First thoughts: Obama expands his lead

Posted: Monday, October 13, 2008 9:26 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Obama expands his lead: Three weeks until Election Day, Obama now holds a more than 100-vote lead in NBC's latest electoral map. He's ahead of McCain 264-163, with 111 votes in the Toss-up column. Last week, Obama was up 264-174. Our changes: We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Something's happening in West Virginia -- yes, West Virginia -- because of the economic angst. Obama's been buying a bunch of TV time in markets that bleed into West Virginia, and the numbers have been closing for a time. By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas be far behind? Both are states that can show Democratic movement in a bad economic environment.

Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the current state of the national polls and the importance of the battleground states in a possible comeback for John McCain.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)

*** 'We’ve got them just where we want them': With McCain down in the national polls -- 10 points (53%-43%) in the latest Washington Post/ABC survey -- McCain’s campaign says the Arizona senator will unveil a new stump speech that casts him as the underdog and as a fighter. "Let me give you the state of the race today,” he is expected to say. “We have 22 days to go. We’re six points down. The national media has written us off. Sen. Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.” More: "What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I’ve never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."

*** Running against one-party rule: It's not quite a Bulworth moment (something many Republicans were kinda hoping for), but McCain is trying to goose the "can he comeback?" storyline with a speech that reminds voters of one-party rule in DC. With some Republicans (most notably Lee Terry of Nebraska) trying to latch on to Obama's coattails, it appears the mixed message that some feared might happen is now going to happen. With Republicans up and down the ballot all fending for themselves, does the party risk giving off the desperation whiff? Where are the stories of Democrats running away from Obama? And while we're not seeing Republicans fleeing from McCain just yet, they all are fleeing from Bush Republicanism as their only means of surviving. As we noted last week, it was only a matter of time before both the top of the GOP ticket would start running against the Dem Congress and the Republicans down the ballot would start running on the "check on Obama" message.

*** Obama flies to the rescue: McCain isn’t the only one with a new speech. Per his campaign, in Toledo, OH today, Obama will deliver a “major policy address” to announce his rescue plan for the middle class. Obama is not going to let go of the economic message at all these days; he knows he can't afford to get distracted by anything else. The question, of course, is whether what he's promising is believed. Right now, with a changing economic landscape in Washington and Wall Street that's measured by the Dow, does any proposal by any politician get taken seriously by the public right now.

*** Money to burn? This past weekend, your First Read team had the luxury of watching some TV in the DC area (Northern Virginia). While enjoying college football games on Saturday, the Sunday morning news shows, NFL games, and 60 Minutes, we probably viewed 30-40 Obama TV ads. And get this -- we didn’t see a single McCain advertisement. Likewise, NBC’s Mark Hudspeth and NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones noticed all the Obama TV ads running in the Chicago media market (which bleeds in Indiana and Wisconsin). And our friends at CMAG tell us that Obama is also buying Louisville, KY in order to target Southern Indiana. That said, other members of your First Read team were in the Denver and Madison media markets over the weekend, and we saw our share of McCain/RNC ads; Obama had approximately a 3-2 advantage. Still, we’ve got to ask this question again: Just how much money did Obama raise in September? And given that we didn’t see a single McCain ad in the DC media market, how much of McCain’s $84.1 million is remaining?

*** Is two better than one? Once again today, McCain will be joined by Palin as he holds two different rallies in the battleground state of Virginia (in Virginia Beach and Richmond). As we’ve seen, this joint campaigning produces big crowds for the GOP team. But is it coming at price? The Wall Street Journal reports that Obama, Biden, and Michelle Obama have held 95 separate events in battleground states since the fall campaign officially began. By comparison, McCain, Palin, and Cindy McCain had done just 55 separate events. “The effect: The Democrats are being seen much more often, in free news coverage and in paid advertising, in the states that will determine the winner,” the Journal writes. By the way, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy notes that today will be McCain’s second campaign event in Virginia since the general election began. And when he visits North Carolina later today, it will be his first stop in the Tar Heel State since May.

