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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Battleground: Big guns to Florida

Posted: Thursday, October 09, 2008 9:09 AM by Carrie Dann

COLORADO: The AP breaks down those new Wisconsin ad project numbers. "Denver is second only to Las Vegas in the number of campaign ads aired last week by Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, according to an analysis released Wednesday. ....Denver was McCain's top target, with 932 airings. Las Vegas was Obama's top target, followed by Tampa, Fla., and then Denver. However, Obama is spending far more and had 1,059 airings in Denver. McCain ads aired 399 times in Grand Junction, putting the city 10th on his target list. 
 
The Colorado Secretary of State is in the process of fixing almost 21,000 incomplete or faulty voter registration forms.

FLORIDA: "The Obama campaign's top two field generals have decamped to Florida, a sign of its confidence that the state, with 27 electoral votes, is tilting toward the Democratic candidate,” reports Marc Ambinder. “Steve Hildebrand, the deputy campaign manager, will oversee operations from Miami, and Paul Tewes, the chief general election strategist, will help supervise the get-out-the-vote program from the campaign's state headquarters in Tampa." 

INDIANA: The Wall Street Journal looks at how the economy is putting the state into play for Obama. "A gloomy economic outlook is providing a ray of sunshine for Barack Obama in the Republican stronghold of Indiana, pinching rival John McCain's efforts to hold onto once-reliable electoral votes." 
 
Research 2000/WISH TV found that Indiana voters oppose the government bailout by a margin of 2-1. Asked which candidate they trusted to handle the crisis, respondents said they preferred Obama, 33%-22%.

OHIO: One Portsmouth, OH, voter said she is "not into either one, really," when asked about McCain or Obama, per AP. She added, "that she is a Democrat who's not enthused about her party's nominee. 'Not much,' she replied, when asked what she thought about Barack Obama. But the economy, particularly bleak in this Appalachian city on the Ohio River, is high on her mind, and she expects to vote Democratic in hope of a change for the better. That's the kind of opening Obama is trying capitalize on as he challenges Republican John McCain for Ohio -- the swing state that narrowly clinched President Bush's re-election. In fact, no Republican has reached the White House without carrying Ohio. Recent polling indicates that Obama, who will campaign in Portsmouth for the first time Thursday, has forged ahead in the state in a tight race." 

PENNSYLVANIA: Salon takes a look at the McCain campaign's last stand in Pennsylvania, almost questioning it. But what other choice does the McCain campaign have? If McCain starts moving the needle in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin, isn't it likely he'll be improving his standing in Indiana or even Colorado, North Carolina or Florida? How much of McCain's time should be defending red states or targeting a couple of blue states? 

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These virulent outcries of "Kill him", "Treason", "Terrorist", "off with his head" disclose the ugly underbelly of our great country.  And this virulence is being exacerbated by 2 politicians in Mc/Palin who want to lead our country?!?!? No Way! The outcries used during Mc/Palin rallies sound eerily similar to outcries made by Extremist in other parts of the world! Bidem was correct in stating that the Mc/Palin campaign is heading down a slippery slope!

God Bless America...
These virulent outcries of "Kill him", "Treason", "Terrorist", "off with his head" disclose the ugly underbelly of our great country.  And this virulence is being exacerbated by 2 politicians in Mc/Palin who want to lead our country?!?!? No Way! The outcries used during Mc/Palin rallies sound eerily similar to outcries made by Extremist in other parts of the world! Bidem was correct in stating that the Mc/Palin campaign is heading down a slippery slope!

God Bless America...
I think that it's absolutely amazing that Obama has 'taken the fight' to McCain.  The Obama campaign has completely redrawn the electoral map.  In 2004, John Kerry would have never thought that he had a chance of winning in Colorado or Virginia.

Now McCain is on the defense in states that are typically 'red'.  Amazing.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
FR: "How much of McCain's time should be defending red states or targeting a couple of blue states?"  

Its a good question, but let's be more specific about it. McCain needs to 1) win every state currently being called a toss-up, most of which were red four years ago, or 2) win PA and then most of the toss-up states.

Either path, the first or the second, requires him to hold most if not all of the former red/current purple states. So, you can argue that should be his focus.

Pennsylvania is a bit of a reach, and using cost-benefit analysis you can imagine a scenario where McCain throws everything he has at the state and still comes up short.

