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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Down the ballot: A Dem surge?

Posted: Thursday, October 09, 2008 9:01 AM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under:

The New York Times front-pages this grim story for the GOP. “The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say. Top campaign officials for both parties, pollsters and independent experts say the intense focus on the economic turmoil and last week’s bailout vote have combined to rapidly expand a Democratic advantage in Congressional contests. Analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities.”

The AP looks at the competitive House seat in Washington State. "Reichert and Burner are in a rematch for the 8th Congressional District seat -- the state's only competitive race for Congress in this election -- after a heated and close fight two years ago. The financial markets crisis threatening to cripple the nation's economy has become central to the campaign."
 
In North Carolina… "By all rights, Asheville city councilman Carl Mumpower should be a rare political specimen this year, a Republican with a plausible shot at ousting a Democrat from Congress, Rep. Heath Shuler. Turns out he is something far more common: a GOP challenger burdened with an assortment of political and personal problems in addition to President Bush's unpopularity and economic hard times. It's a familiar story across the country. Republicans are having a tough time mounting respectable challenges against Democratic incumbents, even green first-termers in conservative-leaning districts."

Can you handle the truth? "Two challengers for an Indiana congressional seat have agreed to be hooked up to lie detectors during a debate, but an official with the incumbent's party dismisses the idea as 'bizarre.' Ninth District Republican Party Chairman Larry Shickles on Wednesday proposed the political polygraphs for Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, GOP challenger Mike Sodrel and Libertarian candidate Eric Schansberg. The three are scheduled to debate Oct. 21, but an official with a debate co-sponsor said lie detectors won't be included."

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Correct and display my symatic comments . . . heeheehee . . .-your angency does showcase Palin's and McCains . . . lol.
Surge Baby Surge!  Let's hope that the Democrats can gain lots of seats this election and have a fillibuster proof Senate.  Then we can get something done to undo the evil of the repugnant one's past incompetent lobbyist lover congresses.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!


WHO IS BARACK OBAMA??????  she asks...

A person that's been vetted like no one else in American politics for over 20 months straight.

Who is this palin couple, is what the public needs to ask.  She has been on the national scene for 5 weeks with a new fiasco out every other day...  the baby is not hers, but is her daughters, her daughter is pregnant again, not by the guy they are going to make marry her, but an African American young man, Troopergate, the AFFAIR with one of her husbands business associates, her oldest son has been in trouble with drugs and had no other option but to join the army, her witch doctor preacher, etc...

SO I ASK... WHO THE HECK ARE THEY?!?!?!

And how dare she just pop on the scene trying to question Obama as she is doing!  We know more about Obama's daughters than we do about the Palins.

You people act like it was just Obama and Ayres sitting in a dark, smoke filled room while working on a board to help education.

There were many people on the board... conservative republicans also.

This was NOT his board... he did not appoint the board members, and it is not like the board met every week.

GEEZZZZZZ...

Get back on the real issues mccain!

What about Palins own HUSBAND AND HIS AFFILIATION with the radical AIP group that hates the United States and wants seperation for Alaska.

What about that, if you are going to go there...

little over one year ago:
          1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
          2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
          3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.  
               4) the DOW JONES hit a record high--14,000 +
               5) American's were buying new cars,taking cruises, vacations overseas, living large!...
 
But American's wanted 'CHANGE!' So, in 2006 they voted in a Democratic Congress and yes--we got 'CHANGE' all right. In the PAST YEAR:
           1) Consumer confidence has plummeted;
           2) Gasoline is now over $4 a gallon & climbing!;
           3) Unemployment is up to 5.5% (a 10% increase!);
           4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $12 TRILLION  DOLLARS and prices still dropping;
            5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
            6) as I write, THE DOW is probing another low~~ $2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS HAS EVAPORATED FROM THEIR STOCKS, BONDS & MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS!
             
YES, IN 2006 AMERICA VOTED FOR CHANGE...AND WE SURE GOT IT!  ....


REMEMBER THE PRESIDENT HAS NO CONTROL OVER ANY OF THESE ISSUES, ONLY CONGRESS.

AND WHAT HAS CONGRESS DONE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.


NOW THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT CLAIMS HE IS GOING TO REALLY GIVE US CHANGE ALONG WITH A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS!!!!

JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YOU THINK YOU CAN STAND?


With this in mind I hope a lot of people wake up realize that Pelosi and Reid and all of these other FAILED congress people MUST go ! Fo the first time in my life I'm voting straight rep. ticket
Why is it that FR does not post the neg blogs about Obama ????? or very few of them. But any Anti McCain blog is on here. FR your bias is showing very badly !
Republicans are such good liars that the polygraph would register truth when they were, in fact, lying. All politicians stretch the truth or exagerate. It's what they do. Using a lie detector is just plain stupid. It is nor necessary as one who pays attention can usually spot the liar(s).
Good deal.  Throw the bums out that controlled Washington from 2000-2006 and failed to take action when the housing bubble grew un-checked.  

Maybe with the Dems in control of the White House and Congress we can return to the success we saw under Clinton in the 1990s.
Not good to be a Republican this year, is it?

Laughing all the way to the polls..........people have finally realized that the GOP is nothing but lies, distortions and pandering to get the vote. Sorry, votes are going BLUE this year. Guess you'll have to find the 24% that think Bush is STILL doing a bang-up job.You might want to look wherever those 41% are that think Palin is ready to fill his shoes.....sheesh! Can people REALLY be THAT stupid? Oh yeah, they voted for Bush not once, but twice, so I guess I just answered my own question! NOT THIS TIME! NO WAY, NO HOW, NO McCAIN/PALIN!               Obama/Biden '08/'12
Buy a good coat GOP, It is cold out there in the political wilderness. Buy two, they wear out fast and you will be there a long long time.
...And unlike the Iraqi surge, which produced NO substantive changesin the Iraqi gov't, as intended, THIS Surge will worklike gangbusters to bring REAL changes!!
This nation like any democracy needs a minimum of two strong political parties.  It's sad that we don't have 3 or 4 at this time.  If we did I doubt the degree of stalemate would be nearly as great.  I doubt we'd be in the financial mess we're in now.  Saying that, and I was a republican until last year...now an independent; the GOP that I used to know is dead.  Between too much influence from the far religious right (like Palin), the runaway spending of the neo-cons and the dirt flinging tactics that are so ugly...started by Atwater I could no longer support the philosphy.  Trickle down just doesn't work if you're a blue collar worker.
Why would anybody smarter than a twit vote for deregulating republicans. Their friends got rich and we must pay.
Sock it to'em!!!
Do conservative think that the people they like (ceo's, bankers, and big business) should follow a policy of leveraging 30 to 1 to increase profits when they have no collateral to back up their deals?
Conservative?
No regulations, do as you please, just don't get caught mentality, is this smart?
Do smart people buy, sell, trade "instruments-derivatives" they or no one they know can understand or explain? How did we get here?
Maybe some smart repubs can explain this to me. You people are self prescribed know-it-all's, how about some good answers, you've always had the right answers before, I'm listening.


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