Obama's double-digit poll lead?

Posted: Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:19 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
So Obama's up 11 now in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll, his largest in that poll.

It's worth pointing out that The Hotline/Diageo tracking poll shows just a 1% lead for today.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Obama with a 6-point lead.

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Comments

WOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OBAMA/BIDEN 08

GOD BLESS AMERICA AND HER HARD WORKING PEOPLE!!!!!

LOVE ME SOME OBAMA!!!! (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:25 PM)

Most see Obama as our only hope to get out of this mess. McCain's negative, shameful campaign gives us great insight into how he'd run this country. Hope he never gets the chance.

"That One" (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:26 PM)

Ha Ha Ha Ha All of you Obama networks are idiots. You are trying so hard to fix this election for Obama and it's not working! It's hillarious! Maybe Chris Mathews will get another chill up his leg when Obama makes his concession speech! What a joke!

Al, Indianapolis, IN (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:28 PM)

Polls, shmolls! McCain and Palin are mavericks, they've got plans and will reform govt. and go after cronies and are mavericks! You betcha...and...ahhh...I got...nothing.

Sorry, thought I could make the case. I can't.

Steve, Minneapolis, MN (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:28 PM)

The Hotline/Deageo poll is close b/c a few days ago they adjusted their voted ID number without telling us good reasons why.

jjj (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:28 PM)

President Obama. That sounds good

Kelly, Tampa (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:29 PM)

Wow that one point lead is REALLY scary. What kind of poll is that?

Cindi in Louisiana (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:30 PM)

While you are at it, also worth noting, per Eric Kleefeld at TPM Election Central, that Hotline/Diageo changed their partisan weighting a few days ago. It "was 41% Dem to 36% GOP, but has been changed to 40% Dem and 38% GOP."

Christine, Bloomington, IN (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:32 PM)

The Republicans, with their stellar record of fixing two presidential elections in a row will have to pull out all the stops to pull this one out.

Diebold to the rescue?

All the government you deserve (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:33 PM)

The most telling thing was seeing the Republican Strategist last night saying that Obama won the debate. That almost made me fall off my sofa. Then I turn back to MSNBC and they had a point. Kinda of cold blooded but true. John McCain with his deformed little body looked kind of weird out there. One thing for his campaign to note as well. John McCain saying he was on a couple of ships that had NUCLEAR power, look at me I came ok. Is not a good thought since the poor man has had how many bouts with cancer. John please dont go there again. Plus John will you stop with the My Friends thing it's becoming really creepy. I thought as a man you would understand that lets be friends thing is a bad reminder.

Brian M De (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:34 PM)

they are all off it is more like 15% you guy's don't want to count the kids and they will show up. On nov 4th if turnout is 60% to 70% President Obama will win by 15% at least. MLitman

ml (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:35 PM)

Looking at the performance, policy, and comportment it should be larger than that. When a presidential candidate in the USA has yells of terrorist yelled against his opponent without any check or a VP has someone yell "kill him" no matter to who it is addressed, we've got to recognize that such candidates should never represent us, no matter what.

It also helps when the economic policies being espoused by Obama/Biden is better and focuses on the middle class. Growth from the middle leads to more job craetors out of which will rise new entrants to the top 6%. Funelling more eocnomic largese at the top 6% has not worked in the past 8 years and doing more of it? Its a wonder anyone ever believed this was the best route in the first place.

J. Richter (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:35 PM)

I hope and pray the Secret Service is really protecting him now that Palin and McCain are inciting the crowds towards violence! As long as they keep quiet when people yell "kill him", as far as I am concerned, they are just as guilty.

New Independent (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:35 PM)

If anyone honestly believes Obama is ahead in the polls by 11 or anywhere close to that - I've got some swamp land in the middle of Kansas to sell you.

FOr some reason the man seems to be ahead in polls and yet comes up way short when the vote is actually in. They probably need to reconsider who they're polling - obviously polls lie - much like the nominee for the Democratic Party.

It's pretty pathetic when he participates in voter fraud (ACORN) and driving homeless people to vote and telling them to vote for him. What's next? Is he going to start digging up dead people and driving them to the polls?

If this man happens to win in November - it sure won't be in a legal or ethical way.

Wildcat (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:35 PM)

Obama/Biden 3
Mavrick/Goose 0

No wonder we've got a 11 point lead!

Obama/Biden '08/'12

Iceman un Miramar (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:36 PM)

It's about time!

Sal, Columbia, MD (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:36 PM)

A GOP poll shouldn't even be mentioned. Looking at the Poll's website, the trends they are showing goes against every single other Poll that is out there today. Polling GOP strongholds and calling them Independents doesn't make your poll accurate. Good try Diego/Hotline.