Not saying he should pull out of PA, obviously, but I think he needs to focus on the states he'd probably have an easier time winning - states that have been more red than not in recent presidential cycles.

All in all, I'd rather be designing strategy for Obama right now. There's so many more possibilities for how he might put this thing away.
What's The difference between a McCain/Palin rally and a Lynch Mob?.................Lipstick
Yesterday the McCain Campaign made its most outrageous charge yet by claiming that Obama is a transvetite, a crossdresser, a man who wears women's clothes.  Cindy McCain came out on stage and said, "I would suggest that Senator Obama change shoes with me..."

Why does she think he would want to wear her shoes?  What information does she have?  How did she learn these facts?  Why would this charge come out now?  

How disrespectful!!!!! ;) LOL
I don't think we will have to worry about Fl and In. I feel they will remain red. With all of the obama voter fraud a lot of these new fraudulent register will be kicked out.
 Sorry Huessin not this time !
I NEVER HAVE AGREED WITH THE COMMENTS OF CHUCK TODD BECAUSE HE IS PRO OBAMA AND A NEWS MEDIA SHOULD GIVE ALL CANDIDATES EQUAL BILLING NOT SINGLE OUT ONE. HE HAS BEEN DOING THIS FOR A LONG TIME. FAVORITES ARE AN INJUST TO THE OTHER CANDIDATE.
McCain and Palin did an interview with a local ABC affiliate here in Philly.  Note how McCain barely lets Palin speak.  When she does speak, she only repeats the standard talking points and McCain swoops in to "rescue" her before she can FUBAR too badly.  Also, note that McCain labors under the delusion that Palin BEAT Biden in the VP debate.  Check it out:

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=6440354

Obama/Biden '08!
http://jawillie.blog.com
I'm glad to hear McCain is wasting time in Pennsylvania.  Let him keep believing he has a shot at winning this state.  It's just money down the tubes.
Whoo Whoo INDIANA! Let's turn BLUE in November! This shouldn't even be close and the Republicans have always enjoyed this red state, but things may change this year by the look of things. Keep talking about the economy and let McFossil send out "the Stepford woman" that continue to talk about nonsense when the economy is going in the toilet. More and more people (and the polls) reflect that more people are going to vote for "that one" instead of the dinosauer!  Obama/Biden '08/'12!
mccain is trying to get Hillary supporters--hahahahahaha--keep dreamin mr. Mcgoo--it ain't gonna happen, not in this lifetime.
Why is it that FR does not post the neg blogs about Obama ????? or very few of them. But any Anti McCain blog is on here. FR your bias is showing very badly !
It's the economy stupid and the Dumb and Dumber ticket are clueless about getting our wrecked economy humming again.

Never Forget that it's been "Lobbyist Lover" McCain's support of the Reagan, Bush, Bush policies that have wrecked our economy with their Voo Doo Tinkle Down economics that have left us regular Americans all wet from the wrong kind of Golden Shower.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
"One Portsmouth, OH, voter said she is 'not into either one, really[.]'"

Wait, so now we're supposed to take the opinion of one voter in smalltown Ohio as indicative one way or the other? C'mon, guys. This is getting asinine. The overanalysis of this election cycle has reached epic proportions. Can't you see what's plainly in front of your faces?

Obama is leading where he needs to lead and doing what he needs to do to win, just as he did in the primaries. That's not a judgment on his candidacy, nor whether or not he'll be a good president; that's simply a judgment on how he has been running his campaign. Meanwhile, McCain has been more erratic than Clinton campaignwise; he has been all over the map, looking for big explosions rather than the small, sustained victories Obama seems to get nine times out of ten.

Look, I know y'all are still confused. I know it doesn't make sense how a veritable rookie beats the Clinton machine and then (so far) successfully takes on the remnants of the Bush machine. I know character attacks linking a candidate to rehabilitated terrorists (Ayers) and nutjob preachers (Wright) should destroy a candidacy. I know getting caught by microphones telling the truth (small-towners with nothing left cling to what they know, like guns and religion) is usually what forces candidates from the race and often kills their political careers. And I know that you all prefer driving the story rather than having it driven over you (which is why you continue promulgating this myth that this election is somehow going to be close, when most polls show that Obama has all but secured the electoral votes he needs to win).