*** Just askin’: How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama? And one other thing: With his decision late last week to pull his negative advertising in the increasingly nasty Senate race in Minnesota, is Norm Coleman seeing something here that goes beyond his own Senate race (where he's been relentlessly negative against Al Franken)? Coleman is running in a battleground state that is seeing a lot of negative ads on the presidential level. Has the collective tone hurt Coleman and other Republicans down the ballot? Or is this unique to Coleman? If his numbers start improving in Minnesota, watch for other Republicans to echo his decision. It may be that voters -- feeling major anxiety -- are reacting downright angrily to the same old, same old, in political campaigning.

*** The bailout plan: What exactly did Congress end up passing? With the Treasury secretary changing the terms of the $700 billion that he has in his arsenal yet again, what is this doing to members of Congress who feel as if that Paulson sold them something different? Doesn't Paulson's latest attempt to change how he uses the money only help to defend those members who wanted to vote against the deal in order to take more time? What was the rush anyway?

Video: CNBC’s Erin Burnett and NBC’s Tom Brokaw discuss the impending market open on “Meet the Press.”

*** Debunking the Bradley effect: For every pundit that wants to go on the air and talk (er, bloviate) about the so-called "Bradley Effect," please read this thoughtful analysis by one of the campaign pollsters who actually participated in that famous '82 campaign. Let's not get carried away with this storyline since it is based more in myth than fact. Writes Tarrance: The other reason I reject the Bradley Effect in 2008 is because there was not a Bradley Effect in the 1982 California Governor's race, either. Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call."

*** On the trail: McCain and Palin, in Virginia, hit rallies in Virginia Beach and Richmond, and in between McCain holds a solo town hall in Wilmington, NC. Obama, in between debate prep, has an event in Toledo, OH. Biden campaigns in New Hampshire, visiting Rochester and Manchester. Michelle Obama stumps in Rochester, MN. And Hillary Clinton attends a rally for Obama in Horsham, PA.

Countdown to the third presidential debate: 2 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 22 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 99 days

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Comments

Ummm, Chuck, a local poll shows Senator Obama with a slight lead in North Dakota.

sotiredofignorance (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:37 AM)

I loved seeing Chuck Todd's new electoral map this morning as Missouri hasn't been shown the love by the Dumb and Dumber ticket. Now Obama is turning another red state blue while the losers have to scramble around their own red states in a vain attempt to try to save them.

Hey how about Paul Krugman, an ardent Obama supporter, has won the Nobel Prizer in Economics. Yeah baby a Liberal wins the big prize in economics and he supports Obama while "Lobbyist Lover" McCain only has a bunch of clueless lobbyists hanging around giving him bad advice.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:37 AM)

The Real Deal

None of this is very surprising. Everyone in the media went 24/7 over Rev. Wright months & months ago. It's called racism. It worked against Senator Obama then, and that's why we're where we are today with Bill Ayers. Only now it's fear mongering. "Who is Senator Obama, he's not one of us" we've heard. That's racism & fear mongering.

Well, Barack Obama is a United States Senator. And I don't recall any questions being raised about Obama until he was a candidate for President and the right wing correctly saw a threat - a terrific candidate. How disingenuous this all has been. And parts of the media fell for it. It is very troubling of course to see the direction the McCain campaign has taken lately, especially since selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate. So when we hear the sort of dialogue that has been used at the McCain rallies you bet the Obama camp should stand up against it. It is the GOP who brought us to this, not the Obama campaign.

However, with now 3 weeks to go until election day, there is a bigger story that has developed and one in which we should all be ecstatic about.

Sean Hannity & Rush Limbaugh.

It was these two who thought they found their pot of gold with Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers and Hannity & Limbaugh decided they would dictate to John McCain how he should run his campaign if he wanted to win - by lying and race baiting and fear mongering. And if there's one thing Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh have been consistent about during their careers - it is their lies and their ignorance.

