First Thoughts: Putting on Ayers?
Posted: Thursday, October 09, 2008 9:15 AM by Carrie Dann
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** To Ayers or not: The McCain campaign seems to be having a bit of an internal struggle about how much to push the Ayers story. Today, it’s up with a Web ad, hoping for some viral pickup and free media attention. But yesterday, it was notable that Ayers wasn't mentioned at any of the McCain-Palin rallies. But that didn't mean character attacks on Obama were missing; the campaign decided to up the ante a bit and have Cindy McCain hit Obama, on Iraq. But as we’ve asked before are voters listening at all to these attacks as the Dow continues to plummet and as newspapers continue to run headlines like this one: “U.S. May Take Ownership Stake In Banks To Ease Credit Crisis”? And this is the dilemma: The McCain camp is trying to tie Obama's answers about Ayers to what voters can believe about him regarding the economy. The problem for McCain is that every minute he spends on Obama is a minute he's not spending talking to voters about the economy and the issue is just that big right now for the electorate. Is anyone outside the base responding to the Ayers stuff?
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Video: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the McCain campaign's efforts to tie Barack Obama to a 1960s anti-war war activist and how those efforts are playing with the public.
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Wasn’t that bailout supposed to help things? Just asking, but how are those Senate and House Republicans feeling today about their vote for the federal bailout? Consider: The day before the Senate passed the bill (October 1), the stock market closed at 10,831. The next day (after Senate passage), the Dow was at 10,482. And today, the Dow's at 9,257 -- a 14.5% drop since last Wednesday. As we've noted before, anecdotally, we've heard that the beating the Dow has taken has a direct effect on tracking polls taken later that evening. Every night the Dow has dropped dramatically, the GOP has seen their candidates for president, Senate and House all have bad tracking nights.
*** What do women want? The Boston Globe writes how the McCain campaign -- especially with that new home mortgage plan -- is trying to appeal to women. "Obama has built up support among women that approaches the level of female support for the last successful Democratic candidate, Bill Clinton, when he won his second term in 1996. In both the presidential races that followed, George W. Bush made inroads among women voters that helped him defeat successive Democratic challengers.” Maybe that's why Cindy was speaking yesterday (in addition to bashing Obama on his Iraq war vote). In fact, two of the three main speakers at the McCain-Palin rallies yesterday were women. Of the two genders, women have been swinging more wildly in the polls this campaign season and with the economy now front-and-center, the critical voting block of married women with children are becoming more competitive which is not a good sign for McCain since married white women with children are among the most important swing voting bloc and one Bush won in 2004.
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Video: Cindy McCain, wife of Republican presidential candidate John McCain, takes aim at Democratic hopeful Barack Obama as the campaign rhetoric heats up. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports.***
All about my mother: Speaking of women, be sure not to miss
Obama’s new TV ad, which features Obama's mother and grandparents (it’s cut from his bio video at the Dem convention). Obama has really stepped up the mentions of his mother. It happened at the debate Tuesday night, when he told the story of his mother and health care. Then right after the debate, the campaign launches this ad that’s as much about his mother as it is about Obama. There are more pictures of a young Obama with his mother than any ad that he's aired to date. It's a big reminder that Obama is biracial -- something many Democrats believe helps him with some older voters who might be struggling with the race issue.
*** Checks and balances: Considering the state of the Republican ticket right now (not just McCain, but congressional Republicans too), which will come first: McCain beginning to campaign as the Republican check on Nancy Pelosi's power or congressional Republicans beginning to campaign as the Republican check on Barack Obama?
*** On the trail: McCain and Palin attend a town hall together in Waukesha, WI before splitting up: McCain goes to a rally in Mosinee, WI, and Palin goes to Wilmington, OH. Obama, also in Ohio, hits rallies in Dayton, Cincinnati, and Portsmouth. And Biden, in Missouri, stumps in St. Joseph, Liberty, and Jefferson City.
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 6 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 26 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 103 days
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