Going to Carolina…
Posted: Wednesday, October 08, 2008 3:53 PM by Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Luke Russert
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. -- I watched the debate here with students from Wake Forest University last night. I decided to travel to North Carolina because recent polls show the presidential race between McCain and Obama very close. No Democrat has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter did in 1976, and I wanted to gauge the situation on the ground to see if North Carolina is actually up for grabs.
Republicans and Democrats at Wake Forest agree that North Carolina can be considered a swing state this year and attribute its newfound status to a rise in registration among younger voters and African Americans, as well as to the large number of transplants that have come from the Midwest and New England to live in the state for its favorable tax incentives.
One young Republican I spoke with said she believes a lot of moderate Republicans here, especially in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh, are going to vote for Obama. She attributed this to something she called "Bush Guilt." Moderate Republicans are disappointed with their '04 votes and want to vote for a change candidate. If this is the case, Obama has a very good shot of winning the state.
Another student I spoke with said, while Obama will keep it close, the high number of evangelical voters and the state's inherent conservatism will allow McCain to pull out a victory. Keep in mind that some polls in 2004 had Bush and Kerry running neck-and-neck, but Bush ended up winning the state by 12 points.
There are two interesting local races here that reflect the changing mood of the state. Sen. Elizabeth Dole is in an absolute dogfight against State Sen. Kay Hagan. Polls have indicated a close race, and if North Carolinians are willing to vote out the well-known Dole, who replaced the local legend Jesse Helms, it demonstrates how much change really is brewing in the state.
Another race to keep an eye on is in the 8th Congressional District, located in the southern part of the state. In 2006, incumbent Robin Hayes won this race against little-known schoolteacher Larry Kissell by only 329 votes. In the past, the rural 8th district has been fairly conservative, but it has been hit hard by the poor economy and has become more middle of the road. Kissell now leads by 8 points in the most recent Survey USA poll.
These two races show a state that is no longer decisively Republican, but very much up for grabs. I am interested to see if "Values Voters" appear in high numbers, as they did in 2004, or if the economy dominates the day, as many are predicting.
As for the debate, an older person sent me the following: "Both disappointed me. I want Churchill or FDR -- these times call for soaring rhetoric and calls to action. Too small for the times."
I thought that was an interesting read on what some called a boring debate. By now you have read every pundit's opinion of what transpired last night, so I won't bore you with too much more of the same.
With our nation facing such challenging times, I expected each candidate to try to make a more personal plea, and explain why he would make the best steward of a country that is now in dire straits.
Frankly, all we saw was more of the same: two candidates sticking to their crafted positions, unwilling to appear uncertain or overly romantic.
For more, go to NBC's ICue blog.
