First thoughts: The stakes for Palin
Posted: Thursday, October 02, 2008 9:35 AM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
ST. LOUIS -- As NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart put it during the Palin bounce, when her poll numbers were sky-high, “The faster the rise, the steeper the descent.” And given what has transpired in the past couple of weeks, including most recently Palin’s Supreme Court answer to Katie Couric, perhaps no truer words have been spoken. But if what goes up must come down, is the opposite true -- what comes down must go up? The McCain campaign certainly hopes so. And tonight’s VP debate comes at a good time for the McCain campaign, because it provides an opportunity to change the subject. Yet as we said earlier in the week, for Palin at least, the debate isn’t about moving poll numbers; it’s about saving her political future. Let’s face it: After what has happened in the past two weeks, Palin needs a solid performance against Biden to be taken seriously as a major political figure, let alone a heartbeat away from the presidency. Tonight is about one person, Sarah Palin. If for some reason the post-debate chatter isn't about Palin, then Biden had himself one bad night.
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Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what's at stake in tonight's first and only debate between vice presidential candidates Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.
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As for Biden…: While we’re certain that Palin will be the center of attention tonight, we're just as certain Biden is probably going to make a gaffe. But Biden’s gaffes -- so far -- have been eclipsed by Palin’s interview performances simply because the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman has seemed to pass a commander-in-chief threshold with voters. In fact, it’s the same reason that McCain's "Sunni-Shiite" and Zapatero gaffes didn't get as much attention as would have been the case had Obama (or Palin) had said them. Still, the chattering class' advice for Biden tonight is the same as the advice for Palin: Don't be your stereotype.
*** The skinny: Biden and Palin face off in their first -- and only (barring a challenge from say Palin for more debates?!?!) -- debate from Washington University at St. Louis beginning at 9:00 pm ET. At the 90-minute debate moderated by Gwen Ifill of PBS, the two running mates will speak from lecterns and address questions on domestic and foreign policy. Also, it won’t be as freewheeling as last week’s presidential debate: Biden and Palin will have 90 seconds to respond to questions, followed by two minutes of discussion.
*** The grown ups take charge: Last night, the Senate acted like the upper chamber and passed the financial bailout/rescue package by a bipartisan, 74-25 vote. With the House expected to take up the legislation for a second time, the question now is whether the bill has too many tax breaks, which could increase the cost of the package and possibly turn off some House Dem budget balancers. There is a chance the pork that was added to the Senate version of this bill could become grassroots fodder for some; already we've seen the New York Post and Morning Joe's gang highlight the extra $100 billion that was necessary to get this passed. Could we see another revolt in the House if this pork stuff starts angering folks again? It doesn't help Congress' image that it takes pork-barrel projects to get supposed emergency legislation passed.
Video: Newsweek’s Ricahrd Wolffe discusses the Senate’s decision to pass the $700 billion bailout bill, as well as John McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s decision to vote in favor of it.
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McCain's temperament: Two recent moments might generate more chatter about McCain's temperament. One was the "chilly" reception Obama received from McCain on the Senate floor last night. It was noticeable enough for a few media outlets to pick it up. But the second one was completely avoidable, and that was McCain’s Tuesday meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board, the video of which made the rounds yesterday. The back-and-forth between McCain and the liberal newspaper board was reminiscent of his stint on "The View" -- without the sense of humor. Combined with his decision not to acknowledge Obama much in the first debate, the three moments collectively don't paint the most gracious candidate. We've said before that we think McCain can help himself by channeling voter anger, but he can't be overly cold either.
Video: Countdown’s Keith Olbermann talks about John McCain’s ill-tempered interview with the Des Moines Register’s editorial board on Tuesday in which McCain repeatedly contradicted what he’s said in previous interviews.
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Who put this on the schedule? By the way, McCain’s old strategist, Mike Murphy, has an interesting critique of the Des Moines Register appearance. Writes Murphy on his
Time blog: “What the Hell was McCain even doing there in the first place?
1.) Obama is going to win Iowa.
2.) Editorial board meetings are usually pure trouble to begin with and result only in newspaper endorsements that persuade very few voters beyond the immediate family members of the editorial board.
3.) Within the rarified category of newspaper editorial boards, the Des Moines Register is one of the most liberal in the country. I'm rather surprised that halfway through the McCain interview they failed to switch over to Esperanto, the peace-loving language of all nations.
So, 35 days left and McCain is in Iowa? Why put McCain in the wrong state, at the wrong place? No surprise the result is the wrong message and the wrong tone.”
*** No answer yet on social security: Yesterday, two different polls showed Obama with a noticeable lead over McCain in Florida. Those numbers come after a two-week period when we've noticed an uptick in the number of Social Security attack ads Obama's been running in South Florida. Strikingly, we haven't seen any responses yet from McCain on this. The last thing McCain needs is for Obama to make inroads with older voters in Florida. There's something about Florida that might have some Republicans stubborn: They might believe that if Obama wins Florida, then it's already over -- because Florida won't be his 270th electoral vote. That said, has anyone else noticed how easily Florida has moved lately with the national polls? The state seems to be mirroring the national numbers. Perhaps the economy has hit the state hard enough that it's back to being a microcosm of the country again. Either way, how long can McCain let Obama's Florida effort -- which yesterday included Bill Clinton -- go without a serious response?
*** Strategic prepping: Speaking of Florida, that’s where Obama did his debate prep before the first debate. Now we’ve learned that Obama’s debate prep for the next showdown will take place in Asheville, NC, a state his campaign has appeared to successfully push into the Toss-up column. Any guesses where Obama will be before the third debate? Virginia? Indiana?
*** On the trail: McCain attends a women’s town hall in Denver, CO. And Obama, in Michigan for the second time in a week, holds rallies in Grand Rapids and East Lansing
Countdown to the second presidential debate: 5 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 33 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 110 days
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