes, abortion, judges -- instead of trying to win the middle? As NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) puts it, “If you don’t win the middle in America, you don’t win the election.” If there is an upside to McCain's focus on the base, it's that it may prevent any electoral landslide.
*** McCain’s Palin problem: Speaking of Palin, her numbers have plummeted in our poll. For the first time, she has a net-negative fav/unfav rating (38%-47%), the only principal to carry that distinction. What's more, 55% think she's unqualified to serve as president if the need arises, which is a troublesome number given McCain's age. (Have worries about McCain's age risen because of Palin? Seems to be the case). In fact, her qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about a McCain presidency -- ahead of continuing Bush’s policies. (Who would have ever thought that Palin would be a bigger problem for McCain than Bush would?) And while inexperience turns out to be voters’ top concern about an Obama presidency, it’s probably not helpful to the McCain camp that inexperience is now a liability for its ticket, too. If these poll numbers weren’t bad enough for Palin, now comes a Politico report noting that the RNC spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize her at high-end stores like Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue -- a story that could further add to the perception that Palin isn’t a serious candidate. The campaign released a statement last night that seemed to confirm the report: "With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it’s remarkable that we’re spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses. It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign." A few questions here from NBC's Andrea Mitchell: Did the campaign announce that she was donating to clothes to charity because there's a potential tax problem here? And is Palin permitted to accept these kinds of gifts under Alaska ethics laws?
VIDEO: The new NBC/WSJ poll shows that some voters are losing faith with McCain's running mate choice. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. ***
What happens when the GOP no longer owns the tax issue? As the McCain camp has spent the past week hammering Obama on the issues of taxes -- and now has a
new TV ad on the subject -- it’s also striking to find in the NBC/WSJ poll that Obama has a 14-point lead over McCain here (48%-34%). Our guess here is that the Obama campaign’s tough health-care attack on McCain (“McCain would tax your benefits for the first time ever, meaning higher income taxes for millions,” goes one widely aired Obama ad) has undermined the GOP’s traditional tax-and-spend attack on Democratic candidates. Here are some other interesting findings in the poll: Obama has a 30-point lead over McCain on which candidate better offers hope and optimism (53%-23%); a 20-point edge on temperament (50%-30%); and a 20-point lead in improving America’s standing in the world (51%-31%). By the way, the percentages of those thinking the country is on the right track (12%), approving Congress’ job (12%), and approving Bush’s job (27%) have all either reached or tied new lows in our NBC/WSJ poll -- which has now occurred so many times now that it’s really not news anymore.
*** McCain Meets The Press: McCain will have an opportunity to answer questions about these poll numbers -- and tons of other issues -- when he and Palin sit down for an interview with Brian Williams, which will air tonight on NBC’s Nightly News. Also, on Sunday from Iowa, McCain will appear on NBC’s Meet the Press. It will be his first appearance on the show since right before his decisive Florida primary victory.
*** Draper-ing the campaign curtains: First Read got its hands on Robert Draper’s upcoming Sunday New York Times Magazine cover story about the McCain campaign. For those following the campaign very closely, there's not a lot of news here (though the voice coach nugget and the Alaska cloak-and-dagger stuff is a great read). But what makes it feel new is how the piece is put together. It provides the framework for the CW campaign-obit, if he loses: McCain couldn’t find a reason to be president. He could never make the "why" case -- which just turns out to be a similar problem that hampered Obama's other opponent, Hillary Clinton. The other parallel between McCain and Clinton isn’t just message trouble, but also a seemingly lack of focus on simple campaign blocking and tackling. After you read this piece, ask yourself: Where's the McCain campaign’s concern about organization, about turnout, about a path to 270? Who on the campaign woke up everyday wondering, “How are we going to find the votes to beat Obama today?” Not the message, but the votes. That's been the advantage Obama had over Clinton -- and now McCain. Obama has had a two-headed David leadership monster: Axelrod on message and Plouffe worrying about the numbers. One can't succeed without the other.
*** McCain’s path to 270: So many pundits and analysts are wondering why McCain is continuing to push for Iowa and Pennsylvania, despite the daunting poll numbers in those two states. There are two reasons. First, he's run out of options. If you assume Colorado is gone and that Virginia is teetering, he has to find 270 EVs somewhere. Second, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two of the oldest states in the union, as far as the age of their populations. Both states have tons of seniors, and if McCain can turn things around again with seniors, he should see movement first in these two states. Simply put, the campaign doesn't have a lot of options; it's not worth attempting to hold states that get McCain to 250 or 260 electoral votes. The game is getting to 270, and Iowa and Pennsylvania may be his last hope at keeping a path to 270 alive.
*** Fun fact(s) of the day: A lot of attention is paid to Ohio this time of year, and with good reason: Only twice back to 1900 has the Buckeye State not picked the president> But two other states -- Missouri and Nevada -- also are bellwethers. Since 1912, Nevada has gotten it right every year -- except once when it sided with Ford over Carter in 1976 (as did the rest of the West). Missouri, however, has the longest streak of picking the president, and it has done so in every election since 1960. In fact, aside from 1956 (when Adlai Stevenson won the state by just 0.22%), Show-Me Staters voted for the winner in every election all the way back to 1904. As far as Ohio goes, no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning the state, and only two Democrats did so in the 20th Century -- Kennedy in 1960 and FDR in ’44.