You are intellectually dishonest and intrinsically stupid, and it proves that none of you has been paying attention to what has been going on, because God forbid somebody actually make a prediction about what's going to happen. You'd rather spend months dissecting each individual poll the way you did in 2004 ("How is it possible that Kerry lost?" many of you asked in an attempt to Monday Morning Quarterback the election. Well, Kerry lost the election in JULY, for anyone that was paying attention). Get over yourselves. Stop the overanalysis and start paying attention. I don't know if Obama is going to be a good president; he may be an awful one. But I'm 98% positive of one thing: he IS going to be president.

Every major pole now has McSame down double digits in Pa. I really hope they just keep pouring their resources down that hole.
If Obama wins Florida it's all over..

Obama/Biden we need change now!
"The New York Times notes that McCain raced through the economic portion of his stump speech to get to the main portion of it -- which was blasting Obama." well, we were told many viral ads ago by the mccain campaign, "this election is not about issues." we have been told," if we talk about the economy, we will lose." we have heard sen. mccain (now refuting)he really does not understand the economy. what we do know is sen. mccain has repeatedly said his hero is ronald reagan, of the good ol' trickle down theory, give to the wealthy and connected and prosperity will trickle down to the middle class like tinkerbell's fairy dust. we have also heard sen. mccain say, while a maverick, he supports good ol' gwb's tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations who ship american jobs out of america. in listening to some of the house's hearings on the financial meltdown, we the middle class, have heard about the exorbitant salaries, stock options and golden parachutes these wealthy individuals and corporations have made during gwb's administration. john and cindy mccain's wealth, the first dude and ms. palin's wealth belies her "joe-sixpack" image would explain why john mccain does not feel the need or desire to talk about the economy nor mention "middle class" in neither debate. reminds me of bush I being amazed at that new fandangled grocery store scanner. really, what else can they do but lie, smear, distort and manipulate by fear?
I am a volunteer for the Obama campaign in Pensacola, FL, a traditionally Republican place, but even in Northwest FL, you really see people starting to change their minds.  I think its going to be a bigger landslide that people thing
The Obama Campaign:
It's a beautiful machine. Put your foot into it. Lets see what she'll do.
Obama, just tell the folks in florida about McCains
social security and medicare benefits solutions and
that should be all it takes to finish cooking McCains goose. Thsi feeble minded old man really wants Bushes
job as pretend president.

no way
no how
no McCain
A few questions for the MSNBC:

1 - I read that Obama's September haul could approach $100 mil.  How is McCain's public finance budget holding up?  Is he going to be able to match Obama tid-for-tat the last few weeks?

