First thoughts: Groundhog Day?
Posted: Friday, October 17, 2008 9:14 AM by Carrie Dann
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Groundhog Day potential? Is it possible that the next 18 days basically contains the same storyline? Obama has been telling supporters not to get complacent, as he did yesterday. (“For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire.”) Meanwhile, does McCain begin channeling his inner Harry Truman? (“My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.”) One thing is for sure: If the story remains unchanged over the next 18 days, that’s not good news for McCain and the Republican Party.
*** What’s “likely” and what isn’t: Of course, any changes in the storyline are bound to become big news, and that’s why Drudge’s “Gallup Shock: 49 Obama, 47 McCain With Likely Voters” is getting lots of buzz today. But here’s a bit of cold water on that. First, this comes from Gallup’s Daily Tracking poll, and Obama is up here among registered voters by six points (49%-43%). Second, Gallup is also now presenting two “likely voter” models -- 1) a traditional one that essentially assumes an electorate like that from 2004 and 2) an expanded one that assumes a bigger turnout, which we’re all expecting. Obama’s lead yesterday was two points in the traditional model (49%-47%) and six points in the expanded version (51%-45%), which essentially equals the score among registered voters.
Video: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the McCain campaign's latest tactics against Barack Obama, battleground states and a potential endorsement Sunday on Meet the Press.*** Colin Powell meets the press: In an exclusive interview on Sunday, former Secretary of State Gen. Colin Powell (Ret.) -- who has been courted by both Obama and McCain -- will break his recent silence and share his views on a variety of important issues in a live interview on Meet The Press this Sunday. Be sure to tune in…
*** Going nuts over Acorn, Part III: The GOP finally gets the headline it’s been looking for, courtesy of the AP: “Officials: FBI investigates ACORN for voter fraud.” (But it’s voter-registration fraud, not voter fraud, right AP?) An FBI investigation means the RNC and McCain camp can now use the phrase "FBI investigation" in TV ads. ACORN yesterday released this statement: “ACORN has not been contacted by any federal law enforcement agencies. As it was ACORN that on its own accord brought these issues to the attention of relevant law enforcement officials, we are 110% confident that any legitimate review of ACORN by any law enforcement entity - be it local, state or federal -- will determine that the organization has conducted itself properly.”
*** Registration watch: This stat has to make some Republicans nervous: Democrats now outnumber Republicans in Colorado’s Arapahoe County, 118,026 to 113,670 -- with 109,397 unaffiliated voters. By comparison, back in November 2004, Republicans held the edge here, 133,885 to 106,690. In sum, Democrats have gained 11,336 voters since '04 (a 26% increase), while Republicans have lost 20,215 (a 20% decrease). That's a 31,000-vote difference in a place where Bush won by 9,000 votes in 2004. Here’s another fascinating Colorado stat, courtesy of the New York Times: "Nearly half of the state’s registered voters have requested ballots by mail, compelling the Obama and McCain campaigns to kick-start their get-out-the-vote efforts.
*** Ted Stevens watch: The Alaska senator took the stand in his trial yesterday, and he’ll continue testifying today. As the Washington Post writes, "The trial should conclude by this afternoon, with closing arguments scheduled for Monday. Taking the stand shortly before the end of the day, Stevens traced his background, from his impoverished upbringing and his service as a World War II pilot to his appointment to the Senate in 1968. Stevens is the chamber's longest-serving Republican. His first wife died in a plane crash in 1978, and he married his second wife, Catherine, in 1980." Not only is Stevens for the first sitting US senator to stand trial in nearly 30 years; he’s also doing this while running for re-election.
*** On the trail: McCain, in Florida, holds rallies in Miami and then one in Melbourne. Obama has a rally in Roanoke, VA. Palin campaigns in West Chester, OH, then holds a rally in Noblesville, IN. Biden stumps in New Mexico and holds a rally in Henderson, NV. And Hillary Clinton holds a rally for Obama at Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 18 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 83 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 95 days
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