A crazy, compressed season
Posted: Thursday, October 16, 2008 12:07 AM by firstread
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Believe it or not, after some 40 debates, the 2008 presidential debate season has come to a close. Remarkably, the country is only getting three debates for the general election, while they were treated to over 35 for the primaries.
This is a point that I don't think we tired members of the press emphasize enough, but what does it say about our presidential election system that we spent 15 months on the primaries and approximately 75 days for the general (conventions to Election Day)? Here we are at one of the most critical junctures in American history and we're cramming six months of a general election into six weeks? Crazy.
Now, as for the debate, supporters of McCain feel great and supporters of Obama feel relieved. Translation: McCain was aggressive and Obama didn't commit any major mistakes.
I don't think McCain accomplished the major goal of disqualifying Obama as president while also not raising his negatives. He was certainly aggressive, and many a supporter was probably heartened by some of his relentless hits. But did he make any gains with the middle?
Time and again Wednesday, Obama went out of his way to find a center-right watch word or phrase (tax cuts, life, responsibility, charter schools, tort reform) to defend himself or make a point. McCain spent a lot of time talking to his current supporters, I didn't hear him making a move to the middle on many issues. It's as if both candidates were trying to win Indiana or West Virginia tonight, that's not good for McCain.
And the tax conversation may be one of the bigger misreads of this debate season. Taxes and spending are way down the list of issue importance in current polls. Sure, McCain's on the right side of the issue, it's just not a priority with voters right now and I think some may struggle connecting taxes to the current economic problems, particularly since taxes are relatively low.
The best hit tonight for McCain was his introduction to the country of "Joe the plumber." McCain mentioned him no fewer than 20 times and certainly guaranteed a day 2 storyline that's controlled by his campaign since many in the media will be seeking out "Joe" for his debate take.
For a campaign that strives to win a news cycle, I'm guessing the McCain campaign will be pleased tomorrow.
As for the big pic, it's hard to see how this debate changed the trajectory of this race. It's now clear, for posterity, that Obama won the debate season. McCain won the convention season and that got him in the game, but the combination of the massive economic downturn with the debates has put McCain in as deep of a hole as any nominee has been this late in the process since Bob Dole. The map continues to look more favorable to Obama than McCain. But it's now in the hands of the voters. There's not much more information left to learn.
