What are the odds of a terrorist attack?
Posted: Tuesday, October 07, 2008 6:30 PM by Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Robert Windrem
Is this an opportune time for a terrorist attack? Could al Qaeda use the financial distress and political uncertainty to magnify its power?
U.S. intelligence officials suggest that while al Qaeda may want to be "part of the conversation" in the presidential election, there is no "specific or extraordinary" threat information, nothing to indicate that terrorists are capable of taking advantage of the current situation.
"They attack when they can, when they have an opportunity," said one intelligence official, adding that terrorists have wanted to attack the U.S., have tried and failed on several occasions since Sept. 11th, without success.
"For whatever reason, they have not seen the conditions they need to succeed," said the official.
Another official noted that they still expect to see "an uptick" in threat reporting all the way up to the Inauguration on Jan. 20, al Qaeda officials are not limited to attacks to be part of the converations.
"They certainly want to be a topic of the election campaign," said the second official, noting that they were in the 2004 election when Osama Bin Laden appeared in a video four days before the election. Sen. John Kerry has said he believes the video heightened the fear of terrorism -- and swayed enough voters to stay with President Bush.
"At a minimum, we would expect to see a message as we did in 2004 and what have seen this weekend with Adam Gadahn," said the first official, referring to a video from Gadahn, the American terrorist who criticized the US government and the newly installed government in Pakistan.
The possibility of a taped message closer to the election is not unlikely, said the first official. "Their timing was closer in 2004, and we are not outside their window."
The impact of such a video is unclear, however. In 2004, terrorism was the top issue in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll two weeks before Election Day. This time around, that is not the case. The economy has been the top issue since the beginning of the year, and in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that asked the question in late September, terrorism ranked sixth.
The second official noted that there has indeed been an increase in English language messages in recent weeks, first by al Qaeda's No 2., Ayman al Zawahiri and then Gadahn.
While some of the change can be attributed to al Qaeda's desire to stoke discontent and motivate homegrown terrorists, officials believe the real target is English speaking dissidents in Pakistan. (It's also an attempt, both note, to increase the likelihood that their message will be broadcast since they are using English. They haven't been getting a lot of airtime lately, they agree.)
The intelligence officials said al Qaeda has shown no preference for either candidate in the presidential election.
"Their hatred goes far deeper," said the first official. "It doesn't matter to them who's president."
