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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Battleground: Dropping Michigan

Posted: Friday, October 03, 2008 9:19 AM by Domenico Montanaro

The Politico broke yesterday’s big news that McCain campaign’s was retreating from Michigan.

The Associated Press calls the McCain pullback "a major concession," and notes that local Republicans were blindsided by the call.

The Free Press offers this nugget. "McCain campaign manager Rick Davis called former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to tell him of the decision to pull out of Michigan just before Romney -- who grew up in Oakland County -- got on a conference call with reporters Thursday. Romney was holding the call with McCain strategist Doug Holtz-Eakin to raise claims that Obama's policies are no good for Michigan's struggling economy."

One of McCain's co-chairs in the state is disappointed with the decision to withdraw. "Chuck Yob, a co-chairman of McCain's Michigan effort, said the campaign's own polling showed other states as better chances than Michigan. 'I don't think it's a very good decision,' he said of Thursday's pullout. 'I think it's wrong. But they've got to pool their resources in the states where they think they can win.'"

FLORIDA: From the St. Pete Times blog: "The talk of McCain's grassroots problem in Florida is belied by the huge numbers of folks trying to get tickets to see Sarah Palin. In Pinellas, we hear more than 4,000 tickets have already been given and that's likely to double by tomorrow. In Fort Myers, all the drivers trying to get Palin tickets supposedly caused a traffic jam."   

McCain political director Mike DuHaime on Florida on yesterday's state-of-the-race conference call: "It was not a state that anyone would have considered safe throughout the election. It was one that an aggressive campaign must be waged in," DuHaime said in response to a question about new polls showing Barack Obama up by as much as 8 points. Sen. Obama has spent an incredible amount of money in Florida over time, and throughout the summer we were not on the air. We've just been aggressively on the air for three to four weeks at this point." More: By mid-September, Obama had invested about $8-million in the state. By the same time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV." 

MAINE: "The Democratic strategists may have to work especially hard to keep the Second Congressional District blue. Yesterday, Republican John McCain's campaign announced that it had begun withdrawing from Michigan, but would start committing resources to Maine, where strategists say he has been buoyed by the addition of Sarah Palin to his ticket. This is one of only two states that award electoral votes in a manner other than winner-take-all: A losing candidate statewide can still claim one of the state's four electoral college votes by winning one of the two congressional districts."

NEVADA: Is Nevada the new Michigan? "Unemployment in Nevada will jump to an average monthly rate of 8.6 percent next year and remain at that rate in 2010, state economists told the Employment Security Council on Thursday."  

NEW HAMPSHIRE: A new poll by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College has Obama up 12 points over McCain, 49%-37%.

NEW YORK: A Siena poll had showed Obama only up five points in New York a month ago. It now has him up 58%-36%.

OHIO: The Columbus Dispatch looks at central Ohio's college vote, where political passions are married with a tendency for the unpredictable.

"The Ohio Supreme Court on Thursday ordered the secretary of state to accept tens of thousands of absentee ballot applications she has rejected because of a missing check mark."  Score it as a victory for Team McCain, which sent out the applications last month.

VIRGINIA: A new Mason-Dixon survey shows McCain leading in the Old Dominion, 48%-45%.

An update on Virginia registration numbers as the deadline nears. "Nancy Rodrigues, secretary of the State Board of Elections, said 306,215 Virginians have registered, representing a 7 percent increase since the beginning of the year. A total of 4,892,034 are now registered, she said. About 273,000 new voters were registered four years ago, when President Bush carried Virginia over Democrat John Kerry by 262,000 votes. The largest percentage increase was in heavily Democratic Richmond."

WISCONSIN: A Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Obama up 49-40 in the Badger State.

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Comments

Pulling out of Michigan (at least for the most part) is a huge story.  McCain's campaign is essentially taking eggs out of one basket and spreading them around to other baskets (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc.).  The question becomes, which basket will be emptied next?  Florida's numbers have been consistently sliding for McCain...

http://thepajamapundit.com/
To much negativity! People don't want to hear that crap, in addition Obama is up in NH according to rasmussen pollsters.
This is such a good message from Michigan. I expected to be hearing more good news as the days go on.
Good for McBush!!  I guess he's running out of money and other resources!!!

OBAMA/BIDEN '08/'12

A RABID REPUBLICAN NOW FOR OBAMA!!!
Did you see on CNN yesterday that with the way states are leaning for Obama, if Obama wins Florida, he wins the election?
So funny that "Tailhook" Johnny has to bailout from Michigan.  Just proof that his campaign is coming apart at the seams and nothing will put his Humpty Dumpty campaign back together again.