2 - Assuming Obama will have a significant financial advantage, what will McCain's strategy be the last few weeks?  It seems to me he would have a couple choices:  pull out of the "traditional red" states such as NC, Indiana and Va and just hope that the GOP base there "comes home to roost" depsite all Obama's efforts, and focus on the few battleground states that will truly decide this thing: Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Ohio.  Or, just "spread the money thin" in all 7 or 8 BG states and hope that he runs the table.  I would actually probably recommend the former, not the latter.
McCain is washed up. He doesn't have the money to compete and his message is falling flat. People don't want vitriol they want solutions. Only Obama has offered ideas for solving our nation's problems. One may not agree fully with those ideas but at least he is articulating something. Congress will massage and argue any bill before it passes or fails. Rarely does a bill proposed by the Executive Branch make it through the Legislative Branch unchanged. Reality says Obama is doing the right things to get elected and McCain is not. Can McCain reverse this? Doubtful at this late stage. He might lose one or two fewer states but generally it looks like a win for Obama. Bill Clinton pedicted that Obama would win handilly. Things are shaping up to prove Mr. Clinton right.
I noted that the repugs are already trying to foul of the election systems in certain states and are even filing lawsuits. They may deny it but isn't it a coincidence it's happening in the states with the greatest democrat voter registrations? And I just wonder which registrations they're purging?
Why is it that this young Black man Senator Obama be judged by the color of his skin instead of the content of his heart.It's a shame!!! I've voted every since I was 19 years of age and have always voted to the content of the person heart and they've always been white. Now we have a young Black Man/Senator who is qualified to take this mess and again I say this mess that has trickled down into main street to make life a little better for all people.  It's a shame that the Clinton's left 651 billion dollars in surplus when they left office, and the Bush administration took office and we're in worse shape since the depression and people feel that the Republician party has the answers.  You see people are suffering whether black, white, hispanic, Asian American, etc.  And to be honest with you Senator Barack Obama can't give a specific detail about the plan of this huge deficit because he doesn't know all the specific's.  I do know this and many don't talk about it.  It's stupid to spin a billion dollars on an uncessary war. How stupid is it..you bomb up a country and then take U.S. Money and rebuild it.  That's stupid and these eight years of the Bush administration has been stupid.....Note you don't have to have a college education and be qualified if you are of another race you can be considered qualified because you headed up a office for a year or two...It's so sad to see that race still plays a big part in politics.  It's heard through the media, commentators, and the politicians.  The key to anything is forgiviness.,.Regardless of the associations, faults, etc. You must forgive...If you don't forgive you will not be forgiven bottom line.  Everyone has a past of doing something wrong in their life.  No one is perfect except Jesus Christ.  My views on Senator John McCain and Govenor Sara Palin is this.  They portray to be double minded and unstabled.  Govenor Sara Palin has hate in her heart, as well as Senator John McCain.  If he feels that the accusations about Senator Obama are true...why don't he confront him about them.  Senator John McCain stated before the nomination was decided between Senator Hillary Cliton and Senator Barak Obama that he wouldn't run a negative compaign...again I say that he's double minded and unstable.  He can not be trusted on any fronts....As I end these conversations....I say as Senator Barak Obama stated earlier on... the American people are smart.....We are not stupid to the games that are being played and the undermindness of people from talk radio(s)the news media, or commentators on each front we can hear in the voices what's in the heart of the men and women.....If people vote with there hearts it's Senator Obama...If people vote because of the color of their skin it's Senator McCain but my hope is that the American people vote for a young Black man name Senator Barak Obama whose interest is the bottom up..
and have fairness for all. thanks,Marilyn  
I'm a Caucasian 70 year old female and a registered Democrat. After receiving by mail a DVD "Obesession" I researched on line info about it and found out this vile DVD about Muslim Terrorists was either sent or included in local newspapers to 28 million people in swing states. Scare tactics to be sure.   I've also received info about the McCain Palin ticket by mail.  I have an unlisted phone number, but received a call yesterday from the Republican Campaign urging my vote for McCain. I'm voting for the intelligent team of Obama Biden of course and hope my swing state Colorado voters do the same.
As I said earlier, the Repigs just don't get this economic downturn thing.  Isn't everybody doing ok, like they are?  Isn't Indiana a solidly Repiglican state? Not since the Great Crash of'08, boys---ALL Repiglican bets are off EVERYWHERE, now!
I'm a Caucasian 70 year old female and a registered Democrat. After receiving by mail a DVD "Obesession" I researched on line info about it and found out this vile DVD about Muslim Terrorists was either sent or included in local newspapers to 28 million people in swing states. Scare tactics to be sure.   I've also received info about the McCain Palin ticket by mail.  I have an unlisted phone number, but received a call yesterday from the Republican Campaign urging my vote for McCain. I'm voting for the intelligent team of Obama Biden of course and hope my swing state Colorado voters do the same.
What happened to  Mr. and Mrs. Clinton "doing all I can to elect Barak Obama!"?

After Bill said McCain was a "great man," but not Obama, I'm starting to see why the right wing hates him.

If the whiny dough heads who think voting McCain will teach us all a lesson for not being sweeter to Hilldawg -  if you vote for Palin because you have the same plumbing Hillary Clinton will NEVER see the WH. Ever. Believe it. After this half-@ssed effort I'll never support her again, that's for sure.
McCain--"Yeah, my friends, I'll give all the money to the rich folk.  But don't worry-- those rich people will build new buisness, make to jobs for you to fill. At the present time we are in need of street cleaners, and fertilization extractors (sh_t shovellers).  And that is just a start.  We are going to buy you bad morgauges from the banks--and give you a lower payment that you can make!(wait, we can't make any money this way, are sure it right?  sounds like socialism to me, but what the heck it must be right because someone else wrote it for me to read--right?) I'll teach that darn Obama that he doesn't have all the good ideas!  Wait--what's that--it's part of the bail out plan anyway?

How embarrassing!  FIRE THE LITTLE JERK WHO WROTE THIS--

AND ,,,AND ,,, GET OFF MY LAWN YOU DARN KIDS!!"
Swing Voters/independents/Dems/Rep....I challenge you to this question...

