Battleground: The registration edge
Posted: Monday, October 06, 2008 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
States
The Washington Post front-pages, “As the deadline for voter registration arrives today in many states, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is poised to benefit from a wave of newcomers to the rolls in key states in numbers that far outweigh any gains made by Republicans. In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John F. Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.”
“In Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those made by Republicans; in Colorado and Nevada the ratio is 4 to 1, and in North Carolina it is 6 to 1. Even in states with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear -- of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds. Republicans acknowledge the challenge but say Obama still has to prove he can get the new voters to the polls.”
COLORADO: The newest numbers from Mason Dixon and the Denver Post show a dead heat in the Centennial State, with Obama and McCain tied at 44%-44% among registered voters. "Among unaffiliated voters, 49 percent favor Obama and 31 percent favor McCain. A whopping 9 percent in this group are going for a third party, and 11 percent of unaffiliateds are undecided … "One thing Coloradans are almost in unison on: The economy is the top concern, at 77 percent. Every other issue was below 6 percent."
FLORIDA: The Miami Herald looks at the state's vote-rich I-4 corridor. "Nearly one out of five of the state's unaffiliated voters live in this swath between Tampa and Daytona Beach, and an even higher percentage are considered '’persuadable'’ Democrats and Republicans."
Both veep candidates hit the Sunshine State this week.
INDIANA: Obama visits the state Wednesday.
GEORGIA: Here's a pretty good explanation of the potential surge in African-American
voters that's coming on E-Day, at least in Georgia. "Secretary of State Karen Handel is on record saying that there is no giant surge of voter registration in Georgia — and in the largest context, she's right. Newly released figures from her office show that 406,379 new voters registered between Jan. 1 to Sept. 30. Four years ago, the number was 371,932. Overall, that's a 9 percent increase from '04 to '08 — hardly surprising in a presidential race with no incumbent. Barack Obama or no Barack Obama.”
“But this is far from the whole story. Those same numbers show that 164,859 of those new voters are African-American. And 176,570 of those new voters are white. That's a 27 percent increase in new voter registration for African-Americans over '04, and a 13.7 percent decrease in new voter registration for whites over '04."
MICHIGAN: Some day, we're going to get the full story behind the leaking of the McCain decision to pull out of Michigan. Couldn't they have done it more quietly? Who decided not to keep this decision so quiet? Did some Michigan Republican folks believe there was a chance that by going public, they'd scare the campaign from pulling out? And then the snowball? This has been a near-P.R. disaster for the McCain campaign. What’s more, will this decision cost the GOP one to two House seats?
At least one Republican in Michigan is livid about McCain's pullback from the state. “He has given up on our State?” writes a county GOP chair in an email obtained by Politico's Jonathan Martin over the weekend. "What a total and complete crock of crap. Again, I think McCain owes the Republicans and the People of Michigan a HUGE APOLOGY. SOON!"
MINNESOTA: A new Star-Tribune poll shows a commanding lead for Obama: 55%-37%. "That's a huge difference from the last Minnesota Poll, conducted in September, which showed the race dead even, with each candidate backed by 45 percent of likely voters."
NEBRASKA: The Washington Post looks at the unlikely corner of Nebraska that's suddenly become the target of the presidential campaigns. "Where Republicans see folly, the Obama camp spots an opening. Unlike most of Nebraska, the 2nd District has a significant minority population, with a population that is 10 percent black and 6 percent Hispanic -- groups that strongly back Obama."
NEW MEXICO: Word is that Obama's once insurmountable lead, while still significant,
doesn't seem so insurmountable. Plus, it's not an expensive state. McCain's event
there Monday may be about testing to see if some McCain presence will shrink Obama's
lead further. If so, look for an increased effort in the state in the following weeks.
Speaking of… McCain trails Obama by five in New Mexico, according to a new Albuquerque Journal poll.
OHIO: A Columbus Dispatch poll has Obama up 49%-42% among likely voters. It "was conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3 by mail among 2,262 likely Ohio voters." An August Dispatch poll had Obama up 42%-41%.
Bruce Springsteen held a concert for Obama at Ohio State -- where early voting is underway.
PENNSYLVANIA: A group of students found a big advantage for Obama when they fanned out across the Philadelphia suburbs over the weekend to get a sense of the support both candidates are getting in counties like Bucks and Chester.
VIRGINIA: Politico's Martin talks to a cadre of the big players in the Virginia GOP, and finds some anxiety about the resources John McCain is -- and isn't -- putting into the state. "With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there, some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed."
McCain's brother called Northern Virginia "communist country."