Well, Americans I'm am delighted to say aren't buying it. And as a matter of fact, it is backfiring. As has been written previously, Sean Hannity & Rush Limbaugh were the 2 main right wingers who would do everything in their power to get McCain into the White House. Sean Hannity, a former bartender and Rush Limbaugh, a former top 40 disc jockey - have utterly convinced themselves they would somehow possess the power & the intelligence in this most important election to knock out Senator Obama on election day. And though this certainly isn't anything new to anyone who has spent just 5 minutes listening to these 2 idiots, they decided that the only way McCain could win would be by character assassination. Of course, these two make tons of money.

But of greater importance, neither of them have received a very good education. So naturally, it is easy to see why they would want Senator McCain to take the low road. It's all they know.

Unfortunately for Senator McCain, he listened to "the base" of the GOP. And it has cost him dearly. Because after all is said and done, the American people will decide that it is the candidate who received an excellent education by studying & working hard, who possessed a self-determination and seriousness not only about himself and America, but for all Americans; it is him we look forward to seeing in January 2009.

Perhaps more than anything, I personally am looking forward to the day very very soon when we can turn the page at long last on the ugliness of the Hannitys and Limbaughs of the world and move ahead into the future with a President we have elected who will guide us, inspire us and represent us with dignity and graciousness not only here in America, but throughout the world. The real deal.

A good education, despite what "the base" has been told, is never a bad thing. Just look at the damage it causes when people in positions of power have nothing going for them except their arrogance.

Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh - will lose - decent Americans - will win.
______________________________________________
MSNBC, thank you for giving us Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow, Chuck Todd, Jonathan Alter, David Shuster, Richard Wolffe, Eugene Robinson, Howard Fineman, Lawrence O'Donnell.

Barack Obama, thank you for hiring David Axelrod and David Plouffe and Robt. Gibbs.

All classy professionals.

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:37 AM)

IMO: Obama is the better candidate with or without an economic crisis.

Libratine (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:38 AM)

"TROOPER-GATE", IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF "ABUSE" OF POWER BY GOVENOR PALIN. DID WE NOT JUST GO THRU 8 YEARS OF ABUSE OF POWER UNDER THE REPUBLICAN BUSH/CHANEY ADMINISTRATION ? AND YES "GONZO-GATE" WILL NOT JUST FADE AWAY.

Z (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:38 AM)

How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama?
*******************************************************

Simple: McCain and Palin have been trying desperately to convince the American voting public that Obama is 'scary' and connected to 'terrorists'. Using hot words like 'terrorist' in your stump speech is dangerous. There is no excuse for it.

http://thepajamapundit.com/

the Pajama Pundit (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:40 AM)

John McCain says he is going to balance the Federal Budget in his first term. Why isn't anyone asking him how he is going to do it with tax cuts and two ongoing wars?

Will anyone in the media ask this simple question?

Nashville_fan (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:41 AM)

Hard not to expect McCain to fall further behind as he literally abandons the economy. What happened to his sweeping new tax cut proposals to be discussed today? Stating that you are an underdog does not get voters...

http://www.political-buzz.com/

matt (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:43 AM)

It's so funny watching the decrepit Straight Talk Titanic hit an iceberg from Alaska and sink in it's own hubris. The problem for "Bush Hugger" McCain is that he's now playing second fiddle to his clueless running mate. She has been the primary focus of the media on his campaign and she's the one who's really whipping crowds into a hateful frenzy.

I didn't buy into the Bradley effect so much as we have to remember the political climate back then as CA was then a red state and it's ex governor was president. I think that now the polls are far better and that racism is less of a problem.

We don't need a fighter we need a smart calm leader and that is Obama. I can't wait for the decrepit old liar to unveil his new clueless plan so I can have a good laugh at his feeblemindedmess.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:44 AM)

Hmmmmmm, no mention of Sarah Palin breaking ethics laws in Alaska . . . that Friday dump worked like a charm, eh First Read?

Oh well, what's a little lying and corruption between friends - we've had 8 years to get used to it, right?

Nashville_fan (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:46 AM)

What does Palin do when not at a rally? McCain and Obama are prepairing for the debate, deciding policy issues, working on strategy,... Also, McCain, Obama, and Biden are spending a lot of time talking to local media. But what is Palin doing?