Your big on the economy right now and tax relief right?? now answer this ??? how can you support a man when his own district and same territory he's responsible for Chicago/Cook County/Illinois has the highest taxes and gas prices in the whole country. That's right his own hometown has the highest taxes in the country and you expect him to lower taxes and put money in your pocket..PLEASE!!! thats a joke..if you don't believe me,  heres an example...to rent a car in Chicago a consumer has to pay almost 30% in taxes and fees....ask Obama why our gas prices are so high..oh because our democratic run government here in Chicago felt gas needed higher taxes...Obama's a joke...democrats are a joke...if you really believe Obama will lower taxes and put money in your pocket then by all means vote for him..but just check up on Chicao's tax system...actions are stronger than words

p.s. by the way I live in Chicago on the southside by midway airport..about 15 minutes away from Obama's posh neighborhood of Hyde Park
It is time to give the 'other guy',  Barack Obama a shot at directing the country's future.  Vote Obama for president.
This country does not need a culture war that Ms. Palin is trying to incite with her vitriolic campaigning.  
Boy it must be hard for The Wall Street Journal (owned by Rupert Murdock) to make comment like Indiana in play,
etc...
I feel like I am living in the heart of Mississippi 1963 with all the racist crap from the McCain/Palin ticket and their cronies.  How sad that you cannot just run a good race but must resort to these ugly tactics. How sick so of these people in our country are. Ms. Bee
MCain now has no choice but to target blue states as well.  Florida and Virginia pretty much ARE blue states now for this election.  Appamattox Courthouse is in sight for the McCain Palin ticket.
I am an Obama supporter who doesn't agree with the McCain strategy to destroy Obama's character at the exppense of promoting their own agenda; but I do think they're pursuing the right electoral strategy of targeting the purple/red areas in the Kerry blue states and hoping that their red voters elsewhere wlll also  hear the pitch and improve their positions in FL, NC, VA and other states BUSH carried that are now leaning toward Obama.

The truth is that I don't think McCain tanked this election weeks ago with the selection of Sarah Palin which I believe was designed more to win that narrow news cycle and appeal to Hillary voters than anything else.
I hoperepublicns don't get s much as aniff of the White House foranother 50 yeas.

Look at the map, John. It's over, baby!!!

Sha na na na
Sha na na na
Hey hey
Goodbye
McCain can't campaign anywhere....he is not talking about the good of the country his main goal now is to
incite hatred and lies about Sen Obama.
He is a disgraceful, despicable excuse for a human being and I hope the American people will see him and his other cronies for what they all are.
This country does not need anymore division, which is being created by the hateful speeches and ads this sorry bunch of losers keep doing!!!
HONORABLE...that is a word that is used for someone who has done honorable things.....does McCain think he is even close to doing that....I think not!!!
He is just a shameless, angry, arrogant, bitter old man who just needs to go away.
Sarah Palin is a terrorist and so is John McCain by association. They are instilling fear and inciting emotions that can lead to dangerous situations.
Where is George Bush? Oh, I forgot! He is counting his days on his Abacus, i.e. if he knows how to use one.

Someone has got to put a stop to this hatred. I find it very disturbing. If anything happens to Barack Obama, George Bush along with John McCain and S. Palin ought to be held responsible.
I have been wondering how the media will deal with the clear possibly of McCain being obviously mathematically eliminated from winning the Presidency by losing any of the Bush 2004 States of VA, OH, IN, NC, FL or MO before Obama reaches 270 electoral votes and all the polls across the USA have closed?  This would be nightmare scenario for the GOP that could impact the rest of the ticket in an way similar to what happened in the Regan landslide of 1980.
McCain is getting desperate, resorting to negative character assasinations (a la Swift Boat) because he
KNOWS he cannot win on the issues and the economy.

And Sarah Palin, are you kidding me ?
She makes Dan Quayle look urbane and erudite !
"How much of McCain's time should be defending red states or targeting a couple of blue states? "

McCain should put "country first" and simply endorse Obama and really suspend his campaign!
This morning, Real Clear Politics (www.realclearpolitics.com) moved Virginia from the tossup column to "leaning Obama" which would put him at 277 electoral votes, or seven more than what Obama would need to win.


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