Steven NY (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:36 PM)

Obama's a steamroller at this point. But let's not be content with where things stand. Let's push it to that next level and leave no doubts that he'll be our next president!

Tom, Edison, NJ (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:37 PM)

I wonder if McCain will keep his senate seat when he loses?

Liz, St. Louis, MO (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:38 PM)

Barack Obama is by far the better choice for someone to lead this country through this period of trials. He willhave a far stronger and steady hand. I pray thatthere is noone in this country who buy into the attacks of the losing side, because in the end that would make them the ones who suffer the most.

Rose, Omaha, NE (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:38 PM)

I love the polls because they are so entertaining. I don't count on their accuracy too much though. I think that race may yet play a bit of a role in this election although I'm not sure of how much. I would hope that America is ready to move past that but in that area I don't hold out much hope. I know that the economy is tops of most folks list and alot of the pundits are attributing Obama's increase in #'s to that but let's give the Senator himself much of the credit. I have seen him mature so much over the past 9 months - where he was skittish he is now graceful and while he was always confident it didn't show in his actions as much as it does now. There is a certainty and a confidence in who he is and how he will lead that exudes from him now and that is NOT merely the economy. Having said that I will also turn to other polls that also show him ahead in most all issues that McCain WAS more experienced in with the exception of terrorism issues and the lead for mcCain there is not overwhelming. Let's give 'that one' his credit. He has earned his respect and his place in the polls. Let's just hope that Palin and McCain will behave more responsibly in addressing crowds especially when they become hostile and threatening towards the opponent. People are angry and desperate and don't need anyone they 'admire' (regardless of whether we do or not) spewing hatred from a podium, especially when those two are supposed to exude leadership in it's highest form. None of my other comments seems to make it so let's hope this one does.

Elizabeth in Texas (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:38 PM)

Yeah, what's up with these diverging polls? Zogby and Hotline are tightening fiercely, Rasmussen slightly while Gallup and GW seem to be widening. I mean, I get it when the results are not the same, but when the trends are opposite directions - in the case of Zogby/Hotline and Gallup, dramatically so, I get concerned.

Cormac, New York, NY (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:38 PM)

! alleluia ! im finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. after eight years of an economic disaster and a war that should have never been fought. go obama/biden go

simon (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:38 PM)

Since when did Hotline/Diego get national credibility? It's new this election cycle,and have you looked at the internals. It claims that they are tied on the economy. That's inconsistent with EVERY other poll.

Dee of VA (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:40 PM)

Barack Obama is by far the better choice for someone to lead this country through this period of trials. He will have a far stronger and steady hand. I pray that there is no one in this country who buy into the attacks of the losing side, because if they do, in the end that would make them the ones who suffer the most.

Rose, Omaha, NE (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:40 PM)

He'll need a bigger lead than that my friends because sweet cheeks is out there inciting enough righteous hate and racist backlash to Bradley Effect the whole deal. The people know a Peeeee OH DoubleU in spite of his height is a smarter pick than That One. Hey has anyone come up with that battery yet? I need something to talk about instead of war.

navy ball cap (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:41 PM)

The Hotline/Dia-haga-who?

Hotline this!!! (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:42 PM)

It does not matter whether Obama is up 11 or one in the tracking polls. What really matters is our increased voter registrations in every battleground state and our ground game.

It is heartening to see the polls in our favor, but I dont trust any poll or pollsters. Obama/Biden will win in November, not because of polls, but if we, (their grassroots supporters) truly turn out and take back our country. VOTE EARLY AND KNOW YOUR RIGHTS!!

Obama/Biden 08

Dawn (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:42 PM)

This is looking like a Reagan-Carter type blowout. At least, we won't have to stay up late on election night to know who won.

Ron Jeffers, Arizona Independent (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:42 PM)

Diageo unexpectedly changed their party affiliation sample recently from +6 Dem to +2 Dem; clearly to drive the meme that this is a "horserace" or some other such nonesense. The truth is probably around NBC's poll or a little higher--+6-7 Obama.

A closer look (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:43 PM)

Don't trust the polls! It doesn't matter whether the polls show 1% or 11% lead for Obama. This race will be won or loss based on how people are feeling on Nov. 4th.

When people are polled they may not be honest. They may want to appear more progressive than they actually are so leaning Obama seems safe.

Hopefully I am wrong and it will be a landslide for Obama because of new registrants and the youth vote. That is the only way he will win because older, blue-collar, white voters will not push the button for Obama.

Sheila Robinson, Baltimore, MD (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:43 PM)

I'll trust the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. McCain had no game-changers last night and Barack still has his tremendous Electoral Map lead. No way of spinning this one, Obama by a LANDSLIDE!!!!