Jane, Ohio (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:46 AM)

North Dakota may be a toss up, according to a poll by The Forum of Fargo Moorhead:

http://www.in-forum.com/articles/index.cfm?id=218215&section=news

Zac, Fargo, ND (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:46 AM)

Hey wasn't it funny how "Honky Mom" Palin dropped the puck at that Flyers game and got booed? The funniest was that the Flyers lost as they should not have had that Bad Luck Charm in their house.

I bet that Obama's new economic plan is ten times better than the old flip flopper's. We need to get a plan that helps poor people, a second round of ecnomic stimulus aimed at the poor like with food stamps and extended unemployment. This will help increase consumption unlike the last one that fell flat because it helped people with money.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:48 AM)

Expressing Support for All Men and Women in the U.S. Armed Forces

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_keyvote_detail.php?cs_id=15936&can_id=53270

Who voted NO...you guessed it..John S. McCain

BJ, CA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:48 AM)

The Bradley effect, in scientific terms, isn't even a theory. Its a premise, that is designed to explain the results in one race, from what is getting to be a long time ago. Those who tend to think the premise is correct point to a few others, but the simple fact is the Bradley effect isn't known to be real.

Is there still racism? Sure. Hopefully its less than years before, and we see a lot of indications of that being so. However, there also are indications that Obama might be further ahead in the polls if he were white - well, right now the polls are shaping up to almost where the "generic" race was expected to be - so maybe its better to say Obama may have been further ahead all summer if he were white.

But the Bradley effect isn't just about racism. Its about white voters who try to hide their racism by telling pollsters they support an African-American candidate when in reality they have no intentions of voting for an African-American.

My guess is we won't see too much of that this year. Its hard to imagine there are too many people out there who will be worried that a pollster will think they are racist if they say they are supporting the Republican ticket.

People aren't unfamiliar with polling. Though many of us have never been called by a pollster, its not like U.S. voters don't have a basic understanding of polling. So why lie to a pollster? Why would any individual worry about what a pollster thinks, when that individual knows the pollster is going to call a lot of people in any given day, and when that individual knows more than 40 percent of those called will say they support McCain?

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:48 AM)

McCain's campaign has revealed that he is the candidate of hate, of dirty gutter level politics. America is turning its back on McCain, this is a foregone conclusion. The only question now is how big of a route will this be, how many senate and house seats is the GOP going to lose.

Trickle down failed as an economic policy. Its time we stop pandering to the rich and enact FAIR tax, education and healthcare policies.

Axel, Philadelphia, PA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:48 AM)

The ground game that Obama has is too strong. Not only does he have a TON of volunteers and offices , he has Buden, The 2 Clintons, Bill Richardson, Claire McCaskill, Klobuschar, Kaine, Bayh, Kerry and a HOST of Democrats who are now household names. Who does McShame have???
:Crickets:
Palin???
Heather Wilson???
Rudy 911??
Romney???
PAAALEEASSSEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!

Nj (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:49 AM)

"Just askin’: How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama?"

umm... maybe because the media did exactly what McCain and his simple running mate wanted them to do by feeding into the rhetoric they put out there starting last Sunday about Obama and his terrorist ties.

The real question is why the Obama campaign is being equally blamed for this racial nonsense. Just because McCain's camp is knee deep in this ignorance does not mean Obama's camp is liable as well. The media kills me roping Obama into McCain's madness with this whole racial tone. Excuse me, but last I checked nobody at Obama's rallies are yelling racial slurs and accusing McCain of loose associations. Give me a break! As an Obama supporter, I'm personally tired of McCain's folks doing something and then the media saying "both campaigns" are doing it. No, both campaigns are NOT doing it. Obama would be a fool to bring up in race baiting now, which is why he didn't! Sarah Palin drew first blood when she accused Obama of "palling around with terrorist" last week in her stump speech in California. Go back, check the facts! They started this mess.

All of this nonsense is wearing on the American voter who, like me, feel as if November 4 can't get here fast enough!!

jodi, central jersey (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:50 AM)

"How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama?"

