Battleground: The pendulum swing
Posted: Thursday, October 02, 2008 9:26 AM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under:
States
The latest New York Times/CBS poll finds Obama with a nine-point national lead over McCain, 49%-40%. “It is the first time Mr. Obama has held a statistically significant lead over Mr. McCain this year in polls conducted by CBS or joint polls by CBS and The Times.”
Obama leads in the new national AP poll, 48%-41%. That's a shift three from weeks ago, when McCain was ahead. Obama was "lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis.”
Video: New battleground state polls show Barack Obama gaining an edge over John McCain in the presidential race. Newsweek’s Richard Wolffe discusses whether the current economic crisis is the cause of the lead.COLORADO: The
Rocky Mountain News’ Sprengelmeyer looks at what's changed in Colorado since Kerry's unsuccessful flirtation in the state in 2004. "Kerry ended up losing the state to Bush, short by about 100,000 votes. But back then, the Republican voter registration advantage over Democrats was about 150,000 voters. Since then, Democrats have narrowed the gap substantially at the same time the struggling economy and Bush's unpopularity have created challenges for Republicans all over the country."
FLORIDA: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (
CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
Obama 46%, McCain 42% (Suffolk University, 600 LV)
The St. Pete Times offers this scoop: "Florida Republican leaders hastily convened a top secret meeting this week to grapple with Sen. John McCain's sagging performance in this must-win state." More: "With some grass roots organizers complaining about coordination problems with the campaign, Republican Party chairman Jim Greer gathered top officials at the state headquarters in Tallahassee on Tuesday afternoon. He swore the group to secrecy."
INDIANA: McCain 46%, Obama 45% (Research 2000 for South Bend Tribune/WSBT, 600 likely voters)
IOWA: Obama 55%, McCain 39% (Research 2000 for KCCI-TV, 600 LV)
MICHIGAN: One of Obama's scheduled stops in Michigan today illustrates his strategy of trying to tamp down Republican margins in GOP strongholds. "Kent County is hardly fertile ground for Democrats. John Kerry lost there to President Bush in 2004 by nearly 55,000 votes, a 20 percentage point margin. Bush won Kent and its seven neighboring counties by 259,000 votes -- a whopping margin, though still not enough to offset Kerry's 342,000-vote edge in Wayne County."
MINNESOTA: Obama 54%, McCain 43% (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
MISSOURI: Obama 49%, McCain 48% (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
OHIO: Black voters - especially among those in northeast part of the state - could be crucial to an Obama win in November. "An analysis of the Ohio vote and exit polls shows that if 95 percent of black voters who cast ballots in 2004 support Obama in November, he will win Ohio without a single additional vote above what Kerry received with 86 percent black support. But some Obama supporters say a larger black vote will be needed this year just to offset votes Obama won't get from some traditional Democratic voters because of race."
NEVADA: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
VIRGINIA: Obama 53%, McCain 44% (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
