Battleground: Narrow-victory scenario
Posted: Friday, October 17, 2008 9:02 AM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under:
States
The New York Times: “Confronting an increasingly bleak electoral map, top aides to Senator John McCain said Thursday that they were searching for a ‘narrow-victory scenario’ and would focus in the final weeks on a dwindling number of states, using mailings, telephone calls and television advertisements to try to tear away support from Senator Barack Obama… ‘The scenario for winning for us is a narrow-victory scenario,’ [McCain strategist Steve] Schmidt said. ‘The fact that we’re in the race at all — within striking distance with a 5 percent right track — is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong.’”
Also in the story, Obama manager David Plouffe says that -- outside of Iowa and New Mexico -- Colorado and Virginia are the two states he believes “that Mr. Obama had the best chance of pulling from the Republican column.” Plouffe also says that they’re eyeing West Virginia.
COLORADO: Democrats now outnumber Republicans in Arapahoe County in this state, 118,026 to 113,670, with 109,397 unaffiliated voters. Back in November 2004, however, Republicans were ahead, 133,885 to 106,690. In sum, Democrats have gained 11,336 voters (a 26% increase), while Republicans have lost 20,215 (a 20% decrease). That's a 31,000-vote difference in a place where Bush won by 9,000 votes in 2004.
Here’s another fascinating stat: "Nearly half of the state’s registered voters have requested ballots by mail, compelling the Obama and McCain campaigns to kick-start their get-out-the-vote efforts — and devise new and imaginative ones. All across the state, the traditional Election Day sprint by campaign workers has changed into a nearly monthlong marathon, made all the more pressing by the tightness of the race."
Both McCain and Palin will hit the Centennial State next week.
Uh-oh. The Denver Post reports: "Colorado is among the least-prepared states to deal with potential voting-system meltdowns on Election Day, a report released Thursday says. The report -- from the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University's School of Law, Common Cause and the Verified Voting Foundation -- looked at four areas of preparedness in all 50 states. Those included polling-place contingency plans, ballot accounting and reconciliation requirements, use of a verifiable paper trail and whether the state conducted post-election audits of paper records. Colorado was among 10 states that received the worst rankings of ‘needs improvement’ or ‘inadequate’ in three of the four categories. The others were Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia."
FLORIDA: McCain's trip to address a heavily Hispanic audience in Miami isn't exactly a stretch out of the candidate's comfort zone, even as he struggles to net indie voters. “ ‘I'm not going to say it's a pilgrimage to the Holy Land, but basically he's going to the cradle of the base,’ said Republican state Rep. J.C. Planas, who represents nearby Westchester.”
Students and minorities are among those facing the biggest voting registration problems in central Florida.
INDIANA: Per the Indy Star, the number of absentee ballots cast in the first week of early voting tops 60,000. More: "Nearly 27,000 absentee votes have been cast in counties that usually vote Republican. Those tend to be rural and suburban areas with smaller populations. In counties that do not have a clear pattern, 14,276 early votes were cast in the first week."
Twenty-five thousand people are expected in Indianapolis to attend Palin's Noblesville rally today.
NORTH CAROLINA: Early voting in North Carolina is underway, and lines are surprising some poll workers.
OHIO: The Plain Dealer lays out the details of the unfolding legal flap over 200,000 newly registered voters in Ohio.
The Boston Globe continues its Ohio series, in Shawnee, Southeast of Columbus. "A lot of folks in the Shawnee area seem to feel the same way. It's a mixture of fatalism about their station in life and cynicism that a new president will make any meaningful difference in their lives. Things are pretty bad, and they have no hope that Barack Obama or John McCain will do a darn thing about it.
"Shawnee and its fellow coal towns are known as the Little Cities of Black Diamonds. Fires are said to still burn in the old underground mines, but above ground the cities' spark has long been extinguished. There's still a mine or two operating in the area, but what's left largely are the industry's remnants, both human and environmental. A milky, acidic substance flows out of an old mine entrance near New Straitsville; the signs warn not to touch it."
WEST VIRGINIA: Obama’s now up on the air in this state. The AP notes: "Obama is carrying his campaign into traditionally Republican states, spending the next few days in Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. Yesterday, he bought airtime to run ads all across West Virginia, which Bush won twice and is dominated by white voters. In a sign that pocketbook concerns are trumping any prejudices, a recent AP poll showed that Obama has inched up among whites with no college education while McCain has lost ground."