We've gotten there because people like you are either too cowardly to do your jobs or because people like you are to interested in shilling for your employers rather than informing the public.

Absolutely nothing has prevented you or any other reporter from stating the facts: Barack Obama is an American, he's a Christian, and he's a patriotic United States Senator. Yet you do nothing but convey the lies of the opposition.

You and your brethren are cowards. And you are the reason we are where we are today.

The Phantom (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:56 AM)

Better not count on those numbers being correct, If Obamas group ACORN is involved ! They reg. one man 72 times and several children under the age of 10. Not mention thousands of double registers. This group must not be allowed to reg anyone ! If obama wins this election this will be how ! Fraudulent registers and voters. The GOP MUST have people at EVERY voters station checking for Obamas ACORN registations.

Ron, Ohio (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:56 AM)

'We’ve got them just where we want them'

______________________

Yeah right. You will have this strategy for what a few days or a week? Then you will change it again. You are erratic at best. And probably not taking your ptsd meds.

ts mpls, mn (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:58 AM)

What is so bad about a one party rule, as long as it is the Democrats. When they ruled the three branches of government, we brought down the deficit to a surplus and then the Republicans took over again and everything went south again. The Republicans say they are for "Business" when they should say it as it is, they are against anyone that makes less than 1 million a year. After all then they would not get the donations and kick backs that they want!

CA Voter NOT For McCain/Palin (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 9:58 AM)

Nothing Obama says can be beleived ! He is promising the a land of milk and honey that does not exist ! I know people want to believe in that, but let's face reality, it won't happen. Every election the guys promise you the world and deliver on nothing and This time Obama has gone way beyond any other canidate in history with false promises. I foresee a major let down in the our near future ! Believe in Obama and be very disappointed !

Carrie Ft Meyers (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:00 AM)

Oh no, baby. His lead is larger than 10%. These pollsters only call landline telephones. They do not call cell phones. Also, the pollsters do not target large African-American or Hispanic communities. Obama is going to win in a landslide victory over McCain/Palin. America is not going to elect a 72-year-old man and some backwoods hunt critters-for-my dinner chick to the White House.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08

Cheryl Wilson (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:01 AM)

I guess McCain's new tactic-of-the-week will be incite more hatred, fear and smear - but do it respectfully. Does this guy know which end is up anymore?

Brian, Cedar Hill, TX (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:01 AM)

As a Michigander I have got to say Chuck Todd is my idea of a reporter who needs to return to reporting 101. A self proclaimed "EXPERT" in politics Mr. Todd is so slanted Obama and has been throughout the primaries. I will say the last time NBC was so excited about a candidate was when they put Al Gore against the wall and promoted George Bush as they are promoting Obama---Now we all know how well letting the Media elect a president worked. Mr. Todd I really do not think Michigan will go in the Obama Column. You are also the reason I no longer watch NBC.

Caresse Kuhlmann (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:02 AM)

Chuck - I miss Tim Russert so much that I almost cried during last week's second debate. But I wanted you to know that you help alleviate the pain with your thoughtful analysis and precise inquisitiveness. Good job!

Paula, Bradenton, FL (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:02 AM)

Republicans want the rich to get richer,

Democrats want the middle class to get rich

Wayne Raasch

Lissie Tx

wayne raasch (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:02 AM)

here is what I am seeing by doing stats:
Obama will have the leaning states he has right
now but....he will take Colorado-I've Been canvassing
there-No doubt PA-

I say 273 to 265-close numbers but I keep coming
back to these numbers! I am just a voter not smart
like you news media specialist but that is my
take!

Sophia Beck Laramie Wy (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:03 AM)

WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO VOTE REPUBLICAN AFTER THE LAST 8 YEARS..LOOK WHERE THEY LEFT THIS COUNTRY..PATHETIC..AND I SHOULD TRUST THEM AGAIN?
NOT....
WHEN YOU RESORT TO CHARACTER ASSASINATION AND LIES WHICH ARE BREEDING FEAR , YOU LOST IT ALREADY..JOHN MCCAIN YOU SHOWED POOR JUDGEMENT IN ALMOST EVERYTHING YOU HAVE DONE SO FAR..JUST PICK UP YOUR MARBLES AND YOUR PATHETIC VP AND GO HOME..

