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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



The final debate: The preview

Posted: Wednesday, October 15, 2008 9:20 AM by Carrie Dann

Long Island’s Newsday previews tonight’s debate. "McCain, down in the polls, has said that he will take the character fight directly to Obama, who has largely dismissed McCain's charges and has chosen instead to focus on the economy. The debate will focus on domestic issues, which polls show favor Obama."

Video: NBC News political director Chuck Todd discusses the latest poll results and weighs in on what Sen. John McCain needs to do to win key battleground states.

The AP's Sidoti says, "Their face-off comes as Obama widens his lead in typically Democratic states and campaigns with an air of optimism about his prospects, while McCain seeks a way to gain ground and finds himself defending traditionally Republican states with less than three weeks left in the race."

The New York Daily News calls tonight "do or die" for McCain. The News's DeFrank looks at six scenarios that could change the direction of the race, including a stock market recovery, crisis abroad, a "big-time Obama goof," a "bold McCain gesture" (like "dumping Sarah Palin" or announcing Democratic secretaries), if younger voters stay home, or a terrorist attack.  

Will McCain bring up Ayers? "McCain appeared to take the bait yesterday. 'I was astonished to hear him say that he was surprised I didn't have the guts to do that, because the fact is the question didn't come up in that fashion,' McCain told a St. Louis radio station. 'I think he's probably ensured it will come up this time.'"

The New York Times’ Nagourney says that as McCain and Obama “prepare for their third and final debate Wednesday at Hofstra University on Long Island, it appears there might be a more instructive prism through which to judge these encounters: not as a competition between two men but as a prolonged tryout for Mr. Obama. Unlike Mr. McCain, a fixture in American politics for nearly a generation — he has appeared on ‘Meet the Press’ 51 times, second only to Bob Dole among politicians, while Mr. Obama has appeared 8 times — Mr. Obama entered these debates at once famous and unknown. Polls suggested that he stirred an ambiguous and slightly suspicious response from much of the public, an impression Mr. McCain has sought to encourage.”

“[I]t could turn out that the Obama candidacy has become what many Democrats and had hoped and Republicans feared: a reprise of Ronald Reagan’s candidacy in 1980. Mr. Reagan struggled until he met President Jimmy Carter in their only debate at the end of the campaign and voters decided they were comfortable enough with Mr. Reagan to take a chance on a relative newcomer to politics.”

Newsday reports on the $3.5 million price tag to Hofstra for tonight's debate. "Corporate sponsors of the Commission on Presidential Debates will help pay for much of tonight's showdown - a relationship that has drawn sharp rebukes from good government groups. But local donors played a critical early role, providing an infusion of cash and confidence that can often make the difference in whether an institution gets a debate, say current and former debate hosts."

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Will McCain bring up Ayers?
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I for one will be shocked if he does.  If the Senator from Arizona does indeed bring up Ayers (or Wright, or ACORN, etc.), it will be his last-ditch effort to change the subject from the economy to some political distraction.  That is the only chance that he has to win this election.

If he does make that move, I will have lost all respect for a man that -- despite differences of opinion on a wide range of topics -- I once held in very high regard.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Go ahead Blinky McKeating Five bring up Ayers, or Acorn, or terrorists or voodoo. Senator Obama's connections with questionable associations are so old, so weak and so not relevant it will only turn the mirror on your adultering, your lobbyist deals, your fake military heroism, and your angry temperamental demeanor.  Read the Rolling Stone article The Make Believe Maverick....that's the real John McCain.
The Final Debate and final breath of John McSame..
It's time to hold McCain and Palin responsible for their campaign...every bit of it..the smears, the up and down, all over the place, lack of message, "erratic" stategy...I am tired of the media's woe is John McCain and Sarah Palin, captives of their handlers.
I have no interest in a President and Vice President who won't take responsibility for their own choices.
Let the Debate begin....
Ask McCain about the head of his transition team being a former lobbyist for Saddam Hussein. John Kerry nailed it last night on Maddow; McCain's had way more shady associations than Obama simply by virtue of being in DC so long.
Obama needs to ask McCain why we should believe that the ONLY TICKET IN US HISTORY in which BOTH candidates have been found guilty of ethics violations BEFORE the election is actually going to "reform" and "clean up" Washington.

I mean seriously, a report just came out this weekend which concluded that PALIN ABUSED HER POWER, and yet this very team is trying to make us believe that if we elect them they will eliminate such practices in the White House?
I hope McCain is able to expose Obama for the liar that he is...

Can wait until the 38% who never pay taxes get their tax "welfare check" as part of the 95% of us getting a tax break.

better get used to the welfare word again because once he collapses small businesses...the unemployment lines will be long.