The Straight Talk Titanic is slowly but surely sinking in it's own hubris after hitting the Iceberg from Alaska.  It is so gratifying to see the battleground states rebel against the Dumb and Dumber ticket.  Real Mainstream Americans want intelligent leadership and that means Obama/Biden.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
I don't see how accepting the tens of thousands of ballots that the Sec of State rejected is a victory for the McCain team.  Is this a misstatement?
Sarah Palin thinks it doesn't matter that McCain would continue Bush policy. The millions of Americans who have been impacted by Bush policy must not matter.
I guess some of those folks trying to get tickets to  see Palin in Florida want to hear her say, Golly, You-Bet-Cha and I'm a Joe Six Pack - whahoooo!  
I don't think the news is so much that the McCain camp is pulling out of Michigan as it is Michigan has pulled out of the McCain camp!
I see ALOT of McCain signs in my neighbor hood actually, kinda shocked...you would think with all the idiotic moves our Democratic Govt has lead this state to be one of the worst when it should be one of the best that the Republicans could actually do well here.....

Shocked...but I'm still voting for Palin
Don't get me wrong, as I think Obama is a great candidate and will be a great president---but the hamhanded campaigns run by his chief rivals play into his uber-competence.  First the Clinton, now the McCain, campaigns have really been laid bare not only by Obama's well-planned and executed strategy, but also by their own big old failures.  And, these failings only highlight all the more the 'change' from the 'old politics.'  Out with the old and in with the new.
After the debate last night, I would cover more ground if I were the McCain campaign by letting Sarah go!  She has shown she can do "town hall" style forums.  She certainly would be better off taking questions from the folks whose votes she is seeking than to sit in some studio waiting for some MSM person to hit her with the got you questions.  I enjoyed listening to her last night and was patiently waiting for Biden to stop talking so she could!  Don't get me wrong, I like Biden.  I just found Sarah Palin to be refreshing and new.  
Obamas plan is working like clockwork.Bomber has had to follow Obama from coast to coast and the Bomber is having to defend Bush turf Like Indiana,N Carolinia,Florida and the straight notalk express is running on fumes.I belive that Pennsylvania will be next,Follower by Ohio,see Bomber you screwed up by taking public finance,oh thats right you took out a loan againest that money and had to take it.So if you see a nearly bald ,short, white hair senior guy standing at the end of that freeway exit ramp, stop, and give the guy some love,maybe he can gut your grass,wash the windows,walk the dog.
I would be shocked if McCain loses Florida despite the poll numbers.  That is a hard State to turn and Obama has not had the oppurtunity to build a great ground game like other States because of the early primary voting/non campaigning issue.

Obama needs to hope for heavy rain in the pan handle and keep Tampa leaning his way on election day.
there duhaime goes again. He's the guy who is responsible for Giuliani losing becuase he staked it all on florida, and mccain's following this guy's advice to spend millions in maine for one electoral vote and to pull out of michigan. Incompetence revisited. I think duhaime is an undercover democrative operative.
Plop Fizz Fizz oh what a relieve it will be ..when McBushes is told by the American People to
SIT DOWN!!!!!!!!!


We need Obama/Biden even more now...
I'm not sure I agree, Pajama. Michigan was always seen as a reach for McCain, and clearly he's hitting the point where he has to focus resources.

The thing is there are only a handful of scenarios in which McCain can win, and a bunch in which Obama can win. McCain has to play out the dwindling options he has.

New Hampshire going this strongly for Obama is a surprise. Its practically McCain's home away from home. Is that one poll an outlier?

I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall at that secret Florida Republicans meeting yesterday. Does Obama really have a shot there? If so, that's huge. Obama doesn't need to win Florida, but McCain absolutely can't afford to lose it.
I guess the Rep's are finding out that you can't but anyone at the head of the party and just think we will vote.  People are loyal to AMERICA not a party!!!!
Some Maverick, huh? Surrendering to Michigan. Turning and running with his tail between his legs from a state he told that their jobs wouldn't be coming back! Ha, a REAL maverick would have stayed and fought, wouldn't he? McCain is WRONG for this country and his pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate shows his lack of good judgment for the American people.  Obama/Biden '08/'12
McCain pulls out of Michigan, and MSNBC acknowledges it, but they still show Michigan as a 'toss-up' on their electoral map. Is Tom Brokaw running the map now, too?


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