BOB QUINN, LANCASTER,PA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:03 AM)

Obama may well win, but most people don't know what they're getting. For example, he has voted against extending the Bush tax cuts – even for the middle class, which expire in 2010. This means -for families with taxable income of:
$17,000 - increased taxes of $400
$29,000 - increased taxes of $1,100
$72,000 - increased taxes of $2,300
$251,000 - increased taxes of $6,900
Source - www.smartmoney.com/tax
When he says that people making under $250,000 won't see a tax increase, he means no “additional” increase above the already scheduled increase at the end of 2010. And if you have anything that sells at a profit (capital gains), there will be more taxes on that as well. McCain voted to make these tax cuts permanent, but the Democrats in Congress voted against it. Watch your wallets when Obama gets in and he has control of Congress. And just think of all the other possibilities – Full amnesty for all illegal immigrants, including free health care at taxpayer expense and taxpayer subsidized mortgages for the poor, and that's just for starters.

Roy Wilson (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:04 AM)

<<"My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.">>

This is ludicrous on so many levels. This race wasn't even supposed to be close considering "Operation Chaos" in the spring, which was supposed to defeat the Democrats even before the campaigns began.

Secondly, McCain has been a tidal wave of bad decisions, and yet they've "got them where we want them."

If it looks like manure and smells like manure...

Erik, Mechanicsburg, PA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:04 AM)

Oh boy another town hall meeting where older white Americans who have been scared and conned by talk radio and Mccain ads can call Obama a Muslim Arab terrorist loving liberal from Chicago.

I hope President Obama uses some of those presidential powers given to him by Bush and Republican congress to round up these kind of people and reeducate them to the real America versus the racist ignorant one they all seem to desire.

Fedup (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:05 AM)

FR: "How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama?"

Yes.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:05 AM)

The Clinton's and Biden's yesterday were great! I thought all of the speeches were great. I was a little annoyed with Bill pointing out just how hard Hillary has worked for Obama (seemed like a push for 2012); but her speech was awesome and I love Joe.

I think all of the speculation and advertising and polling and yard sign measurement sticks are representative of heightened interest and even an elevated stake in the outcome. PEOPLE ARE MORE PLUGGED IN THAN THEY'VE EVER BEEN. And they should be. Bush campaigned that he was a uniter, not a divider - and our takeaway has been that he really isn't good with math equations (or interest rates, or DOW industrials). He is not a detail guy and his legacy will reflect that he fleeced us all. While I like to believe that McCain is different, he has not shown us ONE SINGLE THING in the last two months of this campaign that differentiates himself from Bush. He is saying anything (and I mean ANYTHING) to find something that sticks and resonates; but none of it has anything to do with the reality most of us are seeing on the ground. He is not a reformer, he is not different, his biggest decision is a gigantic GAMBLE. I am sick of politicians gambling with my future.

I am voting for Obama because I believe in myself and the ability of other like minded Americans to CHANGE the direction this country is heading. Fundamentally CHANGE it, from the bottom up. Obama has the only message that is calm, rational, reasonable and intelligent. McCain is just more of the same, to me.

Clara Kansas City, MO (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:06 AM)

RE: Just Askin'
Many in the media has stated that McCain cannot be held responsible for comments made by his supporters.
In my view, it much the same as a parent uttering a profanity and not seeing the impact until his/her child repeat the same. Somehow it seems uglier when spoken by one who expects you to be the role model. This is also true of making inflammatory remarks. When those who perceive a candidate as a role model make similar remarks, their remarks can be even uglier than what was originally intended.

