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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Battleground: More numbers

Posted: Tuesday, October 07, 2008 9:09 AM by Domenico Montanaro

A new round of CNN/Time battleground polls shows McCain up in Indiana among likely voters (51%-46%), Obama ahead in New Hampshire (53%-45%), Obama up in Ohio (50%-47%), Obama up in Wisconsin (51%-46%), and the candidates tied in North Carolina (49%-49%).

COLORADO: Per the Rocky Mountain News: "More than 100,000 Coloradans registered to vote in the past five weeks, leaving the state almost equally divided between unaffiliated, Republican and Democratic voters."  Democrats led the charge in the last month, outregistering Republicans by a margin of 2-1. 
 
In Denver, the looming registration deadline has phones ringing off the hook. "The Denver Elections office received more than 6,000 registration or mail-ballot applications from voter drives alone on Monday. More than 95,000 forms have been received in Denver since May."  It was so busy yesterday, an election clerk told the Rocky, "It sounds like Las Vegas in here." 

MICHIGAN: They've lost that lovin' feeling. Michigan Republicans are still trying to keep hope alive, after the McCain pullout that many call "disappointing" and some mutter was badly executed. But the consequences for downballot candidates could be tough.  
 
NEVADA: Was Sarah Palin really a "former union member”? The Las Vegas Sun made some calls and was left scratching its heads.

OHIO: A Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama up six points in the Buckeye State, 51%-45%. “The state's voters, long suffering from a poor economy and newly battered by the turmoil in the financial, credit and housing markets, give Obama stronger marks on handling the economy, creating jobs and dealing with tax policy. The senator from Illinois also has a big lead as the candidate more in tune with the economic problems people are confronting, a significant benefit as more than half of all voters consider the economy and jobs the campaign's top issue.”

More: “No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio, and the state's 20 electoral votes are of paramount importance to McCain. If the senator from Arizona were to win every other state that President Bush carried four years ago, but lose Ohio, he would fall four electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win the White House. Only Florida, of other major battlegrounds the Republicans won in the past two elections, looms as large as Ohio in determining the next president.”

"A weeklong period in which Ohioans could register to vote and immediately cast a ballot ended Monday with turnout that didn't quite match the expectations of election officials -- or the campaign predictions that preceded it. … The early voting window was expected to benefit Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, as his campaign and supportive advocacy groups drove members of typically Democratic constituencies -- the homeless, college students and poor people -- to the polls."

WISCONSIN: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel checks out the youth vote in Wisconsin.

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No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio, and the state's 20 electoral votes are of paramount importance to McCain. If the senator from Arizona were to win every other state that President Bush carried four years ago, but lose Ohio, he would fall four electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win the White House.
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This point is moot because McCain won't win ALL of the states that Bush won in 2004.  Guaranteed.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
This thing looks like it's heading for a blow-out!
Ron Indiana,

Hey, Ron, what's going on in Indiana? What are you hearing? We hear that it's close and that McCain is being forced to spend money when he should be able to count on Indiana. Anything we can do to help turn Indiana BLUE come November? The Obama campaign keeps sending us to Iowa; I imagine they are sending other folks to Indiana....right?    Obama/ Biden '08/'12
Famous McBush quotes " I would rather have my campaign lie through there teeth to win an Election than talk about the economy" , I have this marker right here for vetos I will  make them famous you will know their names.  Hey John one question who placed all the pork on the Bail out thing. Are you going to drop a few names???? Does Sarah Palin wear a flag pin ??? And why is Morning GOP Joke have his head so far up Sarah Palins Skirt ????
Viva la Buckeyes!!!
In a long line of brillant moves by the McInsane campaign, they have now announced plans to cut Medicare and Medicaid.

Say goodbye to Florida...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/mccain-plans-to-cut-medic_n_132169.html
Obama being up six points in Ohio is huge, but perhaps the real shocker in these numbers is the Obama-McCain tie in North Carolina.

That said, usual words of caution to follow - polls are all over the place and no single poll in any state is definitive. But the trend lines clearly are moving in Obama's favor.

It will be interesting to see the degree to which McCain's slime campaign can stall and perhaps even reverse those trend lines.
Nov 4 can't here be here soon enough.

Now that McCain has decided to go for broke, let us all take a deep breath and realize that as I have said, he lacks the temperament and the judgement to be POTUS.  

McCain has always been a crook and if you examine his so called maverick stance, it was all a gamble rather than a coherent policy stance.  Look at this below

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/07/politics/main4505539.shtml
Obama needs to keep hitting McCain hard on his "Poor Judgment" (McCain's own definition) in his role of salvaging Keating's Bank, The Lincoln Trust, and laying the burden at the feet of the Taxpayer.
McCain is a bitter, angry, desperate old man.

At a time when this country is in the worst economic mess since 1929, Mccain has no answers, solutions, ideas or plan to get the country and the economy back on track.

People are sick of his and Palin’s whining, lying and try to dredge up the past becaue they are unable to talk about the present and the furture.
McCain will lose and lose big in November becaue he has underestimated the intelligence of the vast majority of Americans.

McCain is a bitter, angry, desperate old man.

At a time when this country is in the worst economic mess since 1929, Mccain has no answers, solutions, ideas or plan to get the country and the economy back on track.

People are sick of his and Palin’s whining, lying and try to dredge up the past becaue they are unable to talk about the present and the furture.
McCain will lose and lose big in November becaue he has underestimated the intelligence of the vast majority of Americans.