*** On the trail: McCain begins his day campaigning in New Hampshire before heading to Ohio, where he holds joint rallies with Palin in Green and then Cincinnati. Obama is in Virginia, attending rallies in Richmond and Leesburg. Biden continues to campaign in Colorado. Palin, in addition to her joint events with McCain, holds a solo rally in Findlay, OH. And Michelle Obama stumps for her husband in Florida. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The Wall Street Journal on the new NBC/WSJ poll: “Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in the presidential race, with a growing number of voters saying they're now comfortable with the Democratic nominee's values, background and ability to serve as commander in chief.”
Here’s our write-up of the poll: “Obama’s current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45). In early September, after the Republican National Convention, McCain was ahead with independents and Catholics, and narrowly trailed Obama among suburban voters… [GOP pollster Neil] Newhouse adds, “Obama’s beginning to meet a threshold of acceptance among voters.”
That doesn’t appear to be the case with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll. In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.”
Meanwhile, Obama leads 52%-38% in a Pew poll , up slightly from 50%-40% a week earlier.
McCain and Palin have been hitting Obama hard for wanting to give a tax cut to those too poor to owe income taxes. But NBC’s Savannah Guthrie points out that McCain himself supported just such a tax-cutting approach earlier this year. The stimulus package overwhelmingly approved by Congress in February provided "tax rebates" -- even to those who did not owe income taxes. Individuals who earned at least $3,000 per year were eligible. McCain voted for the measure, revealing at least one instance in which the Arizona senator supported the practice he now decries on the trail.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes, “With as many as one-third of voters expected to cast their ballots before Election Day, preliminary data from several key battleground states show more Democrats than Republicans have voted early. While the information should hardly be considered predictive of how the election may turn, accounting for just a fraction of the vote, it does offer a window into the loyalties of this growing segment of the electorate. The early tabulations of party affiliations seem to bolster polling that shows Senator Barack Obama’s campaign on the electoral offensive in states that President Bush won in 2004.”
More: “Significantly more Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots at this early stage in Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico and Ohio, according to data analyzed by The New York Times… In Florida, however, Republicans appear to hold the upper hand, while in Colorado, early voting is about evenly split among Republicans and Democrats. Mr. Bush won all those states in 2004.”
COLORADO: The Denver Post offers the latest early vote count. "According to numbers provided Tuesday by the Secretary of State's office, 23,000 more Democrats have requested mail-in ballots than Republicans. Less than a month ago, in late September, Republicans in Colorado held a 30,000-voter edge in asking for mail-in ballots. Democrats also outnumbered Republicans in showing up Monday for the first day of early voting, by about 3,000 voters. But, because Republicans have turned in about 3,000 more mail-in ballots so far, the two parties are neck-and-neck in terms of turnout in the early stages of voting in the state."
The immense popularity of mail-in ballots in Colorado has a downside . "Tens of thousands of mail ballots have been delayed in reaching voters because of backlogs at election offices and printing companies."
CONTINUED >>
The McCain campaign has unveiled a new TV ad -- their first new one in about a week, we believe -- that invokes “Joe the Plumber” and hits Obama on taxes.
For the first six weeks of the general election, it seemed as if a half-day didn't go by without the release of a new McCain ad. Now, McCain's campaign is trickling them out. Boston Globe front-pages: "Now, as Senator John McCain seeks the presidency, he often says that the lessons from the Vietnam War helped shape his views on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But what is little-noted is that one of his key lessons came from what he perceived as a failure by his father. Senator McCain has excoriated the way his father failed to make public his misgivings about Nixon's Vietnamization strategy. If the older McCain and other commanders had spoken up, his son believes, it might have changed the course of the war. 'The entire senior command of the armed forces had a duty, which they shirked, to resign in protest over Washington's management of the war, knowing it to be grievously flawed,' McCain wrote years later. 'Obviously, my father was implicitly included in that indictment.'
The International Association of Fire Fighters is running a new TV ad that hits McCain on the topic of health care. It’s airing in six battleground states: Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.
"Republicans have unleashed a blistering mailing against Barack Obama that invokes the 9/11 attacks with a disturbing image of a jumbo jet and a warning that the Democrat nominee isn't 'who you think he is.' The attack flier reportedly has been landing in homes in Missouri and Virginia...."
The New York Times notes Obama’s evolution on the stump. “Once, the artist formerly known as Barack Obama, the slim, smooth-faced fellow with the close-cropped hair and the trumpet of a voice would riff on 14 varieties of hope and propel crowds higher and higher until he sent them spinning out into the night ready to change the world. Teleprompters were for the earthbound. Now this candidate, with noticeably more gray flecking his hair, is talking about ‘the changes and reforms we need.’ He goes on about ‘a new era of responsibility and accountability on Wall Street and in Washington.’ He hankers for ‘common-sense regulations to prevent a crisis like this from ever happening again.’”
NBC’s Chris Donovan reminds us that today marks exactly two years when Obama -- for the first time -- publicly stated that he was considering running for president, making headlines across the country. On NBC’s Meet the Press on October 22, 2006, the late Tim Russert showed Obama tape of his earlier comments saying he would serve out his full six-year term and not run for either president or vice president in 2008. In response, Obama acknowledged that, because of the responses he had received over the previous several months, he had thought about the possibility of running for president and that he would sit down after the 2006 midterms to consider the possibility.
The Obama campaign officially announced yesterday that its Election Night event will be held in Grant Park in Chicago.