Linda, Scottsburg, IN (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:06 AM)

Go Obama

Nancy (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:07 AM)

for some time, FR has been holding Obama's EV-now estimate at 264, even though "toss-ups" are in some cases now clearly Obama leanersby FR's own rules. More independent pollsters--538, pollster.com. realclear are more accurate at this point in the race. While FR and CNN's John King of Magic Wall fame want to be conservative--fair enough--, be sure that your conservativism is about statistics and volatility inside the polls, and not a position of political conservatism, or some fear of reprisal from the right. Call it straight; we all know that what the polls give, the next polls taketh away. Get off the dime, Todd!

dwmulenex, savannah, ga (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:07 AM)

ADS ... I'm in Northern Virginia, I watched football (on a couple channels) and baseball last night and both had Obama ads at least 3 times an hour. No McCain ads at all. I have not see a McCain ad since Thursday night here.

Stephen, Alexandria, VA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:08 AM)

I know Bush only has a couple of months left in office but why hasn't anyone suggested his early removal? Richard Nixon was impeached for screwing the nation and had a higher approval rating. Yet in 2008 Bush screwed the world (economy) and let's not forget, he invaded a sovereign nation in 2003 whose President was lynched due to the evasion. The misguided, vengeful Bush could do this but couldn't catch a terrorist on a camel the -- mastermind of 9/11 -- Osama Bin Laden. We are more vulnerable now than ever. Removing Bush from office would be the appropriate salutation for his performance in the White House.

Brad in Olympia (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:08 AM)

How brazen can you get - both candidates on the republican presidential ticket have been investigated and convicted of unethical behavior. Where's their next candidate coming from - Leavinworth prison?

Brian, Cedar Hill, TX (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:09 AM)

There could be a "Bradley effect" who knows for sure. I have been assuming the any racist effect will be offset by the increase in voter registration and increase voter turnout. In fact these two factors will far override any Bradley effect.

McCain is stuck in the ditch. If he attacks Obama's character, the right-wingnuts will again create problems for McCain. He can't talk about the economy because he and Phil Gramm created much of this mess by wanting deregulation.

Nationwide vote prediction: Obama 51.5% McCain 46.5% Barr et.al. the rest.

Ron Indiana (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:09 AM)

I just saw Sarah Palin in Wallmart! I knew right there I can not vote for her! Wallmart pays there employess horrible wages and doesn't even pay them medical benefits! They import junk from China! Wallmart intimidates their employees and tells them who to vote for! Wallmart makes a ton of money and than does not pass it onto their employees! Plus why dosn't Sarah have socks on that baby?

Dawn Pittsburgh (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:10 AM)

This election reminds me of my last few weeks of pregnancy--JUST GET IT OVER!!!

Kim W Virginia Beach, VA (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:10 AM)

hate is not part of the presidential election, it is a part to my past as african american, hate that is racial then but not now, inspire togetherness in the election process and support our next ELECE president.........BARACK OR mCcAIN

TEREST SIMS (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:10 AM)

John and the Republicans have a lot more to worry about than losing West Virginia. They've lost all trust of the American people with a Trillion Dollar war and screwing the economy up enough requiring a Trillion Dollar bailout.

It's been one big money grab by corporations, and people are sick of it.
http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/timeline-part-i-bush-cheney-war-and-oil/

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/09/28/barack-obama-john-mccain-and-sarah-palin-political-youtube-viewing/

infogiant, austin, tx (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:10 AM)

TEREST SIMS (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:11 AM)

Obama needs to make a visit to WV. Spend one day here and he'll have us. A little attention goes a long long way.

M L ee Burton WV (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:11 AM)

The McCain/Palin supporters shout "terrorist" at the rallies because Palin has put Obama's name and the word terrorist in the same sentence repeatedly. Its the same way Bush made a connection between Iraq and 9/11, by repeatedly inserting both into the same sentence. Do that enough and Obama becomes a terrorist and Iraq was behind 9/11. Its a very deliberate tactic.

Dave K. Seattle Wa (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:12 AM)

Better re-check North Dakota. The Fargo Forum has Obama leading 45% to 43% in the state. Looks like a possible toss up to me

Obamafan, Fargo, ND (Sent Monday, October 13, 2008 10:12 AM)

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