My sister just closed her restaurant in Ohio.  She never made a lot of money but had a good business.  Well, I'm happy to report my republican sister is voting for Obama.  She grew up in a democratic family, I admit, but for years felt Reagan type policies were best for business.  No more.  You should see all the Obama signs and bumper stickers here in central Mo.  vote Obama/Biden
It does not surprise me at all that Obama's lead is widening in the battleground states.  Thanks to the policies of Bush/Cheney/Republican Party, for the first time in my 53 years, they have shown me the bottom of the barrel.  McCain/Palin believe that the Bush/Repubican economic policies are "fundamentally strong."  But then again, McCain owns 7 homes, 13 luxury cars, spends $750,000 per month on one credit card and Palin owns property and a private plane and bills the taxpayers for living in her own house.  I guess, unlike 95% of most Americans, for the McCains and the Palins the economy is very strong.  McCain/Palin does not know or feel most Americans economic pain.  How could they?  They both live "large" and could care less about the rest of America.  How many rich people do you know?  How many of them really give a damn about you?  There you go.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08
Let's all pray that McCain continues to run out the last few weeks of his campaign the exact same way he's done it so far.  He's been a fabulous disaster.
The polls are a snapshot of any given moment in time and do not tell what is going to happen on November 4th!

If McCain wins it will be because of FRAUD. No one will ever make me believe that when the records of McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden are even close when comparing where Obama wants to takethe country and the rantings of McCain.

One would have to be "special needs" to not see that McCain is a doddering old fool and Sarah Palin is drunk with the prospect of becoming VP/POTUS so she can't be expected to acknowledge that she is way out of her league.

God help us if McCain wins!
Those numbers from Wisconsin will be shifting even more in the next week.

The number of yard signs shifted dramatically in the last week.  It went from pretty close, to about 20-1 in favor of Obama.

People are spreading the word on McCain and Palin's repeated lies.  McCain has a fast increasing problem with seniors in Wisconsin.  They do not like his negative attacks.  Even my 90 year old mother and father in-law, who were for McCain, now say they will never vote for him.  They called McCain the dirtiest politician in their entire life.  That's saying something for someone in their 90's.
Obama just needs to stay above the fray and keep coming back to the economy nd McCain s POOR record of dealing wit economic problem and issues. The S & L crisis of the past is relevant to many who lost or had assets frozen so we remeber it.  Obama has continued to talk about ways to help the country turnaround, while McCain is out throwing the kitchen sink at Obama to change the subject.  Unfornately IT IS THE ECONOMY STUPID!!!  

McCain doesnt feel it because he doesnt live like most Americans,  he is totally unale to connect on any level with the worries of the average American.  

Obama has been there and knows all to well, he earned his way to what he has now.  I beleive he will be far better in relating to the Amercan people than McCain ever can

Suz, Wester ny Indpendent voter for Obama/Biden
Everyday shows good polls for Obama because he is the best candidate for our secular democracy.  The Straight Talk Titanic can't talk itself out of the hole it has dug itself.  We can't get any straight talk out of the Wicked Witch of Alaska, she's too chicken to do any more interviews.

Let's hope that even more battleground states turn from red to blue.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
It's a tough sell when the local board of elections doesn't even have ballots and they are telling everyone who tries to vote on copies of ballots that a committee will review their votes before they are counted.
Maybe we need a new youth movement by way of media journalism as well, because far too many of these media 'pundits' are failing us big time. We need some fresh air out there... Someone not afraid to ask the tuff questions. (My, how we miss Tim Russert) The media is so gullable, and so very easily manipulated...

I watched McOldman rant yesterday about Obama not being willing to answer questions the way every other candidate has been subject to... HELLOOOO!!! This coming from a campaign that has Tucker Bound keepin' this Palin Chick 'Tucked & Bound' ...This Palin broad isn't even accessible to answering questions. And no one in the media seems to notice that and/or is willing to call him out on that. McInsane realizes that if he simply says something the media would take whatever's said at face value. That's probably why McLame see's the American people are so simple minded.

We'll see who skates around the issues tonight when Mc4moreYearsOfTheSame get's his ass handed to him.

...And for y'all that don't know, Florida IS blue... If y'all knew what us folks down here know, it wouldn't even be a question. (We have a secret 'Fraternal' like organization down here that wants no part of the polling so as to know ourselves where we stand prior to November 4th, despite what the 'experts' say)

THIS WILL BE A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR OBAMA!!! All we Floridians are doing right now is passing the time...

Ohio, you might wanna take note. We've learned from two terms of foolish, regretful voting that allowed Bush to take the White House, consequently sending our Country to ruins. We're going to clean our hands with this administration and change the course of Our Country... WE WONT MAKE THAT SAME MISTAKE AGAIN!

{As an Old 'WISE' President once said, "Fool me once... Fool me once shame on... Shame on, Fool me... *sigh* Get fooled, ya' can't get fooled again"}.

OBAMA/BIDEN Baby- All Day, Every Day
It is no surprise that McCain has dropped this far behind Obama - and it will only get worse with news from the Wall Street Journal that reveals McCain's plan to slash Medicare benefits by $1.3 TRILLION. Wave goodbye to FL and NV, McCain campaign.

Read more about McCain's plan to cut Medicare benefits at:

http://democratictribune.com


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