First thoughts: Obama expands his lead
Posted: Monday, October 13, 2008 9:26 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Obama expands his lead: Three weeks until Election Day, Obama now holds a more than 100-vote lead in NBC's latest electoral map. He's ahead of McCain 264-163, with 111 votes in the Toss-up column. Last week, Obama was up 264-174. Our changes: We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Something's happening in West Virginia -- yes, West Virginia -- because of the economic angst. Obama's been buying a bunch of TV time in markets that bleed into West Virginia, and the numbers have been closing for a time. By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas be far behind? Both are states that can show Democratic movement in a bad economic environment.
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the current state of the national polls and the importance of the battleground states in a possible comeback for John McCain.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
***
'We’ve got them just where we want them': With McCain down in the national polls -- 10 points (53%-43%) in the latest Washington Post/ABC survey -- McCain’s campaign says the Arizona senator will unveil a new stump speech that casts him as the underdog and as a fighter. "Let me give you the state of the race today,” he is expected to say. “We have 22 days to go. We’re six points down. The national media has written us off. Sen. Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.” More: "What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I’ve never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."
*** Running against one-party rule: It's not quite a Bulworth moment (something many Republicans were kinda hoping for), but McCain is trying to goose the "can he comeback?" storyline with a speech that reminds voters of one-party rule in DC. With some Republicans (most notably Lee Terry of Nebraska) trying to latch on to Obama's coattails, it appears the mixed message that some feared might happen is now going to happen. With Republicans up and down the ballot all fending for themselves, does the party risk giving off the desperation whiff? Where are the stories of Democrats running away from Obama? And while we're not seeing Republicans fleeing from McCain just yet, they all are fleeing from Bush Republicanism as their only means of surviving. As we noted last week, it was only a matter of time before both the top of the GOP ticket would start running against the Dem Congress and the Republicans down the ballot would start running on the "check on Obama" message.
*** Obama flies to the rescue: McCain isn’t the only one with a new speech. Per his campaign, in Toledo, OH today, Obama will deliver a “major policy address” to announce his rescue plan for the middle class. Obama is not going to let go of the economic message at all these days; he knows he can't afford to get distracted by anything else. The question, of course, is whether what he's promising is believed. Right now, with a changing economic landscape in Washington and Wall Street that's measured by the Dow, does any proposal by any politician get taken seriously by the public right now.
*** Money to burn? This past weekend, your First Read team had the luxury of watching some TV in the DC area (Northern Virginia). While enjoying college football games on Saturday, the Sunday morning news shows, NFL games, and 60 Minutes, we probably viewed 30-40 Obama TV ads. And get this -- we didn’t see a single McCain advertisement. Likewise, NBC’s Mark Hudspeth and NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones noticed all the Obama TV ads running in the Chicago media market (which bleeds in Indiana and Wisconsin). And our friends at CMAG tell us that Obama is also buying Louisville, KY in order to target Southern Indiana. That said, other members of your First Read team were in the Denver and Madison media markets over the weekend, and we saw our share of McCain/RNC ads; Obama had approximately a 3-2 advantage. Still, we’ve got to ask this question again: Just how much money did Obama raise in September? And given that we didn’t see a single McCain ad in the DC media market, how much of McCain’s $84.1 million is remaining?
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Is two better than one? Once again today, McCain will be joined by Palin as he holds two different rallies in the battleground state of Virginia (in Virginia Beach and Richmond). As we’ve seen, this joint campaigning produces big crowds for the GOP team. But is it coming at price? The
Wall Street Journal reports that Obama, Biden, and Michelle Obama have held 95 separate events in battleground states since the fall campaign officially began. By comparison, McCain, Palin, and Cindy McCain had done just 55 separate events. “The effect: The Democrats are being seen much more often, in free news coverage and in paid advertising, in the states that will determine the winner,” the Journal writes. By the way, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy notes that today will be McCain’s second campaign event in Virginia since the general election began. And when he visits North Carolina later today, it will be his first stop in the Tar Heel State since May.
***
Just askin’: How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama? And one other thing: With his decision late last week to pull his negative advertising in the increasingly nasty Senate race in Minnesota, is Norm Coleman seeing something here that goes beyond his own Senate race (where he's been relentlessly negative against Al Franken)? Coleman is running in a battleground state that is seeing a lot of negative ads on the presidential level. Has the collective tone hurt Coleman and other Republicans down the ballot? Or is this unique to Coleman? If his numbers start improving in Minnesota, watch for other Republicans to echo his decision. It may be that voters -- feeling major anxiety -- are reacting downright angrily to the same old, same old, in political campaigning.
*** The bailout plan: What exactly did Congress end up passing? With the Treasury secretary changing the terms of the $700 billion that he has in his arsenal yet again, what is this doing to members of Congress who feel as if that Paulson sold them something different? Doesn't Paulson's latest attempt to change how he uses the money only help to defend those members who wanted to vote against the deal in order to take more time? What was the rush anyway?
Video: CNBC’s Erin Burnett and NBC’s Tom Brokaw discuss the impending market open on “Meet the Press.”
***
Debunking the Bradley effect: For every pundit that wants to go on the air and talk (er, bloviate) about the so-called "Bradley Effect,"
please read this thoughtful analysis by one of the campaign pollsters who actually participated in that famous '82 campaign. Let's not get carried away with this storyline since it is based more in myth than fact. Writes Tarrance: The other reason I reject the Bradley Effect in 2008 is because there was not a Bradley Effect in the 1982 California Governor's race, either. Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call."
*** On the trail: McCain and Palin, in Virginia, hit rallies in Virginia Beach and Richmond, and in between McCain holds a solo town hall in Wilmington, NC. Obama, in between debate prep, has an event in Toledo, OH. Biden campaigns in New Hampshire, visiting Rochester and Manchester. Michelle Obama stumps in Rochester, MN. And Hillary Clinton attends a rally for Obama in Horsham, PA.
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 2 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 22 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 99 days
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