But after all...I guess it will be good for all of us to be oppressed...it makes it that much easier for the government to have control over us.
McCain will be slinging mud big time tonight, because all through his campaign he and Palin has wallowed in the mud, and that is all he has left. He/his campaign has been called eratic but I call it delusional.
Tonight is Obama's debate as the last two favored McNasty.  The topic is the economy and Obama owns that lock stock and barrel. If McNasty brings us Ayers he will lose.  Obama is bound to have a great answer as he was practicing his debate yesterday while McNasty was out flapping his tired old gums.

McNasty made the big mistake to run towards his base instead of the Conventional Wisdom of running to the center in the general election.  What a bunch of idiot losers he has running his campaign.  Oh yeah they're all lobbyist elitists.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
I don't think it matters what McCain does tonight, he's spiraling and it's too late to turn it around.  He's made too many mistakes, and the negativism just doesn't work anymore with the American people.  The Palin pick was seen for exactly what it was, more pandering - this time to women, and that didn't work either.
I can't wait for the deabte and hopefully McCain will bring up Ayers and be a man about the situation, so we can move on.  

This will only show Aemerica how stupid McCain is.  Obama was 8 years old when that occured.  Won't that make McCian look like an idiot?  I am waiting on a good laugh!
Does anyone actually think Obama's not ready for McCain's Ayers, ACORN, Wright et al. accusations?

Does anyone think Obama was not ready at the 1st debate to respond?

Does anyone think Obama was not ready in the 2nd debate?

Why do you think Obama called out McCain for not accusing him man-to-man during the last debate?

Why do you think Biden said the same thing?

Obama has set up McCain and McCain will fall for the ploy and McCain will seal his own fate for his defeat!
Obama and Biden used a playground taunt to get McCain to bring on the character attacks. And McCain will take the bait, even after knowing that the character attacks have already backfired on him.

I'm just amazed to watch this drama play out. McCain is such a tragic figure, he seemingly knows he's about to do something stupid and just can't help himself.
float like a butterfly and sting like a bee will leave mccant wandering around in a daze, not that that is usual for mcdizzy, just like his last debate.  mccant will be on the seat of his pants yelling fight fight fight.
Well, well, well.  John McLiddy has a problem with Senator Obama's neighbors.  I have a problem with Charles Keating, adultery,gambling and ethics investigations!
I'm voting for Obama/Biden for a change to an ethical administration.
'I think he's probably ensured it will come up this time.'"
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Which, in John McCain-ese, means there's about a 70/30 chance McCain won't bring up the topic at all.

Senator McCain has shown that he has no core system of beliefs to fall back on.  He has been lurching all over the place for months- and nobody is really certain what he stands for, at this point.  His "Maverick" mantra only means that he is unpredictable- not a preferred characteristic during these volatile times.

When the theme of the evening is "Which John McCain will show up tonight?", how can the American people be expected to have any confidence in his "leadership"?

John McCain’s record on the economy is much worse than no record at all. Would you go hunting with Dick Chaney?
Prevent Price-Gouging During Emergencies Amendment (like oil)

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_keyvote_detail.php?cs_id=V3704&can_id=53270

McCain said NO..To "Prevent" Oil companies price gougers..McCain said no..go ahead and gouge...
McCain would surely be foolish to bring up Ayers after giving the Obama campaign plenty of time and warning to prepare a response that is not offensive yet convincingly dismissive.

McCain has been quick to change directions this season, so one wonders if he would still be battling with himself during the debate whether to attack or not in this last debate.
It matters not one iota what McCain does in tonight's debate.  

When Obama launches his half hour NBC and CBS prime time PRE-INAUGURAL STATE OF THE UNION speech a week before the vote - and that is EXACTLY what it is - his presidency will be a fait accompli, if it already isn't.

Kind of reminds me of Bush publicly assembling his cabinet before the Florida vote count debacle was finished.

Look Presidential.  Good strategy.  
If McCain goes the character assassination route tonight, it's going to be the equivalent of a car slamming into a brick wall.  Obama's cool will prevail.
Senator McCain now gets to reap the whirlwind. More cheap shots and negativity will aggravate his own negatives, any really startling attempt at a game-changer will be seen as a desperate stunt, and a low-key performance won't change the trend of the electorate toward Obama.
This Country has learned its lessons of the past 8 years, and we realize that what we need is not someone of average or below intellect. We need someone who is cerebral and possesses foresight, who is diverse and can relate to such diversities, who is truly about the people and whose fulfillment comes from sincerely serving others...

Obama has spent his entire adult life serving people... Not because he's had to, but because it's what's in him... It's what he's made of. And for the Repugnants to suggest otherwise is simply distasteful, as well as an insult to all who truly values the good of people.

This movement is too strong...
The times are too urgent...
And the youth of this Nation has proven to be wiser than its elders, for "we didn't create this mess, we inherited it".