CJH, LB, CA (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:43 PM)

Polls are meaningless, although I do believe these polls reflect the general public's view... However since cell phones (the only phone for many younger people) are not called for any polls, I believe the numbers may actually be higher for Obama.

Sergeant S., Scranton, PA (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:43 PM)

Fired Up, Ready to Go! Next Stop ~ White House!!!

Obama/Biden

MC314, Saint Louis, MO (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:43 PM)

While the polls are intriguing... to me the electoral map is much more of an indication of where this campaign is heading... State after State that were close are falling to Obama... and we haven't heard from the 1 million plus new registered voters. I for one am looking for a blue tidal wave come election night.

Alex Cole, Incline Village, Nevada (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:44 PM)

Thats the way it goes.Before november 4th the hall map will be blue and Obama will be 35 point up!C'est tout ce que je peux vous dire pour le moment.
Obama le prochain president Americain apartir du janvier 2009.
GOBAMA/BIDEN 08!!!

moh,newyork,NY (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:44 PM)

Let's make that a 15 point lead, 20 would not be bad either.

C A, Tusdcaloosa, AL (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:44 PM)

More poor reporting. The Hotline crosstabs show almost an equal number of Dems to GOP 40-38. Plus, Hotline has just recently changed their model which is why they are an outlier from other polls, including your own WSJ/NBC poll.

There you go giving credence to the one who says it is sunny, even though you look out the window and its raining.

When are you going to stop covering candidates that refuse to have press conferences? When are you going to demand medical records and make it an issue each and every day?

TruthIsOutThere, Waxhaw, NC (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:44 PM)

The McCain campaign deceit is comming to light. For example, McCain's misrepresentation of both his health care policy and his tax policy was jointly exposed in last night's debate.

Gregory Peek , Birmingham, Alabama (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:44 PM)

Huh. Gallup is usually on the tighter side of the varying polls, aren't they?

This 11 point lead has to be an outlier. I'm not familiar with Hotline/Diageo, but it sounds like an outlier, too. My guess is the NBC poll is about right.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:45 PM)

Thats a pretty good lead for "That One" :)

David, Los Angeles,CA (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:45 PM)

Gallup has been doing their poll daily for months, and it has been showing a slight trend upward for days now. Please explain why it is worth pointing out the outlier when there are 8 other national polls that show Obama up +6 or better.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

infogiant, austin, tx (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:46 PM)

I can't believe we are even having a debate..McCain and Palin are so MEAN SPIRITED..like most conservatives in the media, on Radio and T.V... what would it be like to wake up every day to that ugliness...never anything positive from any of them ever...OBAMA BY A LANDSLIDE...CAN'T WAIT...even the Republicans are getting sick of Mcalin lies...

Christine Esler (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:46 PM)

McCAIN:

“But you know, one of the real catalysts, really the match that lit this fire was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I'll bet you, you may never even have heard of them before this crisis. “

I guess McPain forgot that the rest of most of us watch TV on occasion and "Fannie & Freddie" have popped up on our TV screens in our one house.

McPain: How many TV's do you have in your seven homes?

Jim Carter, Drexel Hill PA (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:46 PM)

11, 1 and 6. 18/3 = 6. Even if you subtract 5 for the Bradley effect he's leading.

I still ain't countin' the chickens before the cows come home to roust.

Rick in Raleigh (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:47 PM)

What is worth pointing out is that the Hotline/Diageo tracking poll only polls ~300 people a day and their Party ID Breakdown (40%D, 38%R, 18%I I believe) is questionable. I don't know of any other reputable pollster that believes the D and R numbers are that close.

James, AZ (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:47 PM)

And this poll was taken before last night's debate!

If you watch and listen with an open heart and mind, you will know intuitively which candidate is our best choice.

Obama/Biden '08

Gail, TN (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:47 PM)

It's also worth noting that two days ago the Hotline poll shifted their party ID weightings to have more Republicans than in the 2004 election, and a very small Independant weighting relative to, well, everyone. It's entirely out of whack with every other pollster out there. No idea why they did that.

That poll is now junk.

Ned (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:48 PM)

Gallup is one of, if not the most, reliable of the tracking polls. Gallup is showing that Obama supporters and Obama haven't been given enough credit these days, we know that we Obama supporters are more numerous than the media can imagine and so they try to contain it. The media has no idea how fiercely Americans are fighting to keep McCain out of the White House and it's happening despite all the media blabber about race being an issue for Obama.

LJ (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:48 PM)

hmm, that will make it hard for the Republicans to steal this election, that is unless the public and the media will swallow huge discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count.

nuanced (Sent Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1:48 PM)

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