We would be fools as a Nation to continue down the same dark paths of the past, expecting change to come...

Change is but 20 days away.

Obama/Biden 08
I agree dropping Sarah Palin would have been a good idea two weeks ago. Now, he has to dance with the one he brought. Even if she has no knowledge of people who do not look like her.
If the issue of consorting with domestic terrorists is raised by Sen. McCain at tonight's debate, Sen. Obama could draw on two counter punches.  The first would be all of the McCain supporters who now revere Chuck Colson who served time for crimes committed during the Watergate era and who now is a born-again Christian who has created a prison ministry.

The second is a hero of the Republican far-right and another Watergate player - G. Gordon Liddy - who served five years in prison for serious felonies, who is unrepentent and who has a daily radio talk show that he uses to push a radical far-right agenda.  A recent guest on that show praised Liddy as a true patriot.  That guest was Sen. McCain.

'Terrorist' Ayers is now a PhD professor of Education at the University of Illinois, Chicago. Colson is a minister. Liddy is a talk show host.  During the Viet Nam era each was a quite different person than he is today.  One major difference between them, however, is that Ayers is the only one of the three to not have been convicted of a crime and the only one of the three not to serve time in a Federal prison.
SENATOR MCCAIN, DID YOU OR DID YOU NOT STEAL 2 TOWLES FROM THE HOLIDAY INN, IN PEORIA, ILLINOIS ON OCTOBER 12 TH.? A SIMPLE YES OR NO . WOULD YOU PLEASE REPEAT THE QUESTION.
Obmama will win this one too!!!! He has what it takes to be one the greatest presidents this country has ever seen.
I hope the Ayers thing comes up and that Obama makes it as it is - nothing.  

Good article by Thomas Frank in the WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122402888900234543.html
McCain is going down, no matter if he wins or looses tonight. His plan to recuperate current economic condition by buying bad mortgages with people's money will take him down. As a tax payer I feel like cheated if this plan ever leaves McCain's living room. Honestly speaking, to help those in need is a good deed indeed but this does not mean govt should bailout those folks who are living beyond their means with my tax $$$. I don't want additional $1000 as a tax break that McCain has proposed as it if of no use to me if economy goes bad & i'm left without a job in upcoming years. I would rather pay more taxes to retain my job and get my paychecks keep coming to me than save some pennies on my taxes and loose everything that i have.

I like to see the economy grow as this provides me with better future oportunities to live a comfortable life and looking at the current figures of $10+ trillion of debt & people loosing their jobs, all these makes wonder about my future and this country's future in coming years. Sometime I feel being an educated hardworking professional is not that good as people like can fortel what lie ahead of us in terms of current economic conditions that this country will be going through, and believe me this is scary.

In the election year, I believe people of this great nation should pick a candidate who has a realistic approach towards fixing this country's economy. After all what good a $1000 savings on tax break if it endangers your source of bread n butter in long haul.
"Will McCain bring up Ayers? "McCain appeared to take the bait yesterday. 'I was astonished to hear him say that he was surprised I didn't have the guts to do that, because the fact is the question didn't come up in that fashion,' McCain told a St. Louis radio station. 'I think he's probably ensured it will come up this time.'"

It seems to me that Barack Obama and Joe Biden have dared McCain to bring this up to Barack's face.  I'm sure they have prepared for it and hope that McCain takes the bait.  Given McCain's pugnacious nature, I'm sure he will.  He'll come across as the school yard bully that he is and it will clinch the victory for Obama.
McCain, you were unfortunately imprisoned during the years that college students were protesting the Vietnam war.  We were trying to get it ended because we saw so many of our friends die there, or return home, damaged.  Remember the students who were jailed for protesting?  Remember Kent State?  It was not easy or safe to protest during that era.  Ayers was just one of us, going farther -- too far -- in his protests.  Since that  time he has tried to redeem himself, and has become an educated person who works for his community.  When I remember the friends I lost in Vietnam, I too wish I had done more to end that war.
You were intimate friends - vacationed with - Keating, who went to jail for his activities that robbed so many Americans of their savings.  You tried to protect him from prosecution.  You were censured for your involvement.
McCain, I think you have more to explain than Obama.  
From what I have read tonight's debate is supposed to center on domestic issues -- like what each candidate is going to do to help Main Street get back on its feet -- and yet this column has said that McCain will probably continue his attack on Obama.  
I have read both candidates' economic plans and recoginize that McCain's plan takes parts of Obama's, but is overall weaker than what Obama has proposed.  I have already decided who I am voting for but would like to see McCain actually 1) bring up something that is innovative and original; 2) give the American people who are making $50k or less a year something that would help their money go further; and 3) respect himself, Obama AND the voting public enough to NOT bring up any of the lies and half-truths that have been the mainstay of his campaign for far too long.


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